Get started

Lowerhigh

BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern And Next Support Around High 6Ks?BTCUSD update: Price is consolidating across the board and is poised to break lower in my opinion. While bearish momentum dominates in the short term, triangle formations such as the one developing in this market serve as continuation patterns. If I shorted these markets (which I do not), I would be looking for a day trade at the break of 7312. This is just below the low of the previous candle which is an inside bar. What makes situations like this difficult is when you are bullish on the long term. This is why it is so important to separate trade ideas by time frame. This means it is possible to be bearish on a day trade time frame, while simultaneously bullish on a swing or position trade time frame. At S.C., we are long term bullish and are accumulating inventory across a variety of coins during this period of crowd pessimism. There are a number of articles there that explain which coins and our reasoning. Since I am able to separate and categorize my thinking in terms of time frame and strategy, I am able to recognize the short term intent which is not in line with the bigger picture. On the short term, this market is dominated by bears. If price breaks below 7312, I am anticipating the mid 7100's to high 6900's before the next support asserts itself. Keep in mind, price is within a broad support zone that ranges from 8171 to 4983 (.618 support of entire bullish structure relative to the 150 lows). This means it has a lot of room to fluctuate before another low is established. In summary, long term not much has changed. When the crowd hates a market, that is a great time to accumulate at wholesale prices. This does not come without risk though. Someone recently asked me, when you accumulate, where do you place the stop. These are risky instruments that are in a space that is not regulated that same way as traditional markets. If you are in it for the long term, then it is all about risk control though appropriate sizing and the willingness to lose. If you can't lose, you can't win in these markets. As far as the next swing trade long goes, there is no reason to be long at the moment. We will issue a signal for a swing trade long, with specific stop and target on S.C. once the market provides us with a good reason. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
LTCUSD: Nearing Buy Trigger. Why The Limit Order?LTCUSD update: Price retreating from the 140 level as the noise in the coins continues. Now that a second lower high has been established, converging trend lines can be drawn to indicate a descending wedge. Formations like these around significant support zones are places to look for strength. If you read my recent LTC article on S.C., I issued a specific trade call using a limit order under the market. I made this call while price was trading above 137.84. My limit order (see S.C.) still stands. How did I know the market would pull back? I didn't. I am looking to capitalize on a very specific condition that either the market will express, or not. Since BTC has been very noisy recently, I figured let's see if the noise persists. I do know that 132.72 and 125.68 are reversal zone boundaries. These are high probability support areas that price is more likely to find support and retrace from. If I am going to buy with a blind limit order, I would rather do it closer to these levels. The other factor that helps me place an order like this is something called patience. I do not care about missing moves, because I know that opportunities in any financial market are infinite. If the market blew through 140 and never looked back, then I miss the move. Am I losing anything? If you said yes, then you still have much to learn. At this point, the order has never gotten filled. Missing the move is still a possibility, but as you can see, there is a better chance it gets filled soon. Like I wrote on S.C., focus on probability, not profitability and you will find yourself in better trades. If I get filled, I know there is a higher probability that price will find support nearby and retrace toward the 150 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure). I would rather take the risk in the low 130s than at 140. Jumping into a market for the fear of missing a move is a reactive decision. These impulsive decisions are at the core of the herd mentality. Greed and fear are what drive order flow and in order to capitalize on this nature, you must not think in the same terms. By placing an order under the market, I am positioning to benefit from this irrationality. Keep in mind, I can still be wrong and the market can continue much lower, but that is why I have a stop in place. Check S.C. for updates this market.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12
