If There's No War, Then Where Will the Prices Go?

Yesterday, the markets continued to expect a war between Russia and Ukraine, but the level of confidence in its prospects began to decline. And behind it, oil and gold quotes began to decline, as well as stock markets to grow. In addition, prices for natural gas and agricultural products (grain) were falling.

Considering that the current prices largely took into account a certain probability of the transition of the information war into the actual one, the lack of realization of these expectations is a reason for price correction.

So the sale of oil and gold seems to us quite a promising undertaking this week. Unless, of course, you believe that the escalation will subside further. Otherwise, avoid this venture or even do everything exactly the opposite.

The fact that Russia withdrew part of its troops from the border does not really mean anything. So we continue to follow the development of events, while not forgetting that there is also the economy with its laws and indicators.

So, employment in the eurozone in the last quarter of 2021 exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and unemployment in the region generally reached a record low in December.

The times of pandemic restrictions seem to be coming to an end as more and more countries are not only not implementing lockdowns, but rather lifting restrictions, even such as wearing masks.

And finally, about the US stock market. Its growth under a friendly exhalation of relief is almost inevitable, but, in our opinion, it will be short-term and will last exactly as long as the Fed does not return it to the ground with reminders of monetary tightening. So we use growth as an opportunity to sell higher. Moreover, yesterday's data on manufacturing inflation in the US grew much stronger than forecasts.