Longtermtrading
S&P 500 Economic Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?Here's my modest attempt to identify S&P 500 Supercycles.
The chart shows the S&P 500 (monthly bars) since 1872 on a log scale.
Maybe it is not as bad as they say, and we are currently "just" in the Supercycle Wave 2.
Before us would be the longest Wave 3. Hopefully that's true. I can dream, can't I? ;-)
USD/JPY Possible blue sky breakoutA ton upside available on a longer-term USD/JPY play, but is the time ripe for an entry? Personally, I'd wait for a pull back to the lower 111 range or wait for continuation above 111.6 in the form of a buy stop order. Ideally, the pair would pull back to the 110.3 range (support area) and assuming the area holds, can provide a nice high probability setup to the upside.
EUR/USD Short until October of 2019EURUSD has been on a strong downtrend since roughly March of 2018. I believe we will still see about a 1.10% decline to the 1.1200 range in the months ahead. The next S1 Pivot Point is located in the 1.09 range. I don't think we will see it fall this far in 2019. I'm shorting EURUSD based on a long lasting trend. I've put exclamation marks next to the MACD and RSI. I want to point out, that currencies can remain in downtrends for a while, even when they are oversold. I would set your first Profit target at 1.12750, with a stop loss slightly above 1.14 range, say 1.1425, if you don't wish to have this trade open by the end of the year. Adjust your Take Profit and Stop Loss according throughout the duration of the trade. If you will be carrying this trade into 2020, consider a wider stop loss and take profit. Ensure with any long term trades such as this, that you are adequately funded or using very small lot sizes.
#Bitcoin need to find support around 3770 to confirm breakoutSee the chart, the chart tell more then words.
Bitcoin has currently smashed the 21days ema on 3days chart, this has been acting as resistance tru the bear market and if we now can find support there now on the bigger timeframes we might take that as a confirm that the reversal is in, lets see how the chart plays out the next few weeks.
The 21days EMA on 3days was acting as support in the last bullmarket from 2015 - 2018
Bitcoin long term analysis (Monthly)So we have Monthly chart of Bitcoin right here.. It's based on Elliot waves (Left only Fib retracements to make chart look simple).
What I noticed in Bitcoin , it tends to retrace around 0.382-0.5 before resuming trend (which right now is BEARISH ).
Look closely at the fibs, left only 0.382-0.5 for you to see. I'm looking for around 5500 to finish correction up and continue to test our final target of 1200-1400 (Monthly Support).
Also, if you study Bitcoin deeper you can see for example (2013-2015 Bitcoin chart.)
Bull run started at 130, after parabolic move we bottomed out at 154. Look where parabolic trend started and where it ended.. 1000$ is where we started BULL run in March 2017. Bottoming out at 1200$ wouldn't surprise.. We had exact same situation back then!
* In shorted term I expect 4400-4500$ to be strong barrier until we reach ~5500.
Safe trading! :)
Hain Celestial - Correction mode over?The food company, with sales of $ 2.8 billion and 7,800 employees, has already passed the correction phase at $ 25.46 and completing the wave E of 4. The complete previous upward movement has been corrected by more than 61.8% and that is a good trend reversal range.
Hain Celestial specializes in the production of organic and natural products and is currently in a restructuring phase. There is market potential in an increasingly conscious population, and after completion of the restructuring, prices of US $ 90-130 should not come as a surprise over the next 5-8 years. For investors with a long-term horizon, therefore, an entry into this stock should be considered. However, the stop loss should be set at $ 20.06 to reduce the risk.
Greetings from Hanover
Stefan Bode
P.S. If you liked it, talk about it and recommend me.
2618 Buy Setup On Higher TimeframesEURUSD pulled back to 61.80% retracement level and is building support around here. There's was some 16% extension beyond the previous low and currently the parallel median line of this inside set is zoomed, which shows some underlying strength of this pair at this level. It makes sense to accumulate long positions with stops below the current low for longterm holding . A pre mortem approach is necessary as there is always a 40% chance of any trade setup turning bad. The first sign of lower prices would be the current low being taken out . For now, the setup looks plausible.
