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Marketcrash

S&P -They're Still Smilin', And Folks Are Still Gettin' Stabbed!Good morning, Traders. Remember that old O'Jays song we talked about last week? "They smile in your face... all the time they want to take your place...Backstabbers!" Well...apparently the market hasn't finished singing yet. Back when we looked at this chart, we pointed out that the Daily Break of Structure to the downside had already occurred, and price had returned right back into that Daily BOS Supply Source. That wasn't the time to start celebrating new highs. It was the time to watch and see whether sellers would defend that structure. Fast forward to today... Look at what's happened. Price has continued to hang around this same area, but notice something important. Every attempt to push higher has been met with another rejection. Buyers keep knocking on the front door, and sellers keep reminding them they're not on the guest list. To me, that's the part people miss. This isn't about one big bearish candle. It's about the market repeatedly respecting the same institutional area after a confirmed Daily Break of Structure. As long as this Daily BOS Supply Source continues holding, I still believe the bigger picture hasn't changed. The move we're watching is still the same move we've been talking about for weeks. If sellers continue validating this structure, I'm still looking for price to work its way toward the Daily Fair Value Gap, and potentially the Weekly Demand Zone beneath it. Could buyers eventually invalidate this idea? Absolutely. But they're going to have to do more than poke their head above resistance for an hour or two. I want to see a convincing Daily close above this supply source before I start believing the backstabbers have finally left the building. We spent quite a bit of time breaking this structure down during last night's live Weekly Market Review, including why this Daily BOS is still one of the most important things happening on the chart right now. If you missed it, it's worth checking out. So let me ask you... Are the backstabbers finally running out of knives... ...or are they just waiting for a few more buyers to walk through the door? Follow me here on TradingView for future updates.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by AkeelahTraders
Will US Reversals Hold?As of last week's close, all major US indices completed their weekly movements, and all of them indicated a reversal pattern. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all formed a bearish engulfing pattern, while the Dow Jones formed an inverted hammer. So, is a correction coming? Based on these technical studies, a correction appears to be developing. We will discuss how to manage these risks and whether this correction will be shallow or deep. Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures & Options Code: MES Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by konhow
2
Nifty gearing up for ATH !!! Nifty 50 | 125m | Technical Outlook Price is forming a descending triangle/flag structure after the recent swing high near 24,600. RSI showing bullish divergence at oversold levels — PA confirmation still awaited. 🔑 Key Levels: • Resistance: 24,031 | 24,600 | 25,250 | 25,600 | 26,100 • Support: 23,153 | 22,780 • Current: 23,921 📌 Trade Setups: • Aggressive: Breakout above 24,031 → targets daily flag pattern levels • Conservative: Sustained move above 24,600 → target 27,000 • Invalidation: Close below 23,636 RSI divergence building but needs price action confirmation before entry. Patience is key.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by earnwhileulearn
