My overall 2022 target got hit - $16k. But I was awaiting this last dip before a relief rally - although that one got defended by bulls and it never happened.
New Year euphoria took over and we're headed directly into the relief rally - I expect now a retracement to around $19k to create the handle of this cupandhandle pattern . Next step would be the...
So as you see - what comes down, must go up - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is at record lows right now and when it did that - after some consolidation - it sttarted to grow - each time this happened, SPX entered a bear market.
Calculating the amount of days since the breakout of the UNRATE trend - it is a range of ~ 100 to 400 days before starting the decline on SPX -...
The price is being dragged down - and it will get there - I expect it to hit that green area soon and bounce from there. Not end of the bear market, but possible major bounce before going for those low 10's.
This would be a very solid bottom - if VIX popped up and BTC felt to it's major weekly support - it would create a wick on this supporting line and the bounce would be major. Expecting this to happen before buying into crypto.
So I have found this fractal - the ressamblance is uncanny. This also confirms a bit what I expect to happen - stocks should go a bit lower (Same for crypto) making DXY push to the upside for a fakeout - and then everything should bounce. Fractal agrees with that.
So still expecting a fakeout and then a big drop (high timeframe retest) of DXY
SPX Futures are showing a diamond formed on support and it bounced a 3rd time from the top of it - Together with the fractal it suggests a break out to the downside with a target below 3700. Both fractal and Diamond target confirm it.
2008 didn't repeat 1:1, but history tend to rhyme - and so it is doing right now.
VIX dropped lower than it should - very likely manipulation - but is holding a certain level - when I checked for any curve that could be adjusted to it - I noticed a small detail - 2021 fakeout.
2021 was the last push to the upside - the one that broke VIX trend - but now is...
DXY shows signs of strength around 103-104 - and SPX is in a downtrend again - Expecting a breakout of this descedning wedge and retest of top resistance.
This is the moves I am antincipating - Successfully shorted 4100 and now reopened a short at 3880. The markets are too afraid to risk a blow-off top move with a big recession ahead - so I'm expecting continuation until break of the downside.
So here is a fractal that was moving in a very similar way - from another timeframe so the scale of price movements are slightly off - but still the story is the same.
First we experience a double bear flag at a similar level - ended in a sell-off. That selloff turning back up and creating an illussion of a strong bounce - This get's silenced for a final selloff...
Hear me out on this.
Since we started falling in 2021 - On-chain data has been showing big retail buying together with whale sell-offs.
But since a few levels - 28k downward - Bigger accumulations have been happening (still with whale selloffs in the background).
This distribution got heavily mixed with accumulation and has landed on my 2021's prediction:...
Finally glosing that 4100 gap.
And from there I expect a big take-profits wave - If we cross 4100 and detach from the fractal - I will need to redo an analysis based on fundamentals and upcoming news results (PCE inflation, CPI, FOMC, NFP).
Cheers!