LTCUSD: Lower High Points To Attractive Support Area.LTCUSD update: Lower high formations across the board imply further weakness in these markets. As bearish as this price action may appear, it is a welcome sign for the next swing trade long. The lower high established at 153 is concerning if you are long, but if you saw my recent long term Elliott Wave count that I published on S.C., you will see that the level to really be concerned about is 105. The current bearish retrace is still within a price area that is attractive for broader time horizon longs. The current price has two important levels in play. The 132 and 125 reversal zone boundaries which act as supports. IF price attempts to push lower and fails, that sets up the scenario for a short squeeze. Often these fake outs shake out the weak hands and offer an opportunity to buy from these reactive traders. Keep in mind, IF price does in fact fall through, then these markets are more likely to retest major lows like 105 in this case. In summary, the best thing to do in situations like this is to think like a contrarian and let the market prove itself. If it does prove strength, you should have a plan of action prepared. If it pushes below 125 decisively, then stand aside. If you are managing inventory, there is not much you can do except lighten your position if it is causing you stress. You can always get back in when the market stabilizes. Being mindful of the amount of risk you are exposed to should be your top priority.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
EURUSD – Will Favour Wait for a SHORT to form !A: SUMMARY – Will Position for a SHORT !!. >Month Chart in Downward Channel.. >WEEKLY Chart – FAVOUR a Breakdown of Channel Line 1-WOULD Watch EURUSD Rise up to FIBS 38.2% (1.20503) OR FIBS 50% to FIBS 61.8% ( 1.21190 to 1.21877). DAY CHART : B: This Coming WEEK Analysis: - WAIT for A SHORT Position 1- H4/H1 entry around ZONE 1.20503 (FIBS 38.2%) OR 1.21190 to 1.21877 (FIBS 50% to 61.8%) 2- WATCH for CANDLE Signal / Lower High Exhaustion Candle 3- PREPARE SHORT !! CHEERS .. Stay Nimble-TRADE SAFE !! Let The MARKET DO Its Work-Watch -Stay NIMBLE !!
Education
by jeffreyysl
EURUSD: Wave Overlap Signals Broader Count Adjustment?EURUSD update: Recent price action has been more dramatic since the U.S. dollar has gained strength in recent weeks. It is always a good idea to zoom out during such movements to see how the broader technical outlook is being affected. The most notable change on the broader time frame is the fact that the 1.1955 level was compromised. This is important because it alters the long term Elliott Wave count for this market. According to the rules of an impulse structure, the Wave 4 retrace cannot overlap or enter into the area of Wave 1. On this chart, the primary degree Wave 2 has been adjusted since originally I had it labeled as a Wave 4 of the cycle degree Wave V. In terms of overall trend, the direction is still bullish, but the behavior of a Wave 2 can mean this market has more room to go lower in the near term. It can go as low as the origin of Wave 1 which is in the 1.1550s. Keep in mind, fundamentals drive these markets and one interesting observation that I made when comparing to the GBP or AUD, is that those markets were showing a broader bearish wave count all along while this market was the opposite. Pin pointing an exact reason for this kind of technical conflict is complicated and unnecessary for the type of trading that we do at S.C. anyway. As of now, the immediate momentum is bearish, even in the face of this minor bullish retrace. Price can go as high as 1.2050 (.382 of current bearish structure) before it turns and attempts to test the low. In order for us to issue a long signal at S.C., there has to be a number of structural criteria in place which are not present now. In summary, do not be confused or frustrated when an Elliott Wave count is adjusted. Elliott Wave offers a possible technical road map for a financial market. It does not offer precision, only a possibility that market forces either adhere to, or they don't. It minimizes the number of possibilities into a more practical amount which offers less randomness and more predictability in the long run. If fundamental forces ultimately lead this market along a more bearish path, there will be plenty of signs and adjustments along the way to better anticipate trading opportunities either way. Price discounts all known information in the world at any given moment, and that is why a fundamental analyst and a technical analyst can eventually arrive at the same conclusion. This means you don't always have to know why a market is moving the way it is. Price action offers enough information to make informed decisions, especially for short term strategies.
