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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

EURUSD Swing Trade Idea...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends, Happy New Year and long time, no see. I wanted to share my EURUSD swing trade idea for the week. This is just my technical analysis so please check the news and cross reference your own indicators. I think it will buy and here is what I am looking at: - Momentum has been picking up for the buyers considering the last few candles on H4. - The candles have crossed and closed ABOVE previous resistance. This is a buy confirmation for me. - Candle patterns on multiple time frames show buying confirmations. - The stochastic is facing up, the fast line (blue) is above the slow line (orange) and one or both lines have crossed above 80. Additional information: - Trade is active with additional buy stops in place. - I will be using previous highs as buy stops and TPs and previous lows as my SL. Good luck if you decide to take this trade, let me know what you think in the comments
Long
by MoneyMantraCha
4
Long trade Pair MNQH Buyside trade Thu 22nd Jan 26 5.15 am LND Session AM Entry 25689.50 Profit level 25883.25 (0.75%) Stop level 25657.75 (0.12%) RR 6.1 MNQH (Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100, 15-Min) — Sentiment Summary Bias: Buy-side (intraday continuation) Session: London AM Date/Time: Thu 22 Jan 2026, 5:15 am RR: 6.1 Market Context: The broader structure remains bullish, with price holding above value after a prior corrective phase. The market recently swept sell-side liquidity into a well-defined discount zone, completing a reset before London participation. Narrative: Following the sell-side sweep, price showed bullish displacement and acceptance back above intraday value during the London AM window. We assume this signals institutional re-engagement and a shift back into continuation mode rather than further mean reversion. Liquidity & Order-Flow: Sell-side liquidity below recent lows cleared and defended Bullish FVG / value support respected on the retrace Buy-side liquidity remains resting above session highs, acting as the primary draw Execution Logic: The long entry at 25,689.50 aligns with discount mitigation + bullish continuation, with a tight stop below the defended low. Targets are positioned into buy-side liquidity, offering strong RR relative to risk. Invalidation: A decisive bearish displacement and acceptance back below the defended lows/value would invalidate the buy-side bias.
CME_MINI:MNQH2026Long
by davidjulien369
Long trade 5min TF overview Silver Futures (SI 5-Minute) — Sentiment Summary Bias: Short-term Buy-side (tactical continuation) Session: NY Session PM Context: HTF bullish → LTF pullback completed → continuation attempt Narrative: Silver remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframes following a strong impulsive expansion. After clearing sell-side liquidity and completing a corrective pullback, the price has now reacted positively from a discounted area, printing a sharp bullish response during the NY PM window. This suggests the market has completed its mean-reversion phase and is attempting to re-align with the dominant trend. Liquidity & Order-Flow: Sell-side liquidity below the range has already been cleared and defended Bullish FVGs have provided support on the retracement Acceptance above short-term structure implies buyers regaining control Execution Logic: The buy-side entry is justified after discount mitigation + bullish displacement, targeting a rotation back toward prior highs and remaining buy-side liquidity. Risk is clearly defined below the recent swing low, maintaining the setup's asymmetry and trend alignment. Invalidation: A decisive bearish displacement and acceptance below the defended lows would invalidate the buy-side bias.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by davidjulien369
NZDCHF LONG Market Structure Bullish on HTFs 3 Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi Weekly Rejection at AOi Previous Weekly Rejection Point Daily Rejection at AOi Previous Daily Structure Point Daily EMA retest Around Psychological Level 0.46000 Touching EMA H4 H4 Candlestick rejection Rejection from Previous structure TP: WHO KNOWS! Entry 125% REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability : Manage Your Risk : Be Patient : Every Moment Is Unique : Rinse, Wash, Repeat! : Christ is King.
