TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS
MONTHLY: we are currently inside of a monthly demand and expecting a bounce from this zone
DAILY: the price is far away of a daily supply now, and it may want to test it
H4: it has just created a new H4 demand zone. Test of the zone should be a good buying opportunity
TP1: just before the H4 candle wick
TP2: trail the stop till...
Since it is very low on the altitude for shorts, we should just look for a quick 1:1, not more.
This trade is an aggressive one
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Palladium futures are in a corrective Wave C according to my Wave counter. Broke Daily 200 MA and 200 WMA and looks like now have a clear path forward. Daily RSI may be slightly overloaded so there may be a short correction after the immediate ascending but the ending target of 680 figures looks very reachable.
On fundamentals, Palladium hasn´t forwarded the Gold...
After all this huge ascending we had, it is clear that Gold is a Buy: huge sideway channel we had since some weeks ago has been broken upwards and broken well, with a solid confirmation.
Now, before going any further, Gold has to correct: lot of mid-term buyers may want to take their profits. I´d expect it to correct to a Fibo 50% line as it looks like a solid...
The big direction of this ratio is obviously down, and there are only three ways this ratio can go down: 1. Silver going up and Gold going down; 2. Silver going up more than Gold going up; 3. Gold going down more than Silver going down. #3 is very unlikely and #2 is most likely. Personally, I'm long both metals.
$XAUUSD was one of my winners last week with successful bearish harmonic pattern traded from 1260$ to 1230$.
Now a bearish Head and Shoulders was formed with a neck line that is also the bottom of a trading channel.
The price closed below the 50 SMA line and barely above the Fast SMA line.
1225$ - Key support zone
Bearish scenario - Breakdown and continuation...