BTC Final Drop: The $47K-$56K Bottom TargetThe Bitcoin macro impulse that began in 2023 at 15K officially concluded at 126K. Based on a multi-degree Elliott Wave analysis, Volume Profile, and momentum data, we are currently navigating a primary corrective structure that projects a final macro bottom strictly within the $47,000 – $56,000 confluence zone. To understand how the market will navigate down to this precise destination, we must first examine the structural invalidations that recently shifted our macro outlook, and then zoom into the immediate micro price action to time the final drop. The Macro Shift: Invalidating the Expanded Flat Initially, there was a high-probability scenario suggesting the primary impulse had already ended at 100K, making the push to 126K a Wave B of a massive Expanded Flat correction. However, for an Expanded Flat to be valid, the subsequent move down from 126K must develop as a clear 5-wave motive structure (Wave C). As price action unfolded, we encountered multiple strict invalidations on the micro timeframes. The initial leg down couldn't be legally counted as a 5-wave sequence. The supposed sub-wave 2 behaved anomalously (fitting only the extremely rare 'wave 2 of an extended wave 1' scenario), and sub-wave 4 presented further rule violations. The bottom line is that the downward move is built of 3-wave sequences, which strictly invalidates the Expanded Flat Wave C thesis. Following these invalidations, the most legally sound count maps the entire 15K-126K bull run as a primary impulse featuring an Extended Wave 5 that terminated at 126K. Consequently, the current price action down from 126K is a larger corrective structure composed entirely of 3-wave sequences. Zooming out, what we previously thought was a Wave C can now be perfectly counted as a WXY Double Zigzag . This aligns flawlessly with the internal structures and perfectly explains the overlapping price action we've been experiencing. Validating the $47K-$56K Confluence Zone With the macro WXY framework established, the critical question becomes: how do we mathematically validate the mid-50K target? To project the exact termination point, we must align the targets across multiple wave degrees to find a high-probability confluence: Micro/Sub-wave: The final Wave C (part of the zigzag that forms the macro Wave Y) projects a target zone between $34K and $56K. Macro Wave: The overarching Wave Y (the final structural leg of the primary WXY correction from 126K) has a standard target range between $47K and $74K. Grand Supercycle: The massive macro Fibonacci retracement for the entire Super Cycle run from 15K points to a deep support zone between $20K and $57K. When we overlay these three distinct Elliott Wave measurements, we reveal a highly concentrated Confluence Zone between $47,000 and $56,000 . Mathematically, this is the only logical area where all wave degrees satisfy their structural requirements simultaneously. To pinpoint the exact landing pad within this box, we integrate volume data. Pulling an Anchored Volume Profile (AVP) from the peak of Super Cycle Wave 3 (at $66,600), we identify the Point of Control (POC) at $66,614. More importantly, the Value Area Low (VAL)—the bottom edge of historical fair value—sits exactly at $55,350 . This VAL level aligns perfectly with the upper boundary of our Elliott Wave confluence zone, acting as a massive magnetic target for the absolute bottom of Wave C. Beyond structure and volume, we also have critical momentum validation. On the weekly timeframe, my KNN RSI indicator has just flashed red. Historically, the only other time this indicator reached the red zone on a weekly basis was when we entered the extreme bottoming ranges of the previous macro cycle. The combination of a completed WXY structure, a perfect multi-degree Fibonacci confluence at $47K-$56K, precise volume support at $55,350, and a rare weekly momentum bottom signal, provides massive validation that we are approaching the true bottom of this bear phase. The Micro Structure: "Injury Time" Before the Flush While the macro signals indicate the broader bottom is drawing near, the immediate price action still has unfinished business. To understand how we trigger the final drop to the mid-50K target, we must zoom into the micro structure. On the 4H timeframe, price action has developed a clear WXY complex structure. Structurally, this 4H WXY forms Wave B of the Daily (1D) ABC sequence, which ultimately builds the final macro Wave Y of our primary correction. When we project the upside targets for this current local bounce, we see overlapping resistance zones: Daily Wave B Target Range: $72K – $93K 4H Wave Y (of the WXY) Target Range: $70K – $83K We have already tapped the minimum requirements for both of these