STRATEGY Final decline to $60 will price the Cycle bottom.Five months ago (March 18, see chart below), we gave our last update on our Strategy (MSTR) investment plan, amidst the ongoing Bear Cycle:
This Bear Cycle hasn't been completed yet but it's not far from doing so, always based on the previous 2021 - 2022 pattern. Technically, Strategy continues to be on a non-stop downtrend since the mid July 2025 High and generally a Bear Cycle since its November 21 2024 All Time High (ATH).
Right now it appears that we are at the end of Stage 3, the final of the Bear Cycle and is where in October 2022 the final Bearish Leg took place that priced the bottom just below the 1M MA200 (red trend-line). So far the structure including the different stages and MA movement among the two Cycles has been identical so we have every reason to expect that 2026 will be concluded this way.
Based on the 2021 - 2022 Cycle, it could last for 693 days and since the November 21 2024 Cycle Top, this should be concluded by late October, which coincides with the expected Bear Cycle duration of Bitcoin. Check also how similar the MA patterns are among the two Cycles, both starting Stage 2 by turning the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) into Resistance (that held for the rest of the Bear Cycle) and continuing with a 1D Death Cross that led to the break below the 1W MA200 and the beginning of Stage 3.
So if the blueprint of 2021/22 is replicated to the very end, expect the stock to complete a -90% total Bear Cycle decline, breaking marginally below $60.00, which has always been our long-term Target for the past year. That will still be just above the 1M MA200 (which priced both the December 2022 bottom as well as the March 2020 COVID crash bottom) but will be almost at the bottom of the 5-year Channel Up.
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Characterizing Short- and Long-term Paths of MicroStrategyA high-timeframe ascending parallel channel is identified as A market-making model for MicroStrategy which experienced a "fake breakdown" of one-quarter the channel's width in late 2022. within it, MicroStrategy is nearing the end of its bear market phase and has effectively undergone another fake breakdown—though the price has not yet dropped to the one-quarter-channel-width level typically favored by market makers.
Simultaneously, I have identified a descending parallel channel in the price action over the past year. Combining these two patterns, I project that MicroStrategy will bottom out between $56 and $58, likely around August 30 or October 10.
After accumulating shares and exhausting the patience of retails at this level, the stock should enter the bullish phase of the high-timeframe ascending parallel channel—specifically, Wave E. While the theoretical peak for Wave E lies near $2,480, such a market capitalization would be astronomical; therefore, I am adopting a conservative target of $790, which is derived by aligning the peak of "Wave C" (within a secondary ascending parallel channel, marked in orange)—which I view as a fake breakout—with the parallel upper boundary corresponding to the midline of the primary channel (Model A) projected for 2029.
In short, my MacroStrategy is to buy MicroStrategy at ＄58 and significantly reduce my position at $550 and then—until the price reaches either $790 or $2,480—simply forget that I hold MicroStrategy.
Saylor’s manipulation is extremely ruthless and aggressive, so do not let emotions dictate your actions.
good luck
NASDAQ:MSTR Long 
MSTR: Don't be Saylor's ATMLooking at the chart comparing MSTR versus the SPX, you are essentially looking at the "Volatility Multiplier" of the crowd's confidence in Michael Saylor.
The ratio between MSTR and the SPX is not a standard correlation; it is a leverage-adjusted signal.
When MSTR outperforms the SPX (the ratio line slopes upward), it confirms that liquidity is flowing into high-beta, Bitcoin proxy-linked assets.
When the ratio flattens or dips, it indicates that the market is "de-risking"—moving back into stables / broad-market indices like the SPX.
During the "Accumulation" phase of the 4-year cycle, you will often see this ratio consolidate.
During the "Parabolic" phase, the MSTR/SPX ratio tends to go vertical.
The most critical part of this chart is where it intersects with the company's Share Issuance events.
The "Saylor Effect": Historically, MSTR issuance announcements cause a localised dip in the MSTR/SPX ratio (as the market digests dilution), followed by an aggressive recovery if the market perceives the capital deployment as "accretive" (i.e., it buys enough BTC to justify the dilution).
Watch the ratio right after any "ATM" (at-the-market) issuance. If the ratio recovers quickly, the Institutional Bid is strong.
If the ratio stays suppressed, the market is signalling that the dilution is outpacing the value creation.
The Dilution-Dividend Balancing Act: Saylor’s issuance of common shares is a tactical manoeuvre designed to fund the aggressive accumulation of BTC.
