The main event of yesterday in terms of macroeconomic statistics was the publication of statistics on the UK labor market. The data pleasantly surprised. Recall that we expected rather weak statistics - the British economy has been painfully unconvincing in recent times. Nevertheless, the UK economy for three months until November created 208K new jobs, which is...
Monday turned out to be a fairly calm day for financial markets. The reason on the surface is a day off in the USA. So today it will almost certainly be more volatile and interesting. The Bank of Japan set the pace to the news background early in the morning. Monetary policy parameters were left unchanged. The press conference will be somewhat later than the...
The previous week was rich in important events, some of which can be formally classified as “game changers”, but judging by the dynamics of prices in the financial markets, the game did not undergo any special changes. Let's start with the most global. The United States and China signed documents on the first part of the trade deal. But there was no euphoria -...
After the United States and China completed the first phase of negotiations, the result of which was not as rosy as many expected, the markets decided to take a break and continued to develop existing trends. Note that the current optimism has exhausted itself. But the negative on the horizon more than enough. Only the first step has been taken. Now the parties...
The US and China have signed documents for the first phase of the trade deal. It would seem that this has been expected for a very long time and this is an excellent occasion for a mass exodus from safe-haven assets and another injection of capital into risky assets. But it was not there. Gold yesterday was more than comfortable, and the Japanese yen in the...
Tuesday in the news plan was noted by the information that the United States excluded China from the list of currency manipulators countries. This led to yet another sigh of relief among investors that already are in a rather relaxed on the eve of the signing of the documents on the first phase of the trade agreement between the US and China. But at the same...
As we announced, this week is extremely full of various kinds of macroeconomic statistics. As yesterday's UK data showed, one should prepare for surprises and most likely with a “-” sign. Data on GDP (-0.3% with a forecast of 0%) and industrial production in the UK (-1.2% with a forecast of 0%) justified the worst fears of experts. The only positive point of...
Last week ended for the dollar is not the best way. Statistics on the US labor market came out slightly worse than expected: +145K new jobs outside agriculture instead of the expected +160K. On the one hand, it’s okay, but on the other hand, after +200K of employment from ADP, it seems to be not enough. On the whole, our predictions for NFPs based on statistical...
Optimism and belief in a bright future are generally quite positive things, but you should not abuse them, because this is fraught with a separation from reality. What we observed in the last couple of days in the financial markets, in our opinion, was that separation from reality. Asset prices are as if there were no killing of Suleimani, mutual threats from the...
Yesterday was oversaturated and accordingly super volatile. Although it is worth noting that the strength of the counter-movements significantly exceeded our expectations. On days like yesterday, traders either make a fortune or (which happens much more often) lose their deposits. Often the reason for the loss of the deposit is excessive greed on the one hand and...
The conflict between the US and Iran as long as it continues to develop in the verbal plane. In response to Trump’s 52 goals, Iran has developed 13 scenarios for causing maximum damage to the United States in response to the assassination of General Soleimani, who killed about 50 people in a crush yesterday. According to Iran, even the weakest of these scenarios...
Yesterday's opening brought gold to the highest mark since 2013. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, gold is by far the best hedge against geopolitical risks. We generally agree with this and continue to recommend buying the asset, since we believe that the mark of 1800 is an achievable goal for gold this year. But it is much more promising trading ideas in...
In the news plan, the year began extremely unsuccessfully. The elimination of Iranian general Kassem Suleymani (he was the second most important in Iran after the main ayatollah) was headline news. We wrote about in our weekend reviews “Escape to safe-haven Assets Activated: $ 1800 Gold” and “Will the Suleyman Killing Become a Black Swan for the US Stock...
The Dow Jones Index is showing the longest period of growth in its history. Given that this growth is completely divorced from economic development, even the most avid bulls in the US stock market are beginning to doubt about prospects: the growth is clearly out of control. There is another fact: when the market grows very rapidly in a very short period, it...
We have repeatedly noted in our reviews that the historical highs of the US stock market is direct merit of the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Fed. The Central Bank poured money into the US financial market, however, everything that it could achieve was the formation of a record-high bubble in the stock market. So we emphasize the scale of what is happening....
Caution is required from the thin market perspective also we expect an increased likelihood of volatility explosions on the market. As we turn to 2020, the year promises to be extremely difficult and eventful. Whether this year will be a year of crisis, we will see, actually we would bet on a crisis. In this regard, we expect massive sales on world stock markets,...
The period of the Christmas holidays is traditionally characterized by low liquidity in the financial markets (so-called “thin market”). So you can increase the level of aggressiveness in trading to the maximum due to the relatively insignificant volatility. But at the same time, the probability of flash crashes and sharp inexplicable jumps in volatility during...
The pound had dropped below 1.30 earlier in the week. AUDUSD gained a foothold above the resistance level of 0.6900. If this breakdown turns out to be stable, then a wide space opens up for the AUDUSD for further growth to at least 0.7020 or even 0.7200. Since AUDUSD is above 0.6900, its purchases seem to us profitable. But in any case, remember the Australian...