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XAUAUD has more upside potentialGold prices extended gains amid escalating tariff tensions between the US and China, after China sanctioned shipping and the US President affirmed the commitment to maintaining high tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown may introduce additional uncertainty regarding the timeliness of monetary policy in addressing the recently weakening labor market. The postponement of the Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report raises further concern, as the Fed requires more data to determine its primary focus between the labor market and inflation—its dual mandate—which are currently diverging. Elevated inflation, driven by recent trade policies, requires the Fed to evaluate whether the price increases are transitory or if they will become prolonged and spread to sectors beyond tariff-sensitive goods. Markets are currently pricing in two additional rate cuts this year but remain uncertain about the outlook for next year, with some Fed officials signaling a cautious stance. Should the labor market continue to deteriorate while inflation remains elevated, the US economy could face stagnation, creating a favorable environment for gold. In Australia, recent labor data has increased economic uncertainty. The unemployment rate for Sep rose to a four-year high of 4.5% from 4.3% in the previous month, driven by a decrease in job openings and an increase in job seekers concerned about future income prospects. The weakening labor market has lifted market expectations for an RBA rate cut in Nov to over 70% from a previous reading of 40%, weighing on the Australian dollar. From a technical perspective, XAUAUD is trading within an upward range with expanding EMAs (21,78), indicating strong bullish momentum, though it may face pressure from profit-taking. A breakout above the Fibonacci Extension 361.8% at 6588 could see the price target the Fibonacci Extension 423.6% at 6866. Conversely, a failure to breach the 6588 level could result in a decline to test the support at 6140. By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
OANDA:XAUAUD
by WiseLeoTrading
RBA September 2025: Hawkish Tilt vs August - Shorted EURAUDNow that we have the 30 Sept 2025 RBA statement, here’s a side-by-side comparison with the prior (August) statement, highlighting the specific new remarks, data changes, and tone shifts that matter for markets in the short term. Key Differences: September vs August Inflation August: Inflation had eased into the 2–3% band, with underlying momentum lower, helped by rebates and easing pressures. September: “The decline in underlying inflation has slowed… recent data suggest Q3 inflation may be higher than expected.” 🔹 New: Clearer warning that disinflation is stalling, with upside surprise risk. This is a hawkish tilt, raising doubt about how quickly the RBA will cut again. Domestic demand & growth August: Growth outlook was subdued, public demand dominant, consumption weak, risks tilted to downside. September: “Private demand is recovering… private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise… housing market is strengthening.” 🔹 New: Stronger domestic recovery narrative. This is a shift away from a purely dovish, weak-growth picture, suggesting easing might not need to be as aggressive. Labor market August: Labor conditions softening somewhat, unemployment ~4.3%, some easing in demand. September: “Labor market conditions broadly steady… unemployment unchanged at 4.2%, underutilization low… wages growth has eased, but productivity weak and unit labor costs high.” 🔹 New: Balanced message — employment growth slowed, but overall labor market remains tight. The mention of unit labor costs high is a hawkish insertion, as it points to sticky wage-price dynamics. Global risks August: Emphasized uncertainty, trade headwinds, geopolitical risks, downside to global demand. September: “More clarity on US tariffs — extreme outcomes avoided, but still adverse effect expected… geopolitical risks remain.” 🔹 New: Slightly more optimistic (less extreme trade risks), but still cautious. Market read: less urgent downside risk, neutral for AUD. Policy stance / guidance August: Dovish, emphasized “data dependency,” readiness to act, conditional forward guidance. September: “Signs that demand is recovering, inflation may be persistent in some areas, labor market stable… appropriate to remain cautious… policy well placed to respond if needed.” 🔹 New: Stronger caution against rushing into more cuts. Less dovish than before, reinforcing a wait-and-see bias. Tone shift: Compared to August, the September statement is less dovish. It highlights stronger domestic demand, slower disinflation, and sticky unit labor costs. Implication: This reduces near-term probability of another immediate cut. Markets may pare back November cut expectations slightly. AUD reaction: Near term (this week and next), AUD likely supported on dips, especially if global risk sentiment doesn’t collapse. AUD currency crosses may see AUD outperformance, while AUDUSD may remain also supported but also more dependent on USD drivers. Unless we see a major surprise from U.S. Jobs data I will remain short with minimum target at 1.7593 If you have any questions don't hesitate to drop them in the comments below.