Dollar Supremacy will be AchievedGold has been around for hundred trillion years. Quarter dollars will be made of 100% gold in the future.
Expect gold to go up and down in completely random fashion and then crash to pre YEAR 1800 levels of .25 peices made of gold. by 2030
large holders of gold i recommend
sell physical storehouses of gold till peoples back are breaking carrying tons of cash in a commodity is bad bad investing.
BTC falls and stays under 6k for 2018?In my view 2018 is somewhat similar to 2014: dump after hype.
2days charts presented. Left is BTC-2014, right it BTC-2018. Purple vertical-line on the left is where I think we are.
Using simple_CCI , Bollinger Bands (which is basically moving average +- standard deviations) and simple_SMI, I think BTC might be now at the point in 2018, where it was at July, 2014.
My loose and biased prediction says that if BTC stays bellow 8.7k for couple more days, than it might go down as low as 6k, and it might stay below 6k for a year. (Yes, it I say that it might stay there for a year: 12mos+-3mos)
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This is NOT a trading advise, just a biased idea of a non-pro-trader, but a stat-fun. Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, and...have fun!
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Publishing this idea, because it feels unlikely, but seems to me this way. I might be super-wrong here, so I am happy to be contradicted, but please use numbers/reasoning, tell me where I am wrong here.
NEO - Can It Make It? Some people may really be wondering...can NEO make it?
This coin undeniably has one of the worst looking charts in crypto. It is well below its prior support and has been slumping down since the August 13th capitulation move by most altcoins. I bought some around $14.70 but sold around $19 to add more to a couple other coins that have better looking long term charts (these coins have also dropped a bit since then. Oh well). The reason why I sold was that it made a lower high after getting rejected at around 0.0030 BTC. While many other alts are still well up from their recent bottoms (showing buying interest), NEO has remained flat. This shows that there is little to no demand for this coin at this time.
However, this can change. There is a chance NEO has a breakout along with the rest of the market when the bull is back (as I've mentioned, I think it has a high probability of being late 2018, early 2019). It could also simply die out. This is a very real possibility with this coin based on indicators, and I would be very careful until it clearly breaks out above any recent highs. See the two possibilities in green on my chart.
USD Linear Chart. As you can see, there are no supports below this level until the single digit range. If we break up, we can target the previous support turned resistance at $70. If we bounce off, and then ultimately break up again, that will be the best case scenario.
USD Log Chart shows how dire the situation is:
This is not financial advice, and I am not a qualified financial advisor. I do not hold a position in this coin right now. This MAY change in the future, but I will be waiting until some sort of clear indicators that investor confidence has returned. I will be updating this occasionally.
-Victor Cobra
EURAUD SELL - LONG TERM SHORTTo retrace to the 0.786 level of fibonacci would mean for price to get all the way up to 1.59949.
4/25/18 (1.61409) on the Daily timeframe, shooting star candle which lead to a massive drop (~860 pips) til around 6/4/18 (1.52747 top of a key zone.)
Historically, this trend repeats itself from the ~1.61409 level very well. From 8/24/15 to 2/11/16 about 5 significant drops occurred resulting in a drop of about 300 pips at a minimum.
9/29/15 rice was at 1.62505. VERY close to the aforementioned high of 1.61409. From that time until 12/3/15 there was a ~1900 pip drop and price went to a low of 1.43479.
Price has consolidated the last 5 hours ranging from around 1.59336 to 1.59023.
I am looking to see if price will reach 1.61409 - 1.60008 for a really nice long term sell.
If price does not reach that level and shows a lot of bearish signs and signals.. I plan to sell it around 1.58895.
My take profit aligns perfectly with the 1.272 level of the fibonacci extension which is 1.50337. I plan to take profit at 1.50657. I will look for a sooner place to take profit and update as I analyze.
Happy trading everyone, let’s milk this bitch!






















