SMCI: The server king returns. Cisco opens a second doorSuper Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI again looks far more interesting from a fundamental standpoint than the chart alone might suggest. After a prolonged downtrend, the stock is attempting to form a reversal structure, and price is now around $40.10. The main support zone sits in the $29 to $33 range. That remains the key area buyers must defend. Above, the first serious resistance zone is around $54.73 to $58.05. A breakout there could open the door to $68.05 and then $80.73. The all-time high is much higher, near $122.90, so the long-term potential remains significant if Supermicro truly transitions from recovery into a new sustainable uptrend.
And this is where the technical picture starts to be reinforced by fundamentals that look much stronger than the chart alone would imply. The company closed FY2026 with revenue of $39.1 billion versus $22.0 billion a year earlier. Net income came in at $2.2 billion, with EPS of $3.26 versus $1.68 a year earlier. The fourth quarter was especially strong: revenue reached $11.1 billion, net income $1.18 billion, and gross margin recovered to 17.5% from 9.9% in the prior quarter. That margin recovery is precisely the trigger the technical picture has begun to price in.
But the main fundamental catalyst is not even in the already published results. In Q4, Supermicro received more than $60 billion in new orders, after which the company reported a record backlog entering FY2027. Important: this is the volume of new orders to be shipped in future quarters, not guaranteed revenue for the next quarter. Management expects $65 to $72 billion in revenue for FY2027, which shows the scale of expectations from AI infrastructure. That order flow is what creates the fundamental backdrop allowing the current $29 to $33 support zone to be viewed as accumulation rather than a continuation of the decline.
And here comes Cisco. In August, Cisco announced the expansion of its Secure AI Factory with NVIDIA through a partnership with Supermicro. Cisco's ecosystem is adding Supermicro's high-density liquid and air-cooled systems, including rack-scale solutions for NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 and HGX Rubin NVL8 . Cisco plans to begin offering Supermicro compute solutions as part of this platform starting in October 2026. This gives Supermicro an additional channel to large enterprise and cloud customers, and that could be the driver that helps price break through the $54.73 to $58.05 resistance zone.
At the same time, a key question about the quality of growth remains. At the end of FY2026, Supermicro had $7.5 billion in cash but also $8.7 billion in bank debt and convertible bonds. So calling the company free of financial risk would be wrong. The main task now is to ensure the huge flow of AI orders converts not only into revenue but also into sustainable margin and cash flow. Margin, cash flow, and the ability to scale production become the next key checkpoints, and they will determine whether the technical reversal is confirmed fundamentally.
Historical issues with auditing and corporate control should also not be presented as a current crisis. In 2024, EY left the company, after which Supermicro appointed BDO and conducted an independent review. The special committee found no grounds for a restatement of financial statements. Later, the company also conducted a separate review related to former employees and alleged export control violations. The review found no evidence that current management knew of the alleged scheme or that the company's financial statements were unreliable because of it. That backdrop removed part of the reputational pressure that weighed on the stock in 2024 and 2025, allowing the technical picture to begin forming a reversal structure.
MACD is also gradually changing character: the histogram and indicator lines show improving momentum after prolonged seller pressure. But while price remains below key resistance, it is premature to speak of a fully confirmed long-term reversal.
The main conflict for SMCI right now is simple: demand for AI infrastructure is huge, $60+ billion in new orders have already been received, Cisco is adding Supermicro to its AI infrastructure ecosystem, but the market wants to see how profitably the company can execute that volume.
If price can establish itself above resistance, the fundamental story gets additional confirmation from the chart. If the $29 to $33 support is lost, the entire current reversal structure will come under serious pressure.
This publication is for analytical purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Technical levels are scenarios, not guarantees of price movement. 
Long
SMCI preparing its A.I. Supercycle phase. Potential for $700.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has been on a Bear Cycle under Lower Highs since its March 2024 All Time High (ATH). That succeeded a Major Expansion Phase that saw a multi-year parabolic rally reaching that ATH.
This is not the first time the market does that. In face every major rally of SMCI started after a period of prolonged Lower Highs, trading significantly below its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), even 1M MA100 (green trend-line).