Long
by mobbie_zw
1
Long trade USDJPY — 18-Tab Colour Framework (Buy-Side Execution) Timeframe: 15 minutes Session: London AM Date: Thu 22 Jan 2026 Bias: Buy-Side USDJPY Bias: Buy-side (Continuation after accumulation) Market Context: Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish, with price trading above value and holding a premium structure. 🟦 TAB 1 HTF market context Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish Price trading above the HTF value No HTF bearish displacement present 🟩 TAB 2 — Macro Structure Expansion → consolidation → continuation Prior impulse leg respected No structural failure on higher TFs Narrative: Price accumulated during the Asian session before London engineered a sell-side sweep, clearing weak liquidity below the range. This was followed by clean bullish displacement, confirming institutional participation. Multiple bullish FVGs and a respected London order block provided support, allowing the price to re-price higher. Execution Logic: Entry was taken after FVG mitigation and bullish structure continuation, with the stop safely below the protected low. The trade aligned with London AM continuation statistics and avoided counter-trend risk. Targets & Expectation: Upside targets were aligned with buy-side liquidity above session highs, offering a favourable asymmetric risk-to-reward profile. Trade Summary USDJPY Buy-Side continuation after sell-side sweep and London displacement. Structure intact, liquidity aligned, and targets resting above.
Long
by davidjulien369
XAU/USD 22 January 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. As per analysis of yesterday where I mentioned price could potentially continue bullish is how price printed. Currently, CHoCH positioning remains the same Price is trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Intraday expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,888.545. Alternative scenario: Price to again continue bullish. Note: The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market. Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings. Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterdays bias dated 21 January 2026. Price has continued to print higher-highs. Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH followed by bullish momentum, however, due to the insignificance of the pullback, I shall apply discretion and not classify as iBOS. This has been marked in red. Price has once again printed a bearish CHoCH. Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I shall monitor this with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to trade down to either M15 or H4 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,888.545. Note: Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions. With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common. Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Short trade Pair AUDJYP Sell-side trade Wed 21st Jan 26 NY Session PM 3.00 pm Entry 107.081 Profit level 106.574 (0.47%) Stop level 107.147 (0.062%) RR 7.68 Higher-Timeframe Sentiment Macro Bias: Late-stage Buy-side → Distribution Risk at HTF Supply Execution Bias (for this trade): Sell-side justified at a premium. 4Hr TF 4H Market Structure Narrative Primary trend: Clear bullish expansion from the April lows, with sustained higher highs / higher lows. Current location: Price has now returned to a major 4H resistance / prior distribution high (equal highs/range high). Bearish / Caution Case (Distribution Scenario) Warning signs if price fails to hold 107.00: A displacement back below 107.00 increases the odds of a deeper pullback into the London range. Market Narrative Asia → London: Clean accumulation and higher-low structure. Liquidity was engineered during Tokyo, then London delivered displacement, breaking prior range highs. London → NY: Buy-side liquidity above London highs was raided during the NY open. Price expanded aggressively, printing a session high of ~107.20. Post-raid behaviour: Momentum stalled near the highs with inefficiency (FVGs) left below, suggesting either a continuation after mitigation or distribution before a pullback. 5min TF
Short
by davidjulien369
6
ALLE Investment Grade Multi-Timeframe Long Setup*not investment advice or recommendation. Simply a reflection of how I intend to participate in this market*. ALLEGION (ALLE) - Investment Grade Multi-Timeframe Long Setup. MONTHLY TIMEFRAME: We see bullish price structure. Equally, if not more important, is the integrity of the trend. We see the bullish trend has strong integrity based on the strong ADX reading. 2Y & 4Y SMA's are rising, and we have bullish RSI momentum that is nowhere near overbought. This gives us the green light to look further on the Weekly timeframe for entries. The WEEKLY TIMEFRAME: We see on the decline since October that the weekly trend integrity is very weak (based on declining ADX during the decline). This tells us that this is a dip worth buying. We also see the 10 week (approximately 50 day) SMA turning up and back in alignment with the rising 200D SMA. The Weekly 5 period RSI has crossed and closed back above 50, indicating bullish momentum on this timeframe is back in alignment with the dominant bullish monthly trend. ENTRY: I will be buying on a stop @ 166.79. This implies bullish follow-through above the high of the weekly bar that resumed the bullish weekly momentum. Stop @ 157.80. TARGET: Based on the strong monthly trend integrity, I am looking for a move to ATH @ 180.68. I plan to peel 10% off at 1.25 R, 20% off at 2R, and leave the remaining 70% as a runner trailing based on weekly structure &/or ATR. Happy to hear thoughts and questions.
