RBA Cut the Cash rate to 1.50% by 25bps, the market has had a very subdued reaction though, barely falling 30pips from market. I still think there should be more downside here and into the mid/low 74xx before the full fade comes in - so luckily room for retails to get in, looks like the algos were having a day off today.
This is positive for any kiwi$ short...
Inline with the mixed information below, i too am undecided with what the RBA will do.
There are several arguments for a cut e.g. CPI falling at an alarming rate/ strong trend; strong aussie; 1.75% high yield and likely to maintain AUD strength. But several against e.g. some of the trimmed prints show stability at 1.7%; need for more data - aussie employment...
AUD/USD has been trading within range (0.742-0.764) all July. Some fierce resistance was at 0755, 0.761 and 0.764 levels. Meanwhile, 0.742 was July's major support with 0.749 acting as a front line support that kept bears from taking over.
Friday trading saw the pair failing its last attempt to break the 0.749 levels before it spiked towards 0.76104 (23rd June...
End of the bull run
Global Equity Indexes:
1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing.
- IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest)...
AM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision
1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction to show that inflation is growing at a slow...
On the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong...
AUDNZD has reached an extremely low level as you can see in the quarterly chart, and as is typical in cross pairs, they tend to revert back to the long term mean when this happens.
The best way to know when it'll turn is when fundamentals favor outperformance of one of the currencies over the other, specially when technicals align.
In the weekly chart you can...
FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly".
Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate...
Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view:
1. On the daily and NU currently Trades close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive.
- Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from...
The Paradoxical Risk-on/ Risk-off Asset positive correlation:
1. Risk off assets have outperformed to date, with Gold leading the gains at 28%, JPY following at 18% and US 10y treasuries Trading 16% up in 2016 - average at 20.5%.
2. Meanwhile, SPX trades 5% up since 4.1.2016 but more importantly, since 20th January lows SPX is up 15%.
3. this is significantly...
Short AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons:
1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph).
- With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to...
On May 9, MacroView issued a short idea on AUDUSD and highlighted the strong correlations with copper and gold, which we would see the trifecta fall 2.93 percent, 4.90 percent and 6.68 percent respectively.
We've seen all three etch out bottoms in early June, yet copper is retesting those lows on unexpected increases in inventories. The AUDUSD went big following...
After the FED Announcement on Friday it seems that the pair has made its gradual retracement back near the 50% of the 3rd wave after a final rally in favour of the Australian Dollar. We have a good resistance structure holding the pair from heading any higher in order for it to start its final 5th wave down towards the Feb lows. As you can see the 4th is...
We have reentered as per my latest update in my previous publication, see related ideas. Price has expanded the daily range today, so it's clear bulls are active, and we can expect to see a very nice move to the upside.
If not in, I'd reccomend rushing in with longs, stops can be under the swing low, or even under today's open.
Sentiment is extremely bearish for...
After retesting the descending May trendline on Friday, the pair closed near the 0.618 levels (0.78351-0.68270) standing at 0.72121, leaving some room for speculations over the next two weeks.
Possible scenarios:
1- A continuation of the bearish May movement with 0.7110 as first target with a possible break leading to further decline towards the Grand...
After an extended decline since the 2015 high, it appears like GBPAUD has hit rock bottom.
I'm long from 1.85243, and added today at 1.85526.
I expect price to retest the low volume resistance at 2.00 in the intermediate term, and possibly aim for new highs if we break this level in time.
If you're not in the trade, try to enter at market with a 3 times the daily...
