Long
Nike's Comeback Story Is Still Missing One ThingNike's fourth quarter looked impressive at first glance.. Reported EPS jumped more than fivefold to $0.72 But most of that increase came from a one time $986 million tariff recovery tied to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which boosted gross margin by about 9 percentage points. Strip that out, and EPS was closer to $0.20. That's still better than the $0.13 consensus, but nowhere near the headline result
The underlying business is still shrinking. Revenue fell 1% year over year to $11.0 billion in the May quarter, about $120 million ahead of expectations. In constant currency, sales were down 4%, extending a decline that's now lasted nearly two years into Nike's turnaround
The margin illusion
Reported gross margin reached 49%, up 9 percentage points from last year and one of the highest levels in Nike's history. Almost all of that improvement came from the tariff refund. Excluding that benefit, gross margin was closer to 40%, basically flat and still near the low end of the company's reset
Wholesale revenue increased 4% to $6.6 billion, while NIKE Direct fell 7% to $4.1 billion. Nike Brand Digital was down 12%
The shift back toward wholesale continues to pressure margins and reduce sales through Nike's own channels, but it also helped return North America to growth
What's actually improving
North America grew 3% to $4.8 billion, helped by a 10% increase in wholesale as Nike rebuilt relationships with retailers it had spent years moving away from
Running remains the brightest spot. The category posted its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, adding roughly $1 billion in sales and gaining five points of market share across North America and Western Europe. So far, that's the strongest evidence that CEO Elliott Hill's "Sport Offense" reorganization, which moved 8,000 employees into sport-specific teams, is gaining traction
That said, execution hasn't been perfect. A Boston Marathon ad was pulled after receiving backlash, and some World Cup merchandise missed its retail delivery window
International markets remain a challenge
-Greater China: Revenue fell 12% to $1.3 billion, or 17% in constant currency, while operating profit declined 20%. Results came in ahead of lowered expectations, but local competitors like Anta and Li Ning continue to gain share. Management expects the ongoing "comprehensive reset" in China to weigh on results through FY27
-EMEA: Revenue slipped 1% to $3.0 billion, but was down 6% in constant currency, showing that the underlying business is weakening more than the headline number suggests
-APLA: Revenue was essentially flat at $1.6 billion, up 1% as reported and down 1% in constant currency
Is it time to move on?
Converse revenue fell 32% year over year to just $244 million
Full year sales were the brand's lowest since 2011
Neil Saunders of GlobalData argued that if Nike can't or won't turn the business around, it should consider exiting the brand before it becomes a bigger distraction for management. Based on the current trajectory, it's a reasonable argument
Soft outlook, realistic expectations
Nike expects first quarter FY27 revenue to decline by the low to mid single digits. Excluding the tariff benefit, earnings are expected to remain roughly flat through the second quarter, although gross margin should begin improving as early as Q1
Outgoing CFO Matt Friend offered little optimism about the near term
"We are not expecting the environment to improve meaningfully over the next six months"
He said consumer demand remains under pressure across most markets. Friend will be succeeded by David Denton, currently CFO at Pfizer, on August 17. He'll be stepping into the role at a challenging point in Nike's turnaround
The jump in profits was driven by a one time tariff recovery, not a meaningful improvement in the business. The stock is down more than 30% this year and is on pace for a fifth straight annual decline. Even so, growth in North America and the Running category provides the first tangible signs that the turnaround may finally be gaining traction after months of inventory cleanup. At roughly 28 times forward earnings, investors are still waiting for stronger proof. November's investor day will be the next major test
Has Wall Street Forgotten About Nike?Hello guys,
Nike has been one of the weakest large-cap stocks over the past few years, losing more than 60% from its highs and trading near levels last seen over a decade ago. While the long-term trend remains bearish, I think the stock is approaching an interesting area from a risk/reward perspective.
NKE is currently trading around major daily Fair Value Gap created back in October 2014 around the $40.40 zone. This area has already attracted buyers and could become a potential bottoming zone for a larger bounce into the end of 2026.
What caught my attention is the recent improvement in momentum. RSI is starting to curve higher, the blue momentum wave has crossed back above the zero line, and money flow is beginning to turn up from depressed levels. Meanwhile, Week-to-Date, Month-to-Date and Quarter VWAP are clustered around current price, while the Daily 50 EMA continues to act as the main resistance level.
