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Gold Context: Initiative Breakout & The ATH Magnet COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Analysis 1. Market Context (The Transition) The auction has successfully transitioned. What began as mechanical Short Covering has evolved into apparent Initiative Buying . • Structure: The market is facilitating trade at higher prices, signaling that "New Money" (Innovators/Early Adopters) sees value here. • Momentum: This is not just emotional momentum; it is structural. The migration of value suggests confidence in the breakout. 2. The ATH Approach (Nuance Required) With the fundamental backdrop updated (Policy Divergence/Fed Pause) and year-end flows active, the auction is magnetically drawn to the All-Time High . • The Probability: The path of least resistance is higher. We are likely to test the ATH limits soon. • The Caution (Laggards): As we press into record highs, be aware of the "Diffusion of Information." We want to ensure the buying remains dominated by smart money, not Laggards chasing the move late. If the buying quality deteriorates (low volume breakouts), expect a sharp inventory adjustment. Plan & Execution • Bias: Long/Constructive. • Invalidation: We need to hold acceptance above the recent breakout shelf (4300 area). A failure to hold would suggest the current participants were just "renting" the position, not owning it. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026Long
by Ken_Kissaki
Gold Weekly Playbook: Key Levels, Scenarios & Sentiment Triggers1. Macro Update Gold continues to trade within a macro environment defined by shifting rate expectations and evolving recession probabilities. With the Fed maintaining a data-dependent stance, the market remains highly sensitive to inflation and employment prints. Cooling inflation supports the case for rate cuts, pulling real yields lower and creating a constructive backdrop for gold. Conversely, stubborn inflation pushes the narrative toward “higher for longer,” often slowing upside momentum and encouraging more rotational price action. This doesn’t immediately turn GC bearish, but it does cap impulsive continuation as traders reassess forward guidance. Recession sentiment is the second major driver. Rising recession odds tend to benefit gold as investors rotate into safe-haven assets, even without imminent Fed easing. A persistent soft-landing narrative—stable labor markets, steady consumption—can reduce defensive flows and temper gold’s velocity. Overall, the macro backdrop remains cautiously supportive, but still very catalyst-driven. 2. What Has the Market Done? Gold has exhibited constructive price action, with the recent week imbalancing up and out of the 17 Nov weekly balance/value area. Importantly, the market closed at the highs of the week, signaling sustained buyer aggression and broad acceptance of higher prices. Weekly value and Volume point of Control (VPOC) have shifted upward, reinforcing a meaningful change in participant behavior: buyers are willing to transact at progressively higher prices, and sellers have not shown the ability to force price back into prior balance. This upward migration of value marks a firm shift in short-term sentiment. The market is also now at an important structural zone at 4251.3—the 13 Oct weekly VPOC and the 20 Oct weekly Low value area (LVA). How the market reacts at this level—rejecting, stalling, or accepting—will be a telling indicator of whether buyers maintain control or whether sellers can slow the advance. 3. What to Expect in the Coming Week The key level to watch this week: 4254.9 - Previous week/month’s settlement price This level acts as a major pivot for directional conviction. Holding above settlement supports the case for continuation; a sustained move below it increases the likelihood of rotation or deeper testing. Bullish Scenario If the market holds and accepts above 4254.9, upside continuation becomes likely. Target 1: 4378.6 (Weekly 1 Standard Deviation (SD) High) – expect responsive sellers. If market accepts above 4378.6: Target 2: 4436.2 (ATH region) – extended bullish objective. Bearish Scenario If the market fails to hold above 4254.9, expect sellers to target 4195.3 (previous week’s VPOC). Additional downside triggers: If buyers cannot reclaim 4261.3 (previous week’s high), pressure may push price through prior value toward 4136.5. If buyers then fail to reclaim back above 4195.3: Next target: 4131.2 (Weekly 1 SD Low / 17 Nov VPOC / Bid Block 3 midpoint). Continued seller control may extend the move toward 4070/80, aligned with the 2-week composite VAH and upper boundary of Bid Block 2. Neutral Scenario If neither buyers nor sellers show conviction, expect two-way consolidation around previous week’s settlement, 4254.9, between 4316.7 and 4193.1 (10 Nov weekly high / 20 Oct LVA / weekly 0.5 SD high). This remains the most probable balance zone unless a macro catalyst drives breakout behavior. This week’s structure is clean: one major pivot and clearly defined pathways for both sides. Whether GC breaks out or slips back into rotation will hinge on how price behaves around 4254.9. What’s your outlook for Gold this week? Drop a comment and give this post a boost so more traders in the community can join the discussion! Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade your own plan with proper risk management.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by EdgeClear
1
