Mr. Wyckoff Is That You? (Pt II) & Pi Cycle Top Trendline on BTCHey Trading Fam,
As the Donald keeps the market gambling and scrambling, I want to step away from the headlines a bit and take a closer look at what our charts might be suggesting. Admittedly, the bias indicated may be somewhat contrarian at the moment. If you're not into that, this video is probably not for you.
It feels like an echo chamber out there with most analysts. Everyone keeps yelling, "Buy the dip! Buy the dip!" But what about a more cautious approach? Maybe it was time to sell the top and preserve your cash? I don't know. Just throwing it out there.
As many of you are aware, we've reached my third and final target on the SPY. I've been talking about 670-700 on the SPY for a couple of years now. It's been hit, and personally (though I am cautiously still trading publicly), I've exited. My goal is to preserve my cash. Maybe I do this through precious metals? Haven't decided yet. But I am happy with the profit I've made to this point and will probably not test fate too much further.
As for crypto, old Bitcoin usually follows our stock market. And we have tracked the SPY for that part. If the market does, in fact, pull back further, I would expect Bitcoin and all of crypto to follow.
I know, I know. But what about that altcoin season? I don't know guys. That may not actually start until next year. I'm not saying this will be the case for sure. But more and more, it sure is looking that way.
Enjoy the vid,
✌️Stew
Pullback
Will Ethereum lead next Altseason? ETF & Fusaka update in focus!Ethereum ETFs have recently seen significant inflows, outpacing Bitcoin ETFs, just ahead of the upcoming Fusaka upgrade in November.
Ethereum recently broke above its previous record high, a move that was anticipated in earlier analysis, and is pulling back before shooting higher. For a sustained move higher, a strong breakout with increased volume and momentum is needed. There are signs of momentum exhaustion, so traders should watch for confirmation before expecting further upside.
A classic cup and handle formation opens the door to $6,200 if resistance is cleared, with key support at $4,115 (previous resistance now acting as support) and a deeper pullback exposing $3,500. But this would not necessarily change the long-term bullish outlook.
Indicators to Watch
Bitcoin Dominance:
Bitcoin’s market dominance is currently around 55%, suggesting the market is still Bitcoin-led, and a true “altseason” may be at its early stage.
Total Crypto Market Cap:
Watch for breakouts in the total crypto market cap (TOTAL3 - excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) and the formation of bullish patterns for confirmation of a broader market uptrend.
Altcoin Season Index:
The index remains below the threshold for a full altseason but is rising, indicating that Ethereum and other altcoins are not broadly outperforming Bitcoin but are nearing breakout.
Short/Medium-Term Outlook:
Expect continued consolidation or a possible pullback before any sustained move higher if support above $4,115 holds firm.
Long-Term Outlook:
As long as Ethereum holds above the 50% retracement level, the long-term trend remains positive. A confirmed breakout above resistance could signal the next major upward phase.
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Gold – Eyeing the H4 FVG Before the Next Bull RunPrice has been consolidating within the current Asian range after running last week’s high and today’s daily high. The move into D-H lacked strong momentum, and with a large unfilled H4 Fair Value Gap (3,350–3,372) below, I’m anticipating a retracement to rebalance liquidity before resuming the bullish trend.
Key Notes:
D-H (~3,436) acting as short-term resistance.
Watching for a sweep of D-H to create excess on the DOM, then a potential breakdown toward the H4 FVG.
Bearish path targets: 3,397 → 3,372 → 3,350.
Bullish continuation requires a clean breakout and hold above D-H with volume.
This scenario could set up a stronger bullish leg later in the week, especially if the retracement aligns with London or NY session volatility.
The Gold Retrace for Ultimate Entry!looking for price to continue with its pullback to find where exactly support is. Once we see price establish support we should get some type of signal for entry and price can continue with this bullish price action to make new highs. If we get a full 71.8% pullback that should make for a nice bull run. Just need to wait for the confirmations first before reacting cause we might get a lot of chop until then.
ADBE 9-EMA Dip BuyIn this video I go over the Adobe Stock coming back to the 9 Emma moving average. I'm looking for the price to come back a little bit and close just below or on the 9 EMA and then as soon as Thursday or Friday happens, I want to see the price go back above the 9 EMA and then buy to enter the position long. Adobe is considering a mega cap, and the mega caps are getting all the attention right now so make sure that if you play any large caps or mid-caps that you have a lot of conviction. Please realize that the money has not been flowing into large or mid cap stocks for quite some time so that's why I am focusing on the Mega CAPS.
