Long
Cocoa: Breakout walks into overbought territory. Does It Hold?Cocoa has now done something not seen in a while, namely broken nicely higher, gaining 2.51% for the day to close at 3,736, and reaching an intraday high of 4,625. This move is based upon an underlying recovery process that has been quietly gathering momentum since the lows, taking the market into a level where it deserves more of our attention.
In terms of the technical structure of this trend, what we are looking at is quite impressive indeed. From the lows in the area of 2,700-2,800 that occurred in the spring, cocoa has continued climbing higher in a stepwise fashion, with the EMA 9 and the EMA 20 providing the dynamic support through most of its advance. Each retracement phase ended with buying interest pushing prices back above these moving average lines instead of leaving them behind. This means that this is a true trend, not some kind of temporary one supported only by speculative money flows. At this point, the 200 EMA continues to be quite distant overhead, reflecting the memory of last year's collapse from well above 5,000.
And here we see the element of risk come into play. The RSI stands at 76, far enough past the overbought level, while the signal line lags behind at 57. It is a considerable difference, and when it comes to significant differences like these, it is a sign of either strong momentum that allows a prolonged period of staying overbought, or it means the market is about to reach its exhaustion point. But for now, the price does not show which one is happening. All we see is a flashing warning signal. As for the MACD, it still favors the bulls' side of the bargain. The MACD line is above the signal line and the histogram shows that the current move has more strength in it rather than losing steam, considering the recent breakout candle. However, it is important to note that the histogram is not in the area of extreme readings that was witnessed in late May during the most intense part of the rally.
The reason why this particular scenario is exciting, rather than just dangerous, is the environment it’s occurring in. It’s not an ongoing bull market in which quiet flows take things higher; it’s a market that has spent most of this year being very much out of favor, moving from above 5,000 to below 2,800 before turning around and rallying strongly enough to form a breakout candle that matters.
Trade Recommendation
Direction : Long
Entry horizon : 3,650–3,750 on any pullback toward the breakout zone
Primary target : 4,200
Secondary target : 4,600
Stop loss : 3,400
Technical scenarios
Breakout continuation : Price holds above the recent breakout zone near 3,700 and the RSI stays elevated without rolling over. This would suggest the market has genuine momentum and is willing to stay overbought while squeezing remaining shorts. Target the 4,200–4,300 area, the next zone of meaningful supply on this chart.
Cooling-off consolidation : Price stalls just above the breakout level and digests the move sideways for several sessions while the RSI eases back from 76 toward the high 50s/60s without price actually breaking down. This would be the healthiest scenario for the trend — momentum resetting without the structure being damaged.
Overbought reversal : Price fails to hold the breakout and rolls back below the EMA 9/EMA 20 cluster. That would be the first real sign that the RSI's overbought reading was warning of genuine exhaustion rather than simply strength, opening the door to a retest of the 3,300–3,400 region.
Long
Coffee CFD ($COFFEE) Update: Another 2RR Target Secured! Coffee CFD ( PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE ) Update: Another 2RR Target Secured! – Strategic Rejection at Upper LTB Signals Macro Bearish Continuation toward 22,000
### ☕ Coffee C CFD Daily Technical Matrix (Ref: COFFEE_2026-06-19_09-21-50.png)
Consistency is the core foundation of our framework at ChartPro Data. We are thrilled to announce that **our previous short-term trade study has officially captured its full 2RR take-profit target!** Following this precise structural completion, we are delivering an immediate tactical update as the commodity pivots at a crucial structural milestone.
Coffee C CFD is experiencing intense institutional selling pressure during today's session, plummeting **-3.39% to print at 26,595.3**.
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### 🔍 Structural Geometry & Multi-Line Rejection:
1. **The Upper Descending LTB Test:** The recent local counter-trend rally expanded directly into the dominant overhead Descending Trendline (the upper parallel red LTB line) defining the primary multi-month bearish channel.
2. **Moving Average Confluence Layer:** This diagonal boundary beautifully intersected with the dynamic resistance of the **72-period SMA (red line at 28,094.8)**. The price printed a sharp, high-volume rejection shadow precisely at this confluence node, validating a massive block of institutional supply orders.
3. **Macro Trend Dominance:** The broader, higher-timeframe trend remains heavily bearish, structurally anchored by price action sustained far below the institutional long-term **200-period EMA (purple line at 30,751.4)**.
---
### 📉 The Macro Road Map: Targeting the Channel Baseline
With the local counter-trend bounce now officially exhausted and rejected, the market sentiment points definitively toward a strong re-alignment with the master **MACRO trend**:
* **The Bearish Vector Acceleration:** The immediate order flow has flipped back to absolute sell-dominance (as modeled by our prominent downward red projection arrow).