If this ends up being the 2026 bottom, my next major target would be the daily Fair Value Gap from February 2026 around $63.71, representing roughly 46% upside from current levels.
For now, I remain cautiously bullish while price continues to hold this support zone. Long 
NYSE Nike: Is Wave (W) Nearing Completion?NYSE:NKE has experienced one of the strongest long-term bull markets in history, rising from just a few cents in the early 1980s to an all-time high of $179.10 during the post-pandemic "Easy Money Era." The weekly chart shows a complete five-wave Elliott Wave advance, suggesting that the long-term impulsive cycle may have ended at the 2021 peak. Since then, the stock has been moving through a broad corrective phase, reflecting both weakening investor sentiment and a change in the company's business environment.
The long-term advance was supported by several major economic events. Wave I developed during the company's early growth years, followed by Wave II during the technology bubble period. Wave III accelerated after the global financial crisis as Nike expanded its global presence and benefited from strong consumer spending. Despite temporary setbacks such as China's market crash in 2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, buyers quickly returned, driving the stock into Wave V . Extraordinary monetary stimulus, strong consumer demand, and record earnings helped push Nike to its all-time high near $179.10 .
Since reaching that peak, the technical picture has changed significantly. The stock has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is consistent with a long-term corrective trend rather than the continuation of the previous bull market. The current decline is labeled as an A-B-C correction , where Wave A and Wave B appear complete, while Wave C is approaching an important support area. If this interpretation is correct, the completion of Wave C would also complete a larger Wave (W) in the higher-degree correction.
One of the most important technical levels on the chart is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement , located near $42.35 . Long-term investors often watch major Fibonacci retracement levels because they frequently act as areas where selling pressure begins to weaken and buyers gradually return. Nike is now testing this support after several years of persistent decline, making this price zone particularly important from both a technical and psychological perspective.
The decline has also coincided with several business challenges. Slower consumer demand, inventory management issues, and changes to Nike's Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy have weighed on investor confidence. These fundamental concerns have reinforced the bearish price structure visible on the chart and explain why the stock has struggled to recover despite its strong long-term brand value.
Although the current trend remains bearish, the Elliott Wave structure suggests that the downside may be entering its later stages. The chart identifies the current area as " C = (W)? ", indicating that confirmation is still required before declaring the correction complete. A sustained move above nearby resistance, combined with improving price structure and stronger buying volume, would increase confidence that Wave (W) has ended and that a new corrective Wave (X) rebound has begun.
If Wave (W) is confirmed near the current support zone, the next expected move would be a counter-trend rally in Wave (X) . Based on historical resistance levels and Fibonacci relationships, potential rebound targets are located near $92 , $110 , and $126 . These levels represent possible resistance zones where a corrective recovery could slow or reverse. It is important to remember that Wave (X) would likely be a corrective rally rather than the start of a new long-term bull market.
From a risk management perspective, investors should continue monitoring price behaviour around the 23.6% Fibonacci support . A successful hold above this level, accompanied by improving momentum and higher trading volume, would strengthen the bullish recovery scenario. However, if the stock breaks decisively below this support and fails to recover, the correction could extend further before a durable bottom is established. Short 
Long
NKE | Long Setup | Pullback targeting 3.5 Risk/RewardNKE | Long Setup | Pullback Within Downtrend Targeting Fib 38.2%
After a significant decline from the $68.50 swing high, Nike is approaching a high-confluence buying zone between $44.50 and $45.50 that deserves close attention.
Context
The price is currently more than 30% below the 200D SMA, suggesting the move may be overextended at this point. Rather than calling a reversal, this setup targets a technical pullback within the downtrend, with the natural objective being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $68.50 to $41.32 swing, which lands around $51.70.
Why this zone?
Price recently broke out of the AVWAP from the last overhead supply (highlighted in yellow), but then found resistance on the AVWAP from the last swing high (purple line). It will probably try to bounce around $45.90, but the better approach is to wait for a breakout retest around $45 and look for a setup there to go long.
That retest area is where multiple POIs converge:
Gap up low
FVG (yellow highlighted area): $44.50 ~ $44.60
50% retracement from the new higher high
AVWAP from the last swing low as support
8D SMA as support
The more confluences stack in a single zone, the higher the probability of a meaningful reaction.
