Trading Looks Complicated but Sometimes It Is One Line.
A blue line on the chart. That’s all.
Since May, every rally in WTI crude oil stopped there. Four months, one line, the same story each time. Until price closed above it.
A trendline is a queue of sellers. Each time price touched the line, someone in the queue sold. This week the queue ran out.
Let me confess something. For years I made trading complicated. More indicators, more news, more opinions, a screen that looked like a cockpit. And I was losing money.
Trading looks complicated because we make it complicated. The chart itself is often simpler.
Ok but… one line cannot tell you what oil will do next. Agreed. Nobody knows what oil will do next, and I will not pretend. What a line can tell you is which way the odds lean. And only if someone counted it.
So I counted. On US stocks, after a clean break of a falling trendline (a line price never crossed before), the next 20 sessions returned 2.6% on average, 2.0% median, and 60% of cases ended positive (n = 3,039, daily charts, numbers rounded). Buying the S&P 500 on any random day and holding the same 20 sessions gives 0.9%. About three times, same 20 days, same rules.
This is called an edge.
One honest note. Those numbers come from stocks, not from oil. I have not counted oil yet. But a queue is a queue, and this is the cleanest one I have seen in months.
That is why I built the indicator you see on this chart. It finds these lines by itself and marks the break. No drawing, no opinion.
The panel also shows the stop it used, 5% below the entry, decided before the entry.
Complicated is not the same as careful. 
Long
25.08.26 Daily ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:EURUSD : I am still holding the daily swing position on this pair, and just like yesterday I am looking for intra-day development to see if I can scale into the sells. If price breaks impulsively through the low to the left and we get a further continuation below, I will look to get into a second sell position on this pair, also monitoring the DXY closely in this scenario to see how that is delivering to the upside.
FX:GBPUSD : This pair is positioned very well for the shorts, however the lower timeframes are not as clear as EU. I am using this pair as almost a hedge play, in that if the DXY does break back to the downside, GU may push from the base it is currently failing to break and provide an insurance entry. If not and this base is impulsively broken, just like EU I will look for lower timeframes stacks of price to get short and manage into the inflection point on the left.
FX:NZDJPY : The higher timeframe on this pair is looking really great for more bullish moves into the next main high, and potentially break higher to fully take out this area. If price builds more of a middle section and a second top, comes back down to complete the last leg and provides a 1H risk entry, I will get long into the highs. If price moves down sooner than that, a simple insurance entry once the 1H follows through is enough to play the long and manage into the high for further development.
24.08.26 Daily ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:NZDJPY : We can see on the higher timeframe price moving to the highs and it has now broken above the inflection point to the left. Similar to AU this does need a little development time, but if we get a deliberate structure on the 1H this would be a great play long. Price could get to the base a little earlier, if it does I will look for an insurance entry, but if we see the depth and price takes a little more time, I will play the risk entry.
FX:AUDUSD : Right now I am looking more at getting long on this pair, almost playing this as the hedge if EU sells fail. We need more development on the 1H first, however if price holds the base and forms more depth, we can filter to the 15M if we have ending structure and look to get long into the highs. If this fails and price drops out impulsively, we can look for a flip and get short in line with EU selling and the DXY breaking out to the upside.
FX:EURUSD : I currently have a daily swing position set on this pair after the tweezer tops closed on Friday, this is a very reliable candle formation and I am playing the idea that the DXY continues long after it formed tweezer bottoms itself. Intraday I am looking for a break below the ray line followed by a 15M continuation where I can get short and manage for the 3:1, whilst the daily position runs alongside this for a longer term hold. If the shorts fail, we may build a bullish structure on the 1H and see the DXY continue selling.
19.08.26 Daily ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:EURUSD : Very straight forward on this pair as we can see the deliberate 123 structure that has formed into a small 15M hook point. The DXY is positioned at a low where it could hold and go long, meaning EU short. The last leg does have a 123 finishing move into the high, so we have to be aware this could break out higher on the 15M and break back in, giving us a nice 1H risk entry short. If not and price breaks out, potentially a flip on the cards for a long to fill the gap.
OANDA:XAGUSD : On the higher timeframe we can see the main low has been taken out and price is now moving in a larger 123 move to the upside, with a gap to fill at the next inflection point as well, price has more of a reason to go long than short. We have a larger 123 move into a hook point and also retesting previous highs, due to the momentum in the last leg, I will be looking for an insurance entry once the 1H breaks back in.
OANDA:AU200AUD : The higher timeframe is doing its job, after taking out the highs and selling back off into this range, we now have a larger structure forming around the midway point of this range. It is visible on the 4H which means we could get a 4H risk entry here, but also the opportunity to entertain a 1H risk entry for refinement and protect stops above the structure. Target is the next low at the bottom of the overall range.
