Stocks have begun July with a whimper so far, maintaining a very narrow range after selling off from the 3900's. We have found support in the mid 3700's, but appear to be forming a bear flag pattern. Volatility has consolidated which may portend a breakout. If so, we could make a run for the 3900's again, with 3825 and 3937 likely targets to the upside. If we...
Stocks pressed lower as we anticipated yesterday. The S&P 500 was hanging on by a thread yesterday at 3825, and sure enough, support caved, and we were able to test lower levels. We crossed a vacuum zone to find support at 3758. We currently appear to be finding support there, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If support does not hold here, we...
Stocks took a dive from the high 3900's. We identified 3909 as a likely target in the previous report, and a brief rally was able to hit this target and then some, coming just shy of the 4000 handle, and retracing just shy of a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from the 4000's back in early June. We have since retreated to support at 3825, which is a...
The S&P 500 has steadily risen, though this rally looks very weak. We have gredually made higher highs, and are currently encroaching upon a relative high at 3825. The Kovach OBV appears quite bullish, which could indicate there is more in the tank for stocks. If we are able to breakout further, we could solidify the mid 3800's, with 3909 a likely ceiling. ...
The S&P 500 has continued to range establishing an upper bound at 3792, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have been edging up with higher lows, and volatility has consolidated suggesting we are gearing up for a breakout. The Kovach OBV is still pretty bullish, suggesting a bullish divergence and possible bull breakout. If so, we must clear 3825 before...
Its been a interesting May but not shocking in anyway , I have been covering this downtrend all year and talked about the crash in May 2022 months before. Published January 2022 Published March 2022 How did I pinpoint May 2022 for this move? keep reading. First lets go over the chart and possible move from here , so been playing around with this Gann Fan...
Pinpointing the cycle bottom is pretty much impossible but we will give it a go anyways. This Gann Fan you see on the chart has had amazing reactions in the past : 1. Covid crash bottom hit 8/1 Gann perfectly 2. Covid weekly candles closing on 3/1 Gann 3. Price hovering over 2/1 Gann before starting the bullrun. Amazing reactions last couple of years so...
Stocks have taken a dive, off renewed recession fears. We anticipated resistance at highs, and if you recall from yesterday, we surmised that if momentum was insufficient to break the relative highs at the time, a dump was likely. That is exactly what happened. We were barely able to peak above 3758, but failed to test the next level at 3792. Subsequently, we...
The S&P 500 has gradually trended up, suffering from low liquidity and thin trading from the holiday yesterday. We are encroaching upon the lows of the value area from last week. The small uptrend appears weak, and if we don't see momentum come through at the open, then we will surely dump to lower levels, with 3676, 3658 or 3645 likely targets. If we are able...
Stocks appear to have bottomed for now, forming a bull wedge consolidation pattern at lows. The level 3624 appears to be a hard lower bound for now. We are due for a relief rally, as stocks are broadly oversold. If so, 3825 is a likely ceiling, as it is a relative high from last week. However, the value area between 3714 and 3792 seems a reasonable target if...
The S&P 500 dipped further, breaking through to the high 3600's, before a brief retracement attempted to reestablish the 3700's. At the time of this writing, we are currently wavering at 3700 exactly. The Kovach OBV is flattening out suggesting that we will not see much more action until momentum comes through. It is likely we will range at some point to...
The FOMC event did little to appease the stock market yesterday. To combat inflation at 40 year highs, the Fed raised interest rates by 75bps, the largest hike since 1994 . This was largely priced in and we saw a brief relief rally in equities, which was quickly faded, and we have since broken support to establish new relative lows. The level 3714 was our last...
The Mayer Multiple has officially turned black! Let's go over how rare this signal truly is! October 2011 / 85days - Price 2.13 Dollars January 2015 / 9days - Price 178 Dollars December 2018 / 11days - Price 3300 Dollars Average of 35days with 2011 included without 2011 we talking about 10days average , this is by far the rarest...
Its very rare for the nas100 to be oversold like this on the 4hour last 7 years we have a couple of moments that resulted in average moves of 9.8% to the upside. 3.72% January 2015 13.71% August 2015 6.30% September 2016 15.58% March 2018 Average 9.8% SL - 11200 TP- 12000
Not posted a TA about gaps in years , not traded a gap in years , once we blasted off in December 2020 and hit 50k range I thought no chance we fill the two gaps (yellow circles) , gaps are a thing of the past no longer get filled..... 536 days later we fill the 25k to 27k gap and no we have one more gap to fill at 18.3k , this could be the bottom filling this...
Now, I am not dubbed the Nostradamus of Bitcoin or Crypto. I have had some pretty farfetched ideas for short and long term ideas. However, I see a few different (Most likely wrong) possibilities for Bitcoin in the short - medium term: I have 2 different "Bullish" and 2 different "Bearish" scenarios to get wrong! Bullcase 1 (blue opaque line): This could be a...
Today we shall give a go at timing the Bitcoin cycle once more. This year I have been correct in my perspective going as far back as January 2022. I had been eyeing the Bitcoin cycle bottom in May , check it out below. Even executing the best trade of my career yet, riding that short down straight into capitulation. It's been a good year so far so the...
Stocks have finally broken out of the range they have been holding since the end of May. The S&P 500 has remained confined between 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern, and 4214. The neckline of the inverse H&S is a strong technical level and the fact that we have broken down past it is not a good sign for stocks. We found support...