Commodities are typically the last asset to peak during a cycle. We typically interest rates peak first, a couple of months later that followed by equities and a couple of months after equities we see commodities peak. Commodities such as crude oil, are part of the contraction phase in the cycle, the higher the price rises it begins to acts as a tax on consumers...
In this video update, we take a look at WTI as price has retraced back to the key $60.00 level.
With price holding a 50% fib confluence at this level we could expect the market to move
lower from here. The 4hr chart is highlighting a double top pattern and if price can break below
$58.00 we should see some further short selling enter the market.
What you need to know about oil's current price action explained right here.
Also check out linked idea on oil market below, an even earlier and broader analysis.
DISCLAIMER;
Do set stop losses when trading but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders....
65% of crude oil demand is derived from gasoline, with economic conditions weakening we are now switching from supply side issues to potentially demand-side issues. Watch for lower levels of demand for Crude over the coming weeks.
An inside bar / pin bar fake out pattern has formed on the XLE weekly chart. This pattern has formed just below a key resistance level as well as the 50% retracement of the last swing high/low, which is exactly the area we want to see this form. One negative with this setup is that price has formed a very sharp v-shaped reversal off it's lows. That doesn't mean...
As you all know by now, I believe this is an event-driven outcome due to section 232 tariffs on Uranium. The decision will be made in April with a high probability it is passed. The blowback is likely higher electricity costs from Nuclear, natural gas is an alternative base load energy.
Demand remains consistent at 1.5% YoY, the decline was caused entirely by supply-side shocks and record production. From the lows, late last year OPEC has talked up production cuts which would ultimately be the catalyst to rally higher.
This is a bullish market, shorting counter-trend is risky so make sure you are managing the risk of the position BEFORE you...
In this video update, we take a look at Brent Crude Oil after identifying the bullish trend on the daily chart,
as the monthly retraces back to the key lows. If we expect the market to test these lows we should be
looking for continued long opportunities.
In this video update, we take a look at the Oil markets and how they are shaping up for another push higher.
Brent crude offers a cleaner chart when comparing price action however they both show signs that
the market remains bullish despite the recent consolidation. Wait for a bullish daily close before
looking for continuation trades higher.
Our wave 2 low from support looks to be holding strong. I believe the wave 3 has started and section 232 tariffs on Uranium as likely to be the driver moving forward.
The target for Wave 3 is above $7, section 232 announcement is in April.
Markets are a DISCOUNTING MECHANISM they will discount today what they expect at some point in the future and if that expectation does not materialize the price will correct lower. Over the past few months, OPEC has been quite open about production cuts which would be the perfect recipe to push markets higher.
Huge overproduction while demand remained consistent...
I don't like to post about single equities due to the balance sheet risk they propose, this is a company I have bought to take advantage of the outcome of section 232 as mentioned in the earlier update on Natural Gas.
manage your risk effectively and don't be a blind sheep, this is not advise!