When its 1M RSI however started printing a formation like the one since 2025, then the market bottomed. With SMCI's first major rally era being called as its "Discovery Phase", we named the second its "Major Expansion" and right now after the current bottom formation plays out, it will initiate its "A.I. Supercycle Phase". Based on that it should aim above the 1.0 Fib with the closest candidate being the 1.236 Fib extension, where SMCI can even target $700.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 Long 
SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
++ NVIDIA, OpenAI and SB Energy plan 4.25 GW AI Data Center campus in Ohio - W.Media
+ News | OpenAI, SB Energy, Nvidia team up on one of largest planned data center projects - CoStar (fading)
+ BlackRock (BLK) & NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): BlackRock’s Larry Fink Says the US Alone Needs 70 Gigawatts of Power for AI (fading)
112 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) Long 
SMCI — Daily Structure: The Empty Space MattersSMCI is moving into an interesting part of the daily structure, and the most important thing on this chart may actually be where price historically has not spent much time.
The major upper battlefield, in my view, is roughly 45–48.
That area combines prior structure with the long-term descending trendline and is where I would expect a more meaningful fight between buyers and sellers if price continues higher.
What stands out below it is the lack of sustained agreement.
From roughly 32–45, SMCI historically has spent relatively little time consolidating.
The 32–40 region is especially thin.
Price has generally moved through that area rather than establishing prolonged acceptance inside it.
That does not mean consolidation there is impossible.
It does mean I would be cautious about assuming current price automatically becomes a new long-term balance area simply because price has reached it.
My bearish thesis does not require rejection here
SMCI could reject from current structure.
It could also continue higher toward 45–48 before sellers regain control.
Both remain reasonable possibilities.
A move higher through this relatively empty area would not, by itself, invalidate the bearish thesis.
The more important question is what happens when price reaches the upper battlefield.
A rejection around 45–48 would keep the larger descending structure intact.
A clean break through that area followed by acceptance and structure developing above it would be much more important.
That is the sequence I care about:
break → acceptance → structure
Not simply a wick through resistance.
Why 52 matters
The next major reference is around 52.
If SMCI can break the descending structure, establish itself above the 45–48 battlefield, and then gain acceptance above 52, I would have to give substantially more weight to the bullish thesis.
That could represent a meaningful change in the larger daily structure rather than another rally inside a broader decline.
The lower battlefield
If the bearish thesis begins developing, the 30–32 region becomes extremely important.
Unlike much of the territory above it, this area has much stronger historical evidence of agreement and sustained negotiation.
That makes 30–32 a legitimate base-or-break decision area, not simply another downside target.
If price reaches it and buyers establish acceptance, it could become the foundation for another larger move.
If that structure fails decisively, however, the bearish picture changes materially and the lower references around 28 and 22 become increasingly relevant.
I also highlighted the much deeper historical low on the chart.
That is not a prediction or target.
It simply provides evidence that substantially deeper downside has existed within this broader structure before.
That establishes possibility, not probability.
For that deeper scenario to become credible, I would need to see deterioration happen sequentially rather than assume it in advance.
What I’m watching
My current structural framework is:
45–48: primary upper battlefield.
32–45: historically thin acceptance area.
32–40: especially little evidence of prolonged consolidation.
Break + acceptance above 45–48: bullish thesis strengthens materially.
Acceptance above 52: potentially meaningful daily structural change.
Rejection from current structure or 45–48: bearish thesis remains viable.
30–32: major lower negotiation / base-or-break area.
Decisive failure there: deeper downside becomes increasingly relevant.
The dotted paths are illustrations of possible outcomes, not candle-for-candle predictions.
The important lesson here is that absence of agreement can be information too.
I am not trying to predict exactly where SMCI turns.
I am identifying where price has historically been willing to stay, where it has tended to travel quickly, and where the next meaningful structural decisions are likely to occur. SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
++ Oakland real estate developer announces plan for data center in downtown - CBS News
++ Super Micro Computer beats on earnings as margins surge (fading)
110 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) Long 
SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
++ Oakland real estate developer announces plan for data center in downtown - CBS News
++ Super Micro Computer beats on earnings as margins surge (fading)
110 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) Long 
SMCI — What Would Make This a True Long-Term Bull Reversal?There are plenty of ways SMCI could develop from here.
