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A case for silver.Silver is currently under significant regulatory constraints, and its prevailing market price does not incentivize the allocation of capital toward ventures focused on increasing its supply. This creates a supply constraint for the asset. Beyond its role as an inflation hedge, a characteristic shared by most commodities, silver possesses unique properties that are particularly valuable for industrial applications. As we stand on the brink of a new wave of industrial expansion, silver's conductivity and reflectivity make it indispensable in various technologies, such as solar panels (where China leads in production), antifreeze formulations, and numerous other applications. Recently, President Putin announced that Russia will include silver in its strategic reserves. Meanwhile, China has been engaging in confidential agreements with miners and refiners to secure prices over extended periods. Due to China's relatively loose regulatory framework, these transactions are not publicly disclosed, and as a result, they are not reflected in silver's market price. This can be said for African, Latin-American, or other Asian countries with loose regulation for these kinds of markets. Silver pricing predominantly occurs on the futures market, which underscores cases where a disconnect arises between market prices and underlying realities, leading to potential distortions in valuation. Case 1: JP Morgan commodities trading desk scandal. " A federal jury in the Northern District of Illinois convicted a former trader at JPMorgan Chase and Credit Suisse today of fraud in connection with a spoofing scheme in the gold and silver futures markets. According to court documents and evidence presented at trial, Christopher Jordan, 51, of Mountainside, New Jersey, was an executive director and trader on JPMorgan’s precious metals desk in New York from 2006 to 2009, and on Credit Suisse’s precious metals desk in New York in 2010. Between 2008 and 2010, Jordan placed thousands of spoof orders, i.e., orders that he intended to cancel before execution, to drive prices in a direction more favorable to orders he intended to execute on the opposite side of the market. Jordan engaged in this deceptive spoofing strategy while trading gold and silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX), which is a commodities exchange operated by the CME Group. These deceptive orders were intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for gold and silver futures contracts into the markets... Four other former JPMorgan precious metals traders were previously convicted in related cases. In August 2022, Gregg Smith and Michael Nowak... spoofing... In October 2018, John Edmonds pleaded guilty in the District of Connecticut... wire fraud, commodities fraud, price manipulation, and spoofing... In August 2019, Christian Trunz pleaded guilty in the Eastern District of New York to one count of conspiracy to engage in spoofing and one count of spoofing... " This is the article if you'd like to read more: www.justice.gov My thoughts; This type of practice is an example of how there always a disconnect with real life and markets. One must also remember how information travels and the infrastructure and systems in place that runs our financial system. I believe JP Morgan's swift settlement shows to me there was not much accountability addressed. Case 2: Silver Thursday, Hunts Brothers, 1970s " Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt — oil company executives, investors and brothers — first began purchasing silver in the early 1970s at a price of less than $2 per ounce. The Hunt brothers’ fervor for silver accelerated dramatically following the death of their father in 1974, a Texas oil tycoon known as H.L. Hunt. His passing released a $5 billion fortune to members of the Hunt family. Fueled by an enormous amount of capital, the Hunt brothers continued stockpiling silver and purchasing silver futures contracts. By early 1979, the price of silver had risen to about $6 per ounce. The Hunt brothers acquired roughly 195 million ounces of silver, about a third of the world’s total supply. They facilitated their silver purchases in part by investing in futures contracts through several brokers, including Bache Halsey Stuart Shields, Prudential-Bache Securities, and Prudential Securities. By December 1979, the market price for silver fluctuated between $20 and $25 per ounce. Silver had become exorbitantly expensive even for practical uses. Doctors struggled to afford X-ray film for patients, families melted down their heirloom silver flatware, silver burglaries skyrocketed, and Tiffany’s & Co. was forced to drastically