by MarcPMarkets
1
AUDUSD: Bearish Momentum Takes Price Into Broad Reversal Zone?AUDUSD update: The Dollar is clearly strong across the board, obviously driven by fundamental forces that are weighing on the dollar pairs where it is the counter currency. When it comes to locating swing trade opportunities, it begins with predetermined levels which is part of the best practices that we follow at S.C. When you have a direction in a market as decisive as this one, it is still important not to react, especially when no setup is present. Situations like this offer the opportunity to plan ahead. Momentum is bearish so it is tempting to just open a short position and hope for the best, but if you consider where price is at the moment, you may think twice when it comes to putting on a swing trade. .7500 is a previous low and important psychological support. .7315 is the reversal zone boundary that is proportionate to the .7500 low. Even though bearish momentum is dominant. price is in a high probability reversal area. Knowing this puts you a step ahead of the reactive herd. There is no reversal in place, yet, but if the structure materializes, this is an attractive area for a long swing trade. IF a failed low formation appears, along with a pin bar or some other trigger, a lower risk long opportunity can present itself, even in the face of bearish fundamentals. The first target to consider is the .7579 level (.382 of current bearish swing). Again, this idea is only relevant if a reversal shows up in the current range that is defined by the .7351 boundary. When there is no setup, there is no trade, no matter how obvious a market looks. Levels and setups are the building blocks of a trading plan and having a method or process to define these structures is key. At S.C. a signal is not issued unless a particular set of criteria is met which means we will let a market go without us if there is no setup. Having a process such as this helps to minimize emotional tendencies and puts you in the position to anticipate rather than react. Follow along at S.C. and see how we apply this simple philosophy across many markets.
by MarcPMarkets
1
Litecoin Short Term TA Day 19Hello everybody. I apologize for my long absence I have been extremely busy. I hope I can continue now making daily TA's of Litecoin. I have not been watching LTC / crypto closely for the last few weeks and I have sad to see we are still stuck in bearish territory and especially LTC stuck in the low $130's. We are approaching critical support areas right now. If we dip below $125, then we have broken our main support from last huge drop to $106. If this happens, then it is possible we can see the mid $110's again, and even a retest of that price point. For the last two days, we have just been bouncing off our support and resistance. This is a classic pattern of lower highs and Lower lows. If we continue like this, then we can see a key test of our main support sometime tomorrow / early Friday. If we stick to this pattern, we can expect a quick bounce off of the upper $127's / lower $128. We will then see a bounce back up into the $134's, in which we will fall back down to testing our main support. To break out of this falling pattern, we need to first break the last resistance touched, which was $139.20. If that occurs, be aware of a possible bull trap, but if we have the volume following it, and manage to break $144.50, then the pattern can be confirmed broken. I really do not want to see our main support broken, but this can be a great buying opportunity because if it is broken, I don't see it staying that low for long at all. Remember to keep an eye on on the Stoch Rsi and the BB to give you an idea on which way LTC / other cryptos might be heading depending what time period you are looking at. Please check out my previous day TA's in the related ideas section and like/follow me if you would like to stay updated on my daily TA's. Thank you everyone.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by whatsinthecupsir
BTCUSD: Not That Weak? Quiet Market Offers Clues.BTCUSD update: 9616 level was compromised but bullish momentum did not take hold. As long as this market can stay above the 8342 low, it will still have a chance to break higher. In my previous BTC report, I highlighted the 9616 break out level which is the .382 minor resistance relative to the recent bearish swing. Price pushed it, and failed. Is this a bearish sign? The fact that price pushed through, even though not followed by bullish momentum is still a sign of strength. A break of this level does not guarantee follow through, it acts as more of a heads up. As long as price does not fall below the recent swing low of 8342, it is setting up for a bullish move in my opinion. Remember if this market was really weak, it would be making bearish progress quickly. This can still happen, especially if a more significant catalyst comes out and pulls the rug from under this price action. The fact that it is holding above the 8659 level indecisively is a sign of strength especially in the face of Goldman Sachs' attempt to talk it lower. IF the current candle closes in its present configuration (inside bar) then what happens next will provide a much better clue as to where this market is going. A break above 9482 will establish a higher low, which can lead to a retest of the 10422 resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing). IF bearish momentum increases, and price closes below 8342, then I would expect a retest of