Gold Update 04NOV2025: Wave 4 Dropped Into Target AreaGold futures dropped into the pink-box target area based on the Fibonacci retracement between $3,750 and $4,000.
As expected, the RSI has reached the 50 “waterline”, where it could find some support and start moving around that level.
Many traders lose money in fourth waves, as they can be “anything” and often last longer than one’s pocket. I’ve outlined a triangle shape in wave 4 just for visual context.
The range built through the peak of wave 3 around $4,400 and the bottom of recent panic selling near $3,900 will likely contain most of the volatility in wave 4.
It can take time… testing one’s patience.
Si1! (Silver Futures)
SI1! - Dancing on the SILVER Tracks🔱 I like risk. Specially when it's skewed to my favor 🔱
WL1 has been reached, and the market is wildly overextended.
Is it crazy to stand in front of this speeding train?
Absolutely — if you don’t know when to jump.
I’ve done my warm-up, and I’m ready to leap off the rails the moment it gets too close, too fast.
My move is with options — that means my risk is defined, my escape route mapped.
I would never short the underlying — not in a million years.
Now let’s see if this setup earns me that Steak & Lobster target.
SILVER made new ATH. Multi-year Bear Cycle starting.Last time we took a look at Silver (XAGUSD) (August 22, see chart below), we had a clear buy signal on its 1D MA50 at the bottom of the Channel Up, that quickly hit our 4050 Target:
The pattern even broke aggressively upwards and this week crossed the 49.9400 Resistance, which is the All Time High (ATH) from April 18 2011. Essentially that was also the High of the long forgotten January 1980 Top!
Needless to say, cyclical behavior indicates that this is where the market sells and starts new multi-year (2-3) Bear Cycles. The 1W RSI comes to confirm that, as it is only a few points off he 88.80 Resistance, which has been the ultimate sell signal since 1987.
We expect the market to decline to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 20.500, which is also where the first key Higher Lows trend-line (dashed) is.
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SILVER (XAGUSD): Strong For Weeks! Continue To Buy! It!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the XAGUSD (SILVER) for the week of Sept. 22 - 26th.
Silver has been strong for weeks. The industries continue strong demand from solar, electric vehicles and electronics. That, combined with supply constraints, continues to lend support to silver.
Bullish FVGs, bullish BOSs, and OLHC candles point to higher prices.
No reason to short this market.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Silver Trade Insights: Supply Levels, Seasonality and COTI have initiated a short position in silver as the price approaches a significant weekly supply zone. This entry was strategically determined based on an intra-day supply level identified on the daily chart. My outlook is primarily bearish, supported by seasonal patterns suggesting a potential downward trend. Additionally, non-commercial traders and institutional investors have been increasing their short positions, while retail traders continue to build long positions. I'm anticipating a possible trend reversal, but I also remain cautious of a retest of my designated supply area before any decisive move. As always, I recommend conducting thorough personal research before making any trading decisions.
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Silver = to the moon??? September 03, 2025Who’s Loading Up:
A top dog at Pan American Silver Corp., a heavyweight in North American silver digs, just scooped up a hefty chunk of shares.
Deal Size: This exec grabbed 50,000 shares at $22.50 a pop on August 28, 2025, dropping $1.125 million—talk about putting skin in the game!
Company Lowdown
Pan American Silver Corp. runs 10 mines across the Americas, packing 468 million ounces of silver and 6.7 million ounces of gold. Based out of Vancouver, they’ve got cash flowing like a river, fueling big bets like La Colorada Skarn and Escobal.
Sector Vibes:
• The Silver Institute’s calling for a fifth straight supply crunch in 2025, with photovoltaics and AI tech demand hitting all-time highs.
• Tariff threats, green energy boom, and a possible Fed rate cut in September 2025 could send silver soaring.
Big Funds Jumping In
Last quarter (June–August 2025), heavy hitters like Sprott Asset Management (+8% in Pan American), BlackRock Inc. (+5% in iShares Silver Trust), and Invesco Ltd. (+6% in VanEck Silver Miners ETF) piled into silver.