But possibilities are not trades.
We trade probabilities, not possibilities.
And on the daily chart, I personally do not see a long-term setup with enough evidence yet to call this a confirmed bullish reversal.
The reason is simple:
The long-term pattern has not broken.
SMCI can rally. It can reclaim AOAs. It can build higher lows. It can even make a substantial move higher while still remaining inside the larger descending structure.
Those things can improve the chart without changing the long-term trend.
For me, calling this a genuine long-term bullish reversal would require price to challenge that descending structure, break through it, and then demonstrate that it can hold outside the pattern rather than simply wick through it and fall back inside.
Until then, bullish movement is still occurring within a structure that has repeatedly produced lower resistance over time.
That distinction matters.
A bullish move is not automatically a bullish reversal.
What I would want to see
If I were evaluating this as a swing trade, I would want the market to provide considerably more evidence before putting long-term money behind the thesis.
I would want to see price work through the important AOAs, challenge the long-term descending boundary, and establish sustainable structure above it.
When that happens is impossible to know.
It could happen relatively soon.
It could take months.
And unfortunately for bulls, it could take much longer.
That uncertainty is exactly why I would not trade the long-term possibilities shown by this chart today.
There simply isn't a probability I personally find attractive enough yet.
Disclosure
I am primarily a day trader.
I am not currently trading SMCI as a long-term position, and this analysis should be read in that context.
This is simply how I would evaluate the chart if I were considering a swing or longer-term position.
For now, my conclusion is straightforward:
The price action can improve before the long-term trend actually changes.
If the long-term descending structure eventually breaks and price proves it can live above it, then I would reassess the probabilities.
Until then, I would rather wait for the market to provide evidence than place money behind one of many possible outcomes.
Preparation > Prediction. Long 
Long 
SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
+ NVIDIA teams up with Wall Street giants to finance over $500 billion for AI infrastructure - Neowin
+ Nvidia CEO Calls AI Data Centers 'Investable Assets' After Partnership With Wall Street Firms For $500B Financing Ventur (fading)
+ What Does Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Winning A Gigawatt AI Data Center Mean? - Yahoo Finance (fading)
21 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) Long 
SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
+ TSMC Sales Rise 45% After AI Spending Roars On Despite Jitters - Bloomberg.com
+ Licensed source - withheld (fading)
+ Vistra (VST) Could Be 53% Undervalued On EBITDA Growth And Data Center Deal - simplywall.st
13 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) Long 
SMCI Daily — Structure Before the MoveSMCI is one of those charts where the more I look at it, the less interested I am in trying to predict the next candle and the more interested I am in mapping the structure around it.
Right now, I don’t particularly love the setup.
That could change fairly quickly.
The larger daily structure still has SMCI trading beneath a long-running downward-sloping trendline, and that line has repeatedly mattered. I marked the major reactions with red arrows because each one helps establish that this is not a line I drew just because it looked convenient. Price has tested that general declining structure multiple times and repeatedly failed to establish itself above it.
That makes any future approach worth paying attention to.
The major horizontal levels
I have two larger horizontal reference areas marked at approximately $52 and $66.
The $52 area is especially important to me because it overlaps with the descending structure and has repeatedly acted as a meaningful decision area.
That creates a form of confluence I care about much more than any single line by itself.
A break of the diagonal trendline would be interesting.
A break of the trendline plus a successful reclaim of $52 would mean substantially more to me.
The $66 area sits above that as the next larger structural reference.
The first Area of Agreement
The first marked Area of Agreement developed during the earlier consolidation phase before price pushed higher.
This is important because it helps illustrate something I think gets overlooked in TA:
The best-looking move isn’t necessarily the best trade. Structure before the move is what can make it tradable.
That first violent spike on the left side of the chart was impressive, but catching something like that cleanly either direction would have required a tremendous amount of anticipation.
The later move was different.
After SMCI had already developed recognizable structure, price pushed sharply higher into the declining trendline and the broader resistance area.
That gave traders something much more useful: context.
Instead of guessing where a vertical move might stop, there was an established structural area where rejection actually meant something.
