A vote of no confidence by Tory MPs against Theresa May will be held in one hour.
If at least 159 (out of 316) Conservative MPs speak out against the Prime Minister, she will be overthrown.
* A departure of Theresa May would have unpredictable consequences on the Brexit process and therefore drive cable lower by a lot....
* However, it appears, according to ...
Price seems to finish a Triangle pattern.
We should be in the final wave E, wich can find resistance at the 61.8% to 78.6% retracement.
If this count is correct, we should see a new low being made soon.
This pattern gets negated if price moves above 54.20 !
Looks like this Triangle is coming to an end as price is in the support zone of wave ((e)) of wave 4.
So, we should see a bounce towards 5.20 and higher for wave 5.
A break above 4.76 is a good confirmation of bullish move.
Invalidation level is at 3.98
R/R > 1/3 !
We finished a 3 waves correction at 1.6357 before seeing price come down hard & fast in a impulsive manner to 1.5360.
We can count those 5 waves down, meaning we are now in a correction higher before resuming this downside move.
(See daily chart)
We are in a higher degree wave 2 correction composed of an ABC correction.
Wave A was successfully traded to the upside and we remained on the bench for wave B down.
Wave B got a bit compilcated as it is an Expanded Flat correction (that's why it's not a good idea to trade against the trend).
We are now in the last moments of a 5 waves move down for wave ((c)) of ...
Be careful ahead of tomorrow's NFP report.
I strongly suggest to wait for a five-wave move up followed by a break above 1.1418 which would be a confirmation of a bullish continuation towards 1.15 or higher if you want to go long.
You can short it now if you like.
If we are in this Triangle pattern, then price should go lower & wave ((e)) should not go ...
We might be in wave 4 of an impulse, playing out as a triangle, meaning we will have only one more push up to around 21 before selling hard.
This move to the upside is wave C of a zig zag wave (B) of an impulsive wave ((4)).
How to trade this ?
Wait for wave 5 to develop and terminate, then wait for a pullback in an impulsive manner for a lower degree wave 1 ...
We got a Leading Diagonal for wave 1 and a Flat correction for wave 2.
If that's the case, this move higher is wave ((i)) of higher degree wave 3 and the corrective wave ((ii)) might be in place as it turned at the 61.8% retracement.
We should therefore expect wave 3 to develop in a 5 wave move to the upside.
The count gets negated if price moves below wave ((i)) ...
We have a completed leading diagonal in higher degree wave (1) after wich price fell in a complex WXY correction down to 1.278.
The fast move following this wave (2) and break of upper channel confirms the bottom is in place.
This might be a wave 1 of smaller degree and we are currently in wave 2 wich should find support near 1.291 to 1.300.
You can short this ...
I think we finished a large ABCDE Triangle at 0.8655
This move higher therefore should be wave 1 of an impulsive wave.
We are nearing it's termination point as we can count 4 waves already and making wave ((v)) as an ending diagonal it seems.
This means, once this larger wave 1 ends, we will see price pullback in a 3waves move lower, ideally to the 0.618 ...
We might be in orange wave ((c)) of pink Y of green (B).
Therefore, I'm looking for price to make a new low beneath 1.2662 around the 1.2630 - 1.2500 zone before rallying up for wave (C).
In this case we would be in an Expanded Flat, where wave B should ideally turn before the 138.2% Retracement wich is @ 1.1420.
The alternate count ...