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Smartmoneyconcept

Silver Bearish Continuation — Targeting Major Support ZonesFX:XAGUSD Price is showing a rejection off a key resistance zone (higher timeframe sell-side). Pullback + trendline confluence suggests bearish continuation bias. Fib / structure levels are marked to scale logical entry / target zones. Setup appears planar with defined stop & targets — high probability short. This is a classic supply rejection → retest → continuation sequence Bias Bearish (short-side) Price is respecting lower highs and failing to break above the recent supply zone. Trade Plan Entry Sell Zone: Around recent rejection / trendline retest ► e.g., Entry ~ 76 to 78 (example range — adjust to your chart exacts) (Trade is only valid if price retests the rejected zone and fails again.) 🛑 Stop-Loss Above key resistance + invalidation candle ► e.g., Stop ~ 84.35 No trade unless price respects this structure. Targets Target 1 (T1): ► ~ 67 — first structure support / demand zone Target 2 (T2): ► ~ 60 — deeper support + fib extension Optional T3: ► ~ 57 if bearish momentum accelerates (Exact numbers depend on your timeframe — adjust to precise levels from your chart.) Risk Management ✔ Move stop to break-even after T1 hit ✔ Partial profits at T1 / T2 ✔ Only take setup if retest is clean (weak retest candles)
FX:XAGUSDShort
by Amelia007
Gold Price Prediction: Order Block Breakout Toward 5150Gold – H1 Timeframe Buy Analysis On the H1 timeframe, Gold first formed a Bullish BOS (Break of Structure) and showed buy-side rejection. After that, a bearish trendline pushed the price downward, creating a Bearish BOS, where sellers also faced rejection. Price then formed a CHOCH (Change of Character) and started moving upward with a short-term bullish trendline. Now, Gold has broken the bearish trendline, which is a sign of bullish momentum. Gold price has also broken the FRVP POC level. If the price sustains above this level, it can act as support, increasing the probability of bullish continuation. Key Levels: Order Block: 5015 Target: 5150 Stop Loss: 4925 (below both the bullish and bearish trendlines) Trade Plan: If an H1 candle closes above the 5015 order block, there is a strong probability that Gold may move toward 5150. If the POC level holds as support, the setup will become even stronger. Bias: Bullish above 5015 Invalidation: Close below 4925 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, so always do your own research and manage risk properly before taking any trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Markovic_VascoView
GBPAUD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table is giving us a clear signal: we have a -7 differential, pointing toward a BEARISH (STRONG) bias that we simply can't ignore. 🏦 Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: GBP rates are at 3.75% while AUD is at 3.6%; both are relatively high, but the policy direction differs. Score GBP: +1 | Score AUD: +1 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: GBP is in Expansion/Goldilocks while AUD is in a Reflation regime with accelerating inflation. Score GBP: +1 | Score AUD: +2 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: BoE is dovish following a post-cut pause, while RBA remains the only hawkish central bank in active tightening (+25bp expected). Score GBP: -1 | Score AUD: +1 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Both currencies currently show a neutral regime without a specific cyclical bias. Score GBP: 0 | Score AUD: 0 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: GBP shows bearish positioning with accelerating sales, while AUD is seeing strong long accumulation and momentum. Score GBP: -1 | Score AUD: +2 Currency Score Summary: Total Score GBP: 0 (Neutral) Total Score AUD: +7 (Strong Bullish) Synthesis: 💡 GBP (Weak, Score 0): Penalized by a dovish BoE stance and negative GDP surprise (0.1% vs 0.2% forecast). 💡 AUD (Strong, Score +7): Driven by active tightening, robust growth, and a 100% COT Index favoring longs. Conclusion: Given this fundamental backdrop, we are strictly looking for Short setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide. 🚫 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 15m | Pair: GBPAUD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator has confirmed our statistical edge. Here’s the probabilistic data from the dashboard: 🚀 Continuation Rate (68.8%): We are currently above the 60% threshold. This confirms a healthy directional trend where continuation has a much higher probability than a reversal. 🔥 Streak Analysis (0): We are currently on impulse number 0 as we look for the next leg. Expected Streak: 2 | 2 | 4 Remaining Moves: This indicates a young trend with significant room for the move to develop. 🔄 Retest & Reaction: Retest Prob (70%): High probability of the price returning to test the supply zone after a BOS. BOS/Ret Rate (67.3%): Once inside the zone, there is a strong probability of a bearish reaction leading to a new BOS. 🎯 Extension & Projection: Extension Range: The expected extension for this single leg is between 1.54x and 3.22x (Expected: 1.88x). Compound Extension (2.74x): This is the total projected move based on the remaining expected impulses. 3. Execution Plan on Chart 🎯 Moving over to the charts, we are using these statistics to define our operational levels: 📍 Entry and Stop Loss: We are placing a limit entry within the Supply Zone 15m (Red Band) . The stop loss is tucked a few pips outside the zone to protect against structural invalidation. 🏁 Statistical Take Profit: Instead of an arbitrary target, we are leveraging the Compound Extension . We project the target at 2.74x relative to the pullback zone height. This allows us to capture the full extension projected by the algorithm. 🏆 Trade Parameters: 💰 Entry Price: 1.92928 🛡️ Stop Loss: 1.93197 🏆 Take Profit: 1.91411 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Short
by MBARRECA
EURJPY:Head and Shoulders Breakdown, Bearish ContinuationEURJPY has formed a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern on the H4 timeframe, with a confirmed neckline break around the 181.0-181.2 area, signaling a shift in short-term structure toward the downside. Following the breakdown, price moved below key moving averages, and the current bounce appears to be a technical retest of the neckline region. This zone also aligns with the 0.705-0.79 Fibonacci retracement area, increasing the probability of continued bearish momentum. The main scenario favors further downside toward 178.4, with extended targets near the 176.7-176.5 support zone, which represents a stronger higher-timeframe level. As long as price remains below 182.1-182.3, sellers maintain control. The alternative scenario would activate if price reclaims and holds above 182.3, invalidating the pattern and reopening the path toward 183.5-185.0. This is not investment advice. Trading decisions should be based on confirmed structure and price reaction.