* **The Ultimate Destination (22,000 Region):** The primary structural and mathematical target for this expanding downward wave sits at the lower parallel boundary of our macro channel. We project a steady leg down to sweep liquidity near the major historical support corridor around the **22,000.0** psychological level.
### Tactical Summary:
Chasing counter-trend longs in this environment is highly inefficient. The technical playbook favours managing short positions or utilising any minor local intraday pullbacks to position in favour of the macro trend, defining risk strictly above the recent rejection high near the 72 SMA.
---
📊 **ChartPro Data** | By Rogerio Zaglia
*Soft Commodities Architecture, Systematic Trend Re-Alignment & Mathematical Target Sourcing.*
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This technical update represents a personal trading framework and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Short 
Long 
Long
Cotton price breakout: $84.70 Resistance cleared! next $88.40Cotton is in consolidation, amid a contradiction arising from poor growing conditions globally and a cautiously optimistic macro environment. However, the floor that supports the prices of cotton is getting stronger for several reasons. Firstly, the closing off of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a 'Hormuz' logistics premium whereby the shipping of textile globally is being redirected through the Cape of Good Hope. Consequently, higher maritime insurance costs and the cost-of-deliver for the physical cotton have strengthened the floor for future cotton prices. Secondly, the high costs of energy due to the Middle East crisis are leading to input cost inflation, which increases the competitiveness of natural cotton compared to synthetics such as polyester. Thirdly, issues of Climate and Crop Quality are becoming a cause for concern, considering the poor weather conditions in the 'Cotton Belt' and the West African producing region.
In terms of the technical stance, there has been a dramatic shift from the wedge formation to an outright breakout of momentum. The price is trading well above both the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA lines, reflecting strong institutional conviction, as well as a buy the dip mentality. Nevertheless, RSI is quite high at 75.05, putting cotton in severe overbought territory. This is indicative of a market that is technically extended but which reflects an otherwise very strong trend.
Trade recommendation :
Direction : Long
Entry Zone : 83.50 – 84.90 .
Primary Target : 88.40 .
Secondary Target : 91.50
Stop Loss : 82.20 .
Bullish Push :
Conditions & Confirmation:RSI sustains above 70, confirmed by a price break above 84.50.
Expected Price Action: Late short positions are cleared, leading to a rapid surge toward the 88.40 price target.
Mean Reversion :
Conditions & Confirmation: RSI fails at the 75 level and turns downward, accompanied by a bearish daily close.
Expected Price Action: A healthy retracement is anticipated, pulling price back to the 81.50 support level and retesting the 20-dayEMA.
Consolidation :
Conditions & Confirmation: RSI exhibits sideways movement, constrained between 65 and 70.
Expected Price Action: Price digests recent gains, trading within the tight range of 82.00 to 84.00, preceding the subsequent major directional move.
Long 
Cocoa Target Smashed! Trading the $3,600 MoveGood news! We have blown away our primary objective of $3,250 as Cocoa moves even further to $3,296. This significant increase proves that macro-level supply constraints are just too much for normal technical barriers. In today’s video, I will explain why the Hormuz scenario is driving the prices sky high and show you how we are wisely handling our profits in our remaining runner positions.
In this video, we will talk about:
Target Reached : A summary of how we made the trade, starting from the initial breakout of $3,074.
RSI Indicator : Why we are holding off, despite the overbought conditions indicated by an RSI reading of 78.62. (Guess what? We’re not selling yet!)
Managing Profits : We are adjusting our protective barrier to $3,075. This means more profit!
Next Significant Price Level : Plotting the way to $3,600 and highlighting another significant price level for Cocoa.
Long
Cocoa price prediction: $3,074 breakout or RSI overbought trap?
The Cocoa market shows a big change in how people are feeling about the market, as the price is suddenly going up very fast. This means the price is breaking out of a low area it has been stuck in for several months. Two main things are causing this sudden jump: problems with shipping and delivery in the Middle East, and worries about the quality of the second harvest in West Africa because of unexpected weather.
Cocoa has moved from the stage of accumulation to one of strong momentum. The break out of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs was very conclusive as it happened on extremely high volume. Nonetheless, it should be noted that a caution flag has been raised by the RSI, currently trading at 74.40, indicating that the market is severely overbought, which might prompt a mean-reversion correction in the short run. Even though there is some technical over-extension, it should be highlighted that the rally is highly supported by fundamentals, especially the Hormuz Chokepoint geopolitical factor that is driving up global shipping rates.