Short
by Trading_Stream
RBA's Bullock says inflation under control, Aussie steadyRBA Governor Bullock testified before a parliamentary committee on Monday. Bullock said that inflation was in a "very good position" as higher interest rates had curbed demand. Still, she warned that there inflation risks remained on "both sides". Bullock was less positive about the geopolitical environment, warning that the significant change in the global trading system which had created massive uncertainty. The Reserve Bank was particularly concerned about the impact of US tariffs on China, Australia's largest trading partner. Bullock warned that the financial markets had not priced in the risks of the tariffs, which could affect financial stability if the the domstic economy was significantly affected by the tariffs. The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 3.6% at next week's meeting, after lowering rates by a quarter-point in August. The markets have priced in a 10% likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with an 86% likelihood of a cut in November. There are no US economic releases today but investors will be keeping a close eye on Fedspeak, with five FOMC members scheduled to deliver public remarks. New Fed Governor Miran, who voted for a 50-bp cut at the September 17 meeting, is expected to give a detailed explanation of his view in today's speech. At last week's meeting, the Fed signaled that more rate cuts were coming and the markets have priced in an October cut at 90%, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed appears to have shifted to a more dovish stance after maintaining rates since December 2024 until lowering rates last week. AUDUSD tested support at 0.6589 and 0.6580 earlier. Next, there is support at 0.6567 There is resistance at 0.6602 and 0.6611
by OANDA
1
Will AUDUSD Continue To Gain On The Theme of a Fed Cut?Fundamental approach: - AUDUSD edged higher this week amid a softer US dollar. Aug US CPI came in slightly hot but reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut. RBA policy remained steady following Aug’s cut and a data‑dependent stance. - US dollar moves were driven by Aug inflation at 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY, and a labor market picture softened by benchmark revisions, keeping markets positioned for a Sep Fed easing, which weighed on the greenback. - Australian policy settings stayed unchanged after the Aug RBA cut to 3.60%, and officials reiterated data dependence, limiting AUD-specific surprises. Risk sentiment improved after the CPI release, adding modest support to pro‑cyclical currencies. - AUDUSD could gain if the Fed delivers a dovish cut and US data cools further. Next week’s Fed decision and any RBA communications on the release schedule are the key catalysts to watch. Technical approach: - AUDUSD broke the ley level at around 0.6600 and rose higher. The price is well above both diverging EMAs, indicating a bullish structure. - If AUDUSD continues to rise, it may retest the resistance at around 0.6700. - On the contrary, struggling to close above 0.6700 may prompt a correction to restest the support at 0.6600. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Technical Analysis Report for the AUS200 (ASX 200)# AUS200 Technical Analysis: Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Executive Summary Current Price: 8943.0 (August 30, 2025, 12:54 PM UTC+4) Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish with September Seasonality Concerns Primary Trend: Uptrend with potential consolidation phase The AUS200 (ASX 200) continues to demonstrate resilience near record highs, with the index climbing 2.48% over the past month and up 10.89% year-over-year. However, technical analysis suggests we're entering the "September Swoon" period, historically the worst performing month for equities. Market Context & Fundamentals Economic Backdrop The Australian market operates within a supportive monetary environment with the RBA recently cutting the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%. After years of steep hikes, the central bank began lowering rates in 2025, with three cuts implemented so far. This accommodative policy stance provides underlying support for equity valuations. Key Fundamental Drivers Monetary Policy: Inflation within the 2-3% target range with unemployment remaining low despite slight increases Economic Outlook: Moderate growth expectations with global uncertainty remaining elevated Sectoral Rotation: Energy and resources maintaining relative strength Technical Analysis Framework Japanese Candlestick Analysis Weekly Pattern: Doji formation suggesting indecision at current levels Daily Pattern: Small-bodied candles with extended upper shadows indicate selling pressure at highs Intraday Patterns: Hammer and shooting star formations prevalent in 1H and 4H timeframes Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Count: Wave 5 of larger degree impulse potentially nearing completion Alternative Count: Extended Wave 3 with further upside potential to 9200-9300 Critical Levels: Wave 4 low at 8750 provides key support structure Harmonic Patterns Active Pattern: Potential AB=CD pattern completion near 8950-9000 zone Fibonacci Confluence: 61.8% retracement of major swing aligns with current resistance PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone): 8920-8980 represents high-probability turning point Wyckoff Analysis Phase Assessment: Late accumulation/early markup phase Volume Analysis: Decreasing volume on recent advances suggests distribution characteristics Composite Operator: Large player activity evident in 8900-9000 range W.D. Gann Analysis # Time Theory Application Critical Time Windows: - September 3-6: High volatility period based on seasonal Gann squares - September 23: Autumn equinox - significant time cycle - October 7-14: 90-degree time cycle from previous major low # Square of 9 