Short
by InvestWorld_777
AUD-USD Local Short! Sell! Hello,Traders! AUDUSD sharp rejection from 2H horizontal supply confirms bearish order flow. Liquidity grab above range completed, price trading back in discount. Expect continuation toward sell-side liquidity at target.Time Frame 2H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
EUR-USD Free Signal! Buy! Hello,Traders! EURUSD mitigated 6H demand and filled FVG in discount, forming bullish reaction. Liquidity sweep below range completed, expecting continuation toward premium imbalance and prior highs. -------------------- Stop Loss: 1.1831 Take Profit: 1.1910 Entry: 1.1863 Time Frame: 6H -------------------- Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
USD-CAD Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! USDCAD clear rejection from 3H horizontal supply with internal liquidity sweep and bearish shift in structure. Premium zone mitigation complete, expecting continuation toward discount imbalance and sell-side liquidity below. -------------------- Stop Loss: 1.3639 Take Profit: 1.3577 Entry: 1.3613 Time Frame: 3H -------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
AUD/CHF Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table is giving us a clear signal: we have a +7 differential, pointing toward a Strong Bullish bias that we simply can't ignore. 🏦 Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: RBA at 3.6% offers an attractive carry trade level compared to the SNB's 0.0%, which is the lowest in the G7. Score AUD: +1 | Score CHF: -1 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: AUD is in a strong reflationary phase with accelerating inflation (+0.79%), while CHF shows weak reflation with only moderate inflation increases. Score AUD: +2 | Score CHF: +1 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: RBA remains hawkish with a recent +25bp hike and active tightening trend; SNB is neutral, holding rates steady since September. Score AUD: +1 | Score CHF: 0 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Market sentiment is currently neutral for both currencies with no specific bias. Score AUD: 0 | Score CHF: 0 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: Speculators are heavily long on AUD with accelerating purchases; CHF shows strong shorts despite some recent buying. Score AUD: +2 | Score CHF: 0 Currency Score Summary: Total Score AUD: +7 (Strong Bullish) Total Score CHF: 0 (Neutral) Synthesis: 💡 AUD (Strong, Score +7): Hawkish RBA, solid GDP (2.3%), and booming services PMI (56.3) drive strong demand. 💡 CHF (Neutral, Score 0): Despite a manufacturing rebound, 0% rates and slight deflation keep the franc under pressure. Conclusion: Given this fundamental backdrop, we are strictly looking for Long setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide. 🚫 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 15m | Pair: AUD/CHF The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator has confirmed our statistical edge. Here’s the probabilistic data from the dashboard: 🚀 Continuation Rate (65.4%): We are currently above the 60% threshold. This confirms a healthy directional trend where continuation has a much higher probability than a reversal. 🔥 Streak Analysis (1): We are currently on impulse number 1. Expected Streak: 1 | 2 | 4 (Percentile: 20th-80th) Remaining Moves: This indicates a Young trend. The statistical range suggests we are at the beginning of a potential multi-impulse expansion. 🔄 Retest & Reaction: Retest Prob (80.8%): The probability of the price returning to test the zone after a BOS is very high. BOS/Ret Rate (65%): Once inside the zone, this is the probability of a positive reaction leading to a new BOS. 🎯 Extension & Projection: Extension Range: The expected extension for this single leg is between 1.48x and 2.42x (Expected: 1.68x). Compound Extension (1.68x): This is the total projected move based on the remaining expected impulses. 3. Execution Plan on Chart 🎯 Moving over to the charts, we are using these statistics to define our operational levels: 📍 Entry and Stop Loss: We are placing a limit entry within the Demand Zone 15m (Blue Band) . The stop loss is tucked a few pips outside the zone to protect against structural invalidation. 🏁 Statistical Take Profit: Instead of an arbitrary target, we are leveraging the Compound Extension . We project the target at 1.68x relative to the pullback zone height. This allows us to capture the full extension projected by the algorithm. 🏆 Trade Parameters: 💰 Entry Price: 0.54248 🛡️ Stop Loss: 0.53949 🏆 Take Profit: 0.55620 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Long
by MBARRECA
2
