Deeper look @ breakout setups.
Blindly selling Lows or buying Highs is a recipe for disaster in the long run.
But the right kind of buildup can legitimize a breakout (BO) entry. When a breakout failure (BOF) does NOT immediately make a strong move in the other direction, you've got to ask yourself -- has the power balance really shifted?
If not, it could just...
See chart for notes.
When a breakout failure DOESN'T immediately create a strong move, ask yourself who's really in control.
BOF's can create powerful moves, but early entrants can also be proved wrong really quickly. If they are, what does that do for your narrative?
Paper, some people still seem to use it..
annual report 28/09/18
Funnymentals - i dont normally look unless there is MONSTER DESPERATE VOLUME ACTION
current equity $136m
CASH $45M up 41%
profit after tax up 107%
EBIT up 63%
cash inflows up 174%
This is the sort of setup that will make your week, month, or even your year.
You know when you just "know" a setup is going to work?
Well, I'd like to stop "just knowing" and actually define this. Because this is the sort of thing, if you traded exclusively, you'd have ridiculous W% and R stats, and crazy growth.
Here's why this setup is GRADE A+:
Pretty simple -- if price drops through the green box, I'm looking for shorts on the 15m/H1 depending on the time of day.
NG doesn't move as nicely as more contracts, but you'll still see strong moves at the right areas. The more it compresses BEFORE attempting a breakout short, the more I like the trade idea.
See chart for summary.
I don't think the market has topped here, but I do think there's an opportunity for short term shorts to nail a momentum move down AFTER a fail at the zone. I included the EMA's here because they provide a good visual tool...a pullback to the 25 EMA + zone + price action fail....that's essentially what I'm looking for. Ideally I'd like to...
Pretty simply....we've attacked this level really inefficiently over the last couple of weeks. Since that big gap down, price re-filled the area, retested the volatility expansion area, and failed to recover up past the preceding wedge.
Bias is down, looking for setups on the H1.
Pretty simple, we're wedging at an important level. This is NOT a gimme setup because we're not really trending yet.
Let's watch for buildup at the level and see if we get naked attacks vs buildups....we'll have a better clue as to what's going to happen. Updates to follow!
This was the sequence I was waiting for all week.
Bears reclaim control with strength, the move slices through the entire zone, THEN price stalls....it's a beautiful thing.
Please refer back to the attached ideas/charts from earlier this week, you'll see my commentary. Specifically, it's the strength of the move through the level that put this pair back into...
See chart notes for why we're still in a Bearish shape and why I'm not looking for an entry anymore.
Yes, retests are nice areas to get in. No, I don't care for wide stops nor do I have the patience to sit through vague ideas finding clarity. We could easily come back down to the pink zone and then bounce back up.
D1 is hugely important for healthy analysis....
We've already seen a shift in power to the Bulls on a shorter term level. Now we're testing the original point of expansion, which is often a natural level for price to retest before resuming trend.
However, in this case Bulls are coming at the level with a LOT of power. I wouldn't make any trading decisions until either the red lines are cleared and retested to...
Tradingview won't let me post the timeframes I'd like to, so please do check out the 5m for a beautiful picture of the breakout failure @ A and the subsequent recovery + breakout @ B soon after.
Hit me up with any questions.