Buzz on X says Saudi Central Bank’s dipping its toes into silver via iShares Silver Trust (SLV), ditching its gold-only playbook.
London Vaults Drying Up
The LBMA’s silver stash is under siege from a supply deficit. With 150 million ounces short in 2024, the Silver Institute hints reserves might shrink 5–10% yearly if demand keeps raging, setting the stage for a price explosion.
1979 Boom & 2025–2026 Wild Cards
1979 Flashback: The Hunt Brothers’ silver grab, plus inflation and oil chaos, rocketed silver from $6 to $50/oz (+700%). Gold jumped from $300 to $850/oz on similar vibes.
2025–2026 Triggers:
Inflation’s sticky above 3%, the USD’s wobbling from tariffs, and a Fed cut looms in September 2025. Watch for U.S.-China trade wars, Middle East flare-ups, or a BRICS metals exchange—any could ignite a 1979-style silver rocket if deficits worsen.
Price Targets:
Short-Term (3 months): $60.00 (+46.9%)
Mid-Term (6–12 months): $120.00 (+193.7%)
Long-Term (18–24 months): $240.00 (+487.5%)
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XAGUSD Channel Up still valid, targeting $40.500.Silver (XAGUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the April 07 market bottom. Right now it is consolidating with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) acting as Support, following the recent 1-month pull-back.
We have seen the very same consolidation pattern after every Higher High, as also shown on the 1D RSI.
As long as it holds, this is a strong buy opportunity near the bottom of the Channel Up, targeting $40.50 based on the +11.90% rise that the previous Bullish Leg did.
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Silver Near $40: Deficits and Demand Fuel the RallySilver prices surged to multi-year highs in July 2025, driven by an extraordinary convergence of bullish factors, pushing prices above $39 per ounce, levels last seen in 2011.
Silver’s rally, supported by robust industrial demand and safe-haven inflows, aligns with traditional patterns as the U.S. dollar has weakened over 2.3% over the recent period.
Macroeconomic Drivers and the U.S. Dollar
Silver's rally is unfolding around shifting macro conditions. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at a restrictive 4.25-4.50% throughout 2025 due to persistently high inflation (2.7% YoY). However, expectations for more rate cuts are growing, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 59.8% probability of a cut at the September meeting as of July 28.
Adding to the complexity, U.S. trade policies have triggered significant market volatility and raised concerns over a potential supply shock. The U.S. administration has imposed steep 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico, set to resume on August 1. This has heightened fears, as Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer and supplies over half of U.S. silver imports.
But macro drivers aren’t the full story. The real force behind silver’s rally lies in the physical market itself. A structural supply deficit, escalating industrial demand, and growing investor appetite from Asia and North America, are proving to be far more pivotal than shifting rates or a softer dollar.
Physical Market Dislocation and Industrial Demand
The year 2025 marks the fifth consecutive year of a structural deficit in the global silver market, and the imbalance between supply and demand shows no sign of easing.
With minimal new mining capacity expected to come online and lengthy lead times for project development, supply constraints are structural rather than temporary.
Since 2021, the cumulative shortfall has reached nearly 800 million ounces (25,000 tons), steadily drawing down available inventories and tightening the market.
Industrial demand remains the central pillar of silver’s bull market. Forecasts for 2025 project record consumption of roughly 700 million ounces, driven by rapid adoption in green technologies and digital infrastructure. The electrical and electronics sector, which includes solar photovoltaics (PV), consumer electronics, automotive electronics, power grids, and 5G networks, has increased its silver usage by 51% since 2016.
Solar PV alone consumed approximately 197.6 million ounces in 2024, a record largely driven by China’s 45% expansion in solar capacity. With global EV production expected to approach 20 million units in 2025, automotive silver demand alone could exceed 90 million ounces.
Together, persistent deficits, accelerating industrial consumption, and capital flowing into physically backed investment vehicles are creating a market where available silver is increasingly scarce, amplifying upside pressure on prices regardless of short-term macroeconomic shifts.
COMEX silver inventories peaked at 504.72 million ounces on May 11 but have since eased back to levels last seen on April 24, indicating a recovery in demand following the large accumulation in US inventories post-tariff shock.