GBPNZD | Final Rally 2.46+ Before CollapseGBPNZD | The Final Push Before the Crash 🌋 | Wave (5) Climax in Motion! 🔍 Quick Outlook GBPNZD is unfolding its micro wave (5) of C , the final stretch of the b wave of the Supercycle . Momentum is fading, Smart Money is positioning, and a major reversal is brewing. ⚡ After a minor correction near 2.25 – 2.21, a last push higher is expected toward 2.46 + , aligning with the 1.618 Fib extension and the buy-side liquidity zone . Once liquidity is taken, price may enter a multi-year bearish Wave C , targeting 1.70 – 1.62. 📉 🌊 Wave Theory + Confluence ✅ Wave (5) of C active – terminal phase underway 🎯 1.618 Fib extension ≈ 2.46 🕐 Minor wave (4) correction almost done 💥 Expect liquidity sweep above 2.45 – 2.48 then reversal 💰 Smart Money + Structure 🏦 Institutions accumulating below 2.25 before final markup 🎣 Liquidity inducement above 2.45 = trap zone 🔻 BOS below 2.1580 → bearish confirmation 🧩 Rising-wedge structure shows exhaustion 🔄 Market Cycle Perspective We’re in the Euphoria phase — once wave (5) completes, the Depression phase (Wave C) could unfold toward 1.62 support before a new macro up-cycle begins. Summary "GBPNZD is in its final euphoric rally! One last liquidity grab above 2.45 before the big markdown begins. Watch closely 👀" ⚡ If this breakdown helps your outlook — Boost 👍, Comment 💬 & Follow 🔔 for live GBPNZD updates and multi-wave setups! — Team FIBCOS Trade the liquidity, not the noise." 💡
Long
by fibcos
AUD/JPY Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table is giving us a clear signal: we have a +6 differential, pointing toward a Bullish (Moderate) bias that we simply can't ignore. 🏦 Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: AUD 3.6% level is attractive for carry trade vs JPY 0.75% (among the lowest G7), resulting in negative carry for JPY. Score AUD: +1 | Score JPY: -1 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: AUD is in Reflation with accelerating inflation (+0.79%), while JPY is in Expansion/Goldilocks but with concerningly low GDP (0.5%). Score AUD: +2 | Score JPY: +1 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: RBA is hawkish and the only one tightening (+25bp February); BoJ is hawkish but currently in a post-hike pause. Score AUD: +1 | Score JPY: +1 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Current market appetite is in a neutral regime with no specific bias. Score AUD: 0 | Score JPY: 0 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: Strong Long positions + acceleration for AUD; strong Short positions for JPY despite some recent buying. Score AUD: +2 | Score JPY: 0 Currency Score Summary: Total Score AUD: +7 (Strong) Total Score JPY: +1 (Weak) Synthesis: 💡 AUD (Strong, Score +7): Driven by high rates (3.6%), booming services PMI (56.3%), and 100% COT Long acceleration. 💡 JPY (Weak, Score +1): Penalised by low carry and stagnant GDP (0.5%) despite a hawkish central bank stance. Conclusion: Given this fundamental backdrop, we are strictly looking for Long setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide. 🚫 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 15m | Pair: AUD/JPY The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator has confirmed our statistical edge. Here’s the probabilistic data from the dashboard: 🚀 Continuation Rate (64.7%): We are currently above the 60% threshold. This confirms a healthy directional trend where continuation has a much higher probability than a reversal. 🔥 Streak Analysis (0): We are currently on impulse number 1 (following a fresh BOS). Expected Streak: 1 | 2 | 45 (Percentile: 50%) Remaining Moves: This indicates a Young trend. The statistical range (20th-80th pct) suggests a typical duration of 1 to 2 impulses. 🔄 Retest & Reaction: Retest Prob (66.7%): The probability of the price returning to test the zone after a BOS. BOS/Ret Rate (63.8%): Once inside the zone, this is the probability of a positive reaction leading to a new BOS. 🎯 Extension & Projection: Extension Range: The expected extension for this single leg is between 1.55x and 3.14x (Expected: 1.86x). Compound Extension (2.66x): This is the total projected move based on the remaining expected impulses. By multiplying the current zone height by this factor, we find our ultimate target. 3. Execution Plan on Chart 🎯 Moving over to the charts, we are using these statistics to define our operational levels: 📍 Entry and Stop Loss: We are placing a limit entry within the Demand Zone 15m (Blue Band) . The stop loss is tucked a few pips outside the zone to protect against structural invalidation. 🏁 Statistical Take Profit: Instead of an arbitrary target, we are leveraging the Compound Extension . We project the target at 2.66x relative to the pullback zone height. This allows us to capture the full extension projected by the algorithm. 🏆 Trade Parameters: 💰 Entry Price: 109.084 🛡️ Stop Loss: 108.509 🏆 Take Profit: 113.705 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Long
by MBARRECA
2