Trade Plan
Entry: $45.25
Stop Loss: $43.50 (below the FVG and confluence zone, with buffer against stop hunts near the 61.8% retracement)
Take Profit: $51.00 - $51.90 (just before the 38.2% fib level)
Risk/Reward: 3.3:1 to 3.8:1
Entry will be confirmed using a top-down approach: context read on the 65-minute chart and trigger execution on the 15-minute chart, reducing the risk of premature entries.
Invalidation
A daily close below $43.50 invalidates the setup, as it would break the entire confluence zone and suggest the downtrend is extending further with no structural support holding.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan. Long 
Long 
Long
$NKE - Early Signs of Positioning After a Heavy Sell Off ?
One of the names that’s been catching my attention lately is $NKE. After being one of the most beaten-down blue chips over the past few years, I’m starting to see what could be early signs of positioning. Nothing aggressive yet, but I did notice some unusual options activity going into the close recently, which usually isn’t random.
Fundamentally, the issues are real, pressure on margins, weakness in China, and a slower-than-expected turnaround. But at the same time, this is still Nike… strong balance sheet, consistent dividend growth, and a brand that’s not going anywhere long term.
What makes this more interesting is timing. With the 2026 World Cup coming up, Nike has historically benefited from these global events in a big way. Increased exposure, higher demand, and strong marketing cycles tend to translate into momentum before the event actually happens.
From a price perspective, the stock is still heavily discounted from its highs, and sentiment has been negative for a while now, which is usually when things start to get interesting. Not saying this is the bottom, but it does feel like the type of environment where accumulation could begin.
For now, I’m not rushing into anything. Just keeping it on watch, looking for more confirmation in volume and structure. If institutional flow continues to build here, this could turn into a very interesting long-term setup.
If you’re tracking institutional flow and long-term setups like this, make sure to Follow, I’ll be sharing updates as this develops, for this and other Tickers ... Nike Stock Way Off Record Ahead of Earnings. What to Know.There is a particular kind of corporate humbling that comes not from collapse but from irrelevance creeping in at the edges.
Nike NYSE:NKE is still the world's largest sportswear brand, still moving tens of billions in revenue, still on the feet of more athletes than any other company on earth.
And yet at around $50 a share, nine-year lows, off 70% from its 2021 peak, the stock is asking a question the company has to answer on Tuesday: So how’s that reset going? (insert "well we’re waiting.gif")
The earnings calendar rolls on with Nike’s earnings day next .
📉 How Did We Get Here?
Nike's November 2021 high of $178 looks almost fictional from today's vantage point. The shares are lower by more than 20% this year alone and have spent the past several months hovering near levels last seen when athleisure was still a novelty.
The company is in the middle of what it calls a business reset , refocusing on wholesale partnerships after a years-long push toward selling direct to consumers that did not deliver the margins management had anticipated.
Wholesale means selling through retailers like Foot Locker rather than exclusively through Nike's own stores and app. The retreat is sensible but the execution has been choppy, and the market has been keeping score.
🌍 Three Problems, One Earnings Call
Investors heading into Tuesday's report are watching three specific pressure points.
Europe is slowing. Consumer confidence across the continent has softened, and discretionary spending, the kind that goes on premium trainers, tends to be the first casualty when household budgets tighten.
The US wholesale business, the very channel Nike is trying to reinvigorate, remains unhealthy. Rebuilding retailer relationships after deprioritizing them takes time, and the inventory and shelf-space dynamics are still normalizing. All the while profits are slumping .
Outside the tariff woes from a year ago , China continues to disappoint. The post-pandemic recovery that Nike and many other consumer brands were counting on has been more stubborn than anticipated, with local competitors gaining ground and consumer sentiment remaining soft.
The market is expecting revenue of roughly $11.1 billion for the quarter, flat year on year, an improvement on the 9.3% decline recorded in the same period last year.
Earnings per share, meaning profit divided across all outstanding shares, is expected to land at 29 cents. Last quarter Nike beat on both revenue and earnings, so the bar exists, even if it is not set particularly high.
👟 The Cool Factor Problem
Beyond the financials, Nike has a cultural challenge that balance sheets struggle to capture. The brand that defined athletic aspiration for four decades is working harder than usual to stay relevant.
Its answer, at least partly, is a sneaker called Mind, a shoe focused on mindfulness. Whether a mindfulness sneaker moves the needle on coolness is a question the market will eventually answer, but it is the kind of product that signals a company actively searching for its next identity.