Trade recommendation :
Direction : Long
Entry Zone : $2,950 – $3,075
Target : $3,250 (Primary) and $3,600 (Secondary)
Stop Loss : $2,840
Possible technical scenarios
Bullish trend
Trigger: RSI holds above 60. Price stays above $2,800.
Potential Outcome: Continued climb toward $3,600 as short-sellers are forced to cover.
Mean reversion
Trigger & Indicators: RSI rejects 70. Daily close below $2,750.
Potential Outcome: A tactical pullback to the $2,550 EMA cluster to shake out traders with no conviction.
Consolidation
Trigger : Price grinds sideways with narrowing daily ranges.
Potential Outcome: Market digests the strong bullish move, preparing for a breakout toward $3,500.
Long 
Long
Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup🍫 Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup
Direction: Long Bias
Contract: Cocoa (NY / ICE)
Current Price: ~7,437
🔍 Technical Setup
Price has been consolidating after the sharp run-up and has now pulled back into a key long-term trendline (yellow support).
A downtrend channel breakout is forming – if price clears this, it opens the door to a relief rally.
I’m looking for price to push back toward the 8,500–9,000 zone as a first target (previous structure resistance).
EMA cross (9 vs 19) is flattening, signaling potential shift in momentum.
📊 COT & Sentiment
Speculators remain net long in cocoa, reflecting continued bullish sentiment.
Commercials (hedgers) are still short, but that’s typical for producers – nothing extreme.
Fundamentals remain tight:
Black pod disease in Cameroon hitting yields.
Stockpiles in London/NY at multi-year lows.
Consumer demand holding up despite high prices.
This alignment supports a bullish recovery if technicals confirm.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Current levels around 7,400–7,500, scaling in on confirmation.
Target 1: 8,500 (previous resistance zone).
Target 2: 9,000+ if momentum extends.
Stop Loss: Below 7,000 to protect against breakdown.
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 setup.
⚠️ Risks
Stronger-than-expected supply recovery in Ivory Coast/Ghana.
Weak grind demand data (sign of demand destruction).
Speculators cutting long positions aggressively.
✅ Conclusion
Cocoa has pulled back into long-term support, with positioning and fundamentals still supportive of higher prices. If the descending trendline breaks, I’m positioning for a long swing toward 8,500–9,000.
This cocoa strategy has a profitability rate of 66% and average 9.4% gain on a long position. Long 
Orange Juice Futures (ICE) – Long Trade SetupDirection: Long Bias
Contract: Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (OJ / ICE US)
Current Price: ~268.95
🔍 Technical Setup
Price has found strong support around the 240–260 zone, aligning with long-term trendline support.
EMA20 is stabilizing, hinting at a potential shift in momentum after a sharp correction.
Structure suggests a rebound move with upside toward the 350–400 zone (previous support-turned-resistance).
Risk is clearly defined with support just below the recent lows.
📊 Fundamentals & Sentiment
Supply shock remains in play:
Brazil’s citrus belt is under severe strain from citrus greening disease (HLB), with nearly half of orchards infected.
2024/25 production fell to multi-decade lows, leaving Brazilian OJ stocks near “technical zero.”
Demand resilience: While high prices have pressured some consumers, global demand for NFC and premium juice has stayed firm.
Weather risk: Brazil’s 2025/26 crop outlook is uncertain — drought and heat remain threats.
🧾 COT Positioning
Speculators: Net long positioning indicates a bullish tilt, reflecting continued interest in upside exposure.
Commercials: Hedgers are active on the short side, but this is typical for producers locking in higher prices.
Interpretation: With speculators holding long exposure and commercials hedging into strength, the structure supports a bullish bias from a positioning standpoint.
🎯 Trade Plan
Strategy Stats: My long setups have a 70% win rate and average +11% gain.
Entry Zone: Current levels (~265–270) on confirmation of support holding.
Target 1: 350
Target 2: 400+ (if momentum extends)
⚠️ Risks
Strong rebound in Brazilian production (2025/26 season) could ease supply stress.
Demand destruction if consumers continue to balk at higher prices.
Large speculator long unwinds could trigger a sharp correction.
✅ Conclusion
With supply tightness, disease risk, and speculators maintaining long exposure, the Orange Juice market is primed for a bullish rebound from strong support. My system favors a long entry here, targeting 350–400, with a 70% historical profitability rate on similar setups. 