MSOS Long with 150% Upside - Cannabis Rescheduling Catalyst💠 Catalyst : Cannabis is currently classified as a schedule I drug alongside heroin, bath salts, and synthetic opioids that kill thousands every year — all while being safer than Tylenol and legal in over half the country. Cannabis is likely to be rescheduled to a schedule III drug soon after Terry Cole is confirmed as the head of the DEA. The vote to confirm him is expected to take place...TODAY As a schedule I drug, cannabis companies can’t deduct regular business expenses for tax purposes, have limited access to banking, must transact with customers in all cash, and US multi-state operators are unable to list on the major US exchanges. Terry Cole will be confirmed as the new head of the DEA, and when he is confirmed, the stalled process to reschedule cannabis from a schedule I to a schedule III drug should resume. If cannabis is rescheduled, that will pave the way for further research, destigmatize it, and open the door to banking and uplisting of US multi-state operators to the major exchanges in the near future. This trade capitalizes on the fact that investors are not positioned for reform and further positive catalysts. The worst-case scenario is priced into the MSOS ETF, and when good news on rescheduling hits the tape, that should start a NEW Bull market in the MSOS cannabis stocks. 💠 Technical Setup: Bear Market • Multi-year bear market throughout the entire Biden administration on promises to reschedule that were never followed through on • Capitulation when Trump won the election on the prospect of potentially another 4 years of no reform Bearish to Bullish Technical Transition! • LT Stage 1A Bottom Signal (Price > 50D SMA) • ST Stage 2A Breakout (First day Price > 10D EMA and 20D SMA) • Hourly Chart – Breaking out above Weekly Value Area • Daily Chart – Trading above the Monthly Value Area • Overlapping prior monthly value areas in sight! • VPOC in sight! • Weekly Chart – Targeting a retest of the Yearly POC 💠 Trade Plan ENTRY: $2.72 (Break above weekly value area high) STOP: $1.97 (Below the prior all-time-low) TARGET: 6.92 (A retest of the yearly point of control from 2024) RISK: 27.6% REWARD: 154.4% R/R Multiple: 5.6X Probability of Win: 50% Expected Value: 63.42%
AMEX:MSOSLong
by pristinecap
3
Euro FX Playbook: Key Levels That Will Decide the Next Leg1. Macro overview The broader narrative driving the dollar and Euro FX in the past quarter has been centered on shifting Federal Reserve expectations and the market’s evolving outlook on global growth. The dollar has remained firm as traders continue to balance softer inflation prints against persistent uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of future rate adjustments. While inflation has moderated, the market has not fully embraced a clear easing cycle, which has kept the dollar supported during periods of risk aversion. For Euro FX, this environment has created a backdrop where price action has been more about relative policy expectations and the pace at which each central bank signals a shift. The Euro has struggled to sustain directional conviction because both sides have been sending mixed signals. This has produced choppy two sided auctioning within a broader range. Sellers have shown responsiveness at the upper end of the structure, while buyers have continued to defend well defined pockets of liquidity near the lows. The result has been repeated consolidation blocks forming as neither side fully takes control. 2. What the market has done The market was trending lower from September into November while still trading within the larger multi month range between 1.200 (daily resistance) and 1.155 (daily support). Offers consistently stepped down through this period. Buying liquidity was found again at the 1.155 area. Buyers had previously responded here, initiating the August rally off May’s Bid Block 1 which formed the daily support. This zone once again acted as a key response area. Bids stepped up as the market compressed into late November, and buyers were able to push back through the descending offer sequence. From there, the market auctioned two way between the 1.174 area (1 December weekly VAH and daily pivot zone 2) and the 1.155 daily support. Buyers stepped up bids in early December and succeeded in bidding prices back above 1.174, showing that buyers were still present and willing to auction the market back up. This move also confirmed that sellers failed to hold the breakdown from the prior 1.5 month consolidation block. 3. What to expect in the coming week The key level to watch is the 1.182 area (29 September weekly VAH). Bullish Scenario • If the market is able to accept above 1.182, it is expected to continue higher toward 1.187 (daily pivot zone 1). • Sellers are expected to respond here from 1.187. • If sellers fail to respond, the next upside target becomes 1.1967 (15 September weekly VPOC) and possibly 1.200 (daily resistance). • A move into these levels would place price near the upper boundary of the larger multi month range. Neutral Scenario • If the market is unable to accept above 1.182, or if sellers defend and reject price from 1.187 (daily pivot zone 1), the market is expected to remain rotational. • The likely rotation range sits between 1.173 (1 December weekly VAH / daily pivot zone 2) and 1.187. • This should allow the market to establish value higher and form a base for further directional resolution. Bearish Scenario • If buyers fail to defend 1.173 (1 December weekly VAH, daily pivot zone 2, and Bid Block 3 range high), the market is expected to push lower to 1.1666 area (17 November VAH). • If selling continues, price may extend further to 1.1644 (24 November weekly VPOC). Conclusion Euro FX remains in a larger range with clearly defined response zones on both sides, and next week’s behavior around 1.182 will set the tone for whether the market rotates higher or slips back into balance. Let me know what levels you are watching or if you see anything different on your charts. Please give this post a boost so more traders in the community can join the discussion! Thank you. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage your own risk carefully.