raise its jewelry prices. Tiffany’s even took out a full-page ad in the New York Times criticizing the Hunt brothers, writing, “We think it is unconscionable for anyone to hoard several billion, yes billion, dollars’ worth of silver and thus drive the price up so high that others must pay artificially high prices for articles made of silver.” Silver reached a record high of $48.70 per ounce on Jan. 18, 1980. By some estimates, the Hunt brothers’ entire silver fortune peaked at a value of $10 billion. Thursday, March 27, 1980 Facing out-of-control silver prices, COMEX (Commodity Exchange, Inc.), a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), acted against the Hunt brothers. On Jan. 7, 1980, COMEX introduced Silver Rule 7, which placed heavy restrictions on the purchase of commodities on the margin. Following its peak price of $48.70 per ounce, silver began its decline and the Hunt family’s silver fortune began to shrink. On March 27, 1980, known as Silver Thursday, the price of silver dropped 50% in a single day, from $21.62 to $10.80 per ounce. The Hunt brothers failed to meet several margin calls and about $7 billion in paper assets suddenly turned into a $1.7 billion debt. The sudden price drop threatened to collapse several investment firms and banks. To prevent widespread financial chaos, multiple banks joined together to issue the Hunt brothers a $1.1 billion line of credit..." The original article: learn.apmex.com My thoughts: Now you see that one entity can have huge influence on the market. Your once dusty silver mirror can become valuable enough for you to go and find it and clean it and sell it. One actionable step you can take today is to capitalize on silver's current low valuation. There's clearly a lag between what's happening in the physical market and how that information gets reflected in exchange prices. Interestingly, we've seen noticeable price increases and premiums when buying physical silver, but there hasn’t been much movement in the more liquid instruments like the GLD or SLV ETFs—which, by the way, JPM vaults silver for. This disconnect exists because the market takes time to catch up to reality. What’s your take on this? More articles: marketsanity.com www.justice.gov www.reuters.com www.investing.com seekingalpha.com investingnews.com metalsedge.com www.moneymetals.com
COMEX:SI1!Long
by SRNceo
1
$XAG > $BTC? The 1980 "Curse" is Finally Broken.We just witnessed history. Stop scrolling and look at the chart. For 45 years, the $50 level was the "Graveyard of Bulls." 1980: The Hunt Brothers cornered the market, peaked at $50, and crashed. 2011: The retail mania hit $49 and collapsed. Today, that ceiling is gone. NASDAQ:XAG hasn't just "broken out"; it has shattered the most significant resistance level in modern financial history. We are trading at $58+, well into price discovery mode. The "No-BS" Reality: While CRYPTOCAP:BTC is fighting for its life to hold support during this liquidity crunch, Silver has done what "Digital Gold" promised to do but couldn't. CRYPTOCAP:BTC Status: Flushing leverage, correlating with tech stocks, and failing to act as a hedge. NASDAQ:XAG Status: Breaking a 45-year suppression cycle to become the #1 performing asset. The Setup (The Cup & Handle of the Century): This is a 45-year technical structure. The "Cup" started in 1980. The "Handle" ended this month. The Breakout: $50 is now the floor, not the ceiling. The Target: The measured move from the 1980 peak targets $85.89 - $89.15. My Outlook: The "Gold 2.0" narrative is being tested in real-time. Long NASDAQ:XAG : I am riding this breakout to the $89 target. The "Re-test" Buy: If we dip back to $50 (the 1980 High), that is a generational buying opportunity. Old resistance must become new support. Verdict: The "relic" just outperformed the "future." The 1980 curse is dead. 👇 Discussion: Is CRYPTOCAP:BTC failing its "Gold 2.0" audition, or is this just a temporary rotation before Crypto catches up to AMEX:SLV & AMEX:GLD Sectors ? Let me know your targets below.
TVC:SILVERLong
by AlphaRank
SLV long-term TASilver is going parabolic as well as gold, sure there are many who wonder when is the correction, and yet it's bullish on weekly time frame yes, but there's a negative divergence in the process on daily that started after the recent distribution, which means mid-term will correct eventually and you can't ignore the gap between the price and SMA50 on weekly which is getting huge, so you have to be prepared for the correction in the near future. In general, even after the correction it has plenty of cash flow on weekly trend yet and it will take time to absorb and distribute all the supply and likely the uptrend will continue through 2026.