EUR/AUD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table is giving us a clear signal: we have a -5 differential, pointing toward a Bearish (Moderate) bias that we simply can't ignore. 🏦 Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: AUD offers a significantly higher and more attractive rate at 3.6% compared to the Euro's 2.15%. Score EUR: 0 | Score AUD: +1 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: Both regions are in reflation, but AUD shows accelerating inflation (+0.79%) while EUR inflation remains weak/stable. Score EUR: +1 | Score AUD: +2 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: ECB is on a neutral holding pattern, while the RBA remains hawkish with a recent +25bp hike and a tightening trend. Score EUR: 0 | Score AUD: +1 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: The market regime is currently neutral for both currencies, offering no specific directional bias from sentiment alone. Score EUR: 0 | Score AUD: 0 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: Both currencies show a COT Index of 100% with strong long positioning and purchase acceleration. Score EUR: +2 | Score AUD: +2 Currency Score Summary: Total Score EUR: +2 (Neutral) Total Score AUD: +7 (Strong) Synthesis: 💡 EUR (Weak, Score +2): Showing signs of stagnation with a low GDP of 0.7% and manufacturing PMI still in contraction (49.5%). 💡 AUD (Strong, Score +7): Robust economy with 2.3% GDP and a surging services PMI at 56.3%. Conclusion: Given this fundamental backdrop, we are strictly looking for Short setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide. 🚫 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 15m | Pair: EUR/AUD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator has confirmed our statistical edge. Here’s the probabilistic data from the dashboard: 🚀 Continuation Rate (66.1%): We are currently above the 60% threshold. This confirms a healthy directional trend where continuation has a much higher probability than a reversal. 🔥 Streak Analysis (0): We are currently at the start of a potential new cycle. Expected Streak: 1 | 2 | 5 Remaining Moves: This indicates a Young trend. The statistical range suggests we are positioned early in the structural movement. 🔄 Retest & Reaction: Retest Prob (69.9%): The probability of the price returning to test the zone after a BOS. BOS/Ret Rate (61%): Once inside the zone, this is the probability of a positive reaction leading to a new BOS. 🎯 Extension & Projection: Extension Range: The expected extension for this single leg is between 1.56x and 3.16x (Expected: 1.78x). Compound Extension (2.47x): This is the total projected move based on the remaining expected impulses. By multiplying the current zone height by this factor, we find our ultimate target. 3. Execution Plan on Chart 🎯 Moving over to the charts, we are using these statistics to define our operational levels: 📍 Entry and Stop Loss: We are placing a limit entry within the Supply Zone 15m (Red Band) . The stop loss is tucked a few pips outside the zone at 1.68740 to protect against structural invalidation. 🏁 Statistical Take Profit: Instead of an arbitrary target, we are leveraging the Compound Extension . We project the target at 2.47x relative to the pullback zone height. This allows us to capture the full extension projected by the algorithm. 🏆 Trade Parameters: 💰 Entry Price: 1.68410 🛡️ Stop Loss: 1.68740 🏆 Take Profit: 1.66764 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Short
by MBARRECA
MNQ Tuesday Pre-Market: Buy Side in Sight, but HTF SSL Left📊 MNQ H2026 — Tuesday, February 10 Pre-Market Analysis Price is currently trading around 25,390, grinding higher through the overnight session from the 24,955 Monday low. The structure is showing bullish intent, but there are two key scenarios to watch today. Must wait for market to show if it will either sweep the BSL and continue lower or we continue to reach the FVG Unfilled, BSL will show use, Watch Monday Low 🎯 Bullish Scenario — Buy Side Liquidity Sweep The primary draw on liquidity (DOL) sits above at the buy-side level near 26,100. If price continues this displacement higher, we're looking for: • Buy-side liquidity above previous highs to get taken • FVG unfilled at 26,050 to be the target • Clean move into premium pricing above the DOL 📉 Bearish Scenario — HTF SSL Target We left behind higher timeframe sell-side liquidity (SSL) below. If price fails to reach the buy-side target and breaks down from current levels: • Expect a retracement to sweep the HTF SSL • The unfilled FVG becomes resistance if we lose it • Lower timeframe market structure shift would confirm the move down 🔑 Key Levels • Buy Side Target: ~26,050 (DOL) • FVG (Unfilled): ~26,050 • HTF SSL (Below): ~24,150 ⚡ Bias: Bullish above FVG, but cautious — the SSL below is unfinished business. If we can't reach buy-side and structure breaks, that's where we're heading. Trade smart. Let the market show its hand first. — DropKing | ICT Smart Entry