CME:6E1!Long
by EdgeClear
Gold Context: Initiative Buying & The Path to ATHCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Analysis 1. Market Context (Transition to Initiative) The Gold auction has evolved significantly. What began as mechanical short covering has transitioned into probable initiative buying (New Money). Structure: The auction is facilitating trade at higher prices, indicating that buyers are aggressive and willing to pay up. The Shift: We have moved away from the "emotional" phase into a more sustainable value migration. The market is now seeking to repair the structure and test the extremes. 2. The Road to ATH (4425) We are now within striking distance of the All-Time High (4425 area) . Key Reference (4300): This level has shifted from a psychological barrier to a potential support shelf. The Setup: If Gold can hold and build acceptance above 4300 , it confirms the breakout. We expect the auction to establish a new balance area here before making the final rotation toward the ATH. Friday Flows: Be mindful of weekend profit-taking, but as long as the structure holds above the breakout point, the medium-term bias remains firmly to the upside. Plan & Execution Focus: Watch for acceptance above 4300. Scenario: If we see a pullback, I am monitoring for responsive buyers to defend the breakout zone (turning old resistance into support). Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026Long
by Ken_Kissaki
Post-FOMC Context: Policy Divergence & Inventory AdjustmentCOMEX:GC1! FOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 Analysis 1. Macro Context (The Currency Auction) The structural bid for the USD remains valid due to clear Policy Divergence . * The Fed: The "Hawkish Cut" (25bps) coupled with the signal for a "slower pace" (only one cut projected for 2026) confirms a pivot to a "pause" to verify data. * The ECB: Conversely, Europe is cutting into economic weakness. * Implication: This widening rate spread creates a fundamental floor. The recent drop in DXY displays the characteristics of a Liquidation Break (inventory adjustment) rather than a structural reversal. The market flushed weak, crowded longs, but value has not migrated lower. 2. Gold Auction Analysis (Emotional Structure) The post-FOMC rally in Gold displays the hallmarks of an Emotional Trade . * Structure: The vertical move has left behind Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) and single prints. This indicates the auction was driven by mechanical short covering rather than initiative buying, leaving a "poor" or "thin" structure. * The Test: We are trading into Higher Time Frame (HTF) resistance. * Scenario A: For a credible attempt at ATH, we require New Money (OTF) to step in and backfill these LVNs—converting the thin structure into accepted value. * Scenario B: Without sustained OTF participation, the probability favors a rotation back to value to repair the poor structure. Emotional rallies often fade once the short covering inventory is depleted. 3. ES Context (Liquidity Window) The "Hawkish" pause signal removes the "easy money" narrative for 2026. If 10Y yields break higher, the ES auction is vulnerable to its own liquidation break as participants adjust to the new rate path. Plan & Execution * Gold: Caution on the long side at these highs. The structure is fragile. Monitoring for a fade back to value versus genuine acceptance. * DXY: Expect two-way trade as the liquidation stabilizes and inventory balances. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
Gold Context: Reclaiming 4227 & Follow-Through FlowsFOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1! Traders. Pre-US Open update on the developing structure. Market Context (Reclaiming Value): Gold has successfully rotated back above 4227, reclaiming Friday's trading range. • The Flow: We observed initial short covering that found genuine follow-through. This indicates that the market is not just covering shorts but finding acceptance at these higher prices. • Structural Shift: By trading back inside Friday's range, the auction has negated the immediate bearish pressure seen at the lows. Structure & Outlook: • The Pivot (4227): This level is now our key reference. As long as Gold facilitates trade above 4227, the bias remains constructive (Long). • The Target: The immediate destination for this rotation is 4250. • Condition: We need to see the US Open maintain this bid and not fall back below the 4227 shelf. Plan & Execution: • Bias: Long / Constructive. • Invalidation: A failure to hold 4227 would put the auction back into a weak position. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026Long
by Ken_Kissaki
