if we hold this uptrend on the 1 minute or we loose it and regain it holding these lows we end up over 18k. the last resistance is the higher pivot and the lower pivot is the last 1 monute low. over 17k roughly is the level to long, while normally in this beararket 17k is a huge sell the rip level.
if we see downside in semiconductors and rotation between sectors tha is slower and more masured leading to slower losses in indices, and the countertrend movement breaks out into a larger rebound i would call this the beginning of a broader market recovery. the inverse is that we traverse slightly lower, and extend backwardation with resistance around estimate...
hourly threatens to return to bear momo with price right around estimate and dropping. got a channel, path and support/resistance/pivot drawn. were likely headed into another drop in this overall sideways action.
if we get continuation on hourly uptrend we could complete or confirm daily bull reversal. these are levels and patterns i am watching for based on sss and nadaraya watson. tsla is close to breakout levels, and is testing weekly mid range short term.
dollar up, crypto down
id like to take a moment of silence for all the 2022 bulls.
were in a basement btcusd and will stay there until monthly log support shapes up. 17k still likely to hit, but we will have months of essentially sideways action at this rate. unless something changes, the daring bet is scalping this weekly sideways between 17 and 15. after we...
the fundamental aspects of why weve bounced are still very much up in the air. this is causing uncertainty, and thats leading to profit taking. from a technical standpoint the rebound is strong, but if we zoom in we find momentum has not completed a reversal. id imagine this means we are in for a revisit of signal, estimate, sss ma and finally bottom of envelope....
top of envelope is typically a pullback level when estimate is changing directions. sss ma is resistive and supply zone is sinking. i wouldnt be surprised to see a pattern similar to the ghost feed.
during capitulation selling in spx vix has much steeper move up, but right now it is making gradual gains alongside a market that is selling big names like tsla at an astonishing rate. if we finally decide to bottom expect uvxy to head back down toward signal, sss ma, vwap and bottom of envelope. if we break to new lows uvxy should head right ip outside the top of...
the fed isnt interested in saving the market. it only cares that it delays the maximum selling until late in the year. they want choppy action because this allows them to scare retail out and institutions can scale horizontally. were likely to hit signal, sss ma, trama and rebound. uvxy is a sell if we get to top of envelope or we break pivot and continue lower....
its fantastic that major indices are still managing to find areas of support on the way down. this to me is indicating when we do finally recover it will happen in a reliable manner. its also telling me that these areas are not max pain. to find a bottom permenantly id like to see bullishly diverged oversold levels in high volume. right now signal is still red,...
there may be confirmation of a bottom if we continue this pullback to higher levels daily bitcoin. by every measure theres been a slow daily grind up after the last distributive weekly move. if we retrace to a reasonable lwvel i imagine reviaiting trama isnt a problem. thats about 10% up. envelope is fonally tilting up although sss ma is still acting as...
why do we pay so much to securitize capital? anyway were coming to a head with front month spx futures. the s&p is reacing the bottom end of envelope, and revisiting trama or sss ma seems likely. i bet if we breech pivot we see upper horizontals, and if that lwvel resistswe see lower. if vix is raging monday im still not interested in calls until we see bullish...
whether we blow through this vwap and smash though the sss supple zone, or pull back to retest sssma and trama, it looks like the upper nadaraya watson envelope gets touched again. im waiting on another sell signal from that strategy. it seems like theres this scenario where the vix gaps up and takes off, but more measured and muted drawdown has been the norm for...
vix and vix products are selling off outside upper envelope. if we remain in a daily uptrend there could be room to jump back in but my guess is the market is bouncing for now.
either we hit this weekly sss demand zone and bounce, or we blow through it and make new lows. we are at bottom of envelope, and it appears to be turning. if sss signal stays red and we break 362.17 i thikk were in for 350.77 if not much lower around 320. if we bounce off that 363 level, and we get over the 377 range ithink were in for 396 maybe 405. horizontals...
i wont be surprised if the greenback looses steam around the top of this envelope and revisits trama, bounces to form a lower high, and rolls over to form a h&s. the key is getting a sell signal near the top there.
were at the lower end of this nadaraya watson envelope, and it looks like nasdaq is at least going to pull back to SSS moving average or TRAMA. if we get a buy signal near the lows i think price could follow this path.