AMEX:SLVLong
by MoxGo_Analytics
$SLV – Silver Breaking Out After 6 Weeks of ConsolidationAMEX:SLV – Silver Breaking Out After 6 Weeks of Consolidation Silver is finally making its massive breakout over the $50 level, and this move has been telegraphed for weeks by the underlying tape and the action in silver miners. 🔹 The Setup: After a huge run earlier this year, AMEX:SLV spent 6 straight weeks consolidating, tightening up right under the breakout level. Today we finally cracked $50, confirming the continuation pattern. Volume is surging and the structure is clean — classic breakout behavior after a long digestion phase. 🔹 Sector Confirmation: Silver stocks like NYSE:AG and NYSE:PAAS have already been breaking out — classic leadership behavior before the ETF follows. Gold ( AMEX:GLD ) is showing a similar pattern, adding even more confirmation to the metals trade. This is exactly the type of broad commodity breakout that produces multi-week trends. 🔹 My Trade Plan: 1️⃣ Options: I’m in the $50 January calls — great way to capture the continuation move with defined risk. 2️⃣ ETF Leverage: Added AGQ shares premarket, especially since CME data was glitchy this morning. 3️⃣ Targets: Riding this as a trend trade — strong metals breakouts can run far longer than expected. Why I Love This Setup: Long consolidation + major breakout level = explosive potential. Sector leaders already ran — AMEX:SLV is now confirming the theme. Macro tailwinds (inflation, deficit spending, dollar weakness) all line up perfectly. The metals trade is alive — and silver is just getting started.
AMEX:SLVLong
by kunal00
Silver’s Cup & Handle Breakout – Road to $60+ Silver has completed a textbook cup and handle formation and is breaking above the key resistance level at $54. The pattern shows a rounded bottom (cup) formed between $46-$54, followed by a consolidation handle, with price now surging toward new highs at $56.5 Technical Setup: • Cup depth: Approximately $8 (from $46 low to $54 resistance) • Breakout level: $54.00 • Price target calculation: $54 + $8 = $62.00+ With momentum like this, the technical target comes in around $62 ​ As long as silver stays above old resistance ($54–$55), bulls are in the driver’s seat. Risk Management: Consider stops below the handle low around $50 to protect against false breakouts. This setup aligns with broader precious metals strength and represents a continuation pattern following silver's major 2025 rally.
TVC:SILVERLong
by tfouad2020
5
Gold or Silver?Right now: SILVER! I know, I know! Crazy schitt! Don't look at me! The chart’s telling the story — Silver hasn’t even really started its move yet. Don’t blame me, I’m just reading the data. Silver is up 87% year-over-year and outperforming gold by 11%, which is still on the low end historically. That suggests Silver either has room to run from here, or it’s simply the safer relative play versus gold on a risk-adjusted basis. If you’ve got space in your portfolio, it’s a reasonable addition. If it hits nose-bleed levels, we reassess. THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by RealMacro
10
Silver (SLV): Multi-Year Cup & Handle SetupSilver appears to be repeating the same large-scale institutional “Cup and Handle” structure that played out almost perfectly on Gold. The difference is that in SLV (iShares Silver Trust), the chart history is shorter, so the full formation is not as clearly visible — but if we reference the historical silver chart (since 1802), the pattern becomes unmistakable. That long-term chart shows a massive multi-decade rounded base — the cup — and now price has already touched the upper boundary, effectively activating the pattern. 