Gold Context: Failed Breakdown & Structure ResilienceCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Traders. Update on the opening flows of the week. Market Context (The Defense): Yesterday, the auction probed slightly below Friday's low, but failed to find acceptance or continuation. The Reaction: Instead of triggering a broader liquidation break, we saw immediate short covering. Key Observation: The market barely tested Thursday's low. This inability to extend lower and "repair" the structure indicates a lack of aggressive selling interest. Structure & Outlook: I do not view this price action as a sign of weakness. On the contrary, the rejection of lower prices suggests responsive buying is present. The Expectation: We are looking for this initial short covering to transition into New Money (OTF) buying. The Confirmation: If "New Money" steps in above the current balance, it validates the resilience we saw yesterday and should drive the auction higher. Plan & Execution: Bias: Constructive / Looking for upside rotation. Focus: Monitoring the transition from mechanical short covering to genuine initiative buying. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026Long
by Ken_Kissaki
Gold Context: The 4290 Probe & Weekly Balance OutlookFOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1! Traders. Weekly wrap-up and context outlook for the next auction. Market Context (The Rejection): Gold rejected the 4290 level, falling just short of the 4300 psychological magnet. • Interpretation: While the day ended with a rejection (excess), we must not ignore that the auction did facilitate trade at these levels. This extension above our 3-day balance indicates intent. • The Profile: The rally displays characteristics of short covering (squeezing weak shorts) rather than aggressive new buying. The rejection simply indicates the price was "too high" for the current timeframe, but the level remains a valid target for a revisit. Structure & Outlook (Next Week): We are monitoring the Weekly Balance zone roughly between 4220 – 4260. • The Bull Case (Acceptance): If we see continued short covering transition into New Money (OTF) buying above this balance, we look for acceptance at these higher prices. This would open the door to trade through 4300. • The Bear Case (Liquidation): There is a probability of long liquidation if the auction fails to hold the balance, but I am cautious/skeptical of the downside potential right now. Plan: Watch for acceptance vs. rejection relative to the 4220–4260 balance. We need "New Money" to sustain the break of 4300. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
Gold Value Rotation & Lack of ConvictionFOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1! Traders. Context update for the remainder of the week. Market Context (The Rotation): The auction has rotated back into yesterday's Value Area and POC (Point of Control). • The Driver: This move was primarily driven by mechanical short covering rather than initiative buying. • The Problem: There is no evidence of "new money" (OTF) entering the market to sustain a directional trend. The auction is simply balancing. Structure & Inventory: • Balancing: Price is chopping between the GEX levels (Gamma levels), finding acceptance around the 4244 POC. • Momentum: Stalled. The market is waiting for a catalyst from the Dollar (DXY), which is currently consolidating at lows. • Behavior: Every breakout attempt is failing to find follow-through, confirming a mean-reversion environment. Plan & Execution: Given the lack of conviction, I am not looking for trend trades this week. • Stance: Range Bound / Two-Way Trade. • Tactics: Fade the edges of the balance. Expect price to remain tethered to the POC until new information enters the market. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
Balancing Range & The 4190 PivotCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Traders. Update on the current auction structure. Market Context (No New Money): We have yet to see any "New Money" or Initiative Buying enter the market. Yesterday developed as another Balance Day, capped by some late-session liquidation. The Reality: The auction remains range-bound between 4,290 (High) and 4,190 (Low). Without a fresh catalyst, price is simply rotating within this established bracket. Structure & Key Levels: Bullish Scenario: If Gold can hold acceptance above Yesterday's Low, the rotation favors a re-test of the upper distribution around 4,260 – 4,270 later this week. Bearish Scenario: The line in the sand is 4,190. A breakdown and acceptance below this level changes the context significantly, likely dragging the auction down to repair the November Balance Area (~4,100). Plan: Stance: Neutral / Range Trading. Execution: Fading the extremes of the 4290-4190 range until we see a breakout with volume confirmation. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