Analysis Current Position: 8943 sits at 299.05° on the wheel Next Resistance: 9025 (300°) and 9216 (304°) Support Levels: 8836 (297°) and 8649 (294°) # Price and Time Squaring Square of Current Price: √8943 = 94.57 Next square: 95² = 9025 (key resistance) Previous square: 94² = 8836 (support level) Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Tenkan-sen (9): 8932 (neutral to slightly bullish) Kijun-sen (26): 8895 (bullish above this level) Senkou Span A: 8913 (current cloud top) Senkou Span B: 8847 (cloud bottom support) Assessment: Price above cloud with bullish bias, but approaching cloud resistance Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicators 5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) RSI(14): 58.2 - Neutral with slight bullish bias VWAP: 8938 - Price trading above, confirming intraday strength Bollinger Bands: Upper band at 8965, suggesting potential resistance Moving Averages: EMA(20) > EMA(50) maintaining bullish structure 15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) MACD: Bullish crossover pending, histogram improving Stochastic: 62.8 in neutral zone with upward momentum Volume Profile: High volume node at 8920-8930 zone 1-Hour Chart (Day Trading) RSI(14): 61.5 approaching overbought threshold VWAP: 8925 providing dynamic support ADX: 28.4 indicating moderate trend strength Support: 8910, 8885, 8850 Resistance: 8955, 8975, 9000 4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading) RSI(14): 65.8 in overbought territory MACD: Positive but showing divergence Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band, expansion phase Key Levels: Support at 8870, Resistance at 8980-9000 Daily Chart (Position Trading) RSI(14): 68.2 overbought but not extreme Moving Averages: All major MAs aligned bullishly Volume: Below-average, concerning for sustainability Pattern: Rising wedge formation suggesting potential correction Weekly Chart (Long-term View) RSI(14): 72.1 significantly overbought MACD: Positive but momentum slowing Trend: Strong uptrend since October 2024 low Resistance: 9000-9100 zone represents major overhead supply Support and Resistance Analysis Primary Support Levels 1. 8910-8920: Immediate support zone with volume confluence 2. 8870-8885: Previous resistance turned support, multiple touches 3. 8840-8850: 20-day EMA and psychological level 4. 8800-8815: 50-day EMA and structural support 5. 8750-8765: Key weekly support and Elliott Wave 4 low Primary Resistance Levels 1. 8955-8965: Immediate resistance with Gann and Fibonacci confluence 2. 8980-9000: Major psychological level and distribution zone 3. 9025-9040: Square of 9 resistance and measured move target 4. 9080-9100: Long-term resistance zone and potential wave completion 5. 9200-9250: Extended target based on harmonic pattern completion Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025) Monday, September 2, 2025 Market Outlook: Post-weekend gap potential, focus on 8920-8950 range Strategy: Range trading with breakout preparation Intraday Levels: Long Entry: 8920-8925 with stop at 8905 Target 1: 8945 Target 2: 8960 Short Entry: 8965-8970 with stop at 8980 Target 1: 8940 Target 2: 8920 Swing Setup: Monitor for breakout above 8970 for continuation to 9000 Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Gann time cycle activation, increased volatility expected Strategy: Trend following with tight risk management Intraday Levels: Long Entry: 8930-8935 (if holding above 8920) Target 1: 8955 Target 2: 8975 Short Entry: 8975-8985 with stop at 9000 Target 1: 8950 Target 2: 8925 Key Events: Watch for reversal patterns near 8980-9000 zone Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: Mid-week consolidation expected, range-bound trading Strategy: Scalping opportunities within established range Intraday Levels: Range Bottom: 8920-8930 Range Top: 8970-8980 Breakout Levels: Above 8985 (bullish) / Below 8915 (bearish) Scalp Long: 8925-8930, Target: 8950-8955 Scalp Short: 8970-8975, Target: 8940-8945 Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Potential breakout day, monitor volume for confirmation Strategy: Breakout trading with momentum confirmation Breakout Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: Above 8985 targets 9015-9025 Bearish Breakdown: Below 8915 targets 8885-8870 Volume Requirement: 1.5x average for valid breakout Intraday Management: Stop Loss: 15-20 points for scalps, 30-35 points for swings Position Sizing: Reduce size by 25% given increased volatility Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly close positioning, potential profit-taking Strategy: End-of-week profit-taking and position adjustments Weekly Close Targets: Bullish Scenario: Close above 8960 sets up next week rally Neutral Scenario: Close 8920-8960 maintains range Bearish Scenario: Close below 8920 suggests correction beginning Day Trading Focus: Morning: Trend continuation from Thursday Afternoon: Range trading and profit-taking Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Scalping (5M-15M): 0.5-1% risk per trade Day Trading (1H-4H): 1-1.5% risk per trade Swing Trading (Daily): 2-2.5% risk per trade Stop Loss Guidelines 5M Charts: 8-12 points maximum 15M Charts: 12-18 points maximum 1H Charts: 20-30 points maximum 4H Charts: 35-50 points maximum Daily Charts: 60-100 points maximum Profit Taking Strategy Target 1: 1:1 Risk/Reward (50% position close) Target 2: 1:2 Risk/Reward (30% position close) Target 3: 1:3 Risk/Reward (20% position close) Trailing Stop: Implement after Target 1 achievement Geopolitical and Market Risk Factors Domestic Considerations RBA Policy: Economic outlook remains "uncertain" with potential for policy reversals if downside risks materialize Employment Data: Rising unemployment to 4.3% may influence future policy decisions Seasonal Patterns: September historically weak for Australian equities International Factors US Market Correlation: Strong correlation with S&P 500 