AUDUSD gives us plenty of clues whenever we record the key levels after major monetary policy changes or simply news related to the RBA. If we check these levels, also paying attention to levels generated from international events, like Fed news, or events like Brexit, we can get a clear picture of what is more likely to happen and what price has to do to sustain...
AUDUSD found support at the upper deviation of the recent downtrend's linear regression channel today. This level coincides with the mid point of the recent VIX 75% retracement, or 'smart money buying spree' key level, which happens after VIX spikes by 5 points or more, and the smart money 'buys the dip' in risk assets, making VIX retrace 75% of its recent climb,...
We have a nice setup in AUDUSD, although of lower probability than the others I posted today, since the longer term trend signals on chart aren't confirmed yet. Interestingly, price bottomed at the June 24th's session low...rings a bell? We can extrapolate the signals from commodities, to the ones in FX pairs, and take the daily chart signals as an excuse to join...
As long as price remains above 0.7610, and a break above the down trend line @ 0.7700, we might see more upside potential on AUDUSD; potentially reaching for the previous Supply Zone @ 0.7810.
With RBA maintaining rates with an overall neutral tone, we might see the Aussie being support for the time being. Risk sentiment might be the key driver for the Aussie for the month of October.
As expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent...
As expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent...
We can enter longs in this pair here. Risk is a drop to 0.94199, but the target is 0.99359 at least. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long EURAUD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURAUD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.87%, hence there is a implied 99.13% chance of reversal on the daily. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURAUD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk...
SHORT AUDNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on...
Long EURAUD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURAUD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.87%, hence there is a implied 99.13% chance of reversal on the daily. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURAUD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk...
SHORT AUDNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on...
Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY...
Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY...
RBA minutes broadly neutral on the margin. Aussie rates (30 day bills) are implying a 5% chance of an October 25bps cut. In general we've seen aussie rates firm up, with 30d bills moving from 7% last week and 9% the week before to now 5%, this firming/ steepening has been the general consensus further along the maturity curve where rate cut hopes are diminishing...
RBA MINUTES: JUDGED CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS - Steady Decision Took Into Account Rate Cuts In May And August, Recent Data - Estimated Around Half Of The August Rate Cut Had Been Passed On To Bank Customers - Repeats Rising A$ Would Complicate Economic Rebalancing - Decline In A$ Since 2013 Continued To Support Traded...
We can go long the Aussie here, or if we don't see bearish follow through in the next 3 days if more conservative. Stop loss should be below 0.7392. You can either take it at market or wait 3 days to jump in. Until FOMC is out I don't expect to see long lasting directional moves in the dollar, and neither should you in my opinion. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
We have a good chance to join this downtrend here, short at market with stop at 0.7732 or more aggressively 0.7657. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.