Here we are witnessing a very interesting move taking place for the Turkish financial system. After finishing a clear corrective ABC sequence since the August highs we are now in the early stages of an impulsive move to finish the more broader 5th wave in a very large sequence. For those tracking the updates in USDTRY in the previous charts (see attached:...
From the previous idea (see attached: "Russel leading the consolidation pack") you will know that Russell in many ways has been acting as a leading indicator for US Equities. This is interesting timingwise, especially when the break to new highs in S&P and NQ occurred was not comparable in Russell. So here we are now only needing to track the 1480-1475 region....
With large account deficits, disinflation and widening interest rate differentials there are many reasons to not be bullish China. Whilst on the political side there is a desperate need to keep CNY stable and stronger because China needs to attract capital inflows for the second half of 2019. Why? Because they are trying to facilitate the process of...
After previously tracking the reversal (see attached: "Another key reversal in play in USDRUB") finally the break of 65 has come. From a technical standpoint this was important as it unlocked the 62.5 lows. Russia has been one of the out performers on the currency board so far this year and I continue to see scope for more gains, irrespective of the very near...
Here we have a very wide ABC in play with the C leg finishing at 7.25 - 7.28. From a technical perspective, the market has presented a flawless 5 wave impulsive move with a three wave retracement. Those who are betting on the upside will be coming in here at the 50 and 61.8% weekly retracement levels at 5.09; and we can expect a continuation. There is scope...
=> Here we are isolating the Yen once more and expecting a worsening outlook of US assets to continue which will raise the prospect of asset repatriation out of the US. Whilst risk may be rebounding temporarily as the FED attempts a dovish shift, and US-China trade tensions are likely to continue de-escalating, USDJPY will still like remain on offer amid broader...
On the monetary side, Fed taking the spotlight so let’s start digging into the details… Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy. My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at...
Soft macro data from France continues... Markets are likely to want to test ECB willingness to shift into easing mode again so the downside risks for 1.09 remain in play for EURUSD. This will carry the rest of the EUR board. A quick move in play here to kill the week off as we start the initial stages of a test in the lows at 0.745. Best of luck all
At this point markets have priced in the support for a Brexit extension of at least one-quarter. The votes today and tomorrow are unlikely to affect EURGBP significantly. We are still tracking the same break to the upside that we have been for the past few weeks. There is a chance of a small move lower here with the headline on the extension of A50, however,...
Here we are once again looking at the 5th and final wave in the uptrend meaning it's time to add more exposure on dollar longs once more, we are in the beginning of an impulse wave. The support line will come into play on the technical side and we are set to mark the turning point and kick start flows till the end of summer. Let's track the charts closely, we...
As most of you already know the targets below remain in play. The ECB introduced a risk premium on the EUR which is only going to increase as the EZ outlook softens. I like playing EUR against pockets of USD strength as we have the possibility for renewed pricing on Fed hikes in the picture and JPY via fiscal year-end repatriation flows. Best of luck all shorts
Here we are tracking a large swing to the downside in oil. I would like to fade the highs here and target the range lows (see attached idea for those wanting to target 45 in the coming months). This idea is for the coming sessions as crazy as it sounds, we have some monster moves coming on the demand side. The ECB confirmed the slowdown is real and the FED are...
Watch closely at Siacoin. It is starting to showing horns. It is a good opportunity to gain some nice profit. First resistance = First target. But keep in mind there is a bigger room to growth in long term. Just set a long and enjoy the ride !
Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (RDEB) is coming very soon, plus AIM Vectors with gene therapy entering into play. On the technical side we have reached the end of the line for the ABC sequence, from here a very natural flow will take place back towards the highs. Best of luck
After bouncing from the 200MA we are starting to run out of steam. Here I am expecting a return back towards the 49.89 and 41.20 lows over the coming weeks. The ECB confirmed the global slowdown is real, the risk approval has gone. We are set for lower prices via the demand side. On the technical side A break of the 200 & 50 MA's will open up the downside with...
This is the first time I have charted Nat Gas on Tradingview so we are starting with a blank canvas. We completed a large 5 wave sequence in the first quarter of 2016 and have since bounced in what has been a corrective ABC. This has clearly completed and we are looking at a very aggressive rejection. Support at 2.3 / 2.5 is approaching but the sustained...
Here we can see the zoomed out macro map for the flows in usdjpy. If you are a believer in the bullish USD story and see this as an ABC corrective leg, after completing a multi decade 5 wave sequence. Timing wise we have the seasonality flows to Yen as we approach the end of the fiscal year. Although the name of the game is to park in dollar so these are...
Here we can see the 5th wave targets for this large sequence. From a birds eye view we have the potential to extend as high as 3.67 over the next few quarters. Recommend buying support here at current prices with targets at 3.49 up to 3.67. Best of luck