performance China Economic Data: Resource sector sensitivity to Chinese growth metrics Currency Impact: AUD strength/weakness affecting export competitiveness Commodity Prices: Iron ore and gold price movements critical for index performance Event Risk Calendar September 3: RBA Meeting Minutes release September 5: US Non-Farm Payrolls (strong correlation impact) September 17: RBA Policy Decision (potential further rate cut) September 24: Chinese PMI data release Sector Rotation Analysis Outperforming Sectors 1. Energy: Benefiting from geopolitical tensions and supply constraints 2. Financials: Rate cut cycle creating yield curve steepening opportunities 3. Resources: China stimulus hopes and infrastructure demand Underperforming Sectors 1. Technology: Higher rates historically impacting growth valuations 2. REITs: Competition from rising dividend yields in other sectors 3. Consumer Discretionary: Economic uncertainty dampening spending Trading Psychology and Market Sentiment Sentiment Indicators Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (slightly bearish) VIX Equivalent: Elevated but not extreme levels Insider Trading: Moderate selling activity at current levels Psychological Levels 9000: Major psychological resistance 8800: Key psychological support 8500: Crisis level support (low probability scenario) Advanced Trading Setups Harmonic Trading Opportunities 1. Bullish Bat Pattern: Completion at 8880-8900 zone 2. Bearish Gartley: Potential formation at 9020-9050 levels 3. AB=CD Pattern: Active completion zone 8950-8980 Gann-Based Setups 1. Square of 9 Trades: Long at 297° (8836), Short at 300° (9025) 2. Time Cycle Trades: Reversal zones at September 3-6 window 3. Angle Confirmation: 1x1 angle from August low providing dynamic support Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution Current Phase: Late accumulation (Phase E potential) Volume Characteristics: Decreasing volume on advances (concerning) Composite Operator: Evidence of large player distribution above 8950 Technology Integration Algorithmic Considerations High-Frequency Impact: Increased volatility during 9:30-10:30 and 14:30-15:30 windows Order Flow Analysis: Large block transactions evident at 8920 and 8970 levels Market Microstructure: Bid-ask spreads widening above 8960 Recommended Tools 1. TradingView: Chart analysis and alert systems 2. Market Profile: Volume distribution analysis 3. Order Flow Software: Real-time institutional activity tracking Conclusion and Weekly Outlook The AUS200 stands at a critical juncture, trading near historical highs while facing seasonal headwinds and technical exhaustion signals. The combination of supportive monetary policy and strong year-to-date performance provides underlying bullish bias, but elevated RSI readings across multiple timeframes warrant cautious optimism. Key Themes for September: 1. Range Trading: 8920-8980 likely to contain price action initially 2. Breakout Preparation: Monitor volume for sustained moves beyond range 3. Seasonal Weakness: Historical September underperformance requires defensive positioning 4. Policy Support: RBA accommodation providing floor for significant declines Recommended Approach: - Favor range trading over directional bias initially - Reduce position sizes given elevated volatility expectations - Focus on high-probability setups with multiple confluence factors - Maintain disciplined risk management throughout September The technical analysis suggests a market in transition, where traditional support and resistance levels will be tested against changing fundamental backdrops. Traders should remain flexible and prepared for both continuation and reversal scenarios as the market navigates this critical period. --- *This analysis incorporates multiple technical methodologies and should be used in conjunction with proper risk management. Market conditions can change rapidly, and all trading decisions should be based on current market information and individual risk tolerance.*
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200
by sunya
Australian CPI expected to jump, Aussie steadyThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/IUSD is trading at 0.6468, down 0.40% on the day. Australia's CPI for July surprised on the upside, jumping to 2.8% y/y. This followed a 1.9% gain in June and was above the market estimate of 2.3%. The spike in inflation, the highest level since July 2024, was driven by a sharp increase in electricity prices due to the end of government electricity rebates for many households. The trimmed mean, a key gauge of core CPI, rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June. The surprise jump in inflation has dampened expectations for a September rate cut. The money markets have reduced the probability of a rate cut to 22%, down from 30% before the inflation release. Despite the hot inflation report, the Reserve Bank is expected to continue its easing cycle, with a 61% probability of a cut in November. The central bank remains very concerned about inflation but is also focused on employment, with the labor market showing signs of weakening. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting said that upcoming rate decisions would depend on the data. The RBA meets next on September 19 and there are three key releases in September prior to the meeting - inflation, GDP and employment. The RBA has surprised the markets before and if these upcoming releases show a drop in economic activity or inflation, the RBA could respond with a rate cut next month. The nasty feud between the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump has taken another twist, as the President said he had removed Fed Governor Lisa Cook due over charges that she made false statements on mortgage applications. The Fed says that Trump does not have authority to fire Cook. This latest spat further undermines the credibility of the US and could hurt the US dollar.