🧠 Technical Context On the long-term silver chart, the handle represents the multi-year consolidation we’ve seen since the 2011 peak. In SLV, this structure is compressed, but the correlation with physical silver remains ~99%, since the fund is backed by over 90% physical silver holdings. This makes SLV an ideal instrument for expressing long-term silver exposure — it tracks spot silver almost tick-for-tick, while providing the liquidity and accessibility of an ETF. Technically, silver has already tested the upper rim of the cup, confirming that the pattern is active. This breakout will likely be followed by a short-term consolidation (the final part of the handle) before the market enters what could become a multi-year rally phase. Based on historical fractals and volume structure, the first major pullback is expected toward the $35–25 zone, which corresponds to the previous 4th-wave cluster — a classic accumulation area in Elliott terms. I’ll be looking to accumulate aggressively in the $35–30 range, scaling in gradually as price approaches those levels. 🎯 Trade Plan Instrument: SLV (iShares Silver Trust ETF) Correlation to Spot Silver: ~99% Primary Support Zone (Accumulation): $25 – $35 Handle Breakout Level: around $50 Long-Term Target: $800+ (silver spot equivalent) Stop-Loss: per individual risk management Time Horizon: 5+ years Once silver completes its consolidation and breaks above $50, the measured move of the Cup and Handle suggests a multi-hundred percent rally that could unfold over the next decade. The breakout will likely be accompanied by rising institutional volume and strong follow-through momentum. 🧭 Strategic View I trade silver exclusively through SLV, as it offers the most direct and reliable exposure to the underlying metal. The fund’s near-perfect correlation with spot silver makes it ideal for implementing long-term accumulation strategies without the operational complexities of futures or CFDs. This will be one of my core positions for the coming decade. After the expected correction into the $30–35 range, I plan to build a large position, possibly hedged later on, and hold through the full bullish cycle. Silver’s technical structure, macro fundamentals, and historical analogs all point toward a potential generational rally once this base completes. This is the setup I’m positioning for — patiently, systematically, and with conviction. Summary Long-term “Cup and Handle” formation now confirmed Final correction expected before the next secular rally SLV offers near-1:1 tracking with physical silver Accumulation zone: $35–25 Target: $800+ over the next decade
AMEX:SLVLong
by sdk-trading
3
S&P Stalls, Gold & Silver Reality Check, US vs China WatchGold and Silver finally correcting - and I'm dollar cost averaging into dips US Indexes (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell) stalling just off of all-time highs Sideways is a behavior and it might seem boring, but it's certainly better than the market rolling over and falling hard for 5-10% corrections (TBD) AI Narrative remains optimistic -I like the utilities, energy, and physical goods side of AI over software and hype Financials and CAPEX spending remains firm -money continues to flow into this AI buildout Trump vs China is likely noise and eventual concessions and agreements are likely the outcome - but the market is waiting for proof for now US CPI data hitting Friday (first real US news in weeks) - does the market react? Watch for broadening pattern and fakeouts, but the big tell with this market pushing for more upside is the massive drop in VIX last week and once again flirting with all-time highs Thanks for watching!!! -Chris
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