wave degrees twice. Technically speaking, we are currently in "injury time" (overtime). The structure is legal, and the market has the full technical permission to top out here and begin the aggressive Wave C plunge at any given moment. However, if the market intends to engineer one final liquidity sweep before the breakdown, there is a pristine, highly magnetic confluence zone sitting just above current prices. The Golden Pocket Fibonacci extension (1-1.236) for the micro Wave Y rests tightly between $75K and $77.5K . Perfectly aligning with the upper boundary of this Golden Pocket is a heavy institutional Order Block stretching from $77K to $79K . This creates an ultimate "last kiss" resistance zone with maximum confluence exactly at the $77K – $79K area (specifically the $77K-$77.5K intersection). We may see a final, quick spike into this liquidity pool to mitigate the Order Block and trap late breakout traders. But the bottom line remains the same: whether the reversal begins exactly where we are now, or after one last jab into the $77K-$79K ceiling, this local top is nearly complete. The next major move is the Wave C flush down to our macro target box in the mid-50Ks. What's your macro target for this final drop? Drop your numbers in the comments below. 👇 If you found this breakdown helpful, a Like and Follow goes a long way. Feel free to share this analysis or tag it in your own charts! Author: Maayan Tiran
BYBIT:BTCUSDT.PShort
by maayan_tiran
1
US30 Trade Signal - Bearish ImpulseCAPITALCOM:US30 #TradeSignal - #Bearish Impulse Summary: OANDA:US30USD #Trade #Signal - TVC:DJI #Bearish Impulse started. - #DowJones Sell Positions in focus. #TechnicalAnalysis: CAPITALCOM:US30 Signal Chart Structure: - Primary 5 Top - #EndingDiagonal - #Bearish #Divergence - $USD30USD #Bearish #Fractal #DowJones Prediction: - #BearishImpulse - #ElliottWavce Intermediate (C) Wave CAPITALCOM:US30 Trade Levels - Ticker: OANDA:US30USD - Direction: #SHORT - Market Entry @ $46450 - Strategic Entry @ $47500 & $48000 - SL @ $51000 & 51500 - TP1 @ $43500 - TP2 @ $42000 - TP3 @ $39850-$39000 * #TradingSignals are subject to risk: DYOR.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Lionheart-EWA
Nasdaq Trade Signal - Bearish ImpulseIG:NASDAQ #TradeSignal - #Bearish Impulse Summary: PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 #Trade Signal - OANDA:NAS100USD #BearishImpulse started. NASDAQ:NDX Sell Positions in focus. #TechnicalAnalysis: PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 #Signal Chart Structure: - Primary 3 Top - #Endingiagonal - #Bearish Divergence - NASDAQ:NDX Bearish #Fractal #NAS100 Prediction: - #BearishImpulse - #ElliottWavce Intermediate (C) Wave #Nasdaq Trade Levels - Ticker: PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 - Direction: #SHORT - Market Entry @ $23980 - Strategic Entry @ $24400 & $24800 - SL @ $26500 & 27000 - TP1 @ $22500 - TP2 @ $20200 - TP3 @ $19100 #Nasdaq Daily Chart: #TradingSignals are subject to risk: DYOR.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Lionheart-EWA
The Bearish Case for the S&P 500THIS IS A BEARISH OUTLOOK FOR THE S&P 500. Ladies and Gentlemen, Greed is upon us. no more TACOs can save the economy now. The Oil Markets ( TVC:USOIL ) are now above $100 a barrel, there looks to be no more rate cuts until the end of this year, private credit is getting a beating, and there may even be a ground invasion of Iran even though the USA talks of a "truce". These will all be culminating at the same time. This chart is what that may look like, it truly isn't looking good for us right now. This bearish outlook sees a 30% pullback between 2026-2027. There may be a ceasefire with Iran, but that will only soothe the markets for a short time, as there may be a bigger crisis; Private Equity. This is especially with stocks like NYSE:OWL , NYSE:KKR , NYSE:APO , etcetera. Not to mention NYSE:ORCL 's debt and the major hype for NASDAQ:SPACEX that is basically a trap (the lockup will expire after 180 days, so prepare for a major pullback for that stock if that happens), which will essentially make the drop worse. Overall, this doesn't look good for the markets right now, but who knows what will happen in the future.
