- QQQ Equailibirum key break will be Monday which will determine which way SPY is going to move. - SOXX / SMH turning from lead bull into lead bear today, weakest sector since Dec 2022. May drag down QQQ if it continues. Will short this sector if it continues on SOXS. - SPY bulls want to see a hourly uptrend form, Bears want to see QQQ bear break Equilibrium...
- QQQ equilibrium pattern is going to be key break for which direction market is going the next couple days, - XLF KRE bear break to new lows will break QQQ equilibrium bear and then drag SPY down even more. - Yellen flip flop - no deposit guarantee yesterday to today it will be. (the more they flip flop back and forth the more we see them as less confident)...
- Looking for a hourly Bear flag on SPY and QQQ after this huge move down. - XLF and KRE top watch to see if we break fear lows/52 week low. Fear would likely come back in if we do break the lows - looking for SOXX/SMH to go from lead bull turning into lead bear - Rate hikes is a head wind more for QQQ then SPY, so after Powell saying no rate cuts this year, we...
If you want a demonstration of the Wave principle in real life look no longer than KRE. It is a textbook example of an impulse wave started on 23 March 20220. Wave almost 61.8% retracement of Wave 1 Extended 3rd wave with a 2.00 multiple of Wave 1 Wave 4 has almost 0.382 retracement of Wave 3. And the most important one: the entire impulse wave is divided...
With major weakness in the banking sector we are still seeing the contagion play out. Some banks are more at risk than others. Based off of a blow out in Credit Default Swaps. The bond market is showing there is tremendous risk in this bank. Just like Credit Suisse CD's blew out befroe the collapse, we are watching COF credit defaults blowout.
- KRE and XLF still in a bear flag territory, Both are closing in on their tightening range and will break very soon either tomorrow or Wednesday. we will get a lot of volume and volatility once this breaks. - QQQ & SPY have a Triple top resistance, if XLF break bull SPY will very likely break that resistance, so will watching all 4 closely. - FOMC Wednesday...
It could get pretty crazy in the markets this week, and it may start on the futures open at 9am AEDT – headlines have been rolling in today and everyone is on edge for answers – it's complex, but I’ll try and explain what we’re looking out for. Let us first focus on the US banks – they are a central focus and really the big issue at hand. EU banks are quite...
There is a common misconception that higher rates are bullish for banks. This is wrong! Banks make money on a spread between short-term bonds 2yr or less and loan out at 10 years or more. Thus when the yield curve collapses as it is doing right now. Bank profits are dwindling as there is less margin for risk-taking when making loans. Dec. 3rd I posted this chart...
While Bank Regulators are trying to put together a package to save FRC First Republic Bank with JPM and Morgan Stanley, other hammered regional banks are looking like a bottom. PACW has a book value of 29.50 and a cash per share value of 17 dollars per share. FDIC Insured deposits account for 40 percent of total deposits, making a run less likely than FRC which...
- PPI data came in better then expected increasing the likelihood of a pause to 50-60% - XLF gapped down new lows but closed around cash open area, meaning there wasnt a lot of bear follow through after the gap down. The first sign bulls want to see is XLF holding its lows and start to bounce or even just going sideways is good for tech bulls. Bears want to see...
- CPI data came in expected today, excpet core is 0.1% hotter market didn't really care since we need something really hot to not get a 0.25bps - PPI data likely will come in expected as well today, since CPI was pretty aligned so technical matter more now - SPX came close to 200 MA today rejected the 3940 area but QQQ is above 200 MA - QQQ and SPX reject...
KBE is in the middle of a beatdown with two of the biggest bank failures in history this week. The share price action is reflecting overall distribution. The moving averages ( SMA 100 and SMA 200) are parellel and not crossing. Today, the price action had a little pullback on the drop and perhaps an early sign of reversal or at least the end of the trend into...
- CPI data tomorrow will likely determine if we can break that triple top on QQQ - money rotating around today to tech sectors no a complete FEAR day where money is leaving the market. - KRE / XLF ETF needs to bounce for SPY to bounce - 0.25bp current priced in at 62%, and a pause at 38% - if we break that triple, im looking for a daily bounce and would liking...
Do you ... fade this move? Pictured here is a long call diagonal with the long leg out in June at the +90 delta, and the short leg out in April at the -30 to synthetically emulate the net delta of a covered call position (i.e., long stock/short call) where the short call of the covered call setup would be at the -40 delta strike. Metrics: Assumption: Neutral*...
Beware if you are planning to short the market on Monday. Market went up after Bear Stearns acquisition was announced on 16 Mar 2008 until after May 2008 when it started going down again.
A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps? -SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge...
Today we saw a systemic risk in the financial sector. The regional banks were hit extremally hard and as a result the Major banks saw sell side liquidation. Where there's one cockroach, there's usually another. Risk in the banking sector is the worst type of risk investors can ask for. Credit liquidity crisis is not something to mess around with. SIVB looks...
XLF is now trailing behind the KRE . This topping formation has now triggered on the daily chart and is showing us there is a tremendous amount of risk in the banking sector. Will we see a small bank blow up which causes contagion?