Yesterday’s financial print in the United States indicated a 0.4% MoM and a 1.6% YoY rise in retail sales for April 2023. The data showed that industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM and 0.2% YoY during the same period. Business inventories shrank by 0.1% MoM, and manufacturing production jumped by 1% MoM (while showing a decline of 0.9% YoY). As this mix of...
Since April 2023, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has been going sideways, primarily fluctuating between $4,050 and $4,200. During this time, ADX has declined substantially on the daily time frame, reflecting the lack of a directional trend. We continue to be bearish on the index while waiting for a breakout from the narrow range.
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The S&P500 is on a tight 4H range with 4H technicals neutral (RSI = 47.011, MACD = 1.690, ADX = 20.555) inside the Megaphone pattern. By Tuesday we should see a 4H Death Cross completed, which even though technically bearish, it made a short term rebound on the last two occurencies. As long as S1 holds, we will target the top of the Megaphone (TP = 4,220). If the...
Following the last FOMC meeting, notable developments in the stock market took place. First, volatility increased significantly among regional banks, seeing shares of companies like PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance, Metropolitan Bank, and Home Street plunging by high double-digits. These declines, however, did not last long, and financial institutions recovered...
The S&P500 failed to cross over the 4195 Resistance (1) and the rejection pulled the price back to the MA50 (1d).
In the process, a Megaphone pattern has emerged and today's decline hit its bottom.
This is a strong short term buy signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell if it closes a 1d candle under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 4195...
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has been eagerly anticipated by investors as the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. While this move is intended to combat high inflation, it will significantly impact the (already fragile) U.S. economy and have far-reaching implications for both businesses and consumers. One of the most...
The S&P500 crossed under the 4H MA100 today and is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern on extremly bearish 4H technicals (RSI = 37.236, MACD = -4.910, ADX = 58.125).
This is a sell signal especially if the price rebounds now and gets one last rejection on the 4H MA50. A similar pattern formed the February High. We are targeting S1 initially (TP1 = 4,050) and if...
The S&P500 is testing the Rising Support of the Channel Up pattern.
It is doing so inside a dashed Channel Down, which can also be a Bull Flag.
As long as the price closes over the Rising Support, buy and target 4215 (Fibonacci 1.5).
If it closes under it, sell and target 4050 (4hour MA200).
Previous chart:
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S&P500 is inside a Channel Up, similar to January, both within the great Channel of December.
As long as the 4hour MA100 holds, target 4250 (under the large Channel Up top).
If the 4hour MA100 breaks and makes a daily close under it, sell and target 3920 (over Support A).
Previous chart:
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Bad financial data for the U.S. market continues to stack up. This week, we saw a slump in ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 51.2 (from the previous figure of 55.1) and ISM manufacturing PMI to 46.3 (from 47.7 in the preceding print). In addition to that, we also saw that factory orders declined by 0.7% (MoM) in February 2023, and JOLTs job openings fell below 10...
Before the previous meltdown in stocks, in early February 2023, we warned that investors were trying to fight the FED, breaking the cardinal rule of Wall Street. With the recent rebound in SPX and people trying to call FED’s bluff (again), this trend seems to continue. Today, so much anticipated FOMC meeting is here, and central bankers are expected to increase...
The S&P500 is testing February's LH trendline again for the first time since March 6th on strong bullish 4H tech (RSI = 64.370, MACD = 14.890, ADX = 34.844). This is also where the 0.5 Fibonacci level is and right over it the 4H MA200. We will target R1 if the LH breaks (TP1 = 4,080) and R2 (TP2 = 4,160) as long as the 0.618 holds upon re-test.
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The S&P500 made the first rebound on the bottom of the Channel Up.
Breaking over the MA50 (4h) has confirmed the short term bullish sentiment.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy this pull back as close to the bottom of the Channel as possible.
Targets:
1. 4000 short term (under the MA200 (4h)).
2. 4220 long term (top of the Channel Up and +11.00% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD...
his is not one of our usual analyses but we found a pattern that Bitcoin and S&P500 shared in the past and may replicate in the future now that the Bull Cycle has restarted.
Based on this the first target for both of them when the get out of a Bear Cycle is Fibonacci 2.0 from the last High before the final selloff.
For Bitcoin that target is 64000 and for the...
S&P500/ SPX has been on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows in the past 3 days, forming a bullish reversal exactly on the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up.
The RSI is very similar to the previous bullish leg in January.
Buy and set Target A at 4050 (Fibonacci 0.618 within Channel Zone 0.5 - 0.618) and Target B at 4280 (Fibonacci 1.236 extension and top of the Channel...
Yesterday, U.S. inflation came up in line with expectations, and the market continued to enjoy relief after last week’s route. However, while the FED is progressing in fighting soaring prices, many problems are still on the horizon (declining corporate profits, rising unemployment, the persistence of tight monetary policy, problems in the banking sector, etc.). As...
The S&P500 index may have been rejected yesterday following Powell's testimony on a possible need for stronger rate hikes but technically it has reached a level and formed a certain pattern that since the October Channel Up started, it has appeared 4 timed with a 100% success rate for rebounding to a Higher High.
The Rising Support on the RSI is common on all...
The S&P500 index is having investors puzzled once more with the February correction as it turned the 1W technicals neutral again (RSI = 48.600, MACD = 4.420, ADX = 34.962). The price is under the 1W MA50 but the 1D MA100 is supporting along with the 1D MA200.
Having made the Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200, it is obvious that in contrast to the Bear's Bearish...