SPCFD:SPXShort
by Rem3dy
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK – BOUNCE COMPLETE, DECISION ZONE AHEADNIFTY 50 – VOLATILITY WITHOUT DIRECTION Nifty closed at 23,114, almost unchanged week-on-week (+37 points), but price action remained highly volatile. Weekly Range: High: 23,862 Low: 22,930 As mentioned last week, markets were in oversold territory, which led to a relief bounce toward 23,800+. However, the inability to sustain higher levels indicates selling pressure still exists. Importantly, Nifty continues to respect the 23,800 – 22,500 range, keeping the structure intact. MARKET REGIME Short-term: Range-bound with volatility Medium-term: Corrective phase The market appears to be stabilizing, and for now, it seems that the worst may be behind us, unless fresh geopolitical or macro shocks emerge. NIFTY – KEY STRUCTURAL LEVELS Critical Support 👉 22,400 Weekly close below 22,400 → opens path toward deeper correction (potentially extended downside phase) Resistance Zone 👉 23,800 – 23,900 Sustained move above this zone → signals strength returning STRATEGIC VIEW Ideally, I would like to see one final move toward 22,400 to: Exhaust remaining selling pressure Complete the fear cycle Once that happens: 👉 I will track that week’s high–low range 👉 A breakout above that week’s high would be a trigger to initiate long positions This approach ensures entry based on confirmation, not anticipation. BANK NIFTY – WARNING SIGNAL Bank Nifty closed at 53,427, down 330 points, and importantly: 👉 It has closed below Weekly EMA100 Historically: Consecutive weekly closes below EMA100 → Lead to a move toward Weekly EMA200 (~48,780) This implies a potential ~8% downside risk. If that plays out, it will likely drag Nifty lower as well. 👉 Hence, next week’s Bank Nifty close becomes extremely critical. S&P 500 – GLOBAL PRESSURE POINT S&P 500 closed at 6,506. Key Level: 6,580 Weekly close below 6,580 → downside toward 6,082 (~6% correction) Close above 6,580 → bulls regain short-term control Global markets are approaching a decisive inflection point, which will influence Indian markets. FINAL MARKET VIEW Nifty: Range-bound but stabilizing Bank Nifty: Weak, critical support under threat Global markets: At inflection Volatility likely to persist 👉 Next week’s closing levels will be decisive. This is not a time to predict — This is a time to observe, react, and stay prepared. YOUR VIEW Do you think Nifty will defend 22,400, or is a deeper correction coming? Drop your view below 👇 IMPORTANT UPDATE For nearly two years, I’ve been sharing my weekly market views here. 👉 From next week onwards, the detailed version will move to a Premium Weekly Edition with deeper insights and structured frameworks. Free summaries will continue as usual.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
MAGS7 | 2027 BottomSeeing that MAGS7 is peaked tells me that markets are for sure topped out. I'm expecting to see low 40s towards the demand zone as price looks to distribute. In terms of looking for a bottom we can see some action in the June - July months of this year but cant say for sure if we will expect the same bottom we had last year which was very quick. If we see a prolonged bottom like 2023 then I'd expect to see markets bottom out for April of 2027. Usually when a 4 year cycle ends we see a full year of bears. 2026 marks the end of this cycle.
CBOE:MAGSShort
by Nathanl19
How to Spot a Market Crash Early | Key Warning Signs for TradersLearn how to identify early warning signs of a market crash before panic sets in. This guide is for traders and investors in stocks, crypto, gold, and forex markets. Recognize key indicators like volume spikes, candlestick patterns, trend divergences, and liquidity traps that often precede sharp downturns. Protect your portfolio, manage risk, and spot high-probability opportunities during volatile market conditions. Key Warning Signs to Watch For 1. Volume & Liquidity Clues Unusual spikes in trading volume or liquidity often indicate large institutional moves. Sudden withdrawals or concentration of trades can signal market weakness. 2. Candlestick & Trend Divergences Sharp bearish candles, lower highs, or weakening momentum often precede crashes. Divergence between price and technical indicators (like RSI or MACD) can warn of trend reversals. 3. Correlation Analysis Monitor correlated assets such as USD, gold, or major stock indices. Weakness in multiple correlated markets often confirms an impending downturn. 4. Economic & Market News Interest rate changes, geopolitical risks, or poor earnings reports can trigger sudden market declines. Stay aware of global economic indicators that impact sentiment. 5. Risk Management Strategies Use stop losses to limit potential losses. Hedge positions or scale trades carefully during high volatility. Avoid over-leveraging – it amplifies risk during crashes. 6. Avoid Common Trader Mistakes Don’t panic sell during the first signs of weakness. Avoid ignoring warning signs or emotional trading decisions. Discipline and preparation outperform fear-based actions. Actionable Tips for Traders and Investors Track unusual market volume and liquidity movements. Identify key support/resistance zones on charts. Watch for divergence signals and early trend reversals. Diversify and protect investments with hedging or safe-haven assets. Stay informed about global economic and geopolitical developments.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by mayachartist
