Yes another Lower Low on the Channel Down with yet another Support level broken. The index has now two natural Resistance levels, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is unbroken since January 13. The CCI seems to have bottomed. Assuming that, at least for this phase of the Ukraine - Russia war, things won't escalate over the...
The last break-out trading plan I posted for S&P500 worked out well enough as it failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), so no longs taken, but it successfully broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the break-out signal for shorting: If you took that sell, it may be a good idea to book the respectable profits gained now, despite...
I won't use too many words here as the charts is pretty much self explanatory. This is the S&P500 index today (on the left from 2018 to 2022) and the build up to the dotcom crash (1996 - 2000). I approach this symmetrically with 1997 and 2018 being the start of a highly volatile period where the RSI on the 1W time-frame started trading under Lower Highs i.e....
Ever since the COVID recovery started, both the S&P500 index and the WTI Oil, have followed similar courses, especially since the start of 2021. There is a very interesting pattern of divergence and convergence, which the two follow on a consistent basis. As this chart on the 1D time-frame shows, when S&P500 (blue trend-line) diverges from the shared upward path...
S&P500 has recovered more than 50% of January's strong correction as today the price hit again the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. If it doesn't break, this is on the short-term a Double Top as the same High was made there on February 02. Technically, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) now comes in play as it is the major Resistance of this recovery attempt while...
S&P500 broke again above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) today after making a strong rebound at a level (4220) not seen since June 22 2021. This has certainly restored the bullish sentiment on the short/ medium-term but there is a key Pivot Zone to consider within 4500 - 4550 that acted as Support/ Resistance on three prior occasions. With the 1W RSI also...
This is the S&P500 index on the 1W time-frame (on the log scale). The recent sell-off (-12% so far) is leaving many wondering what is happening and rightly so as it broke below the very strong bullish pattern (Higher Highs/ Higher Lows) since the November 2020 U.S. elections. As I looked more closely into it though by running past regression models, I found that...
S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again yesterday and by doing that, it reached the Higher Lows trend-line of the 12-month Channel Up that started in December 2020 just after the U.S. elections rally. That is a strong technical Support and based on the 1 year price action, the index has most likely priced its bottom. If not I give one max extension (even...
S&P500 has made a strong rebound yesterday (big wick on the 1D candle) after reaching exactly as low as both the Higher Lows trend-line (dashed line) of December 03 and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). This is a Double Support Event. The 1D RSI at the same time made a Double Bottom similar to previous bottom formation sequences within the 2021 Channel Up and is...
I haven't updated my SPX outlook every since predicting that perfect buy on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) on December 20: Right now a new (short-term this time) opportunity arises as the index hit today its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The chart above (1D time-frame) shows that, on this Channel Up that held for the whole 2021, after every 1D MA100 bottom, the...
On this analysis I compare the S&P500 index' price action from the post March 2020 crash against the period of January 2013 - December 2015. The reason is the one thing those two have in common: the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) eras. As the chart shows, the two sequences has been fairly similar as they started by posting strong growth on the basis of...
My most recent S&P500 idea was a short-term one on the 4H time-frame, where I called for a pull-back and then rebound to 4740: The target has been hit but the latest pandemic news were used as the catalyst for a new, deeper pull-back. I am switching back to the 1D time-frame where the index has just hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again, for the first...
This is a short-term update on the 4H time-frame which I rarely use for S&P500 on my November 30 idea: As you see on that recent post, the 1D MA50 worked well once more in catching the correction within the multi-month Channel Up and the index has been rebounding strongly this week. This long-term Channel has worked very well at identifying tops as well: ...
It is time to update our perspective on the S&P500, which we last analyzed a week ago when we called the exact market top on November 22: As you see the index got rejected that day and corrected instantly, which based on our analysis is a much needed technical correction in accordance with the long-term pattern of the 2021 Channel Up on the 1D...
This is a quick update to the S&P500 analysis posted 10 days ago: As the plan suggested, the index continued to slowly rise just below the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the 2021 Channel Up, following the late April/ early May fractal. Right now this is about to get completed, meaning that S&P may be ahead of a short-term technical correction towards the...
This is a simple yet very interesting chart illustrating the Nasdaq-to-S&P500 ratio since the 1980s. As you see after a price stabilization in the 1980s, the ratio started to rise but steadily within a Channel Up since 1998. That was when the tech index (Nasdaq) took off fueled by the dot.com mania on a 2 year rally that eventually led to the dot.com crash of...
S&P500 has been trading inside a straightforward Channel Up since the start of the year. It recently (November 05) hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel and pulled back, however today is posting a respectable rebound. According to a similar fractal in late April, it is possible to extend this rise just below the top of the Channel Up for some more...
The WAE is pointing down The Vortex5 is showing that the bulls are very volatile but the bears are in a dip buy right now and in a few day to weeks there is going to be another pull back. Not sure what the % is but there will be one.