However, this is constrained by their commitment to Series A preferred stock (STRC) dividends.
The Constraint: Equity issuance must create "accretive value" (each new share issued must increase the total BTC owned per share).
If the share price drops, issuance becomes dilutive rather than accretive, creating a "downward spiral" of BTC-per-share value.
The "Last Resort" Sales (The Liquidity Tripwire): This is the risk most analysts ignore. If the share price drops to a level where issuing common stock becomes aggressively dilutive, management is forced to either stop buying or sell BTC to fund operations/debt.
* The Projection: A sale of Bitcoin to fund operations would be a fundamental "trend break." It signals that the liquidity engine has stalled.
Keep a close watch on the USD Cash Reserve vs. Preferred Dividend Requirement.
If the cash reserve falls below the threshold required to cover dividends, the likelihood of a "forced sale" of BTC spikes, which would immediately compress the MSTR/SPX ratio. Short 
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MSTR: Why Does the Stock Trade Below Its Own Treasury?MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds 847,363 Bitcoin acquired at an average cost of $75,651 per coin. With Bitcoin near $60,000, paper losses now exceed $10 billion. Market capitalization has collapsed to $36.5 billion. That figure sits below the underlying value of the digital reserves themselves. Investors can buy the entire firm for less than the Bitcoin in its treasury. This discount has fully reversed Saylor's accretive flywheel. The model required premium-priced share issuance to fund cheaper Bitcoin purchases. Selling shares at a discount instead dilutes shareholders. The capital-raising engine has stopped.
Institutional capital is fleeing rapidly. The Chaikin Money Flow index has plunged to -0.25, signaling severe outflows from large buyers. The stock's 30-day correlation with Bitcoin has surged to 0.75. The equity now trades as a leveraged derivative on a volatile asset. MicroStrategy executed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 to meet obligations, a visible signal of treasury stress. Short-term speculators defend the price floor alone. Long-term capital stays sidelined. Geopolitical exposure now compounds this structural weakness. On May 30, 2026, the US Treasury seized $1 billion in Iranian crypto under Operation Economic Fury. Federal authorities also froze $500 million on the Tron network in coordination with major centralized exchanges. The precedent is now established. Nation-states can freeze or seize large crypto holdings on centralized rails. MicroStrategy's concentrated treasury sits squarely within that perimeter.
The most serious threat comes from quantum computing. Google's March 31, 2026 research delivered a shock. 500,000 superconducting qubits can now break Bitcoin encryption in minutes. The prior estimate required twenty times that count. The Jesse-Victor-Gharabaghi algorithm published in early 2026 factors RSA-2048 in 11 hours using only 5,000 qubits. Over 1.7 million dormant Bitcoins sit in vulnerable Pay-to-Public-Key addresses that cannot accept post-quantum upgrades. Freezing those wallets breaks Bitcoin's immutability. Leaving them invites catastrophic theft. Neither path preserves the foundational promise. Trump's June 22, 2026, executive orders mandate complete post-quantum defenses by 2031.
The enterprise software business cannot offset these treasury losses. Web3AI Technologies' patent infringement lawsuit targets the MicroStrategy ONE and MicroStrategy AI platforms over patent US9218574B2. The case proceeds in the Norfolk Division of Virginia. The 2026 macroeconomic backdrop of tech selloffs and persistent inflation tightens the squeeze further. The firm lacks free cash flow. Preferred shares are declining. The company can no longer issue debt easily. MicroStrategy stands at a multi-vector crossroads where treasury, regulatory, technological, and litigation threats converge simultaneously.
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MicroStrategy, Macro ProblemMSTR broke and retested a 122 area / LOI, rejected hard, and accelerated into a 88.50 AOI.
The larger structure is still lower highs and lower lows. Until bulls reclaim key pivots, this remains a bearish structure with bulls needing to prove a real shift.
The 88.50 area has now been tagged, but there is not a clean bullish reaction yet. Because of the acceleration, I’m considering that this move may be extending. If price continues lower with strength, the 63 area is the next major downside LOI, with the 50s also becoming possible depending on how the wave structure develops.
The two main versions now are either a 5th-wave extension if MSTR gives a strong impulsive bounce from here, or a larger wave 3 extension if price keeps accelerating lower.
Key levels:
• 136 = first major pivot bulls need to beat to shift structure
• 122 = last rejected LOI / major reclaim level
• 101 = prior pivot that could matter on a bounce
• 88.50 = AOI now being tested
• 63 = next major downside LOI if acceleration continues
For bulls, the first step is a clear impulsive reaction from this area. Without that, there is no reason to force a bullish read.