the 8171 to 7239 minor support. Aren't lower highs like the one at 9900 a sign of weakness? Yes, often lower highs are followed by lower lows, but when in range bound environments such as this, the chances of a fake out are much more likely compared to a decisive move lower. This is especially the case when price is sitting above a number of overlapping support levels. In summary, as I have mentioned before, when conditions are unclear, let the market show its hand. When questioning the market, valuable information is gathered not only from what the market is doing, but also from what it is NOT doing. Even though this market may look weak to the casual observer, it is not pushing lows which to me is a hidden sign of strength. Don't be mislead by uneventful conditions because more often than not, that is where opportunity exists. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Weaker Than The Rest? Watch 824 Support.ETHUSD update: Price action has been under performing the BTC market in terms of the recent bullish move. This market did not break its overall bearish trend line, and has formed a minor lower high at the 955 level. This means short term bearish momentum is in effect which decreases the likelihood of the 824 support holding. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. As BTC and LTC showed some considerable bullish structures in their respective movements, this market has not. The 1004 to 1114 resistance level (.618 of recent bearish structure) has never been compromised, and the bearish trend line that was established during the fourth week of Jan is also still intact. On top of that, a new minor lower high at 955 lead to the bullish trend line break while price is now testing the 824 level which is the .382 support of the recent bullish swing. These observations are all signs of short term weakness and this bearish momentum can persist until a reversal structure unfolds. At the moment, price is within the 872 to 739 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish structure) which is a convenient area for such a reversal, but until it appears, I would hold off on any new long positions. A break of the 824 level, and this market is more likely to retest the 739 support zone boundary. Again the key to using these levels is what to reasonably anticipate. The type of momentum that is taking this market lower needs to be counter acted with structure like a mini double bottom or higher low. A simple candle reversal will not be enough because there are too many bearish signals in play. Do not be confused by the different magnitudes. It is possible to have short term bearish momentum within a longer term bullish structure. If you are looking to build a long position in this market, the objective is to wait until price action realigns with the bigger picture, and at the moment it is in a convenient location to do that. My concern with the bigger picture is the 973 lower high which can lead to a larger magnitude lower low. I am not saying it will happen, but because of this structure, there is an increased chance that the 670 level or lower can be retested. In summary, interpreting the price action is not the same as reacting to it. I am using these bearish observations to better determine how to position myself for a position trade long, especially since I do not short these markets. Compared to the other major coins, this market is acting weaker and for that reason, I will require much more validation before taking a position. The predetermined levels and areas offer price locations to anticipate bullish reversals, but there is no guarantee that they will appear. By having a flexible mind set, I can acknowledge the immediate market intent while waiting for it to unfold in the way that conforms to my position trade entry criteria. If it never meets my criteria, I simply sit it out. I always talk about buying weakness, which you can do aggressively or conservatively and I make this decision based on market conditions. If price is aggressively selling into a reversal zone, I will be more aggressive and buy right into it with a small position and wait for stability before building the rest of the position. If price is selling in an orderly fashion like it is at the moment, I would rather be much more conservative and wait for the momentum to show clear signs of change. There is no "right" way to do this, it all depends on your general outlook, your plan, your risk tolerance and the time horizon of the position you are looking to put on. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BTCUSD: Poised For Retrace. Back To 7Ks? Or New Low?BTCUSD update: 8427 resistance decisively broken, so where is the steep rally? A retest of supports is necessary to "prove" that the bears are no longer in control. At the moment, a shooting star candle formation is unfolding just after pushing the 8427 level that I have been writing about. And if this candle closes in this configuration, it is a bearish sign. Keep in mind this period has at least 10 more hours before the candle is official. The close will more than likely determine if this market is going to retest a lower level, or continue the initial rally leg that has been building since the Senate hearings on Tuesday. One of the basic tenets of technical analysis is that markets trend. Trends occur on every time frame and carry different weights. A 1 minute trend is much less significant than a 4 Hour trend, etc. Over the previous month, the intermediate trend has been bearish, while the bigger picture is still bullish. This can be confusing and is why it is so important to know what time frame you are looking to operate on before taking any trade. In order for this intermediate bearish trend to break, the market needs to fail to make a new low and instead, take out a previous peak. This is a process, not a single event. 