The Bell Curve: Understanding Normal Distribution in TradingMost traders have seen the “bell curve” at some point, but very few actually use it when they think about risk and returns. If you really understand the normal distribution, you’re already thinking more like a risk manager than a gambler. 1. What is the normal distribution? The normal distribution is a probability distribution that describes how values tend to cluster around an average. If you plotted a huge number of outcomes (for example, daily returns or P&L per trade), the shape you’d get would often look like a symmetric bell : - Most observations are close to the center. - As you move away from the center in either direction, outcomes become less frequent. - Extreme gains and losses are possible, but they’re relatively rare. Mathematically, a normal distribution is usually written as N(μ, σ): μ (mu) is the mean – the average outcome. σ (sigma) is the standard deviation – a measure of how widely the outcomes are spread around that mean. In trading terms: If your returns roughly follow a normal distribution, you should expect many small wins and losses clustered near zero, and only occasional large moves in either direction. 2. Mean (μ): the “drift” of your system The mean is the point at the center of the distribution. On a chart of returns, this is where the bell is highest. If μ > 0, the bell is shifted slightly to the right → your system is profitable on average. If μ < 0, it’s shifted to the left → your system slowly loses money over time. For a trading strategy, μ is basically your edge. It doesn’t need to be huge. Even a small positive mean return, if it’s consistent and combined with disciplined risk management, can compound strongly over the long run. 3. Standard deviation (σ): volatility in one number The standard deviation controls how wide or narrow the bell curve is. - A small σ gives a tall, narrow bell → outcomes are tightly clustered around the mean. - A large σ gives a short, wide bell → outcomes are more spread out, with bigger swings away from the mean. Think of σ as a statistical way to describe volatility: - For an asset: how much its price typically moves relative to its average change. - For your strategy: how much your returns or daily P&L fluctuate. Two systems can have the same mean return but very different σ: - System A: μ = 0.2%, σ = 0.5% → relatively smooth ride. - System B: μ = 0.2%, σ = 2% → same edge, but a wild equity curve and deeper drawdowns. Same average, totally different emotional and risk profile. 4. The 68–95–99.7 rule One of the most useful features of the normal distribution is how predictable it is. Roughly: - About 68.2% of observations lie within ±1σ of the mean. - About 95.4% lie within ±2σ. - About 99.7% lie within ±3σ. So if daily returns of an asset were approximately normal with: - Mean μ = 0.1% - Standard deviation σ = 1% Then under that model you’d expect: - Roughly 68% of days between –0.9% and +1.1% - Roughly 95% of days between –1.9% and +2.1% - Only about 0.3% of days beyond ±3% Anything far outside that ±3σ range is, in theory, a very rare event. In practice, that’s often the kind of day everyone remembers. 5. Why this matters for traders Even with all its limitations, the normal distribution is a powerful framework for thinking about risk: Position sizing If you know (or estimate) the standard deviation of your returns, you can form an idea of what “normal” daily or weekly swings look like, and size positions so those swings are survivable. Stop-loss logic Stops that sit right in the middle of the usual noise (within about ±1σ) will get hit constantly. Stops closer to the ±2σ–3σ region are more aligned with “something unusual is happening, I want to be out.” Expectation management Most days and most trades will fall inside the “boring” part of the bell curve. Understanding that prevents you from overtrading while you wait for the edges of the distribution – the bigger opportunities. 6. The catch: markets are not perfectly normal Real markets often break the textbook assumptions: - Returns tend to have fat tails → extreme moves happen more often than a normal distribution would predict. - Distributions are often skewed → one side (usually the downside) has more frequent or more severe extreme events. That means: - A move that looks like a “5σ event” under a normal model might actually be something that happens every few years. - Risk models based strictly on normal assumptions usually underestimate crash risk. - Strategies like option selling can look very safe when you only think in terms of a normal distribution, but they are very sensitive to those fat tails. So the normal distribution should be treated as a baseline model, not as reality itself. 7. Quick recap The normal distribution is the classic bell curve that describes how values cluster around an average. It’s parameterized by μ (mean) and σ (standard deviation). Roughly 68% / 95% / 99.7% of observations lie within 1σ / 2σ / 3σ of the mean in a perfectly normal world. Markets only approximate this; they usually show fat tails and skew, so extreme events are more common than the simple model suggests. Even with those limitations, it’s a very useful tool for thinking about returns, drawdowns, and the range of outcomes you should be prepared for.