24
beyond the CHARTCAPITALCOM:US100 Price is currently trading below a key intraday reaction high while sitting inside a lower-timeframe equilibrium range. Despite the recent bounce from discount, price remains capped under multiple stacked supply layers. Market is in liquidity engineering mode rather than directional expansion. Higher Timeframe VANTAGE:NAS100 NAS100 (Daily) • Price remains below major daily supply near 26,080 • Overall structure still corrective after distribution phase • No daily acceptance back above macro premium • TrendMaster shows momentum cooling after prior bullish leg HTF Bias: Neutral to Bearish below 26,000 Intraday Structure (1H) • Market formed a clear LL around 24,300 then reacted from discount PD arrays • Current price hovering around 24,800 equilibrium • Multiple rejection wicks from 25,000 premium zone • Liquidity resting:  – Above: 25,000 / 25,250  – Below: 24,500 / 24,300 Momentum state: corrective, not impulsive. Scalp Structure (15M) • Short term HH printed near 24,900 into minor supply • Price reacting inside micro premium • Intraday dealing range:  Low: ~24,450  High: ~24,900 Scalp flow currently range-bound with liquidity grabs both sides. Primary Scenario (Sell Bias) Sell zone: 24,950 – 25,250 Looking for: • Weak push into highs • Failure to hold above 25k • Displacement back into range Targets: 24,650 24,500 24,300 Extended target: 24,100 liquidity pocket Preferred while price stays below stacked supply. Secondary Scenario (Intraday Long Only) Valid only if price holds above 24,600 Requires: • Strong acceptance above EQ • Displacement through 25k Targets: 25,000 25,250 Counter-trend scalp only. Not a swing bias. Invalidation Levels Shorts invalidated: • 1H close above 25,300 • Acceptance inside premium HTF supply Longs invalidated: • 1H close below 24,500 Final Expectation Market is compressing inside a liquidity pocket before expansion. Current conditions favor engineered moves into liquidity rather than trend continuation. As long as price trades below macro supply, reactions from premium remain higher probability. Patience at extremes → confirmation → execution. Not financial advice. Risk management mandatory.
VANTAGE:NAS100
by iamtradingdon
DEJA VU: The 2021 Top is Replaying on the Weekly Chart.This is a weekly view of BTC. The structure is clear and concerning. The circle on the left shows the distribution pattern that led to the 2021 crash. The circle on the right shows where we are right now. The similarity is undeniable. We have just witnessed a major weekly rejection and a structural break to the downside. The macro top appears to be in, and the bearish reversal has started. The arrow indicates the expected trajectory. I anticipate a continued decline toward the major weekly support clusters shown by the yellow lines below.
BYBIT:BTCUSDT.PShort
by maayan_tiran
Silver Drops More Than 31% — Is This Silver Friday?This Friday, silver experienced a drop of more than 31%, one of the sharpest declines seen in decades. When I analyzed historical data, I found only one comparable event with a larger short-term collapse: Silver Thursday in March 1980. That naturally raises the question: 👉 Are we witnessing a modern version of Silver Thursday? 👉 Or should we call this a “Silver Friday”? A Brief Reminder: What Was Silver Thursday? In March 1980, silver prices collapsed by nearly 50% in a single session. The backdrop was extreme: Prices had surged from ~$6 to almost $50 in less than two years The rally was driven by heavy leverage and position concentration The Hunt brothers controlled a massive share of the silver market through futures and physical holdings When exchanges (notably COMEX) raised margin requirements and imposed liquidation-only rules, forced selling kicked in. Liquidity vanished, margin calls cascaded, and prices collapsed violently. Silver Thursday became a textbook example of how leverage and rule changes can destroy a market in days. Is Today the Same Situation? Short answer: no — not really. While the magnitude of the drop looks dramatic, the structure of the market is very different. What drove the silver rally in 2025? Momentum-driven inflows Strong speculative positioning Catch-up trade vs gold Short-term narrative around inflation and monetary uncertainty But importantly: No major supply shock No structural shortage No sudden change in long-term fundamentals This was not a multi-year cornering attempt like in 1980. What Actually Happened This Friday? Rather than a systemic breakdown, this move looks like: A violent deleveraging A reset of overextended positioning The unwinding of a few weeks of extremely fast price appreciation In other words, silver didn’t collapse back to “fundamental value” — it simply gave back a short period of excessive growth. Final Thought Large percentage drops feel historic in real time. But context matters. In 1980, silver collapsed because the market structure broke. In 2026, silver dropped because the rally got ahead of itself. Same metal. Very different story.