🆕 New Balance Is Having a Moment
While Nike searches, New Balance is sprinting. The 120-year-old brand, once synonymous with sensible footwear for people who prioritize comfort over style, grew sales 19% last year and 180% since 2020.
It has raised average prices by roughly 30% over the past five years, proving consumers will pay a premium for a brand they believe in. It opened 80 new stores last year, aggressively rebuilding physical retail presence at the exact moment Nike was stepping back from it.
New Balance expects to cross $10 billion in sales this year, putting it roughly $2 billion behind Nike's quarterly revenue run rate. That gap is closing, and it is closing fast.
🎯 What to Watch Tuesday
The headline numbers are important, for sure, but the language around China and wholesale recovery will tell the more important story. So grab your two shares and listen for whether management sounds like a team executing a plan or a team revising one.
At $50, Nike is cheap relative to its own history. Cheap and done falling are different things, though.
Off to you : What’s your outlook for Nike? Share your views in the comments!
SinnSeed | #Nike (#NKE) in 2026 - idea - 26.02.2026🗓 SinnSeed | #Nike (#NKE) in 2026: the tariff window the market hasn’t priced in yet
🕯 As of February 26, 2026, NKE is trading around 64 USD (63.40–65.00), with a market cap of ~94–95 bn USD.
💼 Dividend yield is roughly 2.5% (0.41 USD per share; record date: March 2). At these levels, this is not a story about an “perfect company,” but about skewed expectations and a potentially meaningful re-rating.
📈 Where Nike stands today
Nike is in the middle of a restructuring under CEO Elliott Hill. Management views FY2026 as a transition year: rapid actions to restore sales without permanent discounting, strengthen partner retail channels, refresh the product portfolio, and reduce the share of “aged” inventory. Improvements are starting to show, but the stock price reflects them only partially.
🛒 What looks strong
North America (about 45% of revenue) is recovering noticeably. Partner (wholesale) sales in Q2 grew 8%. Inventory is coming down and the markdown mix looks healthier—an important sign Nike is gradually regaining control over pricing and demand. Product momentum in running, basketball, kids, and Jordan provides additional support.
📉 What continues to weigh
The main weak spot is Greater China: a soft consumer, competition from Anta and Li-Ning, plus consumer nationalism. Nike’s direct digital sales continue to decline (NIKE Digital -14% in Q2). Gross margin in Q2 fell by 300 bps, with a meaningful portion driven by tariffs.
🗺 And importantly: Nike has already baked in about 1.5 bn USD of annual incremental tariff costs in FY2026.
🧮 Regional snapshot (Q2 FY2026, through November 30, 2025)
Total revenue: 12.43 bn USD (+1% YoY reported).
North America: 5.633 bn (+9%).
EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa): 3.392 bn (+3% reported).
Greater China: 1.423 bn (-17%).
Asia Pacific & Latin America: 1.667 bn (-4%).
North America and EMEA represent nearly three quarters of the business and remain resilient, while China and other regions continue to drag on the overall picture.
⏱ Core idea for 2026: tariffs may flip from a “headwind” into a “tailwind”
After the US Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA-based tariff framework unlawful, the administration shifted to Section 122 (15%), set to run until July 24, 2026 without Congressional approval. The market reacted emotionally to the headline, but has not fully modeled what may matter more: partial or full removal by the deadline and possible refunds of previously paid duties. Wharton estimates the industry is discussing up to 175 bn USD in potential refunds; for Nike, that could mean the already-modeled 1.5 bn USD cost headwind turns into a one-off cash inflow and a margin boost.
⚖️ The price action supports the underpricing thesis: a short-term pop on the news followed by a pullback—classic “sell the fact,” without a deep scenario repricing.
🎯 NKE price scenarios by end-2026 (from ~64 USD)
🛫 Base case: 75–78 USD (+17–22%). Restructuring stays on track; tariff pressure eases partially. Probability ~55%.
🛫 Bull case: 85–92 USD (+33–44%). Section 122 is removed/neutralized by July and duty refunds reach 50–70% of the modeled 1.5 bn USD. Probability ~35%.
🛫 Bear case: 55–60 USD (-6–14%). Shift to harsher tariff mechanisms plus further deterioration in China. Probability ~10%.
✍️ My midpoint target: 82–85 USD by December 2026 (+28–33%).
