The US and China have traditionally been optimistic about the progress in the negotiations, but apparently, the markets no longer respond to this. If you yell “wolf”, in the end, people will no longer come. Something similar we can see in the negotiation process between China and the United States. They have been optimistic for more than a month, but there is no...
On Monday markets were waiting for the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the US and China. This time, a positive signal was China's willingness to increase the punishment for violating intellectual property rights. China's regular violations of these rights that particularly irritated the United States and largely hindered...
The volatility in the foreign exchange market reached its minimum in recent years. The VIX Fear Index was also confidently at the bottom. The absence of significant events entailed the absence of strong movements in the foreign exchange market. Friday perhaps was the exception. Another weak statistics from the Eurozone and the UK contributed to the activation of...
The situation in Hong Kong continues to escalate. Trump promises to sign a scandalous law to support demonstrators, which is extremely describing China. And although the US and China declare progress in the negotiations, in such conditions, it can break at any moment. So we continue to look for points for purchases of gold and the Japanese yen. As for the other...
The other day we wrote about the calm prevailing in the financial markets and the absence of “black swans”, which can turn the situation upside down and provoke a sharp surge of volatility. Judging by how events are developing, Hong Kong could become such a “game-changer”. And the point here is not even the intensification of protest activity in the country and...
Black swans did not fly by, and there were no important macroeconomic statistics or news injections either on the financial markets. In general, the lull that has lately reigned in the financial markets is lingering and the silence begins to become painful. Usually, it all ends with a storm. But a storm needs a trigger. For example, Trump’s next demarche and the...
Yesterday against the positive comments from the US and China regarding trade negotiations, safe-haven assets were under pressure. That is not surprising. Recall our position on gold and the Japanese yen – is to buy, however, now we should trade with an eye to a possible surge of optimism in the financial markets against the background of breaking news from...
We continue writing a series of posts on the possible collapse of the US stock market. We have already written about the gigantic gap that formed between the growth rate of the US stock market (especially its technological sector) and the growth rate of the country's economy. This is a classic example of the formation beginning of a price bubble, which, at the end...
This week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was speaking to Congress. He the things that may modify the state of the foreign exchange market. It is not about the Fed rates and the monetary policy vector, but about problems that have been trying not to talk about, because attracting attention to them is a very risky idea. We are talking about the so-called “three Ds”...
Unfortunate week for oil buyers. Following the news about a possible increase in supply and weak demand growth in the future, as well as Morgan Stanley's forecasts about a 25-30% reduction in market prices. Another disappointing news. The agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO), published that oil demand peaks within the next 10 years. Recall that this week Saudi...
The current week is full of informational events around the oil market. Which continues to play into the hands of sellers. Yesterday, for example, Morgan Stanley analysts warned that if OPEC + participants at their next meeting on December 5 do not announce a higher reduction in production (current volumes of 1.2 million barrels), then Brent quotes will drop to $...
Yesterday marked of news regarding the oil market and its prospects. Moreover, this news has a one-sided impact in terms of the impact on oil quotes. On the supply side, we have a message about the discovery of a huge oil field in Iran. It is about 50 billion barrels. To understand if it is a lot, let’s have a look at the statistics. Proved oil reserves in Iran...
The previous week, promised to be relatively calm, however, it turned out to be eventful. Gold and the Japanese yen were under downward pressure. The reason is the progress in negotiations between the US and China as well as the growth of positive market expectations regarding the end of trade wars in the foreseeable future. The main result of the week was the...
Thursday was not full in events however we could observe some movements that were mainly focused on safe-haven assets, in which a mass exodus of traders was observed. You do not have to guess what is markets concern about, just look throughout the dynamics of gold or the Japanese yen, you can see is there any progress or not in negotiation between the USA and...
Looking at the EURUSD daily chart, it clearly shows that it has come to a very important support level. That is a great reason for its purchasing. The stops are relatively small - about 30-40 points, and the profits, in this case, are about 100 points (the nearest strong resistance is located in the region of 1.1160). That is, purely technically, taking into...
In our previous review, we noted that the publication of the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector will be the main event. The ISM index of business activity in the services sector reached 54.7 in October (analysts expected 53.5, before 52.6). As a result, the USD strengthened. “I think it’s a good time though to pause...and that’s what I am...
This week, as we noted yesterday, will not be rich in fundamental events, so markets have focused on the trade war. China deal is likely to be signed in November. Added to this positive news the information that the United States may not set tariffs on imported cars from Europe and Japan. Naturally, the safe-haven assets adjusted against this background. Despite...
Japan, Canada and the USA central banks' decisions, U.S. and Eurozone GDP latest statistics, as well as data on the US labour market 7 days latest news. In principle, each event from this list would be enough to fill the average week. As for the political aspect: a signal about possible problems in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the next...