Price rejected the larger trend structure, dropped back down, and then began establishing a more defined range beneath it.
That range has now become its own reference structure.
To me, this is much more useful than simply labeling the entire region as chop.
It gives us a defined area where price has repeatedly found acceptance and where future expansion could begin.
The $21 level
The lower horizontal area around $21 is the clearest major support reference on this chart.
We’ve already seen an attempted break below that area get stopped and reversed.
I marked that because a failed breakdown at a major level can be just as informative as a successful breakout.
That said, I would not assume $21 automatically holds forever.
The more recent test did not actually reach the level, which is why I specifically labeled it “No Test.”
That distinction matters to me.
Close is not the same thing as tested.
What I think could happen next
The green dotted path is not a prediction.
It is one possible structural development I can imagine from here.
If SMCI eventually works its way back toward the descending trendline, I would not be surprised to see multiple attempts before any meaningful breakout.
That area carries too much prior history for me to assume price simply slices through it on the first try.
A rejection followed by consolidation, another test, and eventual breakout would make structural sense.
So would another failure.
That is why I am not particularly excited about the setup at approximately $31 right now.
It is sitting between more meaningful decision areas.
Bullish scenario
A bullish development would begin with SMCI continuing to build above the lower structure and eventually pressing toward the descending trendline.
A break above the diagonal would get my attention.
A reclaim and hold above $52 would get considerably more of it.
From there, $66 becomes the next major structural area I would watch.
Neutral scenario
SMCI may simply remain trapped inside this broader structure.
There is plenty of room for price to continue rotating between the lower support region and the overhead resistance without establishing a meaningful longer-term trend.
That is probably the scenario I am most interested in respecting until price proves otherwise.
Bearish scenario
Failure of the current structure brings the lower portion of the range back into focus.
A proper retest of $21 would be important.
A clean breakdown and acceptance below it would materially change the chart and invalidate much of the constructive scenario shown here.
What I’m watching
Right now I am less interested in choosing a direction than I am in watching how price behaves as it approaches these established structures.
The chart already gives me the reference points.
Now price has to tell me which ones actually matter next.
That is the value of mapping this beforehand.
Not predicting every move.
Just making sure the next major move does not arrive without context. Long 
Long 
Long 
Supermicro Just Revealed the Number That Could Change the StorySupermicro has released a preliminary business update that could materially change the market’s view of the company.
I opened a medium-term position at $28.94 , with the shares reacting strongly in extended-hours trading following the announcement.
The most important part of the update, in my view, is not simply the expected revenue figure. It is the combination of improving profitability and exceptional new demand.
Supermicro now expects gross margin of 15–17% , compared with its previous guidance of only 8.2–8.4%.
This is significant because margin pressure has been one of the main concerns surrounding the company. Supermicro has already demonstrated strong demand for its AI infrastructure, but investors have questioned whether that growth could translate into sustainable profitability.
For context, the company reported gross margins of 6.3% in Q2 FY2026 and 9.9% in Q3 FY2026 . A preliminary result of 15–17% would therefore represent a substantial sequential improvement.
The second major development is that Supermicro received more than $60 billion in new orders during the quarter, taking its backlog to record levels.
This gives the company considerable potential revenue visibility over the coming quarters, although the real test will be its ability to convert those orders into recognised revenue while maintaining the improved margin level.
Revenue for the quarter is still expected near the lower end of the company’s $11–12.5 billion guidance , so the update is not without risks.
Technical view
The stock is trading around a broad historical demand zone that has supported the price several times since 2023.
The RSI is also below the midpoint, suggesting the stock was not technically overbought before the extended-hours reaction.
My levels for the coming months are:
🎯 $34 — Barclays price target
🎯 $40 — Needham price target
🎯 $48 — Current Wall Street high target
These levels represent potential upside of approximately:
$34: +17.5%
$40: +38.2%
$48: +65.9%
The bullish case is based on Supermicro combining strong AI infrastructure demand with a meaningful recovery in margins.
The main risks are execution, possible order delays or cancellations, and whether the company can protect margins while delivering such a large backlog.
What matters more for Supermicro from here: the $60B+ order intake or the expected recovery in gross margin? Long 
Long 
Short