CME_MINI:MNQH2026
by DropkingICT
1
EUR/USD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table is giving us a clear signal: we have a -2 differential, pointing toward a Bearish (Moderate) bias that we simply can't ignore. 🏦 Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: USD Fed funds at 3.75% offer a significant carry advantage over the BCE at 2.15%. Score EUR: 0 | Score USD: +1 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: EUR is in a Reflation phase with weak growth, while the USD enjoys a "Goldilocks" Expansion with solid GDP. Score EUR: +1 | Score USD: +1 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: ECB remains neutral with a prolonged hold, while the Fed shows a dovish post-cut trend. Score EUR: 0 | Score USD: -1 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Market sentiment is currently neutral for both currencies with no significant bias. Score EUR: 0 | Score USD: 0 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: Speculators are heavily long on EUR at maximums, while USD shorts are being covered, suggesting a sentiment improvement. Score EUR: +2 | Score USD: +1 Currency Score Summary: Total Score EUR: +2 (Mixed) Total Score USD: +4 (Balanced) Synthesis: 💡 EUR (Weak, Score +2): Mixed situation with stagnant growth (0.7%) and manufacturing PMI in contraction (<50). 💡 USD (Strong, Score +4): Solid growth (2.1%) and expanding PMIs, supported by positive employment data from jobless claims. Conclusion: Given this fundamental backdrop, we are strictly looking for Short setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide. 🚫 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 1h | Pair: EUR/USD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator has confirmed our statistical edge. Here’s the probabilistic data from the dashboard: 🚀 Continuation Rate (61%): We are currently above the 60% threshold. This confirms a healthy directional trend where continuation has a much higher probability than a reversal. 🔥 Streak Analysis (0): We are currently on impulse number 0 (Waiting for breakout). Expected Streak: 1 | 2 | 3 Remaining Moves: High. This indicates a Young trend. The statistical range suggests we are at the start of a potential new bearish leg. 🔄 Retest & Reaction: Retest Prob (63.5%): The probability of the price returning to test the zone after a BOS. BOS/Ret Rate (55.5%): Once inside the zone, this is the probability of a positive reaction leading to a new BOS. 🎯 Extension & Projection: Extension Range: The expected extension for this single leg is between 1.58x and 1.81x (Expected: 1.58x). Compound Extension (2.52x): This is the total projected move based on the remaining expected impulses. 3. Execution Plan on Chart 🎯 Moving over to the charts, we are using these statistics to define our operational levels: 📍 Entry and Stop Loss: We are placing a limit entry within the Supply Zone 1h (Red/Grey Band) . The stop loss is tucked a few pips outside the zone to protect against structural invalidation. 🏁 Statistical Take Profit: Instead of an arbitrary target, we are leveraging the Compound Extension . We project the target at 2.52x relative to the pullback zone height. This allows us to capture the full extension projected by the algorithm. 🏆 Trade Parameters: 💰 Entry Price: 1.19116 🛡️ Stop Loss: 1.19594 🏆 Take Profit: 1.17150 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Short
by MBARRECA
AUD/CAD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table is giving us a clear signal: we have a +5 differential, pointing toward a Bullish (Moderate) bias that we simply can't ignore. 🏦 Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: RBA at 3.6% offers elevated and competitive yields compared to the BOC's mid-low 2.25% stance. Score AUD: +1 | Score CAD: 0 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: AUD is in a Reflation regime with accelerating inflation (+0.79%), while CAD shows signs of Stagflation with a borderline 50.9 Manufacturing PMI. Score AUD: +2 | Score CAD: -1 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: RBA remains hawkish following a recent +25bp hike; BOC maintains a neutral "prolonged holding" stance. Score AUD: +1 | Score CAD: 0 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Market sentiment is currently neutral for both currencies with no specific bias. Score AUD: 0 | Score CAD: 0 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: Both currencies show maximum bullishness from speculators with a strong acceleration in long positions. Score AUD: +2 | Score CAD: +2 Currency Score Summary: Total Score AUD: +6 (Strong Bullish) Total Score CAD: +1 (Neutral/Positive) Synthesis: 💡 AUD (Very Strong, Score +6): Driven by a hawkish RBA, solid 2.3% GDP, and strong PMI expansion. 