Closed this trade after the news in saudi.
In this screen cast I explore the Halloween Effect -which is a seasonal pattern - going back to 2012. My overall position is that from 2012, the Halloween Effect is more probable, However, it is not 100%. Statistical studies have been tracking this effect based on data largely based on a far more data before 2012 (but including the time up to the the present)....
Wheat has been bullish since the beginning of 2018 and I think there is reason to expect to see it continue. Some of the main drivers are: 1. Potential tariff introduction and major us trade partners like mexico moving to other wheat sources affect trade stability and commodities as a whole. 2. The developing drought in the US this summer Watching for a move...