S&P500 Testing the 4H MA50. Rejection or bullish breakout again?

The S&P500 (SPX) broke on Friday below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which isn't yet a bearish confirmation as it has done so numerous time within December's Channel Up pattern. What would be a sell signal though, is getting rejected and fail to close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50 again. We will then look for the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and target Support 1 at 5050, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level along with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will provide the first Zone of Support for the short-term.

If however the index does close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, then the Channel Up pattern should continue and in that case we will buy and target 5185 (Resistance). Note though that the 4H RSI is trading within a Channel Down since the February 23 High, almost 1 month, which is a major Bearish Divergence against the price's Channel Up.


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