lets talk about a broader turn around in technologytechnology has led the market down. semiconductors have led technology. this stock has exhibited particular rate of change and other bullish volume based oscillations. bil williams ma, vwma, ema, trama as well as displaced ma are also bullish along trend lines. this leads me to a swing vased strat for continuation following the concordant supports, resistances and resulting ghost feed. this goes for stock like NVDA, and the broader market too. i am selling as spx approached 4035-4037, and i am hedging on pullbacks in taiwan semiconductor by buying SOXS and scalping for a few pennies at a time. im long the broader market with TQQQ on breaks of resistance or support on daily higher lows.
Semiconductor
A Technical Analysis on Micron Technology I did a week ago This was an idea I did more than a week ago about Micron Technology .
So far so good. I think after that textbook double bottom we are in for testing the high and see whether it will act as a resistance or are we going for the 60-70$ level.
The fundamentals look okay, the company is heavily investing in R&D, so the outlook for 2023 is bright.
I would love to hear your thoughts. What do you think about the trade?
VOLUME FLOW: SEMI'S ($SMH) AGAINST THE BROADER MARKET ($SPY)VOLUME FLOW INDEX:
Both $SPY (broader market) and $SMH (semi-conductor industry) are currently in a neutral trend as measured by their 13 Day EMA envelope (top box). Both are also residing in similar places within their longer term downward trends. It is only when we take a look at volume as measured by the Volume Flow Index (VFI) that we can uncover some relative differences that could prove meaningful in the near term.
Volume has yet to breach zero line (white horizontal histogram) to the upside in broader market ($SPY, see left lower box).
Volume has breached the zero line in the semi-conductor sector($SMH, see lower right box), as illustrated by the yellow vertical line. This would indicate good 'force' behind the recent semi-conductor rally as measured by 'volume follow through' which I would consider a measure of 'conviction'.
This could be indicative of a near term preference for the semi's amidst an overall run to defensives in the broader market OR it could just be that semi's are a little bit stickier than the rest of 'growth' and still have some downside wood to chop. Given the semi's association with 'Growth' this divergent volume trend seemed counter-intuitive to the prevailing narrative so I thought I would share.
(Not financial advice)
MI Simple Chart AnalysisI bought back MI to trade for a positive CPI data ahead.
How to view the guidance via chart ( Refer back to pin message guidance if to trade )
Red Line = Support
Blue Line = Resistance
Light Blue = bullish/bearish pattern
Arrow = Double/Trip top/bottom
Red Chip = $$
Green Chip = XX
ON Semiconductor Corporation can provide further upside in 2023NASDAQ:ON was in a strong correlation with SP:SPX in the last years. To be accurate, the correlation was so strong between 2002 to 2021. However, since the beginning of this year, this correlation is not working anymore. In this bear market, the company has been providing price support and testing new high levels.
From a fundamental point of view, US needs to secure more domestic capability for semiconductor production. So, this company can provide more upside in the next year based on this new developing trend.
TSM | Oversold Semiconductor | LONGTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides complementary metal oxide silicon wafer fabrication processes to manufacture logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, and embedded memory semiconductors. The company also offers customer support, account management, and engineering services, as well as manufactures masks. Its products are used in mobile devices, high performance computing, automotive electronics, and internet of things markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
BESI in a bull flag.BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 53.22 (stop at 49.98)
Prices have reacted from 38.46.
Short term bias has turned positive.
Short term momentum is bullish.
53.02 has been pivotal.
A break of bespoke resistance at 53.00, and the move higher is already underway.
Our outlook is bullish.
Our profit targets will be 60.84 and 63.84
Resistance: 53.00 / 55.40 / 59.00
Support: 50.00 / 47.30 / 45.60
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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10/30/22 ONON Semiconductor Corporation ( NASDAQ:ON )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: 29.235B
Current Price: $67.48
Breakout price: $68.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $66.65-$59.00
Price Target: $86.90-$88.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 84-90d
Contract of Interest: $ON 1/20/23 70c
Trade price as of publish date: $6.30/contract
10/16/22 SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $173.15
Breakdown price (hold below): $173.40
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $185.00-$211.50
Price Target: $139.80-$134.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 60-64d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $SMH 12/16/22 165p
Trade price as of publish date: $8.95/contract
NVDA (Nvidia) - 4HR - Potential Bearish Momentum & ResistanceNVDA (Nvidia) stock price may have reached temporary resistance below $191.
Potential bearish momentum is forming on the MACD indicator as well (4-hour time frame)
Nvidia reports earnings on 08/24/22 post-market.
