My concerns of anything more than a pullback are subsiding, Chinese PMI is in expansion once more which is confirming that the majority of poor economic performance is likely finished.
Over the next 6 months we expecting to see hard data underperform, compounded with a rising dollar it is a headwind for equities.
Over the past week, my tone has switched a little more bearish. I was advocating for a blow-off top in equities before this cycle ends, however, on a second look at the data the leading indicators are continuing to show weakness over the coming 6 months. Certain aspects of the economic data are positive however, which makes it difficult to be outright bearish or...
When you short a stock you are taking on infinite risk, if the roles were reversed I would not be as tactical with this position. For now, it looks like we will trade slightly higher before another opportunity to short appears.
We have rallied a long way since the lows, markets are not linear and the price will have to digest the move.
What will likely drive the markets higher is earning, a contrarian but realistic outcome when you consider that wage growth is outperforming inflation by almost 3%.
This, of course, would likely lead to a price rally while earnings multiples are falling!