Education
by Kodexius
4
Short Covering vs. New Money (Waiting for the Catalyst)COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Traders. Mid-week context check as we wait for institutional commitment. Market Context (The Mechanical Bounce): As noted in the previous update, yesterday's rotation was driven by Short Covering—old money exiting profitable shorts—rather than Initiative Buying (New Money) entering fresh longs. The Trap: Short covering can lift the auction, but it lacks the sustained energy to break new highs. We are seeing price drift without aggressive volume. Inventory: We are currently balancing above the Previous Week High (PWH). This zone is holding, but the auction feels "heavy" without fresh inflows. The Fundamental "Hold" (Why Big Funds are Waiting): "Big Funds" are likely sidelined ahead of the tier-1 data dump. They need clarity before deploying serious capital for the week. Today (Wed): ADP Payrolls & ISM Services. Friday: The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls). The Reality: Until these numbers drop, we may remain in a "chop" or "balance" phase as institutions hedge rather than commit. Plan & Execution: Bias: Slightly Long, strictly conditional on holding above the PWH. The Trigger: I need to see Follow Through. We need a volume spike (Initiative Buying) to confirm that "New Money" has arrived to defend this breakout. Caution: If we fail to find acceptance higher and lose the PWH, expect a rotation back inside the previous balance to find liquidity. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
Gold Looks Heavy,Downside Break Loading?📰 What’s happening: Gold is losing strength because the market thinks rate cuts are not coming soon. Strong USD = weak gold. Simple. 📉 What the chart is showing: Selling pressure is stacking up. Market structure is leaning bearish. We’re sitting right on a major support zone: $4,200 ⚠️ Why this matters: If this support cracks, gold could slide fast into the $4,100zone — that’s the next clean liquidity area. 📌 My view: I’m watching for a break → retest → continuation to the downside. Buyers look tired. Sellers look hungry.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ShinForex1
USDCAD - Bearish BiasAnalyzing the previous candle on the D1 timeframe (Tuesday's candle), we can see we had a clear sweep of other previous D1 candle's high (Monday's candle). Now after the sweep of Monday's high, we closed back inside Monday's candle range. So with that in mind, I'm anticipating, and confident enough that the next liquidity price is gonna draw to is Tuesday candle Low, and possibly if there's high volume, we wanna see previous Fridays Low also being takes. And that alarms the bias for today (Wednesday). That does not mean going on to your chart 📉 and putting your SELL order, but with careful analysis, we first anticipate price to pull back into a PDA, 1h Internal Range Liquidity (a FVG, a sweep into an old highs or testing and OB), only then we can be confident hunting for sells in alignment with the overall BIAS for today. I'm Zak, and I'm starting a new journey in giving back the knowledge I've acquired in my 4 years trading experience. So if you found this useful, please show me your support and I'll continue to do this everyday. Much love trader 😊
Short
by ZakProFx
Liquidation Break & The "New Money" TestCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Following up on the previous context regarding the "Thin Structure Repair." Market Context (The Repair): As anticipated, the auction corrected lower to repair the thin profile left behind by the holiday drift. Monday: Developed as a Balance Day, digesting the recent move. Today: We saw a Liquidation Break early in the session, effectively flushing out weak hands, followed by a rotation back up. Structure & Inventory (The "Tell"): The current bounce is characteristic of Short Covering (old money exiting winning shorts) rather than Initiative Buying (new money entering longs). The Trap: Short covering can rally price, but it is mechanical and temporary. It creates a "hollow" move if not supported by fresh volume. The Requirement: To re-test and break the All-Time Highs, we need to see "New Money" step in. Without this sustained buying flow, the auction will lack the energy to hold higher prices. Plan & Execution: Stance: Cautious / Monitoring for flow confirmation. Scenario A (Bullish): If we see aggressive Initiative Buying absorbing offers above the short-covering highs, we target the ATH. Scenario B (Bearish): If the rally stalls and "new money" fails to show up, expect the market to rotate deeper to find supportive bids (value) at lower levels. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