8171 to 4983 is a major support area (.618 of entire bullish structure) but does not guarantee a reversal will materialize. One scenario that will signal the return of strength before it is obvious is what I call the broader higher low formation. "Broader" means it must happen on a large time frame like a daily or 12 hour. A convenient support area for this higher low is the 7149 to 6677 minor support zone (.618 are of current bullish swing). If price retraces from the current pin bar, I will be watching this minor support zone for bullish reversal patterns. Since the 8427 resistance was compromised, I am anticipating that there is a greater chance the minor support holds. A bullish reversal off of this zone should then lead to a higher high if the market is changing direction. Keep in mind, a broader higher low does not necessarily lead to a new bullish trend. This market may become more range bound before the bigger picture reasserts itself. The focus is to observe the signs and anticipate the most immediate move relative to your time frame and adjust accordingly, not to "predict" the broader moves of the market and feel good about being "right". In summary, this market is not out of the clear yet. IF the minor support in the high 6Ks is broken, this market may retest lows. IF the support holds, then anticipate the next resistance to be compromised and adjust accordingly. I am playing the bigger picture and in a situation like this, my choices are to add to my position, decrease my position, or do nothing. Since I am sticking to my bigger picture plan, I will not be shaken by a new low, I will just hold on to what I have and wait until the market shows a more supportive environment. This is not that difficult to do because my position is not margin based. I compare it to holding physical gold as opposed to paper gold (futures). IF the higher low forms, I will be looking to add once more, and from there only add on resistance break outs. My decisions are a function of the time frame that I am operating on, and is key to avoiding confusion and sticking with the plan. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
Litecoin Short Term TA Day 9After a day of sideways movement yesterday, we have finally broke upward and reached the 160's again! We reached a high of 162.10 before pulling back. Litecoin short term is still bullish which is good. We will need to break about $145 to reverse this. I circled what I believe could be a good buy zone in case LTC does decide to turn around. We have support at 141.20, 137.1, and 130.5. The lowest I see it reaching is that 141.20 mark, but I don't see that happening today. Our current short term resistance is in the 161-161.50 range. If we can break, our next HUGE test will be at 172.50. This will reverse our previous lower high pattern we have been seeing the last few days and will break our one of our longer term resistance bands. I'm hoping LTC moves sideways for a while to consolidate at these levels. I really want to see a test of the 172.50 resistance. That would be huge for Litecoin. If any drastic changes occur in the next few hours I will update this. Please check out my previous day TA's of LTC and follow me if you would like to stay updated with my analysis. Side note: Of course, LTC is highly tied to BTC, and BTC bounced off 8700 three times which is not a good is sign, but the drawback hasn't been extreme. That is why I am hoping we can consolidate at these prices for a little while so when the times come we can past the resistance.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by whatsinthecupsir
BTCUSD: Slow To Go. Retest Of 7Ks Before Next Run?BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum may still be in play because of the slow 8427 breakout attempt. Watch for a bearish close or break of previous candle low for more clarity. This does not mean I am bearish, I am observing and interpreting price action as the market unfolds. Many inexperienced traders who read my reports often think my evaluation is also a reflection of my trading decisions which is not the case at all. The market may show signs of short term bearishness, but that is the market, and only serves as a consideration for strategy and risk management. If I was day trading these markets, then I would be much more sensitive to immediate fluctuations. I am building a position trade which means I am looking at the market from a much broader perspective. I often remind newer traders that before you evaluate a market, you must have an idea of what time horizon you want to trade because information is weighted differently for each time frame. For my position trade, I am looking at broader market structures and evaluating price action on larger time frame charts such as 12 Hour, daily and weekly. And at the moment, price action has gotten stuck just under an important resistance point. A decisive break of 8427 is a key indicator for the return of bullish momentum on the bigger picture. It acts as a confirmation that the most recent bearish swing is over. So what does it mean if the level doesn't break? It means bearish possibilities are more likely. What bearish