Grand Silver SupercycleI present the Grand Silver Supercycle. Silver has followed Elliott Wave Theory nicely through the years. The price hit a century low during The Great Depression, beginning what I believe to be the first wave of a supercycle. There is a clear five wave pattern up from this low, peaking in 1980. This is supercycle wave 1. Then, we see a five wave corrective pattern down, bottoming out in the early 90s. Alternatively, a three wave ABC pattern could be drawn. This is where supercycle wave 3 begins. Wave 3 is typically much more prominent than wave 1 in Elliott Wave Theory. For this reason, it makes sense that the next five wave pattern ending in 2011 is only the first subwave of supercycle wave 3. The second subwave corrected to the 2020 low, and we are currently on the third subwave. Within this subwave, we could either be starting a third wave (as shown in the chart) or still be on the corrective second wave. I believe the former is much more likely due to fundamentals. Price targets within the current subwave were estimated as follows: wave 3 length = 1.618 X wave 1 wave 3 target = $48 wave 4 length = 38.2% retracement of wave 3 wave 5 length = 1.618 X (wave 3 end - wave 1 start) I'm more confident on wave 3 ending near $48 than I am of wave 5 ending near $95. There is strong resistance at $50, which coincides with the Elliott target zone. Wave 5 length can vary significantly. For silver at least, fifth waves have traditionally been long ones. Fundamentals Elliott Wave Theory is only a tool. It needs to be backed up by fundamentals when forecasting on long time frames. Silver is undervalued due to many years of supply outstripping demand, creating cheap prices. That is in the early stages of changing as now demand outpaces supply. Global silver demand was expected to hit an all time high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022 (www.silverinstitute.org). This is largely due to increases in demand in both industry (Green Revolution) and personal investment (stackers hedging against inflation). Silver reserves currently stand at 530,000 metric tons (www.statista.com). The current demand is 38,000 metric tons per year. A simple calculation shows existing reserves could be depleted in 14 years. However, this calculation doesn't take into account new discoveries and recycling, which have so far kept pace with demand. Estimates of time to depletion of reserves vary wildly from a couple decades to a few centuries. At the moment, the prime driver of price (in addition to inflation) will be the deficit, not depletion of reserves. Inflation is a totally different animal that is much harder to forecast long term due to its close relationship to government and Federal Reserve policy. It is more likely that when presented the choice, our leaders choose high inflation over debt default and depression. How this all is going to play out is anyone's guess. It seems for now our leaders are trying to kick the can down the road for as long as possible. If hyperinflation hits, the silver price will reach extraordinary heights.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Cryptogold14
1
100% UPSIDE Precious Metals Playbook — Gold, Silver & Miners ETF🏛️ Precious Metals Playbook — Gold, Silver & Miners ETFs 🔑 Executive Summary • We combine the 2026 parabolic metals thesis gold/silver/platinum with leveraged ETF implementation to target triple-digit portfolio upside under view that gold’s bull run continues into 2026 $5,500–$6,500/oz. • Miners’ torque has been massive in 2025: GDX ~+123% YTD while gold itself is up ~51% YTD; levered miners e.g., NUGT, JNUG, GDXU show ~360–700%+ YTD — confirming high beta to metal. • Implementation below caps any single ETF at 10% within 10–20% limit and keeps ≥50% of the book in 2×–3× products for upside torque while diversifying across metal vs. miners and gold vs. silver. ________________________________________ 🌍 Market View Condensed • Gold: Momentum + macro easing bias, softer USD, central-bank demand support the “second-leg melt-up” case into 2026; miners’ margin torque can deliver 2–3× metal beta. • Silver: Structural deficits + PV/EV/datacenter demand have super-charged silver miners in 2025. ________________________________________ 📊 2025 YTD Scorecard Key ETFs • Gold metal (unlevered): GLD +50.9% YTD. • Gold miners (unlevered): GDX ~+123% YTD. • Silver miners (unlevered): SIL ~+137% YTD. • Leveraged miners: o NUGT (2× miners) ~+361% YTD; JNUG (2× juniors) ~+394% YTD. o GDXU (3× miners ETN) ~+706% YTD (top performer cohort of 2025). • Leveraged gold & silver metals: UGL (2× gold) ~+125% YTD; DGP (2× gold ETN) ~+123% YTD; AGQ (2× silver) ~+159% YTD. ________________________________________ 🧩 Portfolio Construction Target book: $100,000 Constraints honored: max 10% per ETF, ≥50% allocation to 2×/3× ETFs. 