For bears, any corrective bounce from here still keeps pressure lower as long as MSTR remains under the 136 area and continues building lower highs.
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MSTR Approaches A Zone That Could Decide Its Next Big MoveMSTR has returned to a major multi-year support zone after a steep decline. Price is testing the same region that held during previous cycles, making this a critical technical inflection point.
This chart is about more than just the recent drop; it’s about whether long-term support will hold or give way to a deeper correction.
Trend Structure
Long-term trend: ascending channel from 2022 low to 2025 high.
Short-term trend: lower highs and declining price pressure.
Support zone (~115–120) repeatedly tested.
The short-term downtrend has triggered momentum warnings, but the long-term base remains intact.
Support / Resistance
Support Zone: 115–120 (critical multi-year floor)
Support B: ~60 (next major target if support breaks)
Resistance: Upper channel trendline from historical highs.
Support zone integrity is key to trend continuation.
Moving Averages
1W MA50 (231.92) — above current price, reflecting short-term bearish pressure.
1W MA100 (246.69) — above price, confirming weakened momentum.
1W MA200 (156.72) — slightly above current price, acting as equilibrium level.
MAs slope downward slightly, showing short-term selling pressure.
Indicators Visible
RSI (14) at 33.91, trending lower.
Momentum remains negative but not oversold.
No bullish divergence visible.
Chart Pattern
Multi-year horizontal support zone forming a compression structure.
Downtrend trendline connecting previous highs indicates resistance.
Measured move suggests possible decline toward ~60 if support breaks.
Momentum
Momentum currently favors sellers.
Price is below MA50, with declining RSI.
However, the long-term channel remains in play.
Bullish Scenario
Support zone holds (115–120).
Price may bounce toward upper channel (~195–200).
RSI stabilizes, recovering momentum.
Bearish Scenario
Support zone breaks decisively.
Measured move target: 60.
Momentum and trendline validate stronger downtrend.
Key Conclusion
MSTR is testing a critical multi-year support zone. The market must now decide if this level holds or if the correction deepens.
Discussion Question:
Will MSTR defend the 115–120 support for a bounce, or is a move toward 60 inevitable? Short 
MSTR and BTC Wave Structures Signal Further Downside RiskMicroStrategy (MSTR) has experienced a deep retracement from its 2024 highs, declining by more than 80%, which reflects the extreme pessimism now embedded in the market. Typically, such large drawdowns can precede a reversal phase, and so far the structure does show three clear waves down from the peak. However, the subsequent rebound into the 200 area appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting it may represent a fourth wave within a broader bearish sequence rather than a trend reversal. If the current flag structure breaks to the downside on a daily close, it would open the door for a potential fifth wave decline toward the 100 level.
Bitcoin is also showing weakness due to a positive correlation with Microstrategy. It's declining impulsively along with MSTR after a three-wave corrective recovery. We could see another decline this year. If that happens, the key support remains around the 50k-48k area.
Adding to sentiment pressure, MicroStrategy recently sold 32 Bitcoin. While the amount is relatively small in the context of its holdings, it may still carry a psychological impact on market participants given the company’s historically strong association with aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. Bitcoin RoadmapOver the past two days, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has been on a downward trend with strong momentum, dropping more than -6%.
Why Did Bitcoin Drop in the Last 24 Hours?
Several bearish factors hit the market at the same time:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $483.8M in net outflows on Monday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the withdrawals. This signals weaker institutional demand and reduced buying pressure.
Mt. Gox moved over 10,400 BTC from cold wallets. While no exchange deposits have been detected and the coins remain largely unspent, the market fears potential selling pressure from future creditor distributions.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 32 BTC for the first time since December 2022. The amount is insignificant compared to its 843,706 BTC holdings, but the move has negative psychological impact as it weakens the long-standing "never sell" narrative.
On-chain metrics remain soft. SOPR is hovering around 1.0, showing many holders are selling near their cost basis, while MVRV Z-Score suggests Bitcoin is neither deeply undervalued nor showing strong bullish momentum.
Additionally, we must consider Middle East tensions and the ongoing uncertainty around a potential agreement (or lack thereof) between Iran and the U.S. If renewed military conflict occurs, it could lead to further Bitcoin declines—this is an important factor to watch.
Now, let’s look at the 4-hour Bitcoin chart and see what the roadmap might look like.