by OANDA
RBA lowers rates, Aussie dips lower, US CPI expected to riseThe Australian dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6494, down 0.29% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the cash rate by a quarter-point on Tuesday in a unanimous decision, bringing the cash rate to 3.60%. This is the lowest level since April 2023 and today's cut was the third this year. This time around the RBA didn't shock the markets, unlike the July meeting when the RBA held rates and said it needed to see additional inflation data before lowering rates. The rate statement began by noting that inflation has "fallen substantially" since 2022 and that inflation had fallen back within the target band of 2%-3% in the second quarter. The Board noted that headline inflation was at 2.1% and trimmed mean (a key core CPI gauge) was at 2.7%. The Board said that underlying inflation is expected to continue to ease to the midpoint of the target band and the cash rate should continue to follow a "gradual easing path". This dovish tune in the statement was balanced out by concerns that uncertainty remains in both the global economy and at home. The Board said it would remain cautious and would remain focused on price stabililty and employment. At a post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock said that the growth and inflation forecasts support further rate cuts but "there is still a lot of uncertainty" and future rate decisions would be data-dependent. US inflation expected to rise to 2.8% The US releases the July inflation report later today. Inflation is expected to nudge higher to 2.8% y/y, up from 2.7% y/y in June. This would mark a third straight acceleration and the highest inflation level since February. Core CPI is also expected to accelerate to 3.0%, up from 2.9% Monthly, CPI is projected to ease to 0.2% from 0.3%. Core CPI is projected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%. Today's inflation data could shift market expectations for the September Fed meeting but the decision will very likely be rate cut, with a current likelihood of 84%, according to FedWatch's CME.
by OANDA
RBA poised to lower rates, Australian dollar in holding patternThe Australian dollar is coming off a strong week, gaining almost 1% against the US dollar. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is almost unchanged at 0.6521. The Reserve Bank of Australia is virtually certain to lower rates at Tuesday's meeting. This would be the third cut of 2025 and would lower the cash rate to 3.60%, its lowest level since April 2023. This indicates a gradual, cautious approach to lowering rates. The RBA had a trick up its sleeve in July, when it opted to hold rates. The markets had widely expected a rate cut but the RBA said that it wanted to see additional inflation data before delivering a rate cut. Inflation has been cooling, as CPI for the second quarter nudged down to 2.1% y/y, down from 2.4% in Q1. This strongly supports the case for a rate cut as CPI has fallen close to the lower band of the RBA's 2%-3% target. Core inflation has also been easing lower. As well, the labor market is showing signs of cooling and the central bank wants to avoid a sharp deterioration in employment data. With today's move practically a given, investors will be looking for hints about further cuts. Governor Bullock has sounded cautious, noting that inflation remains sticky and there is continuing uncertainty over US tariffs. Australian goods face a low 10% US tariff, which is not expected to have a significant impact on the economy. However, US tariffs on China, which is Australia's largest trading partner, could weigh on economic growth. In the US, it's a very light calendar with no tier-1 events. On Tuesday, the US releases CPI for July, which is expected to tick up to 2.8% from 2.7% in June. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6414. Below, there is support at 0.6506 There is resistance at 0.6529 and 0.6536
by OANDA
AUDUSD: Rate Cut Tuesday + Price At A Daily -FVG! Time To Sell?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 11 - 15 In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: AUDUSD AUDUSD has been difficult to trade, as it chops its slow grind upwards. Then last, although the week's trading range was small, the Weekly candle closed as a bearish Inside Bar. This, as price made contact with a -FVG! The scenario could be laying the ground work for a new bearish leg to form. Couple the above with an interest rate cut coming Tuesday for the AUD, and August being a historically bad month for the aussie, things could get real interesting for sellers next week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short
by RT_Money
1
Australia inflation gauge hits 20-month high, Aussie gains grounThe Australian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6483 up 0.22% on the day. The US dollar made inroads last week against all the major currencies except the yen and gained 1.5% against the Australian dollar. Australia's Melbourne Institute inflation guage soared 0.9% m/m in July, up sharply from 0.1% in June and marking the highest rise since Dec. 2023. The MI gauge, which provides a monthly guide to consumer inflation (official CPI is published quarterly), will no doubt raise concerns at the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has been cautious about cutting rates due to inflation worries. Last week, CPI for the second quarter eased to 1.9%, down from 2.2% in Q1 and just below the central bank's target of 2%-3%. This cements a rate cut at the Aug. 12 meeting, after the RBA shocked the markets last month when it held rates. The markets had widely priced in a rate cut but the RBA defended its non-move, saying it wanted to see additional inflation data. The week ended with a softer-than-expected US employment report. Nonfarm payrolls for July rose by only 73 thousand, missing the market estimate of 110 thousand. Adding to the bad news, the June and May reports were both revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2%, up from 4.1%. The weak July reading and the downward revisions indicate that the labor market may be cooling more quickly than initially anticipated. The weak numbers support the case for the Fed to lower interest rates at the next rate meeting in September. The likelihood of a cut has climbed to 75%, compared to 63% on Thursday. The soft jobs report should serve as a wake-up call regarding the effect of US tariffs on the economy, as the employment picture is worse than previously thought.