Resistance price targets: $191, $194, $200.
Support price targets: $185, $183, $180.
MU will test resistanceIn regards to comparing net income to market cap between the big semi-conductor teams, MU looks the best. TSM is awesome but if there's a war with China I don't want to deal with blockades while US semi-stocks sour out the sky after we subsidize when we lose Taiwan.
Test 70 resistance
Probably purchase 50-55 c calls deep in the money and sell 70-80 c calls and collect off the volatility
SOXL - An interesting proposition TAKENGiven a heads up from a friend some time ago, SOXL was closely tracked and position taken at 14.80 (white arrow).
There was immaculate synchrony on the weekly and daily charts, as it fell in a falling wedge. The weekly technical indicators turned as the weekly candlestick hinted of a possible trend change.
The daily technical indicators similar in sync and a break above the HULL moving average also coincided to a breakout of the wedge.
Looking for a move to 32. A very good amount of space, over the next couple of weeks.
Bottom in SOXL is in?Arguments pro a bullish scenario in $SOX / $SOXL:
We have reached the 78.6 % fib retracement in SOXL
According to the seasonal chart from the last ten years (see the SEASONAX screenshot at the top), in 9 of 10 cases the $SOX had made a bullish move from the 17th of May until the 8th of June
At some point, the semiconductor shortage must affect the prices ...
Contra arguments:
$DXY is rising / interest rates are going up
... anything else?
I can't see any significant arguments standing against the bullish case in $SOXL. If you have anything - please drop a comment below!
SOXL close to a strong supportSOXL tracks the performance of the thirty largest U.S. listed semiconductor companies.
The semiconductor space is still hot, but the companies in the leveraged Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) didn`t performed well against the inflation and raising interest rates recently.
I think SOXL is now close to the strong support of $21, pre-pandemic level, from which it can bounce to the $36 resistance.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
4/24/22 SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $234.73
Breakdown price (hold below): $237.35
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $241.85-$261.90
Price Target: $206.40-$204.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 67-72d
Contract of Interest: $SMH 6/17/22 200p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.35/contract
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) - Bullish Momentum at Support - 4HRAMD (Advanced Micro Devices) stock price has reached a Support zone above $100 for the fourth time this year.
Bullish momentum is also building in the MACD indicator.
Entry (long): $103.72
Take Profit +12% (exit): $116.24
Stop Loss -6% (exit): $97.43
Note: this chart setup could be overridden if the Nasdaq and major Tech Stocks pullback down this month.
Essentially, support price needs to hold above $100 for AMD stock to potentially rally up.
All content is Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
NVDA triple bottom on the 1hrNVDA with a massive triple bottom on the 1hr , also the last time the MACD was this low and about to cross we jumped from 210ish to 270 in 7 days.
Both RSI and Stoch are heavily oversold and are about to fly back to the upside. Assuming we are beginning to consolidate while using a fib ext we could see a bounce up to the 300 to 320 mark in the coming days, weeks, to say the least I am super bullish on NVDA right now. With ongoing semi conductor shortages clogging up the market I only see prices on things like gpus to rise, this will reflect very well on the balance sheet and will allow a lot more industry volume to funnel right into the hands of the giants like NVDA...
AVGO - Underrated titan in vulnerable spot
Three lower lows and lower highs ---
below VWMA (early) -
Decreasing volume --
Bearflag setup on daily ---
Good volume in the demand zone ++
IF market shows strengths next week, possible that it tests 625 zone, where it runs into big supply. Breakdown there could slide this to recent low near 500.
3/27/22 GFSGlobalFoundries Inc. ( NASDAQ:GFS )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $42.208B
Current Price: $78.94
Breakout Price (hold above): $77.05
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $74.35-$67.40
Price Target: $90.20-$91.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-43d
Contract of Interest: $GFS 5/20/22 80c
Trade price as of publish date: $7.80/contract
3/27/22 MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRVL )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $63.051B
Current Price: $74.37
Breakout Price: $75.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $71.80-$65.10
Price Target: $79.80-$80.80 (1st), $86.20-$88.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 30-32d (1st), 58-62d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $MRVL 4/14/22 75c, $MRVL 5/20/22 80c,
Trade price as of publish date: $2.80/contract, $3.05/contract
3/27/22 NVDANVDA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $695.069B
Current Price: $276.92
Breakout price: $283.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $261.80-$240.50
Price Target: $314.80-$316.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 54-62d
Contract of Interest: $NVDA 5/20/22 300c
Trade price as of publish date: $11.65/contract






















