GBP.CHF ltf entry. (Low Probability!)Low chance of this 2nd ltf setup holding out. So manage risk effectively
Break of Trendline and retest of structure.
Price is justifies to keep moving higher without tapping our discount entry because it has already mitigated 1hr OB as identified by the orange horizontal ray.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
USD/JPY longsFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing overnight.
This could mean a continuation of the dollar climbing out of that deep hole.
Higher highs were created from a strong demand, this demand was respected and it starts to break inner structure. Overall UJ is still in a higher timeframe consolidation.
But looking at the fundamentals, the possibility of a rising dollar will be higher than that price will fall some more. They will have to prevent the recession at any cost.
NZDCAD: Weak Bearish SignalThis pair is interesting, but must be approached with caution.
Daily Timeframe:
Price crosses below HTL, but the overall daily price action is quite chaotic so should proceed with caution
H1 Timeframe:
Price fails to make a new higher high on the intraday timeframe, which is a good sign that this uptrend is weakening
There's also greater confluence with the overall downtrend as price crosses below ATL
Another indication of downtrend is price below EMA20 and EMA20 is pushing below EMA60
XAU/USD 23 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs. This is continuing.
As per my analysis of yesterday, dated 22 September 2025, whereby I mentioned price could potentially continue to print higher-highs. This is how price printed, showing little to no signs of pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a horizontal blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation, price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,780,515.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory, printing all-time-highs.
Although price has printed a number of bearish CHoCH's, I will apply discretion and not classify them as such due to the insignificance of the pullback relative to recent price action.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Await for price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY Price Action SetupsThe rally on GBP/JPY has stalled around a major resistance level, which could give bears the upper hand over the near term. While AUD/JPY looks like it could go on to push higher, it also looks like it is in need of at least a minor pullback.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
GBPNZD: Trend ContinuationMomentum is picking again on the GBPNZD pair. Here are my observations on the daily and H1 timeframes.
Daily Timeframe:
HTL marks a resistance turned support
Price is also exiting the EMA areas, which is an indication of momentum
H1 Timeframe:
Price shows momentum as it crossed above the DTL
Price shows confluence with higher timeframe trend as it holds above EMA20
Uptrend is signaled by EMA20 remaining above EMA60
Short trade
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: AUDNZD
Trade Type: Sell-side trade
Date: Sun 21st Sept 2025
Session: Tokyo Session PM
TF: 1H
Trade Details:
Entry: 1.12758
Profit Level: 1.12205 (+0.33%)
Stop Level: 1.12896 (–0.10%)
RR: 3.8
Smart Money / PD Array Narrative:
Target: Discount PD Array (0.75)
Idea based on 5-point mapping:
1. Accumulation → Buyers absorbed before exhaustion.
2. Distribution → Supply zone formed around premium pricing.
3. Sweep → Liquidity engineered above high (point 5), triggering short entry.
4. Manipulation → The Market provided a false push-up into imbalance.
5. Entry (Sell-side trade) → Triggered at a premium level with a downside aim toward a discount.
Technical Narrative:
Trade aligns with bearish market structure following exhaustion at swing high.
Volume spike indicated smart money distribution into buy-side liquidity.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) and PD Array confluence provided a high-probability entry.
Stop set tightly above the distribution high, minimising risk exposure.
Target placed at discount draw (0.75 retracement) to capture the imbalance fill.
Silver To The Mooooon!!Several factors have come together to make silver especially attractive.
Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts / Lower Real Yields
Markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non‐yielding assets like silver.
Real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) have been weak or falling, making silver more appealing.
Weak U.S. Dollar
When the USD weakens, commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand.
Safe-Haven / Inflation Hedge Demand
Geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and fears of inflation make precious metals attractive. Silver benefits both as an industrial metal and a hedge to some degree.
The gold-to-silver ratio is unusually high, which many see as signalling that silver is “cheap” relative to gold, suggesting more upside potential.
OILUSD Technical AnalysisWTI Crude Oil rejected the 61.717 support zone, showing buyers stepping in after the selloff. Price is now pulling back from this level, and the next reaction will determine short-term momentum.
Support at: 61.717 🔽 / 59.869 🔽
Resistance at: 63.090 🔼 / 64.576 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Holding above 61.717 could allow buyers to target 63.090, with a break higher opening 64.576.
🔽 Bearish: A clean break below 61.717 exposes 59.869 as the next downside target.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Pullback Trade From Support
WTI Crude Oil looks oversold after a test of a significant
daily horizontal demand zone.
