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China fears wreck commodity currenciesAs we all know by now, the Chinese markets were only open 14 minutes before a crushing 7% loss tripped safeguards. Recently, news came out to the effect that we can expect a further devaluation of their currency. This will hurt commodity currencies like AUD. In fact, its slipping as I'm writing this. My short position is bolstered by massive pressure from above via the Ichimoku Cloud, and the difference between the MACD and signal is rapidly closing suggesting a bearish turnaround. The RSI gives us a green light.
Short
by quantguy
Reuters CRB Commodity Index Can Bottom In 2016 Top In this article we will look at CRB Commodity Index. This is important market to track for overall direction on commodities. What we see on the weekly chart below is a five wave of decline within wave C which means that current weakness can be coming to an end. Ideally market will turn up in 2016, but it can happen from around 28,00 or from next Fibo support at 25.00. if we are on the right track then grains, as well as oil and even gold can turn up as next year while USD trend may slow down because of negative correlation. www.ew-forecast.com
C
by ew-forecast
1
The perfect equilibrium, the most boring commodity!The first time I tried a long in cotton futures was ard Dec/2014 and Jan/2015. I played a few bullish waves this year, and I made some money, but trade sizes were not too big. Why not? Because this commodity has become the most boring one! It is simply not trending. So you may ask why do I look at it from time to time? The reason is of course that once it makes a breakout, the move will be sharp, quick and massive! Just look at the weekly chart how it used to behave! Compared to past, Cotton's volatility is extremely supressed. Not surprizing, as it has been trading around the 63 perfect equilibrium for more than 16 months now! Certanly it will be more interesting next year! Weekly: - Perfect equilibrium of 63 is reoeresented by thin Kumo lines ahead. Price has been trading in a slowly tightenning range since Aug/2014! Ichimou setup just could not be more neutral then this! - EWO has built an extremely long term bullish divergence, right now stays around zero! - Heikin Ashi is bullish - Still multiple resistances above at 65 and 66 Daily: - Ichimoku is bullish. - Heikin-Ashi shows correction. Price should fins support around Kijun sen or Kumo (62,50-63,25 area) where selling should ease. You can look for buy signals in that range. For now it is still a tick-tock buy the dips in small sizes. The game and the big long would come with a break above 65 and more above 66!
CLong
by Kumowizard
GBPAUD LONG LOOKING FOR A BUYING OPPORTUNITY AT MY BUY ZONE WHICH IS IN CONFLUENCE WITH A FIB LEVEL AND A 3RD TOUCH OF THE TREND LINE. A BREAK OF THIS BUY ZONE WILL LEAD DOWN TO MY NEXT BUY ZONE. FUNDAMENTALLY THIS TRADE IS ONLY GOING IN ONE DIRECTION IN THE LONG TERM BECAUSE THE BOE (BANK OF ENGLAND) STATED THAT THEY ARE CLOSER TO RAISING RATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE END OF THIS YEAR OR IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 WHICH LEAVES GBP THE SECOND STRONGEST CURRENCY AFTER THE DOLLAR.ON THE FLIP SIDE AUD IS BEARISH ALONG SIDE THE OTHER COMMODITY CURRENCIES SUCH AS CAD AND NZD. CHINA SITUATION IS ALSO WEIGHING DOWN AUD. FIRST TARGET AT SWING HIGH/2.12000
Long
by remelthomas
Aussie trades at 6 yr low on weaker commodity prices,targets0.73AUD/USD is trading weak and declined till 0.73905 as the collapse in Chinese equities drove fears about country’s economy. Copper prices has fallen to 2009 lows yesterday on concerns over demand from China, world biggest consumer Commodity currencies especially AUD which is proxy for Chinese investment has fallen to six year low. Technically intraday bullishness can be seen only above 0.7435. On the downside any break below 0.7390 will drag the pair further down till 0.7367/0.7340/0.7300. It is good to sell on rallies 0.7398 with SL around 0.7435 for the TP of 0.7345/0.7300
Short
by FxWirePro
3
ZS upward "C" wave to come (???)Soybean has been a tough market for those traders seeking volatility as it has been on a “wait-and-see” mode for a couple of month now. I do not expect any major movement on the short/mid run; however, I do see a possibility to “widen” the current trading range. The wave counting above suggests that a B wave would be completed (or nearly completed) and a possible upward C wave would be on the radar screen. For those (unlike me) seeking short-term opportunities it may be a good commodity to keep track on. I am still holding my long position with stops on a range around 920, although I confess the weekly chart does not look that bullish. In fact, the MACD divergence is killing my sleep lately. See my comments on ZC at:
CBOT:ZSH2015Long
by againstthegrain
2
Trade Follow Up (Commodity Channel Index-Bearish Signal)What looked high risk trade seems now relatively safe trade. Yesterday, we did not have strong conviction when we called the bearish trade due to several reasons. Today, the price action confirmed our short term bias. CCI: the price is relatively far from its 20-bar average price. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures the deviation of the price from its average value (comparing to a chosen moving average, typically 20 bars). The oscillator is normalized by dividing by the typical deviation, so we get an oscillator fluctuating roughly between +100 and -100. Its too early to tell if this weakness or price reversal will materialize as gap fill process but as u see we need volume to increase probably over 50M shares to believe the reversal. Another bearish candle also seems formed today (Inside bar). This type of bearish formation only is seen during a strong uptrend. When the trading range is completely within the boundaries of the prior bar. This suggests the balance between buyers and sellers is becoming more evenly balanced. Today's small gap down was not usual but very violent but buyers showed up the first 3 minutes..u will see this if u use 3m chart, but almost most of the day, institutions were selling in small lots but retailers and new investors were not strong enough so we did not see a violent exit due to market situation. If market sells at any given time, expect a serious drop towards pre-earning price levels. If you like follow us and stay safe and tuned more to come.
F
by Xafada
NZDJPY's - Weakness could be an excellent short tradeFrom my earlier published chart of CADCHF was suggesting commodity currencies are exhibiting weakness. NZDJPY could be another example and an excellent configuration for hunting a short trade which as potential to drop back to 70 zone in due course if not lower. Also that this is a weekly chart so it getting a good entry and suitable position size would be very important to allow for natural volatility.cad Remember always that this is my interpretation of rice action. So do you own analysis for any trades you plan.
Short
by DanV
2