Long
Shady CORN Scheme: Bullish Plot or Market Trap?🌟 Ultimate CORN Heist Strategy: Swing Trade Plan 🌟
Greetings, Wealth Chasers & Market Mavericks! 🤑💸
Ready to pull off a legendary heist in the 🌽 CORN Commodities CFD Market? Our Thief Trading Style blends sharp technicals and fundamentals to craft a high-octane plan for massive gains. Follow the strategy below, stick to the chart, and aim to cash out near the high-risk Red Resistance Zone—an electrified level where overbought conditions, consolidation, or trend reversals could spark traps from bearish bandits. Let’s lock in profits and treat ourselves to the spoils! 💪🎉
📈 Entry Plan: Launch the Heist! 🚀
Wait for a breakout above the Moving Average at 4.5800 to ignite your long entry—bullish riches are calling!
Option 1: Set Buy Stop Orders just above the MA for breakout confirmation.
Option 2: Place Buy Limit Orders on a pullback to the most recent swing low/high within a 15- or 30-minute timeframe.
📢 Pro Tip: Set an alert on your chart to catch the breakout in real-time! ⏰
🛑 Stop Loss: Protect Your Loot! 🔒
For Buy Stop Orders, place your Stop Loss after the breakout confirms to avoid premature exits.
Thief SL Recommendation: Set at the recent swing low on the 4H timeframe (4.4300) for day/swing trades.
Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and number of open orders—play it smart! ⚠️
Feeling rebellious? Set your SL wherever you dare, but don’t blame us if the market bites back! 😎🔥
🎯 Target: Grab the Gold! 🏴☠️
Aim for 4.8000—take partial profits or exit fully before hitting this level.
Scalpers: Stick to long-side scalps. Got deep pockets? Jump in now. Otherwise, join swing traders for the full heist.
Use a trailing Stop Loss to lock in gains and keep your money safe. 💰
🌽 CORN Market Outlook: Why This Heist Works 🌟
The CORN CFD market is currently neutral but shows strong bullish potential, driven by:
📰 Fundamentals: Check macroeconomic data, COT reports, geopolitical events, and news sentiment for a full picture.
📊 Intermarket & Seasonal Analysis: Aligns with favorable positioning and future trend targets.
⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Position Management 🚨
Avoid new trades during major news releases to dodge volatility spikes.
Use trailing Stop Loss orders to secure profits and protect open positions.
Stay updated via reliable sources like Investing.com for real-time news impacting CORN prices.
💥 Boost the Heist! 🚀
Support our Thief Trading Style by hitting the Boost Button to amplify our robbery squad’s strength! 💪 Together, we’ll swipe profits effortlessly every day. Stay tuned for the next heist plan—more riches await! 🤑🐱👤
Let’s make this CORN heist legendary! 🌽💸🎉 
Long
Long
Long
Long 
Agriculture ETF DBA long term perspective... Decided to start looking at the Agriculture ETF, DBA.
Had been viewing it for years now since 2009, but it was in a long downtrend that never seemed to end, until it did in mid 2020.
With a fierce initial upside, and a stall in the previous months, it appears that there might be some retracement to about 18-20 levels, before a real launch.
Much is said about imminent food shortages, etc. over the past months, but the charts are not showing it... IF the chatter is before its time, and the reality comes much later, then the chart is showing that 2023 will hold the next leg up, and expected to be larger; which also means the problem is not going away, and efforts now to alleviate would only be temporal. What you need to know to trade wheat futures in 2022Fears of the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on global inflation and recession have escalated in recent weeks and another major issue looming over the horizon are concerns that the conflict could result in a hunger crisis as both countries account for over a quarter of the world’s wheat exports.
Wheat prices recently surged to a 14-year high, with the price of a bushel of wheat soaring more than 50% to $12.94 on Monday since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. The price movement on Monday hit the Chicago Board of Trade’s limit for another day.
Reliance on Russia and Ukraine wheat exports
Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s largest exporters of wheat, accounting for about 30% of the global total. In 2019, Russia was the world’s top wheat exporter, while Ukraine came in fifth next to the US, Canada and France, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
The disruption in both countries’ grain harvest and trade could have catastrophic impacts on their biggest buyers in the Middle East including Egypt, which depends on Ukraine’s wheat imports to produce subsidized bread to its poor population and other staples.
These fears intensified on Wednesday after the Ukrainian government said it will ban exports of key agricultural goods like wheat, corn, salt, meat and oilseeds to maintain market stability in Ukraine and “meet the needs of the population in critical food products.