Bitcoin appears to have broken key support lines and is currently trying to break the support zone($70,980-$69,300). It’s also nearing the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($68,890-$68,000), while also attempting to fill a CME gap($67,570-$67,170).
From an Elliott Wave perspective, given the downward momentum, we should expect further bearish waves. Right now, it seems a five-wave micro downtrend is completing, potentially in the PRZ.
Also, the USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) still appears to be on a bullish path, and its rise could continue to put downward pressure on crypto prices, especially Bitcoin.
I expect Bitcoin to bounce from the PRZ and the key trading level of $67,300, potentially rising back in a pullback toward the broken support zone($70,980-$69,300) before possibly falling again.
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $70,700-$70,200
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $73,000-$72,000
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $64,880-$62,000
What’s your view on Bitcoin? Can it recover, or should we expect further declines in the coming days?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends. Short 
Long 
MSTR Retest Is Here, 150 MattersMSTR finally came back into a level we have had marked for months and bounced out of the AOI.
The main question from here is whether this retest turns into continuation, or whether price needs to come back toward the lower 150 area first.
Current read:
Price is reacting from the higher level, but I do not want to ignore 150. That level matters because it lines up with an important Elliott Wave pivot. If MSTR breaks below 150 impulsively, this starts to look more like a failed retest with resistance flip risk.
If price pulls back correctively into that area instead, I’ll be watching for a possible 1,2 1,2 setup.
Key levels:
• 150 = important lower retest level and Elliott Wave pivot
• Current AOI = bounce area price reacted from
Bullish path:
Bulls want to hold this reaction cleanly and avoid an impulsive break back through 150. A corrective pullback keeps the 1,2 1,2 idea alive and could support another continuation attempt.
Bearish path:
An impulsive break below 150 would damage the bullish read and raise the odds that this retest failed. That would make me watch for the level to flip back into resistance and open the door for lower prices.
For now, I’m watching the reaction first, not forcing the trade.
Trade safe. Trade clarity. Long 
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MICROSTRATEGY a pyramid ponzi.Understanding the situation with MSTR can be quite complex.
Many people recognize that MicroStrategy has been issuing convertible bonds at a 0% interest rate to purchase Bitcoin. This strategy tends to drive up both Bitcoin's price and the value of MSTR shares.
As a result, the scheme appears to inflate continuously, placing the risk on bondholders. The only way for MSTR's stock price to keep rising is through the issuance of increasingly larger amounts of convertible debt; otherwise, the entire pyramid would collapse.
It's understandable why Michael Saylor seems to be focusing more on shilling MSTR bonds instead of Bitcoin itself.
Why would institutions invest in MSTR's convertible bonds at 0%?
Many believe it's because they anticipate being able to convert these bonds into MSTR stock in five years at a predetermined price, potentially around $675, effectively giving them a premium-free call option. However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy: inflation. At first glance, this might seem like a poor investment choice—if one expects MSTR's value to rise, it would make more sense to buy the shares now rather than commit funds to a higher price in the future.
Why would anyone engage in such a massive financial manoeuvre involving BILLIONS?
The truth is, those purchasing the bonds are ACTUALLY indifferent to the rising stock value! Their primary interest lies in capitalizing on price fluctuations. Ultimately, a convertible bond functions as a CALL OPTION; thus, as the MSTR stock price experiences greater volatility, the premium on the call increases. Recently the value of these convertible bonds has surged by 170%. This is precisely why investors are unconcerned about interest rates or the actual conversion of the bonds—they have ZERO desire to convert! The reason? Issuing new shares would only dilute their holdings!
All the rewards with none of the risks!
But what happens if MSTR collapses? Bondholders will seize all the Bitcoin MSTR possesses, leaving shareholders with nothing but scraps!
Can you fathom how deep this MSTR Ponzi scheme really is?
The more you explore, the more mental acrobatics you need to perform to grasp the situation!
Many believe that bond buyers are naive, but in reality, they are the sharpest players in the game, reaping the benefits without facing the risks! In the current climate, that’s the nature of volatility! It doesn’t matter if MSTR’s stock price fluctuates; they’re insulated from the fallout. Who do you think is betting against MSTR? It’s the bondholders, and their positions are secure!
Ultimately, for someone to profit, someone else must incur a loss, and it won’t be the bondholders. This means that regular shareholders are poised for significant losses, as the primary force driving MSTR’s stock price is its own volatility. Once that volatility dissipates, we could see MSTR plummet below $100 a share! All those crypto enthusiasts will be left reeling, wondering how MSTR could possibly decline while Bitcoin’s value rises!!!