NYSE:ALLELong
by Tradius_Trades
GBPAUD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs 3 Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi Weekly Rejection at AOi Weekly Previous Structure Rejection Daily Rejection At AOi Previous Daily Structure Point Daily EMA retest Around Psychological Level 2.00500 Touching EMA H4 H4 Candlestick rejection Rejection from Previous structure TP: WHO KNOWS! Entry 125% REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability : Manage Your Risk : Be Patient : Every Moment Is Unique : Rinse, Wash, Repeat! : Christ is King.
Short
by mobbie_zw
Silver M30 HTF Liquidity Sweep and Bullish Continuation Setup📝 Description TVC:SILVER on the M30 timeframe remains within a broader bullish structure after completing a corrective pullback into a higher-timeframe demand area. Price has respected the H1 order block and is now consolidating above value, suggesting preparation for another expansion leg to the upside. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above the H1 order block and recent higher low Preferred Setup: • Entry: 94.246 • Stop Loss: Below 93.606 • TP1: 95.240 • TP2: 95.871 • TP3: 96.858 (HTF liquidity / trend continuation target) ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Market is holding above a valid H1 order block • Recent sell-side liquidity has already been swept • Upside targets align with buy-side liquidity and trendline expansion ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary As long as price holds above the H1 demand zone, Silver is expected to continue its bullish rotation toward higher buy-side liquidity levels. Pullbacks into value are considered continuation opportunities rather than reversals. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Precious metals remain supported under mixed risk sentiment and hedging flows. Any renewed weakness in the US dollar or increase in macro uncertainty may further accelerate upside momentum in Silver. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
TVC:SILVERLong
by TFlab
1
DJI H4 HTF Pullback and Bearish Continuation Setup📝 Description CAPITALCOM:US30 on the H4 timeframe is reacting after a strong impulsive bullish leg into premium pricing. Recent price action shows loss of upside momentum and a corrective distribution phase near HTF resistance, suggesting a potential bearish continuation toward lower PD arrays. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bearish while price remains below the recent H4 lower high and supply reaction zone Preferred Setup: • Entry: 48,514 • Stop Loss: Above 48,640 • TP1: 48,422 • TP2: 48,304 • TP3: 48,062 (HTF draw / deeper liquidity) ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Rejection from HTF premium and structural resistance • Current move classified as a corrective pullback within a bearish leg • H4 FVG and OB below act as natural draw targets ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary As long as price fails to reclaim the recent H4 supply zone, the expectation remains a continuation to the downside toward stacked HTF liquidity levels and unmitigated PD arrays. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Ongoing global policy uncertainty, resurfacing trade-tariff risks, and rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions and weighing on equities. With risk appetite fragile and macro headlines driving volatility, Dow Jones faces downside pressure, and rallies are likely corrective rather than trend-changing. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by TFlab
XAU/USD 21 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. As per analysis of yesterday where I mentioned price could potentially continue bullish is how price printed. Currently, CHoCH positioning remains the same Price is trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Intraday expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,888.545. Alternative scenario: Price to again continue bullish. Note: The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market. Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings. Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to print higher-highs. Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH followed by bullish momentum, however, due to the insignificance of the pullback, I shall apply discretion and not classify as iBOS. This has been marked in red. Price has once again printed a bearish CHoCH. Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I shall monitor this with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to trade down to either M15 or H4 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,888.545. Note: Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions. With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common. Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
