Markets are slow, they did not change much for the last sessions. Well, the only mover of the Asian session is AUD which found support at rallied after RBA hiked from 3.10% to 3.35% as expected. More important RBA mentioned that further hikes will be needed to bring down inflation, which is not a surprise after a latest jump in CPI figures. But despite the hawkish...
Throughout the month of January, the AUDUSD traded consistently higher within a bullish channel, after bouncing off the 0.67 round number support level, at the start of the year. While the move higher was primarily driven by the weakness in the DXY, 2 CPI y/y data releases (inflation growth indicator) and no Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision...
Summary of the RBA’s February 2023 statement: • The RBA hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35% • Underlying inflation was above expectations at 6.9% • Strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures • CPI is expected to decline this year due to global factors and slower growth in domestic demand • Medium-term inflation expectations...
The Australian dollar has extended its slide on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6884 in Europe, down 0.82%. Australia's December employment report was weaker than expected, sending the Australian dollar sharply lower. The headline reading showed a loss of 14,600 in total employment, which may have soured investors. The release wasn't all that bad, as full-time...
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement for a second successive day. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6696, up 0.12%. Australia's economy underperformed in Q3, with a modest gain of 0.6% m/m. This was lower than the Q2 print of 0.9% and beneath the 0.7% consensus and also marked the weakest quarterly growth this year. Annualized GDP climbed...
If the RBNZ hike by 75bp tomorrow in line with the consensus, it will be their first hike of this magnitude on record. It would also mean they have to upgrade their terminal rate of their OCR projection, which could be deemed as a hawkish hike by markets and send NZD higher against other currencies. Of course, this also leaves the Kiwi dollar to weakness should...
I think the Kiwi offers a tremendous reward to risk ratio on the short side here. The situation with persistent inflation and rising energy prices is certainly a headwind for the economy, combined with Powell's increased determination as per his last speech at Jackson Hole, has helped bears gain ground here, triggering both a daily and a weekly down trend...
I suspect the Dollar Index is reversing, so I am identifying the currency pairs best positioned to rally from here. Given Australia's commodity exports, the Aussie pair is likely to benefit from increasing demand for copper, iron ore, lithium, to name a few, for years to come. Such tailwind won't help much if the Federal Reserve is still embarking in QT and...
The Aussie fell to below the 0.6300 target zone yesterday (marked by last week's VPOC - or volume point of control) With the RBA's quarterly MPS (monetary policy statement) and retail sales released at today at 11:30 AEDT, perhaps upgraded inflation forecasts can give the Aussie a bump higher. But whilst prices remain beneath the monthly pivot point, such bounces...
As China reaffirmed its commitment to its zero-corona strategy, dashed hopes for an economic revival that may increase global demand, the New Zealand currency declined below $0.59, erasing gains after a robust surge. China has said that it will continue to impose restrictions in the interim. Naturally, that raises the possibility of a possible adjustment as...
Australian CPI beat expectations by a long mile yesterday, as did inflation for New Zealand in their most recent report. But the key difference between Australia and New Zealand for currency traders to be aware of is their central banks. The RBNZ have been far more aggressive than the RBA - with the latter dropping to 25bp rate increases and their rate remaining...
To strip out the effects of the Fed we can take a look at the moves in AUD/NZD, both bolstered by risk-on sentiment. In this pair, the 25bps hike from the RBA is clearly seen as the bank underdelivering on its mandate to bring inflation back to its 2% target, a clear divergence from the RBNZ so far. The bank is due to meet on November 23rd and markets are...
AUD/USD is down for a third straight day. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6395, down 0.24%. The RBA kicks off a busy week of central bank decisions when it meets on Tuesday. This will be followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. The RBA has delivered a steep rate-tightening cycle this year and the upcoming meeting...
AUDUSD reversed from the 0.6520 high last week to sit just above the 0.64 support level, ending the 250pip swing last week. The RBA interest rate decision is due on Tuesday and the expectation is for a rate hike of 25bps taking interest rates from 2.60% to 2.85%. In the previous meeting, the RBA conveyed that it was looking to tune back on the scale of future...
EUR/USD is in a holding pattern ahead of today's ECB rate meeting. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0068, down 0.16%. The ECB holds its policy meeting later today, amidst difficult economic conditions in the eurozone. Inflation jumped to 9.9% in September, up sharply from 9.1%. The manufacturing and services sectors are in decline and confidence...
Australian inflation surpassed estimates in the third quarter, reaching a 32-year high, and the Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates again to battle inflationary pressures. Rising rent and fuel prices were the primary causes of the reading being higher than expected, as Australia grappled with high borrowing rates and rising commodity prices. Food...
AUD/USD is considerably lower today, trading at 0.6273, down 0.57%. Australia releases employment data on Thursday, with the markets expecting that the report will show that the labour market remains robust. The economy is forecast to have created 25,000 jobs in September, following the 35,000 gain in August. Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.5%. The strong...
The RBA are expected to hike interest rates by 50bp at 14:30 today and take the cash rate to 2.85%. From here we suspect they’ll revert to 25bp hikes with the potential to pause in December or January. The Aussie remains within an established downtrend and within a wider bearish channel on the 4-hour chart. It appears it is within the third wave of a 3-wave...