possibilities? A pull back to the 7Ks for a possible higher low formation. or a retest of the 6K low. In fact, the lower boundary of the current support zone 8171 to 4983 (.618 area of entire bullish structure) implies that a test of the 5Ks is possible for a failed low scenario. How do you manage a bullish position IF a bearish move unfolds? For me, I will not add any more to my long. Only in an extreme instance if price spikes off of a slight lower low will I consider buying more. Otherwise, risk can be managed by staying flat and waiting for more bullish signals. Once again, what to avoid on this time frame is getting short, because chances of a fake out are high based on the location of this price action. In summary, having a perspective serves as a guide. Risk management and strategy must be shaped and adjusted as the perspective changes. Your perspective must start from a time horizon and that is what should determine how your information is weighted. This is what allows me to be long and not get shaken in a market that has been bearish on the short term. Short term direction changes frequently, but the bigger picture does not. The fact that this market is trading within a major support zone is a key factor in my perspective and I am not about to become bearish at a low. As the market offers information that is in line with MY outlook, I can take initiative like add to my position. On the other hand, if the market offers information not inline with my outlook, I have to take defensive measures like not adding, possibly lightening up, and waiting. In order for this to work, my outlook must be based on a fundamental premise and in this case it is about the economic role of this market in the future. This is a major difference from day trading, which does not consider long term viability and focuses only on signals at the moment. Do not confuse perspectives. The simplest thing you can do is choose one and learn what is relevant to that time horizon and what is not. That alone will put you on a much more stable path when it comes to strategy and decision making in these markets. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
Litecoin Short Term TA Day 6Well that little bull run on Saturday was a tease wasn't it... Back down we go though. Litecoin has been performing stronger than its main competitors which is a good sign, BTC is about to reach the 6000's and we are still doing relatively well in comparison with how LTC usually does when BTC falls. Our first test will be 120. This is the lowest it reached right before that little bull run on Saturday. I think that is a good zone to buy, but of course it could go lower, so 107.50 will be the next test. If that gets broken, I would not be surprised if we see LTC below 100 again. If 100 is broken, I do not see it staying there for long. ' Our next real resistance is in the 160 range. If we do become bullish again, I don't see it being long and will see it bouncing off of there. We are seeing lower highs being reached. On 1/29 we saw 197.50. On 2/04 we saw 173.85. If we keep up with this pattern, our next one will be around 151.50. Going off of this pattern, I don't see that being reached until 2/10, so we got a few days of this downward/sideways movement. Remember though, Litecoin/crypto can do anything so all of this could change in an instant. I will keep an eye out on LTC and BTC and see if we touch support or go below and will update this if needed. Check out my previous days TA in the related ideas section and follow me if you would like.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by whatsinthecupsir
1
BTC - 1 - 2 - 3 - HEAVY RAIN !! LOST 10K, ADVISED ON JAN 27THHi Everyone, Actually, I have been saying BTC would fall since DEC 6TH 2017, just check my previous charts on BTC. Well, finally 10k support has just been broken, and price has lost MA 1000. Next stop should be 8700. It should struggle for a while until it goes for the final target: 6.999. About my Strategy: All the strategies that I tried learning around gave me at most 60% of profit probability; to me, that is almost a gamble, or flipping a coin - as 50% - 50% chance. So this is why I am trying to come up with a new way of trading perspective that could really tell us what is going to happen, and that could gives us more then 60%. The main idea here is to trying to understand what the heck is going on in this crazy market, from a high altitude point of view, inside the waves we can never see where the sea will lead the price. For those who don't know, I am trying to use a hole new way of trading perspective: "The Moving Water" that keeps working on my charts posted, but I am still improving it as we speak, so let me answer somethings a lot of people are questioning: Yes - For now I am still testing and improving this new trading perspective. No - I still don't have a blog or website, but keep following and later on I will open up for those who want to learn it. No - "THE MOVING WATER" are not the moving averages, it is so more complex then theses. They are useful, but, actually, most of the time, they fail to give you the right signal, so it is necessary to combine so many other concepts, and time analysis together to find out where the price will go. First Free Tip Proven: ALL MAs, SUPPORTs, RESISTANCEs: are strong until they brake, as you can see on this update on the 10K that was a support. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT. ALL IN.
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
12