Thin Structure Repair & ATH ProximityCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 Market Structure (The Problem): The rally into this new high was built on a very thin profile. The auction moved higher emotionally on low holiday volume, leaving a series of single prints/low volume nodes (LVN) below current price. The Theory: In Market Profile, "thin" structures are fragile. The market often needs to rotate back down to "repair" this structure—backfilling the volume to prove that buyers actually exist at these higher prices. Context & Seasonality: ATH Proximity: We are striking distance from All-Time Highs. The air is thin up here, and without strong volume support, a breakout is prone to failure. Time Constraint: We have a short trading window (runway) before Christmas and Year-End book squaring. Liquidity will likely be sporadic. Plan & Execution: Heading into the US Open, I am cautious of this rally. Stance: Flat / Monitoring. The Setup: I am looking for a correction to repair the thin profile below. Execution: If the market rotates down and finds acceptance (buyers) within that thin structure, it validates the trend. If it slices through, the rally was a fake-out. Let's see how the auction develops today. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
Gold Context: December Open & Holiday Inventory CheckCOMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1! Traders. Here is the context update as we transition into the new month. Market Context (Holiday Drift): The auction drifted higher on thin volume during the Thanksgiving and Black Friday shortened sessions. This extension was largely driven by a lack of sellers rather than aggressive buying, leaving us with a "thin" structure. Structure & Inventory: We have significant inventory resting back at 4200 – 4170, sitting just above the Previous Week High (PWH). Current Action: Price is holding the holiday extension. The Problem: The move up lacks heavy volume support. We have "unfinished business" below at the breakout zone. Plan & Execution: Monday marks the start of fresh December flows. I am not interested in chasing this extension at these highs. Stance: Flat / Patient. The Test: I want to see Gold rotate back to test the inventory at 4200 – 4170 first. Decision: We need to verify if buyers will defend this zone (turning old resistance into support) before committing to a new directional bias. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
1
Bitcoin at the Edge – What Comes Next?Over the past couple of months, Bitcoin has been navigating a complex mix of macro shifts, liquidity changes, and sector-specific catalysts that, in our opinion, have pushed the market into a critical decision zone. Sentiment has become increasingly divided: long-term structural bulls remain confident, while short- and medium-term flows have turned more cautious. 1. Recent Developments & Market Sentiment In the past half a year, crypto markets have been influenced by several overlapping narratives. Regulatory tone has eased globally, with more pro-innovation stances emerging in key regions. Political developments—particularly renewed efforts in the U.S. toward clearer crypto frameworks—have added a layer of optimism. Institutional participation has also continued to expand, with ETF flows stabilizing after earlier periods of volatility. Yet despite these supportive headlines, market behavior has shown hesitation and sold off in the past month. In our opinion, this was driven primarily by the resurfacing of Trump’s aggressive tariff threats, reigniting trade-war fears, a sharp drop in expected Fed rate cuts, and massive institutional ETF outflows plus leveraged liquidations. Sentiment has flipped from extreme greed to extreme fear. In our view, the inability to sustain acceptance at recent highs points to exhaustion in the prior uptrend. Overall sentiment is less euphoric and more cautious—this current zone would likely be a battleground between long-term accumulation and shorter-term mean reversion. 2. The Underlying Driving Forces Bitcoin’s medium- and long-term structural drivers remain intact: institutional adoption, the growing integration of digital assets into traditional finance, the post-halving supply dynamics, and Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with broader macro conditions. Macro factors such as real yields, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite continue to play a major role. As markets position for next year’s rate lowering expectations and potential fiscal shifts, Bitcoin, in our opinion, is behaving more like a liquidity-sensitive asset than a speculative outlier. This is especially apparent in how it has reacted to major economic releases and policy signals. The bottomline is that Bitcoin’s major swings are increasingly tied to macro liquidity flows—the same forces that drive equities, especially high-beta tech. Market structure is equally important. Bitcoin’s auction process—how price accepts or rejects value—often drives multi-month cycles. When value areas break or hold, the market tends to transition into new regimes. That is exactly where the market appears to be now. 3. Chart Analysis – A True Decision Area Bitcoin is currently sitting at what we believe is a major inflection point: the 2024 Low-Value Area (LVA), where Bid Block 1 formed in March 2025. This zone acted as the structural base where buyers initiated up to new all-time highs earlier this year. From