Yesterday, the markets continued to expect a war between Russia and Ukraine, but the level of confidence in its prospects began to decline. And behind it, oil and gold quotes began to decline, as well as stock markets to grow. In addition, prices for natural gas and agricultural products (grain) were falling. Considering that the current prices largely took into...
And although traditionally all the headlines are devoted to divination around Ukraine, we should not forget about the tectonic shifts taking place in the global financial system. This, of course, is about changing the vectors of the monetary policies of the Central Banks and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve. So St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that...
Last week was remembered first of all by the inflation statistics from the USA. No joke, 7.5% growth in consumer prices. This has not happened since the early 1980s. Actually, after such figures, it became completely clear to everyone that inflation would not disappear by itself and strong antipyretic drugs were needed. This, of course, is about raising rates by...
The main event of yesterday can undoubtedly be considered the publication of inflationary data from the US (consumer inflation). We already wrote that given the current prices for energy resources, industrial metals and agricultural products, as well as their dynamics (permanent growth) and the dynamics of wages, one cannot count on a reduction in inflationary...
A couple of months ago, we wrote about the main threats to the global economy and financial markets in 2022. Inflation, a pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains - that's what worried market participants around the world. And although 2022 has just begun, there is a feeling that thanks to Omicron, with its super contagiousness, with relatively mild...
On Thursday, another portion of inflation statistics from the United States will be published, and Bank of America, anticipating its next increase, announced its forecast for the number of Fed rate hikes in 2022. The number of expected promotions is impressive - 7 pieces. This is the most aggressive forecast to date from leading experts. As an additional...
The start of 2022 turned out to be extremely successful for the oil market (since the beginning of the year, oil has added about 20%). Although many predicted that the market would go from deficit to surplus by this time, apparently this has not yet happened. At least, the presence of backwardation in the oil market speaks in favor of this. Recall that...
Bank of England and ECB, ADP and NFP, reporting and OPEC The past week was exceptionally rich in terms of news and, accordingly, was characterized by high volatility. The Bank of England expectedly raised the rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 0.5%. This was the first two consecutive rate hikes since 2004. The motivation is inflation, which is predicted to rise...
The news attention of the markets yesterday was riveted not to the US, but to Europe. The Bank of England and the ECB announced their decisions on the parameters of monetary policy. As expected, the Bank of England raised the rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 0.5%. Recall that at the previous meeting the rate was also increased, but by 0.15%. That is, we have two rate...
The most interesting and noteworthy in yesterday's news background is, perhaps, the data on US employment from ADP. Yes, the markets are much more interested in official figures in the form of NFP, and the correlation between NFP and ADP is about 25%, but still this is an indicator that directly characterizes the US labor market. So yesterday, according to ADP,...
Bias remains the same for this pair Despite DXY going wild Crude oil is also in quite a volatile range for CAD ASP news this morning was very poor for the USD However we have only see DXY appreciate since the news This is because USD is a safe haven despite the worlds largest economy having bad employment numbers. We would like to see a continuation of bull...
We already wrote that there is a competition among analysts and experts who will predict more rate hikes from the Fed in 2022. Some consensus is in the region of 3-4 increases. Although there are extreme cases like 7 promotions. In general, the markets thoroughly wound themselves up. The Fed, seeing this, decided to reassure the public a little. This week,...
January ended for the US stock market on a positive note, which, however, does not negate the fact that the month was one of the worst in history. To recap: S&P 500 down 5% (worst since March 2020), Dow down over 3% (worst since October 2020), Nasdaq Composite down 9% in January (or 12% from highs) November), making January the worst month for the index since...
Even despite Friday, the past week can hardly be called successful for risky assets. Rather, she just managed at the last moment not to become a failure. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is gearing up for its worst January ever. Formally, the main reason for buyers' pain was and remains the US Central Bank, which was very aggressive last week, announcing the end of the...
The main event of yesterday, which breathed a little optimism into the financial markets, was the publication of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2021. With an average growth forecast of 5.5%, in fact, 6.9% came out. The figure itself is great, and if you remember all the difficulties, from omicron to problems with logistics, then the joy of buyers in the US...
The main event of yesterday, and of the week as a whole, was the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee. Not to say that there were any special surprises, but the general hawkish tone of the Central Bank gave another reason for the sell-off in the US stock market. Of the main results, it is worth noting the fact that the...
The financial markets are exceptionally restless and volatile. Tellingly, there is no unity among financial market participants. As a result, the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market are frantically chatting. Perhaps the direction will return to the price dynamics tonight. Everyone is waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the two-day meeting of...
Yesterday were published data on business activity in Europe from Markit. On the one hand, everything seems to be not bad: business activity in the service sector and manufacturing is growing (indices above 50). On the other hand, in most cases the data came out worse than expected, and in the service sector of the Eurozone it is generally at the lowest level...