🎯 Target Allocation 60% leveraged / 40% unlevered Leveraged — 60% total • 10% GDXU 3× gold miners ETN • 10% NUGT 2× gold miners • 10% JNUG 2× junior gold miners • 10% AGQ 2× silver • 10% UGL 2× gold • 10% DGP 2× gold ETN Rationale: diversify torque across miners vs. metals, 2× vs. 3×, and gold vs. silver to avoid single-product concentration risk. Unlevered — 40% total • 10% GDX VanEck Gold Miners • 10% GLD SPDR Gold Trust • 10% SIL Global X Silver Miners • 10% SLV (or) IAU silver or gold bullion, choose per preference Rationale: ballast and liquidity; preserves exposure if volatility in levered products forces risk-off. Dollar mapping (@ $100k): • Each 10% line = $10,000 notional; 10 tickers → $100,000 fully invested. ________________________________________ 📈 Scenario Analysis Hypothetical, path-dependent Gold advances toward $5,500–$6,500 by 2026. We translate that into rough upside bands using historical betas and allowing for daily-reset drag on leveraged products. • Base case +100% portfolio: o Gold +40–60% from here; 2× gold funds net ~+70–110% conservative for compounding/decay. o GDX sensitivity ~2–3× metal → ~+80–150%; 2× miners ~+160–300%; 3× miners can overshoot in trending tapes. o With 60% in levered assets and 40% in unlevered miners/metals, blended outcome can land near ~+100% if trends persist and volatility stays manageable. • Stretch case +200% portfolio: o If the “second-leg melt-up” plays out momentum + flows + central-bank bid and miners’ margins expand, levered miners dominate returns similar to 2025 YTD pattern. o Portfolio hits ~+200% if miners continue to over-beta the metal and 3× exposure compounds favorably no major whipsaws. Risk reality check: Leveraged ETFs reset daily; high volatility or choppy reversals can erode returns even if the long-term trend is up. Position sizing 10% lines and diversification across instruments help mitigate single-name decay risk. ________________________________________ 🧭 Implementation Notes • Execution: stage entries over several days reduce gap/vol risk, prioritize liquid hours; use stop-loss/hedge bands on the 3× sleeve. • Rebalancing: monthly bands ±3–5% per line to defend the 60/40 torque mix. • Risk budget: expect 3× ETN drawdowns >60% in sharp pullbacks; keep dry powder OR pre-define risk limits. ________________________________________ 🗂️ Product Appendix — Quick Stats • GDXU (3× miners ETN): ~+706% YTD; ER ~0.95%. • NUGT (2× miners): ~+361% YTD. • JNUG (2× junior miners): ~+394% YTD. • AGQ (2× silver): ~+159% YTD. • UGL (2× gold): ~+125% YTD. • DGP (2× gold ETN): ~+123% YTD. • GDX (miners): ~+123% YTD. • SIL (silver miners): ~+137% YTD. • GLD (gold): ~+50.9% YTD. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Disclosures & Risks Leveraged ETFs/ETNs are short-term trading tools with daily reset/compounding; they can significantly underperform their leverage multiple over holding periods with high volatility or mean-reversion. ETNs (e.g., GDXU, DGP) also carry issuer credit risk. This memo is informational, not investment advice; consider your risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and tax/ETN suitability.
AMEX:GDXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
22