💡 CAD (Positive, Score +1): Supported by COT data and target inflation, but weighed down by moderate 1.6% GDP and weak manufacturing. Conclusion: Given this fundamental backdrop, we are strictly looking for Long setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide. 🚫 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 1h | Pair: AUD/CAD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator has confirmed our statistical edge. Here’s the probabilistic data from the dashboard: 🚀 Continuation Rate (63.6%): We are currently above the 60% threshold. This confirms a healthy directional trend where continuation has a much higher probability than a reversal. 🔥 Streak Analysis (0): We are currently on impulse number 1 (start of a new cycle). Expected Streak: 1 | 2 | 3 (Percentile: 55.2%) Remaining Moves: 1 to 2. This indicates a Young trend. 🔄 Retest & Reaction: Retest Prob (67.5%): High probability of the price returning to test the demand zone after the Break of Structure (BOS). BOS/Ret Rate (55.2%): Once inside the zone, there is a solid probability of a positive reaction leading to a new BOS. 🎯 Extension & Projection: Extension Range: The expected extension for this single leg is between 1.50x and 2.78x (Expected: 1.78x). Compound Extension (2.45x): This is the total projected move based on the remaining expected impulses. 3. Execution Plan on Chart 🎯 Moving over to the charts, we are using these statistics to define our operational levels: 📍 Entry and Stop Loss: We are placing a limit entry within the Demand Zone 1h (Cyan/Blue Band) . The stop loss is tucked a few pips outside the zone at 0.95023 to protect against structural invalidation. 🏁 Statistical Take Profit: Instead of an arbitrary target, we are leveraging the Compound Extension . We project the target at 2.45x relative to the pullback zone height, aligning with the 0.98553 level. This allows us to capture the full extension projected by the algorithm. 🏆 Trade Parameters: 💰 Entry Price: 0.95583 🛡️ Stop Loss: 0.95023 🏆 Take Profit: 0.98553 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Long
by MBARRECA
GOLD 09/02 – H4 ROUTE MAP | SMC STRUCTURE CONTEXTGold prices are recovering from a low balance zone after a strong sell-off at the beginning of the month. However, this is not yet a confirmation of a return to an uptrend, but rather a revaluation process in a broken structure. The current H4 is in a decisive zone: recovering to continue the decline or having enough strength to reclaim the old structure. MACRO CONTEXT – WHAT IS THE CASH FLOW THINKING? The USD maintains its strength thanks to stable US economic data and expectations that the Fed will not rush to ease. US bond yields remain high → continue to pressure gold in the medium term. Geopolitical risks still exist, but cash flow has not returned to safe havens, indicating that the market prioritizes cash flow and yields over defense. ➡️ Result: Gold has a technical rebound, but there is no strong enough catalyst to reverse the H4 trend. H4 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – WHAT THE MARKET IS DOING The previous uptrend has been broken (CHoCH down). The current recovery is just a pullback in the down structure. Prices are operating between Fibonacci + FVG, where the market often "reveals its hand." ROUTE MAP – KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH 🔴 UPPER ZONE – SELL REACTION / RESISTANCE 5050 – 5100 Fib 0.618 Technical recovery zone in the down structure → If prices reach this zone but are not accepted, the recovery is likely to end. 5220 – 5300 FVG H4 + Fib 0.786 → Only when holding above this zone will the bearish H4 scenario be invalidated. 🟢 LOWER ZONE – BUY REACTION / SUPPORT 4920 – 4950 Fib 0.5 + FVG → Balance zone, likely to see two-way reactions – prioritize observing price reactions. 4800 – 4850 Fib 0.382 + demand H4 → Important support zone if selling pressure returns. 4600 – 4400 Liquidity low → Only activated if the down structure expands. HOW LUCASGRAY VIEWS THE CURRENT MARKET News creates short-term volatility, But the H4 structure is what determines the direction. We do not chase prices. We wait for the market to react at high confluence zones to distinguish: technical recovery rhythm (intraday scalp) or acceptance of the structure for the next swing. The most beautiful upward rhythms are often where the market "traps emotions." The truth always lies in the price zone that the market dares to hold or not. Upcoming updates will focus on actual price reactions at marked zones. Follow to not miss scalp zones and important structure pivot points this week. — LucasGrayTrading
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
2
EUR-GBP Local Long! Buy! Hello,Traders! EURGBP reacts strongly from a well-defined horizontal demand zone after sell-side liquidity is swept. Bullish response and displacement suggest smart money accumulation, favoring a rebound toward higher liquidity. Time Frame 5H. Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