It's Time To Reassess Our Previous Bitcoin SynopsisTraders,
This recent drop in Bitcoin price has caught many traders (including myself) off-guard. Unfortunately, we cannot always get it right and when we do get it wrong, it is important that we drop any preconceived ideas we hold and honestly re-evaluate potential price action. So, that's what we are doing in today's video. We are only going to look at Bitcoin, what it's doing now, what it has to do to remain bullish, and what might happen should we remain bearish.
Dollar, Stocks, Bitcoin ...And Have Altcoins Bottomed?Traders,
It looks as if the dollar, vix, and precious metals/commodities will continue to trend up, stocks will continue to pull back. Bitcoin is tenuous. But it is possible that altcoins have reached their low, though that low may be retested soon. We'll discuss these subjects in this weekly update.
Stew
Dollar, VIX, Gold & Silver are Spiking! What Could This IndicateTraders,
In this video I'll cover the spikes we are witnessing in the dollar, fear, and precious metals (specifically gold). We'll discuss what this might indicate to us from a geo-political/macro-economic perspective. Inflation continues to tick up. The SEC continues to attack big players (tokens/coins) in the crypto space without providing rules for how to play fairly. We'll track the current progress on stocks pulling back. Bitcoin dominance had done something it has never done before. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to track sideways while altcoins continue their deeper pullback. Plus, I'll analyze Ethereum Classic and at the end of the video I have some news from my followers.
P.S. - Minutes after producing the video, I read that Iran plans to attack Israel. The charts were telling us something. Is this it?
Markets Have Turned Bearish. How Far Do We Pull Back?Traders,
In this market update I am discussing the numerous "M" Patterns that I am seeing on the crypto charts. We'll talk about where we possibly could pull back to. And we'll take a look at the U.S. stock market: DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVIDIA and the impact they are having on crypto right now.
Apologies for the quiet voice. I will ensure this is fixed before the next video.
Nvidia - $1000 And Then DropHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2018 Nvidia stock has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation. We had the last retest in August of 2018 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. Considering that Nvidia is now approaching the upper resistance of the channel, I do expect a (short term) pullback to retest previous support and then more continuation from there.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
AMD - More liquidity to be built? Rare short term short opp.I am bullish on this stock longer term as most everyone is but it's rare to have a clear short opportunity to capture the pullback - and with the 5day and 20day averages sitting so close this could be our shot.
As always, keep you posted with more analysis as price develops!
Happy Trading :)
Here's my line. When pullback bottom is confirmed, re-enter.Traders,
It's been a few weeks since I have done a video update. Hopefully, you all have been following my non-video posts too. I have been making regular posts in attempts to keep you all up to speed on the latest market price action.
In this video, I will show you the line that caused me to sell. This does not mean I have now gone bearish on the market. On the contrary, I am still overall bullish longer term. However, the market is definitely experiencing a bit of a pullback here due to some new inflation data causing more uncertainty. Once this pullback has confirmed a bottom, I will once again look to re-enter my longs. I will show you some of the levels I am targeting on Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple near the end of the video.
Best,
Stew
CADJPY I Approaching pivot support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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USDJPY I Slight pullback and continuation of trend +200 pipsWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Gold to retest its lows, reversal potentiallyGold has taken over 7 days to decline back to its lower low. I don't believe that price is prepared to push lower. I will await a re-test of the lows to indicate whether I will go long on gold at the bottom of its consolidation range. As long as price continues to decline with these indecision candles I'm under the impression that it will suddenly become bullish after a reversal candlestick retest at the low of 4H bullish engulfing confirmed.
EURAUD I Wait for rejection at supportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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CHFJPY I Potential return to the previous structureWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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AUDCAD I Watch for this 🎯Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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$QQQ — 9 Weeks since 21-EMA Tap!It has been 9 weeks since QQQ tapped the 21-ema on the weekly chart. The last time that happened? December 2021. Tech is mega-stretched to the upside, and mean-reversion is on the menu.
$330 puts expiring in two weeks
$310/$290 put debit spread expiring in September.
$345 stop loss. Hedge with short-term calls as needed.






