by OANDA
Australian inflation lower than forecast, Fed up nextThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6500, down 0.15% on the day. Australia's inflation rate for the second quarter came in lower than expected. Headline CPI dropped to 2.1% y/y, down from 2.4% in the prior two quarters and falling to its lowest level since Q1 2021. This was just below the market estimate of 2.2%. Quarterly, CPI rose 0.7% in Q2, down from 0.9% in Q1 and below the market estimate of 0.8%. Services inflation continued to decline and fell to 3.3% from 3.7%. The drop in CPI was driven by a sharp drop in automotive fuel costs. The RBA's key gauge for core CPI, the trimmed mean, slowed to 2.7% from 2.9%, matching the market forecast. This was the lowest level since Q4 2021. The positive inflation report is a reassuring sign that inflation is under control and should cement a rate cut at the Aug. 12 meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia stunned the markets earlier this month when it held rates, as a quarter-point cut had been all but certain. Bank policymakers said at that meeting that they wanted to wait for more inflation data to make sure that inflation was contained and today's inflation report should reassure even the hawkish members that a rate cut is the right move at the August meeting. The Federal Reserve meets today and is widely expected to maintain the benchmark rate for a fifth straight meeting. Investors will be looking for clues regarding the September meeting, as the markets have priced in a rate cut at 63%, according to CME's FedWatch.
by OANDA
AUD/JPY: Capitalizing on the RBA-BoJ Monetary Policy GapThis analysis outlines a compelling short opportunity in AUD/JPY, driven by a powerful confluence of fundamental and technical factors. The trade is strategically positioned ahead of a key catalyst that could unlock significant downside potential. 1️⃣ The Core Thesis: A Clear Policy Divergence The primary driver behind this trade is the stark and widening gap in monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The RBA is signaling a clear dovish pivot amid a weakening labor market, making an interest rate cut imminent. Conversely, the BoJ is in a tightening phase, creating a fundamental headwind for the AUD relative to the JPY. This divergence underpins the strategic bearish bias. 2️⃣ The Confirmation: Technical Alignment This fundamental view is supported by a clear technical picture. The pair is in a well-defined downtrend and is currently testing a critical support level. This alignment of fundamental and technical factors presents a clear short opportunity, with the entry positioned for a breakdown below this key juncture. 3️⃣ The Catalyst: The RBA Bulletin The immediate catalyst for this trade is the upcoming RBA Bulletin on July 24, 2025. Any dovish language from the RBA concerning Australia's economic outlook will likely reinforce expectations for a rate cut and accelerate the downward move in AUD/JPY. The Trade Setup ✅ Here is the recommended trade setup: 📉 Trade: SHORT AUD/JPY 👉 Entry: 96.56200 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 96.96386 🎯 Take Profit: 95.49900 🧠 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.65 This setup offers a compelling risk-reward profile, capitalizing on a clear and powerful macroeconomic theme. The trade is designed to perform should the expected catalyst confirm the underlying bearish fundamentals.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
Australia faces a dilemma between inflation and labor slowdown The RBA, in its latest meeting minutes, emphasized that the recent rate hold reflects a cautious and gradual approach toward achieving its inflation target. While the central bank noted the need for further data to confirm a decline in inflation, some Board members flagged rising unemployment as a signal of potential labor market softening. Bloomberg added that Australia’s export-driven economy remains vulnerable to tariff-related uncertainties, while private demand growth remains sluggish. AUDUSD extended its uptrend after testing the low at 0.6455, reaching as high as 0.6560. Both EMAs narrow the gap, indicating a potential shift toward bullish momentum. If AUDUSD holds above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward the high at 0.6595. Conversely, if AUDUSD breaks below the support at 0.6540, the price may retreat toward 0.6510.