A formation of a bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame
indicates a strength of that structure.
With a high probability, the price will pull back to 62.38
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AUDCHF: Weak TrendMomentum is beginning to pick up on the AUDCHF pair. This is based on the EMA behavior along with price's behavior around the ATLs plotted. Here are my observations across two key timeframes.
Daily Timeframe:
Price crosses below ATL > first indication of momentum picking up
EMA20 is beginning to move away from EMA60 > second indication of momentum
H1 Timeframe:
EMA20 diverges away from EMA60 > indication of momentum
Price crosses below intraday HTL > confluence with overall downtrend if there isn't a liquidity trap
CADJPY LONG Market structure bullish on HTFs 3
Entry on both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Weekly EMA retest
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily Previous Structure Point
Touching EMA H4
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Broadcom Rallied. Now it’s Pulled Back.Broadcom surged to new record highs two weeks ago and now it’s pulled back.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the gap on September 5 after results beat estimates and management revealed a new large customer. That surge may reflect bullish sentiment in the chip stock.
Second, AVGO went on to make a weekly low of $335.83 two sessions later. Last Friday, it bounced slightly above that level. Is new support in place?
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. MACD has also surged. Those signals may reflect short-term bullishness.
Next, AVGO is an active underlier in the options market. That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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EURNZD: More Growth Ahead! 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD broke a significant daily resistance cluster on Friday, providing
a confirmed bullish BoS.
We see a retest of a broken structure today, with a consequent consolidation on that.
A bullish violation of its intraday resistance leaves another bullish clue.
I think the pair will rise more and reach 2.015 soon.
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XAU/USD 22 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously, and has now for the third time, printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I have again marked this in red.
Price has again continued with it's bullish trajectory. We are now trading within an internal high and fractal low. ChoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,720,020.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory, printing all-time-highs.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Await for price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Long trade
30min TF overview
Pair: ETHUSDT
Direction: Buyside trade
Date/Session: Fri 19th Sept 2025, NY Session PM
Timeframe: 30-Min
🔹 Trade Details
Entry: 4461.47
Profit Level: 4855.75 (+8.89%)
Stop Level: 4416.04 (-1.00%)
Risk-Reward (RR): 8.59
🔹 Technical Structure
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
Overhead FVGs at ~4655 – 4855 are acting as a potential magnet for liquidity.
Liquidity Levels:
Clear sweep of prior lows around 4460 (stop hunt/liquidity grab).
Buyside liquidity resting above 4650–4700.
Order Blocks / Demand Zones:
Strong demand block at ~4450–4460 region, now acting as support.
🔹 Indicators
RSI: Deeply oversold (below 30), hinting at bullish reversal probability.
Volume: Large spike at lows, confirming stop run and potential smart money entry.
Moving Averages: Price reclaiming short-term EMA, indicating early momentum shift.
🔹 Narrative / Trade Rationale
Market engineered a stop hunt into demand at 4460 before reversing.
High volume and RSI oversold strengthen the buy-side reversal case.
The trade aims to capitalise on the move back into inefficiencies (FVGs) left behind by the previous sell-off.
Long trade
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: SOLUSDT
Direction: Buyside trade
Date/Session: Sat 20th Sept 2025, NY Session AM
Timeframe: 15-Min
🔹 Trade Details
Entry: 237.713
Profit Level: 281.830 (+18.53%)
Stop Level: 236.150 (-0.79%)
Risk-Reward (RR): 24.25
🔹 Technical Structure
Liquidity:
Price swept BSL (buy-side liquidity) before reclaiming demand.
Order Blocks / Demand Zone:
15m demand zone clearly defended at ~236–237.
Market Structure:
Consolidation → sweep → displacement higher.
Structure confirms buyside intent, aiming for 280+
🔹 Indicators
Volume: A spike at the sweep low indicates sell-side exhaustion and absorption.
Range Mapping: Previous highs aligned with profit target zone.
🔹 Narrative / Trade Rationale
Trade thesis based on stop run + reclaim of demand.
Target anchored to imbalance fill and range highs near 281.
Exceptionally high RR (24.25) due to tight stop relative to target.
✅ Bias: Long (buyside continuation).
📈 Target: 281.830 (+18.53%).