💵 Why Nike could outperform peers
Because Nike’s tariff factor is among the largest in absolute dollars, import dependence is high, and margin expectations are already depressed. If the tariff window starts to close, the impact on earnings and valuation could be disproportionately strong.
🗓 Watchlist calendar
Over the next 2–4 weeks: track news on duty refunds and importer lawsuits.
March 19: Q3 earnings (key question: does North America strength persist?).
April–July: peak catalyst window ahead of the July 24 deadline.
⚠️ Key risks
A shift to a tougher tariff framework, no guarantee of full refunds due to legal complexity, and prolonged weakness in China slowing margin recovery.
💡 Bottom line
Nike in 2026 is one of the more interesting retail setups precisely because of the tariff window. The market is still reacting cautiously—and that can be the opportunity. Building a position on pullbacks below 62 USD makes sense, and a move above 80 USD looks achievable if the tariff narrative turns more favorable into July.
NFA | DYOR
With respect to everyone,
Yours, 🫡 #SinnSeed Long 
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Is Nike Long A Good Play ? - AnalysisWhy Nike’s Stock Has Fallen So Far
Nike’s share price has declined significantly for several interrelated reasons:
1. Slowing Revenue & Profit Growth
Nike’s revenue growth has been slowing, with some periods of low single-digit (+1%) year-over-year sales growth and even expected declines in certain quarters that disappointed markets.
2. Margin Pressure
Gross margins have compressed due to higher tariffs, discounting to clear excess inventory and rising costs, a headwind that has dragged down profitability.
3. Weakness in China
Nike’s sales in Greater China have repeatedly declined, with some quarterly drops exceeding 15%, hurting growth expectations in a once-high-potential market.
4. Strategic & Operational Challenges
Nike’s pivot toward direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales and online has been uneven, early gains have stalled, forcing mix adjustments and inventory clean-ups that weighed on financials.
5. Competitive Pressure
Smaller, trendier brands (like On and Hoka) have eroded Nike’s premium market share in key categories, and fierce competition has pressured both pricing and brand perception.
6. Debt & Credit Ratings
Nike’s credit rating was downgraded somewhat due to profit and revenue headwinds, reflecting increased cost pressures and expectations of tighter cash flow, though the company remains investment-grade.
7. Market Sentiment & Volatility
Even when Nike posted better-than-expected earnings, the stock often dropped as investors focused on margins and outlook rather than current results.
Key Financial Metrics (Fundamentals Snapshot)
From the most recent fundamental data available:
-Revenue (TTM): ~ $46.5 billion
-Net Profit (TTM): ~$2.5 billion
-Gross Margin: ~ 41%
-Net Profit Margin: ~ 5.4%
-Debt/Equity: ~ 57%
(TTM = trailing 12 months)
This shows Nike still generates profit and sizable sales, but margins have narrowed compared to historical performance.
Bullish Case :
Strong Brand, Global Market Leader
Nike is one of the most recognized apparel/footwear brands globally with decades of brand equity, wide distribution, and premium pricing power in many segments.
Dividend Yield & Buybacks
Lower share price has lifted Nike’s dividend yield to around 2.5%, providing income appeal, and the company has a long history of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
Contrarian Value Appeal
At significantly lower multiples than in previous years, some analysts (e.g., at Barron’s) argue the stock is undervalued relative to sales (e.g., 2.1× sales near historic lows), and there’s potential upside if turnaround strategies gain traction.
Turnaround Initiatives Underway
New leadership is refocusing strategy, correcting promotional excesses, restoring wholesale relationships, refining product mix and improving inventory posture, which may pay off over time.
Bearish Case :
Revenue & Profit Challenges
Nike’s revenue growth has been uneven, with some quarters showing near-flat or declining top line, and margins are under pressure from discounts, tariffs and inventory cleanup.
China & Global Weakness
Persistent weakness in the Chinese market, which once was a growth engine, continues to drag on results.
Competition & Brand Challenges
Younger, trendier brands have captured some share, especially in running and lifestyle categories, pressuring Nike’s traditional dominance.
Cash Flow & Dividend Sustainability
Some analysts express concern over cash flow supporting current capital returns if earnings continue to weaken.
Debt Considerations
Though still investment-grade, Nike’s credit downgrade signals caution about leverage and profitability in the near term.
Consumer Discretionary Risk
As a consumer discretionary stock, Nike is sensitive to economic cycles, downturns in consumer spending could further pressure sales.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice. Long 
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