by inkicho_exness
Australian dollar eyes China GDPThe Australian dollar has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6555, down 0.32% on the day. The Aussie took advantage of US dollar weakness last week as it touched a high of 0.6593, its highest level since November 2024. China's economy is expected to have grown by 5.1% in the second quarter, after back-to-back quarters of gains of 5.4%. The government's annual growth target is around 5.0%, and policymakers won't complain if this target is exceeded for a third consecutive quarter. China's exports were up 5.8% y/y in June, above the consensus of 5.0% and well above the May gain of 4.8%. The jump in exports was driven by a trade truce with the US that lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 55%. Still, the economic picture is uncertain as the tariff truce ends in August. China will also release industrial production and retail sales for June, with the markets forecasting weaker numbers. Industrial production, which has been decelerating in recent months, is expected to ease to 5.6% from 5.8%, while retail sales are expected to fall to 5.6%, down from 6 .4% in May, which was the strongest level since December 2023. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday, with a forecast of a 0.4% gain for July . This follows a 0.4% gain in June. Consumers remain cautious, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut in May and lower inflation. The RBA shocked the markets last week when it maintained the cash rate at 3.85%, as all signs appeared to point to a quarter-point cut. The RBA meets next on August 12. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6562. Below, there is support at 0.6550 There is resistance at 0.6570 and 0.6582
by OANDA
Australian dollar stabilizes after RBA's surpriseThe Australian dollar is in positive territory after a three-day skid, declining 1.5%. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.50% on the day. The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.95% earlier before retreating. The Reserve Bank of Australia blindslided the markets on Tuesday as the central bank held the cash rate at 3.85%. The markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 96%, but the RBA had the last laugh. For the first time, the RBA published the vote tally, which was 6-3 in favor of maintaining the rate. The rate statement was cautious, as members said "there are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation". Governor Bullock tried to calm the markets, saying that the decision was about "timing rather than direction" and that the Bank would "wait a few weeks" to confirm that inflation was on track to ease and remain sustainably around 2.5%. Bullock said that "we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again". Inflation is moving in the right direction but the RBA wants to see the second-quarter inflation report on July 30, ahead of the rate decision on Aug. 12. Headline CPI in May eased to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% in April. The core rate dropped to 2.8% from 2.4% in April, the lowest rate since early 2022. The RBA will be hoping that waiting till August will provide some clarity with regard to US tariff policy. President Trump has pledged new tariffs against various countries but this move is not expected to have much impact on Australia's economy. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6513. Above, there is resistance at 0.6541 There is support at 0.6463 and 0.6435
by OANDA
Australian dollar stabilizes after RBA's surprise The Australian dollar is in positive territory after a three-day skid, declining 1.5%. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.50% on the day. The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.95% earlier before retreating. The Reserve Bank of Australia blindslided the markets on Tuesday as the central bank held the cash rate at 3.85%. The markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 96%, but the RBA had the last laugh. For the first time, the RBA published the vote tally, which was 6-3 in favor of maintaining the rate. The rate statement was cautious, as members said "there are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation". Governor Bullock tried to calm the markets, saying that the decision was about "timing rather than direction" and that the Bank would "wait a few weeks" to confirm that inflation was on track to ease and remain sustainably around 2.5%. Bullock said that "we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again". Inflation is moving in the right direction but the RBA wants to see the second-quarter inflation report on July 30, ahead of the rate decision on Aug. 12. Headline CPI in May eased to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% in April. The core rate dropped to 2.8% from 2.4% in April, the lowest rate since early 2022. The RBA will be hoping that waiting till August will provide some clarity with regard to US tariff policy. President Trump has pledged new tariffs against various countries but this move is not expected to have much impact on Australia's economy. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6513. Above, there is resistance at 0.6541 There is support at 0.6463 and 0.6435
by OANDA
AUD/USD Short: Riding the Perfect Storm to 0.6400Hello, traders! 🚀 A rare and powerful setup is forming on AUD/USD, and all signs are pointing decisively lower. 👇 This isn't just a simple technical pattern; it's a perfect storm of fundamental, technical, and event-driven factors aligning to create a high-conviction short opportunity. If you're looking for a clean setup with a clear catalyst, this is it. Let's break it down! 🧐 The Core Thesis: Why We're Bearish 🌪️ This trade is built on three powerful pillars that are converging at the same time: Massive Policy Divergence: 🇺🇸 vs 🇦🇺 This is the engine of the trade. The Fed (USD): Remains HAWKISH 🦅. They are laser-focused on fighting stubborn inflation and have signaled they are in no rush to cut rates. The RBA (AUD): Is actively DOVISH 🐨. They've already cut rates and are widely expected to cut again this week to support a weakening economy. Result: This widening gap in interest rate policy creates a fundamental tailwind that heavily favors a stronger USD and a weaker AUD. 