What’s the main effect of these convertible bonds?
They create volatility in the stock price, leading to wild swings up and down, just as we’re currently witnessing.
What occurs when the volatility subsides?
The stock price will plummet!
Many people are misdirecting their focus on metrics, technical analysis, and listening to Michael Saylor's commentary on CNBC. Instead, they should be paying attention to the volatility of MSTR's stock price, as its decline will directly impact the stock's value.
Don't be misled; even if MSTR falls below $300, it will still be overpriced and could potentially drop to under $100 per share due to the convertible bonds scheme. Claims from MSTR valuation sites that each share is backed by a certain amount of Bitcoin are misleading; the reality is that the shares are not backed by anything.
The BONDHOLDERS are the ones who possess all the Bitcoin.
There’s no such thing as a free lunch—someone has to bear the costs, and in MSTR's case, that burden will fall on the shareholders. You certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when the music stops.
It is important to maintain a clear perspective regarding cryptocurrencies; they should not be viewed as traditional investments, but rather as something more comparable to gambling.
While you may have the advantage of being an expert poker player, the only way to truly win is to cash out your profits.
Otherwise, you risk losing on MSTR and in the crypto market. GOLD (XAUUSD) — LONG SETUP May 6, 2026⚡ TWO STORIES DRIVING MARKETS TODAY:
🏦 STORY 1 — STRATEGY Q1 2026:
While Bitcoin lost 20% in Q1 2026 —
Michael Saylor bought MORE.
Strategy purchased 89,599 BTC
for $7.25 billion in Q1 alone.
Second largest quarterly purchase
in company history.
Current holdings:
→ 818,334 Bitcoin
→ Portfolio value: $64 billion
→ 3.9% of all BTC ever to exist
→ YTD return: +9.4%
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi —
all launching Bitcoin services.
Institutional adoption = permanent.
But what does this mean for GOLD?
When institutions pour billions into BTC
AND gold rises simultaneously —
it signals one thing:
FEAR of the traditional financial system.
Both gold and Bitcoin up =
smart money hedging against
dollar debasement and recession.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📉 STORY 2 — OIL CRASHED $15 TODAY:
Brent fell from $113 to $98 today.
That's a -13% move in one session.
Why? OPEC+ announced output increase
+ shipping routes clearing.
What this means for gold:
→ Lower oil = lower inflation
→ Lower inflation = Fed CAN cut rates
→ Rate cuts coming = gold surges
→ This is BULLISH for gold long-term
The recession fear narrative
is now dominant.
Gold benefits from both scenarios:
→ Recession = safe-haven demand
→ Rate cuts = weak dollar = gold up
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 TRADE SETUP:
🎯 Entry: $4,700 – $4,720
🛑 Stop Loss: $4,550
✅ Take Profit: $4,895
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.0
⏱ Timeframe: Short-term (2-3 days)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 BULLISH FACTORS:
🟢 Oil crashed -13% = inflation falls
= Fed rate cuts possible = gold up
🟢 Strategy $7.25B BTC buy =
institutional fear of fiat system
🟢 Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citi
all launching Bitcoin services
= institutional hedge demand rising
🟢 Dow above 50,000 = risk-on
but gold also rising = structural bid
🟢 Recession fears = safe-haven demand
🟢 Gold back above $4,700 support ✅
🟢 JPMorgan target: $6,300
🟢 Central banks buying record amounts
🔴 RISK FACTORS:
- Oil crash = reduced geopolitical fear
= some gold selling
- Break below $4,550 = stop hit
- Fed stays hawkish despite oil drop
- Strong economic data = risk-on
= gold under pressure
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌍 TODAY'S MARKET SNAPSHOT:
🥇 Gold: $4,712 ↑
🛢️ Brent: $98.00 ↓↓ (-13% today!)
₿ Bitcoin: $82,550 ↑ (above $80K)
📊 Dow Mini: 50,020 ↑ (50K broken!)
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1787
Historic day:
→ Dow breaks 50,000 for first time
→ Bitcoin holds above $80,000
→ Oil crashes $15 in one session
→ Gold recovering to $4,712
Markets are repricing everything.
Oil fear is gone.
Rate cut hopes are back.
Gold is the beneficiary.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Entry at current dip $4,700-4,720.
Target $4,895.
Stop $4,550.
Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals
on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯
⚠️ Educational purposes only.
Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏 
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