Coffee is trading near multi year horizontal support of 95 cents. While excessive supply and falling Brazilian real crushed the prices, there is ray of hope ahead. With price almost reaching 95 level which seems safe accumulation level, there can be gains in coming months. Farmers in Brazil are reducing coffee cultivation area will lead reduction in inventories in...
Orange Juice price is a bit oversold and a bullish correction could come very soon. I built a bull spread OJF19-OJH19 and I wait for an entry about -1,50 with SL -2,50 ($150/contract) and PT 2,00 ($525/contract).
Lester Davids, our Trading Desk analyst, is bullish on sugar over the medium term, but in the short term there may have a potential short/sell.
Interesting that all the softs (except wheat) have all moved together. Possibly look to accumulate a basket of softs on a bit of a pull back.
25 Apr 2018 Cotton #2 Ice
Price fall of Apr24 points to immediate support at 81.10 then 80.70
This latter support is significant and failure here (Daily close below) will open next support at 79.70 (double bottom retest) and 77.70
If the double bottom retest gives way then price will probably move down to 74.40 (minimum) or more likely 73.90...
.... doubt it will happen this year. last year we had three severe frost scare days/weekend.
IMHO this market is where it is merely because of cautious buyers ahead of the season.
I see rangebound through July and if no frost happens more downward potential.
Technically speaking, the bull market appears to be over.
Technically overbought. New highs made with declining volume. Not an indicator for continued strength. Overall uptrend is intact, but we are near upper end of trend channel. On top of that market is overbought based on BB, RSI and Stochastik.
1. Middle bollinger Band
2.Upsloping red shorter term trendline
3. Longer term red trend line, and 100 day MA...
After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies...
Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO.
short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies....
I am bullish Coffee since a series of bullish momentum divergences started to develop in February, March and April. As with other commodities, I am convinced that the early 2016 lows were important cyclical lows. I am therefore bullish Coffee long-term. The weakening US Dollar should further support the entire commodities complex.
The latest correction brought...