This Asian selloff was marvellous - now we touched a local bottom before Europe's open - very likely we can see Europe consolidating/bullish after asian selling - and possibly NY will retrace that selloff. Expecting a retest of that upper local curve before moving to 15k. Cheers ! PS: just a small long, still bearish short term.
As expected - dragged down by overly euphoric stocks - but now forming an inversed HS bottom with a target inside the bullflag again - expecting only up from here.
I'm waiting for 13,8 before I buy anything - also will consider many factors before I long. $17k is our top area for now. Monitor the price action and stocks. Still short.
Not yet reached my target - actually have marked a second support in case a sell-off kicks in for whatever reason. Big BTC inflows to exchanges - aswell as some alts. Some are preparing for something big. Still short.
... the story stays the same - it held support and now should pop up as stocks will decline - new highs ahead.
Definitely stocks moved higher than I expeccted - I projected my expectations from US100 onto SPX - but definitely those two didn't correlate on this bounce - either way, what's coming next is known - and down we go from here. Watch the show.
VIX is holding that area pretty nicely - stocks topped out - what else is there to say. Watch the show from now on.
I'm a fan of curve channels just because they are clearer and they represent a more fluent trajectory of the price which makes more sense, than linear lines (Sentiment isn't linear, pa isn't linear , so channels shouldn't be aswell). And it still works - you can see on the monthly created a clear orange channel (curves are basically copy pasted from each other...
3 fractals agreeing on the movement - all of them show confluence at 13700 before going up to 22-25k. Final flush afterwards. Follow this idea and trade accordingly. Fractals source: Different Assets and BTC Timeframes.
We don't need fancy charts - here is what you need to know. And this is what I'm trading unless clear deviations get confirmed.
As you see - my area hasn't been reached yet. I see whales are fomoing in, but I prefer to catch the bottom of this fall - expecting $14k before I put longs. Not expecting sub $10k as many out there - that won't happen this year, but first 14 and then maybe 12 is in the reach - will know more in December.
BTC/SPX has been falling just like expected - But still hasn't reached my area - I expect stocks to retrace big time and crypto fall a bit stronger - this will make us reach that area. At the end of the year roles will switch. You'll see.
I dont change my mind about what is coming, but this drop has been way lower than anticipated - I expect it to be a fakeout based on how stocks have pushed up and should come back into the bull flag pattern (or descending wedge if someone prefers).
This is my long awaited confluence area - The price has reached weekly 200 ema (fakeout) but I expect it to hold this position and start getting bullish (bearish for stocks). This is it, we are before the final round. Unless some fundamentals pivot away the sentiment - but we should be headed for new highs on this one.
As you see - to me we have reached the limit. It is likely we end up the day at resistances and next week start taking profits - But I don't see it going further than this - post-CPI euphoria is calming down and a result of 7.7% isn't yet low.
CPI results were better than predicted, but the pace at which it gets lower each month is just so small, that I still see nothing bullish. I would even say that this could give the FED more pros to rise rates even higher to get things done quicker than they are doing. 7.7% is still a big figure so I keep my bearish bias - based on SPX and VIX - I don't see DXY...
Nothing has changed ! The lower stronger trendline was taken into account . I don't expect it to be crossed, therefore I stick to the same initial plan. As to me - we touched bottom. No more ups this year.
The bottom is still ahead of us ! We will bottom between 13-14k - and based on how we bounce from it - we will either consolidate and retest 15800 and fall lower in december - or bounce higher - but I will buy at mid 13's when we get there.