Looming food shortage
Many nations rely on Ukraine and Russia for grain and oilseeds and the crisis could exacerbate the supply of food especially at a time when low-income countries are still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Some economists have warned that the war could lead to a repeat of the Arab Spring in the past decade when social unrest and armed rebellions led to soaring food prices.
"The fallout from Ukraine will spread across the globe. Russia and Ukraine together export 30% of the world's wheat. As this war heats up, many countries will face: soaring food prices, catastrophic hunger & growing instability,” David Beasley, the head of the United Nations World Food Program said.
Farmers in Russia and Ukraine are tipped to reduce their planting area in the coming seasons as the war intensifies, placing the pressure on other exporters to boost production.
China, India, US work to fill in the gap
Although Russia and Ukraine’s grain trade have not been technically included in sanctions imposed by Western countries, many importers have turned to other sources like China, India and the US to make up for any shortfalls, according to ING Bank, over fears of supply disruptions.
“We would expect to see strong plantings from US farmers over the spring, leaving the potential for an increase in US spring wheat, corn and soybean area,” ING’s head of commodities strategy, Warren Patterson, said in a note on Monday.
Volatility in wheat markets
The lingering crisis in Ukraine has caused wheat prices to be highly volatile in recent weeks as countries work to ensure grain imports to feed their population. The CBOT soft red winter wheat, KC hard red winter wheat and MGEX spring wheat all reached their daily trading limits for another day on Tuesday, while US wheat futures snapped a six-day winning streak the same day.
Investors have been hesitant in making big position moves for the second week in a row last week despite the market volatility, Reuters said.
In the week ended March 1, commodity funds axed only 11,000 futures and options contracts from their CBOT wheat net short, down from estimates, the news outlet reported earlier this week, citing data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
"Huge speculative interest has flowed into wheat that may have pushed futures past reasonable levels… The export market is difficult to define with many countries banning exports and tenders being canceled,” CHS Hedging was quoted by Bloomberg News as saying. W
Long
SoyBean (Central Bank Can't print Food)View On Soy Bean (19 Oct 2021)
We are seeing the potential bottoming in the soft-commodities and it is about go back UP higher.
For the starter, reclaiming the previous resistant of $1,280~$1,300 shall be easy.
We shall see further bullish signs soon.
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.
Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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Long 
Food prices to keep getting cheaper [+Photosynthesis tuto]Seems like an easy prediction.
With rising levels of CO2 agri prices will keep going down.
And I guess interest in soft commodity futures will keep going down.
Especially noobs, they could not care less, they want to chase the next high tech big thing that will make them rich, er typo I mean that will make them lose their shirt. Statistically they are better off playing lottery or going to the casino.
Until we run out of fertilizers (At current consumption levels, we will run out of known phosphorus reserves in around 80 years, but consumption will not stay at current levels). Unless we replace those by a new type of fertilizer OR find more phosphorus. Brace yourselves for yet a new mass hysteria clownery "the world will end soon because we will run out of phosphorus".
Remember "we will run out of water" "world will get overpopulated" "co2 will cause mass extinctions" "acid rains will destroy everything" and so on.
I think fertilizers support half of the planet population, this means they double yields.
And CO2 increased yields by something like 20% I think.
I can 100% guarentee without a single doubt there will be a "science settled very serious" mass hysteria fear about fertilizers (P) levels getting low in the future lmao.
This is what plants need:
Plants also need magnesium and sulfur. Not sure what else.
I think they can synthesize all vitamins from C H O N but I really don't know for sure. I just know those are the typical atoms in vitamins.
Expressed in dollars, the monetary benefit:
www.co2science.org
An extract:
I think that to produce 1kg of grain something like 100 liters of water is required.
Just because that's how it has been for centuries does not mean it is "normal".
If one is actually able to think out of his little box and little dogmas, he would realize agriculture uses huge amounts of water, and also, many plants (C4 type - not to be mistaken with the explosives) have even evolved to be more water efficient and to survive with very little CO2. I think also when you measure the CO2 around crops during the day you notice they sucked it all up (concentration is down a big amount maybe 50%).
So anyway, as CO2 goes up, plants will use less water (or use the same amount to grow bigger).
There is going to be possibly new plants evolve, the old world plants will make a comeback, and alot more but I'll save this for another idea.
The CO2 famine is over for plants they're going to take over.
Here is corn & sugar:
I don't know how agr companies work...
Better productivity means they get more productive? But prices drop so they make less?
They probably are undervalued right? At least compared to high tech for sure.
Of course this is all cancelled if primitive monkeys of abysmal stupidity remove CO2 from our atmosphere "to save the planet". 
Short