💸 The Dual-Catalyst Event (July 9th): 🗓️ This is the trigger. FOMC Minutes Release: The minutes from the Fed's last meeting are expected to confirm their hawkish stance, reinforcing USD strength. Tariff Deadline: A 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs expires on the same day . The base case is that tariffs will be reimposed, sparking a risk-off move in the markets. Result: Risk-off sentiment is toxic for the risk-sensitive Aussie dollar (AUD) and a magnet for the safe-haven US dollar (USD). This is a potential double-whammy for AUD/USD. 💥 The Technical Picture is Screaming "Down" 📉 The chart tells a crystal-clear story of rejection and weakness. As you can see on the 4H chart, the price action is incredibly bearish after failing to break out higher. The Great Wall of Resistance: Bulls threw everything they had at the 0.6590 - 0.6600 resistance zone and were decisively rejected. 🧱 This wasn't just any level; it was an 8-month high and a major long-term resistance area. A failure this strong is a huge red flag for buyers. 🛑 Momentum has Flipped: We saw classic bearish divergence on the higher timeframes, and as you can see on this 4H chart, we have now decisively broken below the recent rising channel. The path of least resistance has flipped from up to down. 👇 The Trade Plan 🎯 Here are the precise levels for executing this trade idea. Asset: AUD/USD Direction: Short (Sell) 📉 Entry Zone: ➡️ Look for a patient entry on a pullback to the 0.6535 - 0.6550 area. This was previous support and is now expected to act as strong resistance. We want to sell into strength. Stop Loss: 🛑 A daily close above 0.6610 . This level is safely above the recent highs. A break here would invalidate our bearish thesis. Target 1 (TP1): ✅ 0.6475 . This is the first logical support level. A good area to take partial profits and move your stop loss to break-even. Target 2 (TP2): 🏆 0.6400 . This is our primary target, representing the bottom of the multi-week trading range and offering an excellent risk-to-reward ratio. Conclusion: 💡 It's rare for fundamentals, technicals, and a major event catalyst to align so perfectly. The rejection at major resistance, combined with the powerful fundamental driver of policy divergence and the upcoming dual-catalyst on July 9th, makes this a high-conviction setup. This is my analysis and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk carefully. What do you think? Are you bearish on the Aussie too? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇 And if you found this analysis helpful, please give it a BOOST 🚀 and FOLLOW for more trade ideas! 👍
Short
by MaxellAguiran
1
AUD/JPY: Rejection at Key ResistanceThis is a high-conviction short setup on AUD/JPY based on a powerful rejection pattern that has formed on the 4-hour chart. As you can see, the price spiked into the critical resistance zone between 95.00 and 95.55 but was immediately and forcefully rejected, leaving behind a long "Exhaustion Spike." This is a classic sign of buyer exhaustion and seller dominance. It tells us that despite the recent rally, there is significant supply waiting at these higher levels. This price action provides a clear opportunity to short the pair in anticipation of a significant move down. 🏦 Fundamental Analysis The fundamental backdrop provides a strong tailwind for this trade, with two key drivers: 1️⃣ Central Bank Divergence: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in an easing cycle, having recently cut rates to 3.85% with more cuts expected. In stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is on a path of normalization, having already raised its rate to 0.50%. This divergence in monetary policy is structurally bearish for AUD/JPY. 2️⃣ Imminent Catalysts: This week is packed with event risk that is skewed to the downside for this pair. We have the RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday, July 8th , and the U.S. tariff deadline on Wednesday, July 9th . A dovish RBA or a "risk-off" move from the tariff news would likely accelerate the decline in AUD (a risk currency) and strengthen the JPY (a safe-haven currency). 📊 Technical Analysis The price action on the chart confirms the bearish bias: 1️⃣ 4-Hour Rejection: The "Exhaustion Spike" at the 95.00 - 95.55 supply zone is the primary signal. It shows a clear failure by buyers and a strong takeover by sellers at a key level. 2️⃣ Long-Term Trend: On the daily chart, the price is trading below the critical 200-day moving average , confirming the long-term trend remains bearish. 3️⃣ Waning Momentum: There is a clear bearish divergence on the daily RSI. The price made a higher high, but the momentum indicator made a lower high, signaling that the rally is internally weak and losing steam. 📋 Trading Setup This is a swing trade designed to capture a significant correction with a simple "set and forget" plan. 📉 Direction: SHORT / SELL 👉 Entry: Sell Limit @ 94.85 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 95.60 🎯 Take Profit: 91.10 💡 Rationale: The entry is placed strategically to capitalize on a potential retest of the rejection area. The stop loss is placed safely above the rejection wick and the major resistance zone. The take profit targets the major structural support from the May 2025 lows, offering an excellent risk-to-reward ratio.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
1
Trading the July RBA decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver its latest policy decision on Tuesday, 9 July. Markets are heavily positioned for a 25-basis point cut, which would bring the official cash rate down to 3.60%. Major Australian banks including CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ are aligned in expecting a cut this month, with some anticipating further easing in August and November. A confirmed cut paired with dovish guidance could place further downside pressure on the Australian dollar, particularly against the US dollar and Japanese yen. AUD/USD remains capped below the 0.6580–0.6600 region, with repeated rejections suggesting strong overhead resistance. A break above this zone would be needed to shift momentum higher. Conversely, a confirmed break below 0.6520 could open a move toward the 0.6450 area. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY has rebounded firmly off its May lows and is now testing resistance near 95.30. This area has repeatedly capped upside since mid-June, making it a key level to watch into the RBA decision.
by BlackBull Markets