July to October 2025, the market attempted to accept near the top of the range, with buyers defending Bid Block 2. By mid-October, however, bid support weakened. Longs unwound, driving price back into Bid Block 1 near 84,600, which is confluent with yearly support and the prior trendline break from November 2024. Going into the next quarter, Bitcoin sits atop a critical area of demand. In our opinion, how price responds here could determine whether this pullback stabilizes or it becomes a deeper liquidation phase. Key Levels: 82,000 – 2025 developing low / Bid Block 1 low / 2024 TL breakout 77,000 – 2024 VPOC Bearish Scenario: If buyers cannot recover quickly back above 87,700 (2024 VAH), and bids fail to hold the 81,000–77,000 region, the market may open the door to further long liquidation. That could lead to a move through the 2024 Value Area, potentially targeting the 60,000 region (2024 VAL). Bullish Scenario: If buyers reject strongly up from the 82,000 area, a move through 94,200 (Bid Block 1 high) could shift control back toward buyers. This may open a path toward 100,000/102,550 (2025 developing VAL / Bid Block 2 low), where sellers could be expected. Acceptance above that could set up a move toward 123,050 (2025 developing VAH) and possibly a revisit of the all-time highs. Neutral Scenario: Without any new catalyst, the market may consolidate and form a two-way auction between 99,700 and 82,000 as it digests recent volatility. This could serve as a base for the next directional expansion. In our view, how Bitcoin behaves around this zone will set the tone heading into 2026. I’d love to hear your views—drop your thoughts in the comments and give this post a boost so others can join the discussion. This post reflects our personal market views and is for educational discussion only. It should not be interpreted as financial or trading advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and the levels discussed here may shift as new information emerges. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
CME:MBT1!
by EdgeClear
ETH/USD – Low-Volume Accumulation Breakout SetupETH/USD – Low-Volume Accumulation With Potential Early-Session Breakout Ahead ETH/USD has been trading inside a tight, low-volume consolidation zone over the past few sessions. The daily volume profile shows a consistent drop in participation, indicating that larger players have stepped aside temporarily. Whenever price moves sideways on contracting volume, it often suggests accumulation or absorption, not weakness. Historically on this chart, each period of suppressed volume has been followed by an impulsive breakout, as shown by the repeated patterns on the left side. The current structure is forming a similar setup. Price continues to respect the Daily Value Area and is holding above a key support shelf, showing that sellers are failing to push the market lower—even with low volume. This is a sign of strength from passive buyers. If today’s session also closes with muted volume, it sets the stage for a potential early-session expansion tomorrow, likely targeting the imbalance and low-volume area highlighted above. The projected target zone aligns with the next liquidity cluster on the volume profile, where the market may attempt to print a new short-term high before deciding its next macro move.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by ZACKFX7
Rigetti Computing Stock Analysis before earningsRGTI Stock Analysis before earnings About Rigetti Computing Stock (Ticker: RGTI), I see decent buying moment, altough having a P/S ratio of 1500 aproximately, which looks absurd in a value investing perspective, the stock is considered cheap and with great potential of having an uptrend in the long term. Great innovative perspective. - In a technical outlook, this week has shifted above 42.25 usd level, which means a market structure shift, and breakout of the tanking effect last days. Today in the last trading day, has closed in expansion relating to the profile. Relating investment advice: Not financial advice, and never risk more money that you can lose, trade at your own diligence!, Stay safe, Sebastian.
NASDAQ:RGTILong
by TheSnickers12
WIF/USDT – Accumulation Phase Before Potential RecoveryWIF continues to consolidate after an extended downtrend, currently trading around $0.53 within a well-defined range between $0.45 (support) and $0.85 (resistance). The structure shows signs of base formation, with steady accumulation and reduced volatility — a setup that often precedes directional movement. Support zone: $0.45 remains the key demand area where buyers are consistently stepping in. Resistance zone: The main resistance to watch is near $0.85 — a breakout above could confirm trend reversal. Volume behavior: Gradually increasing volume hints at potential momentum build-up for an upward move. If market sentiment improves, WIF could attempt a return toward the $0.75–$0.85 zone, marking a mid-term recovery phase. For now, holding above $0.50 keeps the structure constructive for a bullish continuation.
Long
by SatochiTrader