Everyone on this planet seems to know about the current situation around Ukraine and Russia, so we will not retell the latest news and events. We only note that there is always a chance to stop the escalation. However, from the position of game theory in the current situation, it is more profitable to be a pessimist, because you will either be right or gladly...
We already wrote that the level of geopolitical tension is now easiest to assess not even by the usual VIX Index (aka Fear Index), but by the dynamics of oil and gold prices. So yesterday, both assets were growing, hinting that we are entering the next local peak.
But imagine that common sense has not gone away. He is here, he is with us, and no one is going to...
Last week, the information tension around Russia and Ukraine reached its local peak, since February 16 was the date the US announced the start of the war. Despite the fact that the date has passed without any excesses, the shadow of the war has tightly covered the financial markets and is not thinking of retreating yet.
Perhaps the two main indicators of the...
Due to the fact that the Dow Jones index showed the worst day in 2022 yesterday, and Nasdaq has lost about 15% over the past month and a half, more and more investors are interested in the question: “Isn't it time to start buying?”.
Outwardly, the question looks more than natural: “buy the dip” is one of the pillars of investing, and if we put “fear of missing...
Markets are falling due to uncertainty caused by the latest events on Ukraine, etc.
I think most panic sellers left the market during the last sell off on the second half of January. So, there is a lower probability to see a lower low.
Crisis brings opportunity, It is hard to say, but in such horrible situations, like on the brink of a war, whales are...
The main event of yesterday in terms of news, of course, was the absence of war. As a result, the mood on the eve of the publication of data on retail sales in the US was optimistic.
Markets were expecting US retail sales to rise 2%. But the fact exceeded the most optimistic expectations: retail sales rose by 3.8% in January. The reasons are not only the growth...
Yesterday, the markets continued to expect a war between Russia and Ukraine, but the level of confidence in its prospects began to decline. And behind it, oil and gold quotes began to decline, as well as stock markets to grow. In addition, prices for natural gas and agricultural products (grain) were falling.
Considering that the current prices largely took into...
And although traditionally all the headlines are devoted to divination around Ukraine, we should not forget about the tectonic shifts taking place in the global financial system. This, of course, is about changing the vectors of the monetary policies of the Central Banks and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve.
So St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that...
Last week was remembered first of all by the inflation statistics from the USA. No joke, 7.5% growth in consumer prices. This has not happened since the early 1980s. Actually, after such figures, it became completely clear to everyone that inflation would not disappear by itself and strong antipyretic drugs were needed. This, of course, is about raising rates by...
The main event of yesterday can undoubtedly be considered the publication of inflationary data from the US (consumer inflation). We already wrote that given the current prices for energy resources, industrial metals and agricultural products, as well as their dynamics (permanent growth) and the dynamics of wages, one cannot count on a reduction in inflationary...
A couple of months ago, we wrote about the main threats to the global economy and financial markets in 2022. Inflation, a pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains - that's what worried market participants around the world.
And although 2022 has just begun, there is a feeling that thanks to Omicron, with its super contagiousness, with relatively mild...
On Thursday, another portion of inflation statistics from the United States will be published, and Bank of America, anticipating its next increase, announced its forecast for the number of Fed rate hikes in 2022.
The number of expected promotions is impressive - 7 pieces. This is the most aggressive forecast to date from leading experts. As an additional...
The start of 2022 turned out to be extremely successful for the oil market (since the beginning of the year, oil has added about 20%). Although many predicted that the market would go from deficit to surplus by this time, apparently this has not yet happened.
At least, the presence of backwardation in the oil market speaks in favor of this. Recall that...
Bank of England and ECB, ADP and NFP, reporting and OPEC
The past week was exceptionally rich in terms of news and, accordingly, was characterized by high volatility.
The Bank of England expectedly raised the rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 0.5%. This was the first two consecutive rate hikes since 2004. The motivation is inflation, which is predicted to rise...
The news attention of the markets yesterday was riveted not to the US, but to Europe. The Bank of England and the ECB announced their decisions on the parameters of monetary policy. As expected, the Bank of England raised the rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 0.5%. Recall that at the previous meeting the rate was also increased, but by 0.15%. That is, we have two rate...
The most interesting and noteworthy in yesterday's news background is, perhaps, the data on US employment from ADP. Yes, the markets are much more interested in official figures in the form of NFP, and the correlation between NFP and ADP is about 25%, but still this is an indicator that directly characterizes the US labor market.
So yesterday, according to ADP,...
Bias remains the same for this pair
Despite DXY going wild
Crude oil is also in quite a volatile range for CAD
ASP news this morning was very poor for the USD
However we have only see DXY appreciate since the news
This is because USD is a safe haven despite the worlds largest economy having
bad employment numbers. We would like to see a continuation of bull...
We already wrote that there is a competition among analysts and experts who will predict more rate hikes from the Fed in 2022. Some consensus is in the region of 3-4 increases. Although there are extreme cases like 7 promotions. In general, the markets thoroughly wound themselves up.
The Fed, seeing this, decided to reassure the public a little. This week,...
