Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target: At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100...
Dow Jones (DJI) hit the 38050 Target that we set on our last bearish call (March 28, see chart below) and broke below Support 1 (February 13 Low) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line): The price now faces more selling pressure being below two MA periods and with the long-term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 bottom), having considerable downside to...
Nasdaq (NDX) is on the pull-back process, a correction that we called on our March 12 idea (see chart below) when the index reached the top of its 1 year Channel Up: Even as recently as last week (see chart below) we called for the ideal sell entry and set a 17500 Target: As you can see, the index emphatically broke and closed below the 1D MA50 (blue...
On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the...
DAX has a rejection on April 01 exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 18-month Channel Up (since October 03 2022). The 1D MACD made a Bearish Cross, being Lower High than the previous one on December 18 2023, which is exactly what happened on the January 27 2023 Bearish Cross. That sequence was the first Bullish Leg that topped to form the Channel's...
A lot of talk is being done lately on whether the S&P500 index (SPX) has maxed now that it made new All Time Highs (ATH) or it is in need of a strong correction etc. Those who have been following us for long here, know that in times like this, we like to keep a long-term perspective and give you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. Along those lines, we...
Nasdaq (NDX) marginally broke and closed a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week but quickly recovered on Friday and this week has established its price action above it. Still it is under Lower Highs following the March 21 Double Top. It is a fact that the 1D MA50 hasn't been broken in 5 months (since November 03 2023) so last week is the first...
Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent sell entry following our last analysis (March 28, see chart below) as it got rejected and made a bearish reversal exactly where we expected it to: Last Thursday it even broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in exactly 5 whole months (since November 03 2023)! This is a bearish break-out confirmation...
The S&P500 index (SPX) came extremely close to hitting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in 5 months (since November 02 2023)! As you realize, this is a key Support for the uptrend and the Channel Up in particular, which has been the dominant pattern these months to drive the index to High after High. The fact that the price is...
Nasdaq has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since late January and as you can see on the chart, every time the Bullish Leg held the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) halfway (blue ellipse), the price continued the uptrend for a +5% Higher High. This time, the index closed a 4H candle below the 4H MA50, for the first time before a Higher Highs was priced. It is...
Russell 2000 (RUT) finally hit our 2140 Target, which we called for on our last pull-back and buy signal (December 28 2023, see chart below): Even before that signal, we caught the ideal bottom buy for a full bullish swing: At the moment the situation is different as the index is on full bullish technicals, having hit the 2140 Resistance which was formed...
Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up, while at the same time holding the Inner Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Support is getting increasingly weak as it is now on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the closest it has been to the price action since the the November 2023 break-out. Technically this is as...
Hang Seng (HSI1!) is trading within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Down and as long as the 1D MA200 holds as a Resistance, we will continue selling every Lower High. The structure of the pattern is similar to the 2021/22 Channel Down. Once the 1D MA50 breaks again, we will have a confirmed sell...
Nikkei (NI225) has given us one of the best long-term trades last year (May 26 2022, see chart below), as we gave a signal for the most optimal buy entry one could expect, on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 it has now surpassed 40000: The question is obvious: what do we do from here, especially after the remarkable...
The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) gave us an excellent bottom buy opportunity on November 03 2023 (see chart below) easily hitting our 21000 target and transitioning into a longer term Channel Up: Right now the index is coming off the strongest 1W red week since October 23 2023, the first pull-back after a series of 4 straight green weeks. This week will complete a...
In the infamous words of Mark Twain, we are analyzing today the S&P500 index (SPX) on the long-term 1W time-frame. This is a cyclical perspective obviously, attempting to find similarities between past and present price action, in anticipation of projecting the trend in the near future. As you can see, the index is replicating quite closely the 1W price action...
This is an update to our analysis 3 months ago (December 18 2023, see chart below) where we called for a Resistance bullish break-out and buy on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) contact: Even though the pull-back dipped some more, the index still followed our projection on a rough scale. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up but due to some relative...
The S&P500 (SPX) broke on Friday below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which isn't yet a bearish confirmation as it has done so numerous time within December's Channel Up pattern. What would be a sell signal though, is getting rejected and fail to close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50 again. We will then look for the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and target Support 1...