COMEX:SI1!
by QuantNomad
8
THE BRUTAL TRUTH ABOUT GOLD Stop listening to the "price targets." They are all BULLSHIT. 🚫 The current move in Gold is a once-in-history event. Nobody knows where the ceiling is because there is no ceiling in a system that's breaking. 📍 THE NUMBERS: $4k? $8k? $10k? It's all on the table. 📍 THE STRATEGY: If you’re holding, DO NOT LET GO. If you’re out, find your entry NOW. THE WARNING: ⚠️ This isn't a "bull market" celebration. It’s a warning. The aggressive buying tells us that the whales think SOMETHING BIG is coming. This isn't about local skirmishes ( war between Iran and US , or Greenland )—it’s about a global shift that changes everything. 📉🌍 We’ve lived through enough "historic events" from Corona to wars. We all hope for peace, but GOLD is screaming that the storm isn't over. Protect yourself. The numbers don't lie. 💎🙌 #GOLD #XAUUSD #MARKETALERT #THEBIGONE #FINANCE2026 #HOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ash_TheTrader
SPX Short: We are at the PEAK! STOP above 7050!Over in this video analysis, I spent almost 20 minutes to talk about the wave structure, the Fibonacci relationships, the fractal relationships between different waves, how to short, and also warns about "What-if-I'm-wrong" scenario. What I missed to mention in the video is that for now, we still do not have any extensions in our waves 5 (Cycle and Primary). NOT that there MUST be an extension, but it is something to keep it mind for the alternate count of a series of 1s and 2s, leading to a compounded wave 3. Remember that the most important part of this video, which I mentioned at the end, is the ending diagonal invalidation price: 7049.65. A stop MUST be place above this price. For easier remembering, above 7050. Good luck!
CBOE:SPXShort
by yuchaosng
9
BTC NEXT CYCLEMy unpopular opinion about 2026–2027. Somewhere closer to summer 2026 the world will look too perfect. Green energy headlines. Stable inflation narratives. “Recovery is strong.” “Markets are resilient.” Unicorns flying through Bloomberg terminals. Everything will feel clean, sustainable and under control. That’s usually the moment when things break. I don’t believe the next problem will start with crypto. Crypto is just the first victim, not the cause. Energy comes first. When energy prices spike or supply becomes unstable, mining becomes unprofitable. Not “less profitable”. Unprofitable. Bitcoin miners don’t mine ideology. They mine electricity. If energy costs explode or access becomes restricted, miners shut down, sell reserves, and survive. Price doesn’t argue with survival. That’s how you get pressure that has nothing to do with narratives, ETFs, or “long-term adoption”. Just math. I strongly believe we will see Bitcoin below $63,000 this cycle. Most likely much lower. A sub-$40,000 print before the end of 2026 or sometime in 2027 doesn’t sound crazy to me at all. Not because Bitcoin is weak. But because the system around it is fragile. Energy stress doesn’t come alone. Food follows. Logistics, fertilizers, production costs, weather, geopolitics — pick any combination. When energy shakes, food doesn’t stay calm for long. And here’s the uncomfortable part: People who say “that can’t happen” will struggle much more than people who simply ask “what if it does?” This is not about panic. It’s about mental positioning. You don’t need to predict the exact event. You just need to accept that smooth narratives usually end violently. Markets don’t crash when everyone is scared. They crash when everyone feels safe. This is not financial advice. This is pattern recognition.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by trushkovskiy
1
S&P500 crashes! Due relief rally or further pain?Nvidia delivered impressive earnings, but the stock reversed and closed nearly 3% lower, triggering heavy selling across tech and risk assets as odds for a December rate cut have collapsed to just 34%, with policy uncertainty amplified by the cancelled October NFP report. Despite a strong market and rising unemployment in September's NFP report, traders remained defensive and fuelled the declines. Key drivers: Nvidia beat earnings, but post-report selling intensified sector losses. The Fed’s odds for a December rate cut have dropped to 34%, amplifying caution. The abrupt cancellation of the October NFP means the market lacks fresh labour data, fuelling defensive positioning. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin broke major supports, confirming risk-off conditions. Right now, the S&P 500 has broken below channel support near 6,600 and failed to climb back in. If prices stay below this threshold, expect another sharp move lower targeting 6,500 and possibly 6,350. There’s potential for upside, given momentum divergence on the RSI 4-hour chart. If we see a short-term bounce and a return to the channel, a move toward 6,682 is possible, which sets up a tactical short opportunity. Trade idea: Entry: Midpoint of 23.6/38.2 Fibonacci (6,655–6,682 area) Stop-loss: Above 61.8% Fib (6,775) Take Profits: TP1 6,500 (recent low/support), TP2 6,440 (major support), TP3 trail stop to 6,170 (long-term support) Risk-off drivers are in control. Earnings reversals, Fed uncertainty, and cancelled NFP data are fuelling this price action. Technically, it comes down to whether we see a return inside the channel for a relief bounce or a sharp continuation downward. Watch your levels, remain nimble, and let fundamentals and technicals, not emotions, guide your trade. Let me know your setups in the comments, and follow for more high-action technical and macro trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:SPX500Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
Is a Market Correction Coming? 10 Warning Signs You Can’t Ignore🚨 Markets look euphoric… but data says otherwise. Hello @TradingView users, hope you are doing well Here are 10 reasons why we think a sharp pullback could be near (Not financial advice — just signals stacking up.) 1) Record yield-curve inversion: The 10y–2y spread was negative for a record ~783 days before ending in Sept 2024; such inversions have preceded every U.S. recession in recent decades. 2) Q1 2025 GDP dipped, Q2 rebounded: BEA shows real GDP fell in Q1 2025 (revised −0.6%), then rose +3.8% in Q2 2025. One more weak quarter would meet the “technical” definition, but Q2 strength complicates that path. 3) Cuts usually come with stress: Markets are pressuring the Fed to cut; historically, rate-cut cycles often start when growth/inflation risks tilt weaker (not typically in “booming” conditions). 4) LEI turned down again: After a tiny July uptick, the Conference Board’s LEI fell −0.5% in Aug 2025 and is −2.8% over the last 6 months, pointing to softer momentum (the “15+ straight months” stat is no longer current). 5) Valuations are stretched: The Shiller CAPE > 40, the highest since the dot-com era—historically linked to weaker forward returns. 6) Labor market showing cracks at the margin: Unemployment ~4.3% (Aug 2025) and job openings ~7.2M (Aug)—down from the 2022 peak—suggest some cooling, even if not severe. (I removed the unsourced “+35% layoffs” figure.) 7) Buffett’s record cash: Berkshire now holds roughly $381–$382B in cash & T-bills, an all-time high—interpreted by many as “waiting for better prices.” (Replaces the older $347.7B figure.) 8) Government shutdown risk/drag: The U.S. is in a prolonged federal shutdown (30+ days), with credible estimates of a material GDP hit if it persists—an added macro headwind. 9) Parabolic leaders, dot-com déjà vu vibes: Today’s rally is narrow and AI-led, and valuation gauges echo late-1990s extremes—a setup that can amplify drawdown risk on disappointments. markets.businessinsider.com 10) Clustering of risks: Yield-curve history + LEI weakness + stretched valuations + policy uncertainty = elevated correction risk, even if timing is uncertain. Please be cautious, more signals are starting to align, suggesting a potential market drop. From Warren Buffett holding significantly more cash, to the ongoing government shutdown, and even the recent sharp rally that mirrors patterns seen right before the dot-com bubble, the puzzle pieces are starting to fit together. This message isn’t to cause panic, but rather to remind you to trade carefully and stay prepared either by keeping some cash ready to invest if the market drops, or by simply sticking to your existing long-term investment plan if you have any. Comment below what YOU think, is this a healthy dip incoming or the start of something bigger? @TradingView Appreciate it if you guys can feature this post so more traders and investors get the warning and stay safe if the drop happens. Thank you Alain M(Coach) WTW Team NYSE:DOW NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by WeTradeWAVES