GBPUSD H1 Liquidity Sweep and Bullish Continuation Setup📝 Description FX:GBPUSD on the H1 timeframe is trading inside a short-term bullish structure after a clear sell-side liquidity sweep. The recent impulsive move from the lower FVG suggests active demand and a shift toward higher prices, with price now consolidating above key intraday support. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above the recent H1 higher low Preferred Setup: • Entry: 1.3442 • Stop Loss: Below 1.3426 • TP1: 1.3458 • TP2: 1.3475 • TP3: 1.3491 (BSL / higher liquidity) ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Sell-side liquidity taken prior to bullish expansion • Bullish displacement confirms short-term order-flow shift • Buy-side liquidity resting above recent highs ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary As long as price remains above the swept sell-side and maintains higher lows, FX:GBPUSD is likely to continue its bullish intraday move toward buy-side liquidity. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment UK CPI y/y came in stronger than expected, reinforcing GBP strength and pushing back expectations for near-term BoE easing. At the same time, USD momentum remains weak. This backdrop favors upside continuation in GBPUSD, with pullbacks likely corrective rather than trend-changing. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
Long
by TFlab
Ethereum D1: Seller remains in controlHi traders and investors! Ethereum, daily timeframe. An interesting setup: the seller’s initiative remains in control, with a target at 2,716. There was a local buyer initiative from 2,907 to 3,447. Then the seller temporarily broke below 2,907, but this move turned out to be a manipulation of the level — the buyer quickly pushed the price back above 2,907. However, after that, the buyer failed to break the previous local high at 3,447. We saw two attempts to move higher: — the first one came with volume but was absorbed by the seller; — the second attempt showed a very strong delta, yet it was again absorbed by the seller. Conclusion: the buyer looks weak — after the manipulation of 2,907, it couldn’t continue higher or break the local high. Looking at yesterday’s daily candle, volume was accumulated around the 3,054 level. From this area (or slightly higher, around 3,100), it makes sense to look for short setups targeting 2,775, 2,716, and potentially 2,600. Profitable trades! This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
by AlexeyWolf
Bitcoin 2 day death cross doom - December 2025At the end of each 4 year cycle (October 2025 being the last around $120k), price action is followed by a 2 day death cross. “But Ww the 4 year cycle is broken!! It does not apply anymore.” “This time is different Ww” Hold that thought… The previous 2 day death crosses are shown below (in addition to the December 2025 print above), after completion of the 4 year cycle. The same conditions repeat time after time: 1. A rise to market structure. 2. A confirmation of resistance, and following deep correction over the next two years. Here are the facts that followed each previous death cross: 1. Price action would see a further 60% correction after the cross and resistance confirmation. $30k it is then, should history repeat. 2. The length of each bear market increases roughly by a factor of 1.23, see 2 week chart below. 3. 938 days x 1.23 = 1153 days for the next bear market resistance breakout, should the death cross confirm. Downtrend does not reverse until February 2029! 2 week big picture chart - the increased length of each bear market You think this time is different? That’s cute. The next bear market is going to be beyond exhausting. Influencers you’ll notice are all talk of 2026 and the “money printer” nonsense. Each black vertical line on the 2 week chart below is a 2 day death cross print. Really, look left, tell me this time is different with a straight face. This big picture is more than just another death cross. A confirmation of this idea is also a confirmation of this idea: “ Bitcoin in multi year collapse back to $1k - December 2025 ” In the old days Ponzi schemes were often referred to as “pyramid schemes”, with new members of the scheme (or scam) recruiting new money. That’s all Bitcoin has ever done in its life, recruited new sources of money. The Boomer money via ETFs and Small to Medium sized businesses added 1% or so of their cash was never adoption, it was a punt, pure and simple. 