ETHUSD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 15m | Pair: ETHUSD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator gave us the confirmation we needed for our statistical edge. Here is where the indicator makes the difference. Look at the dashboard on the right, numbers don't lie: 🚀 Continuation Rate (74.5%): We are well above the 60% threshold. This tells us the market is in a healthy, directional trend. Statistically, betting on continuation pays off more than looking for a reversal. 🔥 Streak (9) & Streak Pct (4%): We are at the 9th consecutive impulse. It's a mature trend (we are in the 4th percentile of trend extension), so watch those stop losses, but as long as the music plays, we dance. 🔄 Retest (78.6%): The indicator tells us that statistically, when price creates a new Break of Structure (BOS), it retraces into the previous zone 78.6% of the time. 💥 BOS/Ret Rate (65.2%): This parameter tells us that once price retraces inside the previous zone, it has a high probability of reacting and creating a new BOS. 🎯 Extension Rate (1.8x): The algorithm projects an ambitious target. We expect this move to extend 1.8 times the current pullback leg. That's where we'll take profit. 2. Execution Plan on Chart Moving to the chart, the SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator supports us in pinpointing liquidity to define entry and stop loss: Entry and Stop Loss: We place a limit entry in the Supply Zone 15m (Blue Band) and the stop loss a few pips above the zone at the structural high. Take Profit: We leverage the asset's statistical analysis offered by the Extension Rate and place the target by measuring with Fibonacci at 1.8x relative to the pullback leg. Trade Parameters: Entry Price: 1963.2 Stop Loss: 2021.9 Take Profit: 1563.2 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by MBARRECA
ORACALE (ORCL) Rally! Cycle 3 → $400, Eyes on Supercycle $6,000🌀 ORACLE (ORCL) – Elliott Wave Supercycle Analysis | Smart Money & Fibonacci Confluence 🔭 Macro Perspective Oracle’s long-term chart (NYSE: ORCL) showcases a powerful Supercycle (III) wave in motion — a multi-decade expansion phase fueled by institutional participation, structural growth, and technological innovation. The internal Cycle waves (1–5) are clearly defined, with current price action positioned deep within Cycle Wave (3) — the strongest segment of this major bullish leg. 🟢 Supercycle Wave (I) (1987 – 2000) Elliott Behavior: The first grand impulsive advance, representing Oracle’s rise during the early software and database revolution. Fibonacci Structure: Wave (3) extended toward the 2.618× of Wave (1), typical of an early institutional growth wave. SMC Dynamics: Breaks of structure (BoS) at each impulsive stage. Liquidity sweeps before rallies — consistent smart money accumulation patterns. Fundamentals: Explosive earnings growth through enterprise software adoption and global market expansion. 💥 Conclusion: The dot-com peak in 2000 completed Supercycle (I). 🔵 Supercycle Wave (II) (2000 – 2002) Nature: The sharp, emotion-driven retracement following the tech bubble. Fibonacci Retracement: Retraced into the 0.236 zone of (I), providing the long-term discount region for accumulation. SMC Characteristics: Liquidity grab beneath 1998–1999 structure. Long accumulation base confirming institutional re-entry. Fundamentals: Oracle streamlined operations and built the groundwork for enterprise-level solutions. 🧱 Bottom: Wave (II) ended around 2002 — the base of today’s decades-long uptrend. 🟣 Supercycle Wave (III) (2002 – 2030s, ongoing) This ongoing macro impulsive wave contains five internal Cycle Waves (1–5) . ⚪ Cycle Wave (1) (2002 – 2019) Elliott Context: A powerful, sustained impulsive leg lasting nearly two decades. Structure: Clean five-wave advance with strong extensions during 2010–2019. Fibonacci Note: The move achieved near the 1.618× extension relative to its starting point. SMC Insight: Consistent higher highs and higher lows throughout the period. BoS continuation patterns confirming institutional markup. Fundamentals: Expansion of Oracle’s business model — cloud transition, data analytics, and enterprise software dominance. 📈 End: Cycle (1) peaked near 2019 , completing the first internal impulsive leg of Supercycle (III). 🔵 Cycle Wave (2) (2019 – 2020) Nature: A sharp yet shallow correction that coincided with the global market decline (COVID crash). Fibonacci Retracement: Retraced around the 0.236–0.382 zone of Wave (1). SMC Dynamics: Liquidity sweep under 2018–2019 structure. Fast accumulation pattern — strong re-accumulation footprint. Fundamentals: Short-term market shock, but Oracle’s fundamentals remained intact and rebounded swiftly. 🧭 Conclusion: Cycle (2) ended in 2020, setting the foundation for the explosive ongoing Cycle (3) rally. 