🛡️ Risk: -0.79%.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Continue to Fall?!Bitcoin is currently below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its descending channel. In the event of an upward correction towards the specified supply zones, it is possible to sell Bitcoin with a better risk-reward ratio.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
Since early September, Bitcoin has shown a steady upward trend, largely fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut at the FOMC meeting and optimism about its potential impact. When the Federal Reserve finally delivered the long-anticipated 0.25% rate reduction, Bitcoin declined by only about 1%. While the crypto market currently appears somewhat lackluster, the limited reaction can be viewed as a textbook example of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic.
The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization remains above $4 trillion. According to CoinMarketCap data, the average performance of the top 20 cryptocurrencies was negative 0.43% during the past week. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at a neutral level of 51, down six points from last week, moving away from the “greed” zone.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the rate cut as “risk management” rather than a measure to support a weak economy. This framing may explain the subdued market reaction. Given that markets had already priced in a 96% probability of a 0.25% cut before the official announcement, traders effectively executed the classic playbook of buying the rumor and selling the news.
The political angle of the decision also added uncertainty. Steven Miran, the newly appointed Fed member and former economic adviser to Trump, cast the only dissenting vote, advocating for a larger 0.5% cut instead of the 0.25% reduction.
A chart circulating in the market highlights potential liquidation zones. Prices below spot indicate long positions at risk of liquidation, while prices above spot point to short liquidations. At present, the Max Pain level for longs sits at $112.7K, while the Max Pain level for shorts is at $121.6K, with spot Bitcoin trading around $117.2K. This illustrates the market’s fragile balance—downward movement could trigger long liquidations, whereas an upward breakout may unleash a wave of short squeezes toward recent highs.
Michael Saylor hinted at possible additional purchases, remarking: “The orange dots are moving upward.” He also described Bitcoin as a calm, fair, and impartial tool for resolving conflicts among people.
Meanwhile, last week the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved new general standards that pave the way for broad-scale issuance of crypto-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These regulations allow exchanges such as NYSE, Nasdaq, and Cboe to list spot market crypto ETFs without case-by-case reviews.
As a result, the approval timeline for ETFs has been shortened from over 240 days to around 75 days, greatly simplifying the process for asset managers. Dozens of new ETFs for cryptocurrencies like Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Dogecoin are expected to launch starting in October. This development effectively ends a decade-long case-by-case review process that dates back to the first Bitcoin ETF application in 2013.
While the Trump administration supported progressive crypto regulation, this approach contrasts with the slower regulatory stance seen under Biden. Despite the regulatory breakthrough, firms stress that legal work, marketing efforts, and support services are still required to successfully launch these ETFs.
ADA — Fib Harmony With EMA/SMA SupportADA has been in a downtrend for the past 18 days and is now approaching a cluster of key support levels. Today, price tapped the 0.702 Fib retracement ($0.7841) — an optimal area for long entries.
The main focus, however, is the 0.786 Fib retracement, which aligns with a liquidity pocket and multiple layers of confluence, making it the most ideal entry zone.
🧩 Confluence at 0.702–0.786 Fib Zone
0.702–0.786 Fib retracement → prime long entry range
Liquidity pocket → sitting around the 0.786 Fib
200 EM ($0.7424) / 200 SMA ($0.726) (daily)
21 EMA ($0.766) / 21 SMA ($0.735) (weekly)
Pitchfork lower support line → intersecting the zone
0.618/0.666 Fib Speed Fan → adding another support layer
🟢 Long Trade Setup
Entry Zone: 0.702–0.786 Fib retracement
Best Entry: Around the 0.786 Fib
Stop-Loss: Below $0.70 (to be adjusted after seeing more price action)
Target (TP): $1.1757 (–0.618 Fib, in confluence with key high & buy-side liquidity at $1.1747)
Potential Move: +50%
R:R: ~1:4.5 up to 1:7 (depending on entry)
Technical Insight
ADA is testing deeper retracements within its current downtrend, the 0.702–0.786 Fib zone combines structural, dynamic, and liquidity-based confluence.
The added support of the weekly 21 EMA/SMA strengthens this area as a pivotal level for bulls to defend.
If held, this zone could fuel a swing long setup with great upside potential.
The $1.1747–$1.1757 zone is both a high-confluence take-profit area and a potential short opportunity, given the liquidity resting above that level.
🔍 Indicators used
LuxAlgo — Liquidity Sentiment Profile (Auto-Anchored)
Multi Timeframe 8x MA Support Resistance Zones → to identify support and resistance zones such as the weekly 21 EMA/SMA
➡️ Available for free. You can find it on my profile under “Scripts” and apply it directly to your charts for extra confluence when planning your trades.
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