Gold Bull Markets Long Term Overview and 2025 Market UpdateGold Bull Markets Long Term Overview and 2025 Market Update ________________________________________ • This cycle is different: record central-bank buying + renewed ETF inflows + lower real rates = powerful tailwind. • Price: Gold notched fresh ATHs this month (up to $3,790.82). 2025 is shaping up as the strongest year since the late 1970s. • Relative: Gold is crushing equities YTD (≈+40% vs S&P 500 ≈+13% total return). • Setup: A 13-year “cup-and-handle” breakout in 2024 kick-started the move. • Outlook: Base case from the Street: $3,700 by end-’25 and ~$4,000 by mid-’26; upside to $4,500 if flows accelerate. ________________________________________ 🏆 Historic Gold Bull Markets — Timeline & Stats 1) 1968–1980 “Super Bull” • Start/End: ~$35 → $850 (Jan 1980) • Gain: ~2,330% • Drivers: End of Bretton Woods, oil shocks, double-digit inflation, geopolitical stress. • Drawdown: ~–45% (1974–1976) before the final blow-off run. 2) 1999–2011/12 • Start/Peak: ~$252 (1999) → ~$1,920 (2011–12) • Gain: ~650% • Drivers: Commodities supercycle, EM demand, USD weakness, GFC safe-haven bid. 3) 2016/2018–Present (The “CB-Led” Cycle) • Start Zone: $1,050–$1,200 → New ATH $3,790 (Sep 2025) • Gain: ~215–260% (depending on 2016 vs 2018 anchor) • Drivers: Record central-bank accumulation, sticky inflation/low real rates, geopolitics; 2024 13-yr base breakout. ________________________________________ 📊 At-A-Glance Comparison (Updated 2025) Metric 1968–80 Super Bull 1999–2012 2016/18–2025 Current 🚀 Total Gain ~2,330% ~650% ~215–260% (so far) ⏲️ Duration 12 yrs 13 yrs 7–9 yrs (ongoing) 💔 Max Drawdown ~–45% (’74–’76) ~–30% (’08) ~–20% (2022) 🏦 Main Buyer Retail/Europe Funds/EM Central Banks (dominant) 🏛️ Pattern Secular parabolic Cyclical ramps 13-yr base → breakout (’24) Notes: current cycle characteristics validated by WGC demand trends & technical breakout in Mar 2024. ________________________________________ 📈 Top 10 Stats of the Current Bull (2025) 1. Price & ATHs: Spot $3,75–$3,79k; fresh ATH $3,790.82 on Sep 23, 2025. 2. 2025 YTD: Roughly +40–43% YTD (best since the late ’70s). 3. Central Banks: 1,045 t added in 2024 (3rd straight 1k+ year). H1’25 ≈ 415 t (still elevated). 4. ETF Flows: Strongest half-year inflows since 2020, aiding the surge. 5. Gold vs Equities: Gold ≈+40% vs S&P 500 ≈+13% total return YTD. 6. Jewelry Demand: Price strength is crimping tonnage (2024 down ~11%; Q2’25 –14% y/y), even as value hits records. 7. Gold–Silver Ratio: Now around ~85–88 (silver catching up as it pushes $43–$44). 8. Macro Link: Strong safe-haven bid + rate-cut hopes supporting new highs. 9. Technical: Confirmed cup-and-handle breakout (Mar ’24) underpinning trend. 10. Street Forecasts: DB lifts 2026 to $4,000; GS baseline $4,000 by mid-’26, upside $4,500 with bigger private-investor rotation. ________________________________________ 🔄 What Makes This Bull Different (2025 Edition) • 🏦 Central-Bank Dominance — Official sector is the anchor buyer (3rd straight 1k+ tonne year in 2024; 2025 tracking strong despite Q2 deceleration). • ⚡ Faster Recoveries — Pullbacks have been shallower and shorter vs the 1970s analog. • 📈 Coexisting With Risk Assets — Rare combo: gold ATHs with equities up YTD suggests a macro hedge bid alongside optimism in select risk assets. • 📐 Structural Breakout — The 13-year base cleared in 2024 set multi-year targets. ________________________________________ 🎯 Strategy Ideas (2025 & Beyond) Core • Buy/Hold on Dips: Stagger entries (DCA) into physical (allocated), ETFs (e.g., GLD/IAU), and quality miners/royalties. • Prefer Physical/Allocated where counterparty risk matters; use ETFs for liquidity. Satellite/Leverage • Silver & GSR Mean-Reversion: With the GSR ~85–88, silver historically offers torque in up-legs. Pair with high-quality silver miners. • Factor Tilt in Miners: Focus on low AISC, strong balance sheets, growing reserves, and jurisdictions with rule-of-law. Risk-Management • Define max drawdown tolerance per sleeve; pre-plan trims near parabolic extensions or if macro invalidates (e.g., real-yield spike). ________________________________________ 🧪 Reality Check: What Could Invalidate the Bull? • Real yields + USD rip higher (sustained), dampening non-yielding assets. • Sharp halt in official-sector buying (e.g., policy shifts). • Rapid growth