Yesterday, U.S. inflation came up in line with expectations, and the market continued to enjoy relief after last week’s route. However, while the FED is progressing in fighting soaring prices, many problems are still on the horizon (declining corporate profits, rising unemployment, the persistence of tight monetary policy, problems in the banking sector, etc.). As...
The S&P500 index may have been rejected yesterday following Powell's testimony on a possible need for stronger rate hikes but technically it has reached a level and formed a certain pattern that since the October Channel Up started, it has appeared 4 timed with a 100% success rate for rebounding to a Higher High. The Rising Support on the RSI is common on all...
The S&P500 index is having investors puzzled once more with the February correction as it turned the 1W technicals neutral again (RSI = 48.600, MACD = 4.420, ADX = 34.962). The price is under the 1W MA50 but the 1D MA100 is supporting along with the 1D MA200. Having made the Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200, it is obvious that in contrast to the Bear's Bearish...
when you see the bigger timeframes the main trend is downtrend. and on 30m TF the price actions gives the market signal to keep going down so I will put a short position and the target is the support level on 4H TF with reward 1:3. that is when the price break the 30m's up trend line. be careful and wait.
The price closed under the MA50 4H for the first time since January 9th. Similar Channel Up pattern in December led to a 0.786 Fibonacci correction. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on opening. Targets: 1. 3955 (above 0.786 Fibonacci) Tips: 1. A Double Bottom on the RSI 4H Buy Zone would be an excellent buy confirmation. Please like, follow and comment!!
S&P500 turned neutral on its 1D time frame (RSI = 51.591, MACD = 36.770, ADX = 21.671) after a Double Top formation pushed it on the February 10th Low. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up and as the RSI is printing a variance identical to the first 2 weeks of December that formed the top, we expect a similar decline to start, aiming at the bottom of the...
The S&P500 index remains neutral on the 4H time-frame (RSI = 54.250, MACD = 4.390, ADX = 29.647) and without any technical buying pressure, especially following the higher than expected CPI report today, may be have made a Double Top similar to December 13th. If the 4,200 Resistance breaks, we will buy and TP = 4,300 (under 4,330 August 16th High). Until then, we...
Yesterday brought another interesting trading session, with the market being very complacent before Jerome Powell’s speech. However, as soon as he walked on the stage at the Economic Club of Washington, the market rallied. In the early minutes of the speech, SPX jumped up approximately 1.20%. Although, once the FED’s chairman mentioned ongoing rate hikes in the...
targeting lower areas in the coming months. Market is likely to take a turn.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday. Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to hiking rates throughout the year, and, more importantly, he dismissed any prospects of rate cuts in 2023. Despite that, investors seem to ignore the FED’s rhetoric and try to fight it. In our opinion, the disconnect between reality and the market is...
The current week will bring a lot of exciting events for market participants. Several big corporations are set to disclose their earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022, and the release of important financial data (Dallas FED Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing, employment cost, CB consumer confidence, ADP employment change, etc.) is likely to give...
The S&P500 is about to form the first 1D Golden Cross since July 8th 2020. The Triangle pattern is holding and the price rebounded today on the MA200 1D. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the Support. 2. Sell candles near the Resistance but have to close below it. 3. Buy candles that close above the Resistance. 4. Sell candle that close below the Triangle. Targets: 1....
SPX is up 4.5% since the start of 2023 and 14.5% since its lows in October 2022. As a result, we are noticing an increase in calls for recovery and the beginning of a bull market. However, we are skeptical about these calls. With 2022 full-year results from U.S. banks, we now know their net profit decreased dramatically from the previous year; in the case of...
The S&P500 is rising while its RSI is declining. Technically the trend is losing stream. There is a clear Support Zone range 3880 - 3890 which we are looking for a pull back buy. If the Channel breaks first, instant buy to the 4095 - 4100 Resistance Zone. Please like, follow and comment!!
For most of the last year, we held a bearish bias on the U.S. stock market. Starting in 2023, we maintain this stance and expect the market to dive deeper into a recession, dragging the price of SPX much lower from the current level. In fact, before the third quarter 2022 earning season, we outlined that the corporate earnings would reflect the worsening economic...
Similarly to QQQ, SPX stays choppy, with market participants being overly bullish despite macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, we remain very cautious and dismiss calls about the stock market's bottom. With that being said, we would like to note that we will pay close attention to FED minutes today, which could potentially alter the current course in...
Despite our insistence on SPX moving to 3 500$ and 3 400$, it remains choppy between 3 700$ and 4 000$. With that in mind, we still have not changed our view and stay bearish on the index. We believe the market has not bottomed out yet, and there is much more downside in the future. Our thesis is based on the fact that the FED will continue to tighten monetary...
My system of trading just printed a sell signal for the S&P. Bearish engulfing candle on the 6 hour, Period 20 CCI pushed below 70 from above, period 5 hit below -130 signifying strong downward pressure. Not shown here, but a fib retracement drawn on the most recent move down on the weekly has the golden ratio(1.618) at around 3000 for a target. With FOMC...