5 month chart Previous 2 day death crosses: February 2022 July 2018 September 2014 Conclusions So here we are again, the 2 day death cross turns up right on cue. The little rally everyone calls "strength" because it helps them sleep at night. Think circa $100-102k ish if price decides to do the traditional "don't worry lads, I'm fine" routine. Then reality turn up. structure gets tested, resistance gets confirmed and suddenly the market remembers it's not a Disney film. "Deep correction becomes the main event" History says after confirmation the market tends to do the unthinkable... repeatedly.. for ages. If that pattern repeats, $30k isn't crazy, it's basically the punchline. Bear markets don't just hurt, they drag. If the bear length expands (need to view higher time frames to understand the 1.23 expansion better), then the next downtrend isn't a quick dip; it's a long, grey, joyless slog. The sort of thing that makes you nostalgic for inflation. And if this cross confirms, it's not just bearish.. . it's existential. Because it doesn't merely support "cycle top then unwind"... it also strengthens the broader "multi year collapse" narrative. The one people laugh at right up until they stop laughing. Everyone shouts "THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT", of course it is.. because hope is free and accountability is expensive. Influencers will keep promising 2026 will be glorious, the "money printer" will save us as the chart does what it always does: Humiliate certainty. So the take is simple: If resistance confirms after this cross, the probability shifts toward a long, grinding bear phase, the kind that makes even true believers quietly change the subject at the family dinner. If resistance does not a confirm, we then see a "short squeeze" event. But that's not growth or adoption, it's just a short squeeze of retail traders liquidating themselves as they have done throughout 2025. Either way the death cross has a high probability of playing out. Ww Disclaimer ========================================================== This is not financial advice. It’s market commentary with a side of sarcasm. I’m not your adviser. I’m not even your mate who “knows charts.” Technical analysis is pattern recognition, not prophecy. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s astrology for people who like spreadsheets. The sample size here is tiny. Three-ish comparable events is not a law of nature, it’s a vibe with a ruler. Crypto is volatile. You can lose some, most, or all of your money, and then still have to watch influencers call it a “healthy correction.” If you trade this, do your own research, manage risk, size positions like an adult, and accept responsibility for your decisions. In short: treat this as a theory, not a guarantee. And if your entire financial plan depends on “it has to go up because I want it to”… congratulations, you’re not investing, you’re praying.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by without_worries
29
Bitcoin blow off top to $160k? - January 2026** The next 4 to 12 weeks, after that the idea is obsolete ** Without Worries has a number of bearish Bitcoin posts at the moment since the $120k area, perhaps you noticed? They are observations from a variety of timeframes, like using different lens under the microscope. This is multi-timeframe analysis. @ $110k “ Bitcoin enters 2-day Gaussian channel, 3 months of sideways?” - August 2025
 It was clear from looking left as far back as August price action was in trouble for a number of months ahead as influencers were gaslighting audiences with alt-season nonsense. @ $123k “ Is a Bitcoin crash to $40–45k next? – October 2025 ” This post generated a log of disagreement. The fact was price action has broken a multi year channel of support. @ $110.5k “ Is a visit to $100k about to print for Bitcoin? - October 15th ” During October price action began to enter the weekly Gaussian channel. A clear warning for collapse and *time* the market will spend in no mans land. Fell on deaf ears as usual! @ $90k “ A continued crash to $45k for Bitcoin? - December 2025 ” Everyone is wondering why price action crashed in the last 24hrs, Isn’t it obvious? TA works, sorry. @ $106k Perhaps the idea that will trigger the most, a 5 month chart that identifies a multi year bearish divergence following a 15 year bull market. “ Bitcoin in multi year collapse back to $1k - December 2025 ” There’s no doubt in my mind the “experiment” that is Bitcoin has failed in a dramatic way. Instead of furnishing the many with an equal distribution (Are Bitcoin maxis socialists?!), we’ve instead ended up with a system controlled by the few. I’m certain those were not Satoshi goals. What’s this business of $160k? The idea for a test of $160k before price action enters a bear market is not a new one, in fact amidst the bearish ideas