re-acceleration reducing safe-haven & rate-cut expectations. ________________________________________ 🧭 Quick Reference Tables 🧾 Summary: Historic vs Current Feature 1968–80 1999–2012 2016/18–2025 Total Gain ~2,330% ~650% ~215–260% Duration 12 yrs 13 yrs 7–9 yrs (ongoing) Correction ~–45% ~–30% ~–20% (’22) Main Buyer Retail/Europe Funds/EM Central Banks Pattern Parabolic Cyclical Cup & Handle → Secular 🧩 “If-This-Then-That” Playbook • If real yields fall & CB buying persists → Ride trend / add on consolidations. • If USD + real yields jump → Trim beta, keep core hedge. • If GSR stays >80 with silver momentum → Overweight silver sleeve for torque. ________________________________________ 🧠 Outside-the-Box Adds 💼 Role in a Portfolio (example frameworks) • Resilience sleeve (5–10%): Physical + broad ETF. • Offense sleeve (2–5%): Quality miners/royalties; optional silver tilt. • Tactical (0–3%): Trend-following overlay (breakouts/consolidations). 🧭 Decision Checkpoints (quarterly) • Central-bank net purchases (WGC). • ETF flows (Western markets). • Real yields (10y TIPS), USD trend, and GSR. ________________________________________ 🔚 Key Takeaways (Updated) • Relentless official-sector demand + technical breakout are the twin pillars of this cycle. • Macro mix (policy easing expectations, geopolitics, diversification from USD reserves) supports an extended run. • Base case: Street sees $3.7k by end-’25 and ~$4k by mid-’26, with upside to $4.5k if private capital rotation accelerates. Manage risk; embrace volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
87
All That Glitters Is Not Gold (But Silver?)And another long Idea - this time in the Silver ETF, SLV. Looking at the daily chart for SLV, a couple of things standout from a few days ago; - The price just broke the all-time high at 31.80, along with significant resistance at ~31.50, and - SLV gapped up, leaving tight stops a bit problematic. As I've said before in this instance I do two things; 1. Wait for a pullback (which we're now seeing?), and 2. Switch to the commodity futures chart (emphasis - I'm not trading the future, just taking a look) Using the July Silver contract on the CME; We can see the breakout, and now the retest(s), of two critical highs from the last few months. Switching down '1' interval, to the 4-hour chart; We can see 3-4 retests of those old highs, which now may be acting as support. I've drawn in a short-term trendline and resistance. A cross of that trendline and a close above 36.260 should provide a good entry point. A stop could then be placed at 35.00 (with a close below that on the 4-hour), just below this recent turmoil. As for targets, this scenario has SLV making new all-time highs - best to just trail and let SLV tell you where to exit. All that glitters.. My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
AMEX:SLVLong
by TheUncertainTrader
1
PAAS – High Tight Flag with Silver TailwindsPan American Silver ( NYSE:PAAS ) is forming a high tight flag — one of the most explosive continuation patterns — just as silver starts heating up. 🔹 High Tight Flag Formation NYSE:PAAS ripped with momentum and is now consolidating in a tight, bullish range. This is exactly what you want to see — shallow pullback, tight candles, and holding near highs. 🔹 Sector Momentum: Silver Heating Up AMEX:SLV and /SI are pushing toward multi-year breakout levels. NYSE:PAAS is riding that same energy, and any continuation in silver could ignite this setup. My Trade Plan: 1️⃣ Starter Position: Looking to enter on strength through the top of the flag. 2️⃣ Add on Confirmation: Add size on volume surge and breakout follow-through. 3️⃣ Stop Loss: Below flag base — keeping it tight and defined. Why I Love This Setup: High tight flags are low-risk, high-reward when paired with macro momentum. Silver is gaining strength — NYSE:PAAS could lead the miner group if this breaks clean. Strong structure, clean risk, macro fuel = great setup.
NYSE:PAASLong
by kunal00