🟢 Cycle Wave (3) (2020 – ~2026, in progress) Elliott Context: The most powerful internal impulsive wave — currently unfolding. Target Zone: Projected to complete near $380–$400 , expected around late 2025 to early 2026 . Fibonacci Extension: The 2.618× extension of Wave (1) perfectly aligns near $400. SMC & Market Structure: Continuous BoS and HH–HL formations — clear institutional control. No macro distribution yet; structure remains intact. Liquidity inducements near highs suggest ongoing markup phase. Price Action: Aggressive impulses, shallow retracements, and orderly continuation patterns. Fundamentals: Rapid expansion in Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), AI-driven services, and recurring revenue models. Sustained EPS growth and improved margin performance support wave maturity. 🚀 Expectation: Completion near $400 will likely trigger a Cycle (4) corrective structure before the final impulsive push. 🟠 Cycle Wave (4) (Projected: 2026 – 2028) Elliott Behavior: A corrective phase — retracing part of the strong Cycle (3) run. Fibonacci Retracement: Expected correction into the 0.236–0.382 zone of Wave (3), roughly $200–$280. SMC Insight: Break of structure (BoS) near top zones to induce liquidity. Re-accumulation base forming after liquidity sweep below key supports. Market Psychology: Cooling from euphoria, consolidation, and rebalancing of valuations. Fundamentals: Period of stabilization after several years of aggressive expansion. 📉 Outlook: Likely forms the structural foundation for the next rally phase (Cycle 5). 🟢 Cycle Wave (5) (Projected: 2028 – early 2030s) Elliott Context: The final impulsive leg completing Supercycle (III). Target Zone: Fibonacci 3.618× extension (~$900–$950) of Cycle (1). SMC Structure: Final markup phase with strong BoS continuation patterns. Climax rallies as retail sentiment peaks. Price Action: Parabolic trend, thin retracements, and expanding volatility. Fundamentals: Oracle could cement its dominance in global data, AI, and enterprise infrastructure markets. 💎 Completion: Cycle (5) will mark the end of Supercycle (III), leading into the long-term corrective Supercycle (IV). 🔶 Supercycle Wave (IV) (Projected: 2030s – 2040s) Nature: Major macro correction after decades of expansion. Fibonacci Depth: Likely retraces into the 0.382–0.5 zone of (III). SMC Behavior: Distribution → liquidity sweep → re-accumulation. Market Context: Could align with macroeconomic tightening or sectoral rotation. 📊 Purpose: To reset valuations and build energy for the final Supercycle (V). 🟩 Supercycle Wave (V) (Projected: 2040s – 2050s) Elliott Context: The final impulsive wave of Oracle’s century-long trend. Fibonacci Target: 3.618× expansion (~$6,000). SMC Behavior: Final institutional markup followed by distribution and secular reversal. Fundamentals: Could coincide with Oracle’s role as a global AI–data infrastructure leader. 🚀 Legacy Wave: The culmination of decades of innovation and expansion. ⚙️ Macro Summary Accumulation (1980s–1990s) – Smart money foundation. Expansion (2000s–2020s) – Institutional markup phase. Distribution (2030s) – Macro correction and rotation. Re-accumulation (Post-2040s) – Long-term reset for future cycles. 🧠 Technical & Fundamental Alignment ✨ Elliott Structure: Clear impulsive (I–V) sequence with macro rhythm. ✨ Fibonacci Confluence: $400 (2.618× of Wave 1) & $900 (3.618× of Wave 1). ✨ SMC: Institutional control with clean BoS → reaccumulation → continuation. ✨ Price Action: Aggressive bullish order flow with no macro distribution yet. ✨ Fundamentals: Oracle’s AI + Cloud strategy drives sustainable growth. 🌍 Conclusion Oracle (ORCL) continues to trend within Supercycle (III) — the most powerful long-term wave. Cycle Wave (3): In progress, targeting $380–$400 by end of 2025 / early 2026. Cycle Wave (4): Anticipated retracement toward $200–$280 zone. Cycle Wave (5): Final impulsive run toward $900+ into the early 2030s. 📈 Macro Bias: Long-term bullish — institutional structure intact. 📊 Short-term Outlook: Momentum strong but nearing Cycle 3 completion; prepare for corrective rotation. 💬 Summary: Oracle’s price evolution beautifully mirrors its technological growth story — a near-perfect alignment of Elliott Wave symmetry , Smart Money structure , and fundamental strength . The completion of Cycle 3 near $400 will open the door to an ideal re-entry opportunity for the next macro leg higher. #ORCL 📈 #Oracle 💼 #ElliottWave 🌊 #WaveAnalysis 🔹 #Supercycle 🚀 #Fibonacci 📊 #SmartMoney 💎 #PriceAction 🕯️ #MarketStructure 🏗️ #LongTermBull 🟢 #StockAnalysis 💹 #TechnicalAnalysis ⚙️ #Investing 💰 #TradingViewIdeas 💡 💬 Respected traders and analysts! Your insights matter. Share your views, confirmations, or constructive criticism in the comments below. Let’s discuss ORCL’s structural evolution, Elliott Wave setup, and long-term Supercycle potential 🚀📈. — Team FIBCOS 💎
NYSE:ORCLLong
by fibcos
9