Ww published “The end of Bitcoin…. begins in 40 days time @ ~$160k in Oct 2025”. Now obviously the date set in the title has now come to pass, however, the idea itself is no less valid. In this idea it is detailed how Bitcoin is rotating from growth to decline. If you’re smart, you’ll stay away from Bitcoin those next 10 years. Regardless, price action remains in an uptrend. The real test of a continued uptrend will be the $109k area. Make a note of that value. The market structure at this level is essentially the entirety of 2025. Bullish Hook reversal pattern This will be the 1st time this pattern has printed on Bitcoin. Let me repeat, this pattern has never printed on the 10 day chart of Bitcoin in its 16 year history. Go’ann, look left you’ll not find it. The complete Hook Reversal Pattern (HRP) is a psychological storyboard of market participants. Where people see price action panic, I see what people are thinking and let me tell you, it’s quite a story. HRP definition: Marks the potential end of a downtrend and the start of a energetic bullish reversal. Each candlestick in green on the main 10 day chart: 1. Psychology: Capitulation and despair. Unified panic, sellers exit the market. This is the point where raw emotion is in control. No price is too low, must get out at any cost. 2. Sellers push deep into buyer territory with little resistance. The long wick highlights the waiting buyer demand, but there’s no rush. These are smart buyers waiting for panic sellers to fill long orders, those investors allow the emotional traders to fill their positions even if that takes weeks. While retail tracks the 5 minute chart, seasoned investors are out enjoying the pistes. 3. Buyers and sellers match trading volume, an indecision candle prints. This is an inflection point. 4. Evident seller exhaustion. This one is important. Sellers have no more Bitcoins to sell. Notice the buyer volume pushing into seller territory? Sellers push back, but the selling strengthen is now remarkably weaker. At this point sellers were also buyers from the inflection point. 5. Cautious buyers enter the market, but where are sellers? Explosive energetic moves follows, shorts squeezes etc. 10 day chart of TESLA stock in April 2025 printed such a pattern before launching 50% in a very short window of time. The more you look, the most you’ll see them. Conclusions The Bearish Thesis is primary: The core analytical view, supported by multi-timeframe analysis (Gaussian channels, broken macro support, bearish divergences), points to a significant and sustained decline in Bitcoin's value, with targets ranging from $45k down to a catastrophic $1k over a multi-year period. The recent crash is framed as validation of this technical outlook. The $160k "Blow-Off Top" is a contingent: Within the overarching bearish structure, a final parabolic surge to ~$160k is proposed as a last gasp possibility, more likely than not driven by a short squeeze event with all the liquidity piling up around the $100k area. Let me be clear, this is not a bullish endorsement but rather the potential final phase of distribution before a protracted bear market. The $109k level is identified as the critical structural pivot that must be reclaimed to enable this final rally. The "Hook Reversal Pattern" is the proposed trigger, which in many respects has already confirmed. It will cause a huge FOMO like event lasting 3-12 weeks at best. (P’s if you’re reading this, remember the thesis in time post? Isn’t it a coincidence this HRP timeline shows alignment?) Anytime price action nears 90.5k, you grab it. Where does the volume that drives this move come from? No idea, however it would not be a far leap to imagine the speculation that is driving Gold and Silver markets at this time rotates into Bitcoin. Ww ======================================================== Disclaimer Right then. Let's be absolutely crystal clear, shall we? What you've just read is the financial equivalent of a man in his pants, standing on a cardboard box, yelling at pigeons. It's a story. A narrative glued together with lines on charts, patterns with silly names, and enough hindsight bias to rebuild the Titanic. I am not your financial advisor. I am, at best, a mildly observant comedian pointing at the circus and laughing. If you take any of this doom, the gloom, the magical $160k fairy tale and bet your kids' inheritance or, God forbid, your collection of novelty mugs on it, you are a plonker. So, if this happens to be right, I'm a genius. If it's wrong which, let's face it, is the overwhelming statistical likelihood…. I was just joking. It's satire. Of course I'm not ;-)
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by without_worries
25