Positioning and Ratios Favour Gains
With net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, silver ETP investment has already surpassed the total for all of last year. By June 30, global silver ETP holdings reached 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below their highest level since the peak of 1.21 billion ounces in February 2021
Futures positioning has also surged , with long positions up 163% over six months. These factors have helped propel silver prices over 35% higher year-to-date, building on a 21% gain in 2024.
The iShares SLV ETF netted inflows of $1,467.5 million over the past 3 months.
Physical silver investment demand remains robust, with significant buying from Asian markets. India, the world’s leading silver importer, saw record purchases of physical bullion and silver-backed ETFs during the first six months of 2025.
The gold-to-silver ratio, currently in the late 80s, remains historically elevated, suggesting silver remains significantly undervalued compared to gold. This indicates substantial upside potential for silver, especially given persistent market deficits, rising industrial and investment demand, and gold rising at the same time.
Hypothetical Trade Set-up
The silver market’s bullish fundamentals appear increasingly robust. Investors may consider accumulating silver positions, viewing short-term consolidations as attractive buying opportunities amid the compelling long-term outlook.
Options open interest for the September contract shows a bullish bias with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and high call interest at the far out-of-the-money call strike of $45 per ounce.
To express a bullish view on silver, investors can deploy a long position in CME Silver futures expiring in September. A hypothetical trade setup for this view is described below.
● Entry: $38.00 per ounce
● Target 1: $40.00 per ounce
● Target 2 (extension): $42.00 per ounce (if Fed easing in September coincides with physical tightness)
● Stop Loss: $36.70 per ounce
● Profit at Target 1: $10,000
● Profit at Target 2: $20,000
● Loss at Stop: $6,500
● Reward-to-risk ratio: 1.54 (Target 1) and 3.08 (Target 2)
Alternatively, investors can exercise the same view using CME Micro Silver futures, which offer smaller notional positions and more flexibility. Each Micro contract is priced in USD per ounce and represents 1,000 ounces of silver, compared to 5,000 ounces for the standard contract.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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SI1!: Silver Demand Zone: Possible Bullish ContinuationI am currently observing a potential long-term continuation on SI1! Silver (XAG/USD), as the Commitment of Traders (COT) data indicates an increase in positions from both commercial and non-commercial traders. The price is approaching a demand zone on the daily chart, suggesting a possible bullish move.
The recent price action originated from an initial spike in the monthly supply zone, but there’s a possibility that the price could continue to rise further before reaching the next supply zone where a reversal might occur. Given the daily timeframe, I view this setup as suitable for a scalp trade. In my opinion, this presents an opportunity for short-term traders to capitalize on the potential upward movement.
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Silver: Daily Reversal Possible at Supply ZoneI'm anticipating a potential daily reversal in silver prices. Retail traders are maintaining a bullish stance, while commercial traders remain heavily short. The current price action suggests a possible reaction to a key supply area. What are your thoughts on the likelihood of a reversal, and what technical indicators might support or refute this potential shift?
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XAGUSD Strong accumulation waiting for a break-out. Silver (XAGUSD) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up pattern and since the June 18 Higher High, it has entered a Descending Triangle.
This has previous been an Accumulation pattern, which after broken to the upside, it led to June's High. Similarly, we expect a bullish break-out once the 4H RSI breaks above its MA, and as long as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we expect a +15.50% minimum rise (like the first Bullish Leg of the Channel Up), with our Target se at 40.500.
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What is Gold Silver Spread?What is gold silver spread? How to understand them to determine the market direction.
Reuters mentioned that the gold-silver ratio dropped from 105 to 94. What does this mean? Does it indicate that silver is about to trend higher, or is it a sign that gold will continue its trend?
Micro Silver Futures
Ticker: SIL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
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XAGUSD: Wait for a clear breakout to buy.Silver turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.038, MACD = 0.169, ADX = 26.102) but that alone isn't enough to turn us into buyers again just yet, as the Channel Up on the 4H timeframe has failed so far twice to break over the R1 level. If it does, then we will turn bullish, aiming for a +5.75% rise from the last 4H MA50 contact with TP = 34.4500.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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