Weekly Forex Forecast: GBPUSD Is Indicating Strength! GBPUSD had a strong close to last week. This led to a bullish BOS on the Daily TF, in the Weekly -FVG. I expect there to be a short term reaction to the imbalance, and then a resumption of the bullish momentum at the bullish FVG on the Daily TF.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Support and Resistance
What is Bitcoin ‘Pairs Trading’? (Example: ETH/BTC)This is for anybody who wants to sell some Bitcoin but is still bullish crypto. 🚀
It’s also if you’re neutral on crypto but think Bitcoin is overvalued vs other tokens.
It’s also just if you’re just interested to see a way to apply a pairs trading strategy .
In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, Bitcoin just broke over $100k - No more waiting for the HODLRS!!
Naturally after hitting this massive milestone, some traders are going to be thinking about taking profits. And if they’re thinking it, some of them are going to be doing it.
But let’s forget about selling for a moment, are you really buying more BTC when it just hit $100k and it's up ~150% this year?
So even if there is not more active selling interest, there’s probably less buying interest.
I think you’d be mad (or very brave) to bet against Bitcoin. BUT
Are these scenarios possible?
Bitcoin trades sideways for a while after hitting $100k
Alt season kicks in and other cryptos play catchup
If you think yes to at least one of these, my team and me have been looking at a pairs trade
What is pairs trading?
Pairs trading in crypto is a market-neutral trading strategy that involves taking a long position in one cryptocurrency and a short position in another, based on the assumption that their historical price relationship will revert to the mean.
The point is to profit from the relative price movement between the two assets, i.e. not the absolute ups or downs of one asset like Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC
I put this crypto pair this way around - I’m not sure if you’re meant to - it just kind of reminds me of EUR/USD in forex trading.
So as a reminder, ETH/BTC is Ethereum’s token Ether priced in Bitcoin. When Ether outperforms Bitcoin it goes up and when Ether underperforms Bitcoin, it goes down.
So it doesn’t actually matter if Bitcoin goes up, down or sideways, if you’re trading ETH/BTC - what matters is what one does relative to the other.
Well this thing has been going down a lot! Until recently.
Going back to the idea of pairs trading - the thesis here is that the Ethererum/Bitcoin price ratio has dropped to bargain levels and could be about to recover.
I’m not going to lie to you - there are a lot of sore hands out there from trying to catch this falling knife!
But this rebound off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-21 rally has caught our attention.
Dropping to the daily chart, can you see how 0.4000 has acted like a magnet to the price both from above and below?
0.4 is our line in the sand for long positions.
Equally, our risk is well defined in this setup. A drop back under the 61.8% Fib level around 0.32 means the idea isn’t working and it's time to get out and let Bitcoin do its thing!
How to trade it
Specific entries and exits depend on your personal risk tolerance, but broadly there are THREE methods here:
1. Crypto-to-Crypto Spot Trading
Trade ETH directly for BTC (or vice versa) on a cryptocurrency exchange. This is straightforward and involves holding the actual assets.
2. CFD Trading (Contracts for Difference)
Speculate on ETH/BTC price movements using CFDs without owning the underlying cryptocurrencies. This allows for leverage and the ability to short-sell.
3. Spread Trading
Buy ETH and simultaneously short BTC (or vice versa) with equal dollar value to profit from their relative price movement while minimizing exposure to overall market trends.
But that’s just how we are seeing things?
Do you think this is bananas, or could we be onto something?
Please let us know in the comments
Cheers!
Jasper. Chief Market Analyst, Trading Writers
GOOGL - Making sense of the market's multi-time frame objectivesApologies for the bad recording quality here - but this is key toward "zooming out" and realizing how much is really happening on higher time frames in the market - when we get zoomed in to one small move or leg of an uptrend or downtrend, it leaves us vulnerable to sudden moves against us - because we were stuck in LTF tunnel vision.
So you see here how I have a bias toward short, but that is on a HTF and requires LTF work and liquidity building to make the HTF objective possible
Happy Trading :)
A Liquid Supply and Demand Analysis on GOOGLWhat we're trying to do as traders is identify what the market is setting up for us and why its setting up that way - that will tell give us insight into what could and should happen from there based on the chart's "story" of:
1. Where are the HTF and LTF liquidity levels and supply and demand zones i.e. where are the buyers and sellers located and who needs to gather more steam before moving in the direction they want. (In a long term uptrend, buyers are constantly picking up steam by allowing a relaxed and controlled selloff and building liquidity at steadily more accepted prices and setting up support at higher and higher levels. Sellers would be allowing for healthy pullbacks (controlled buying and liquidity building) to set strong resistance levels at previously broken support levels (sell orders) at those controlled pullbacks) - Hence the higher highs/higher lows of an uptrend and lower lows/lower highs of a downtrend - It is just a bunch of supply and demand levels being created and broken within higher time frame supply and demand levels - Until enough liquidity is built on the LTF so that the HTF levels can be broken.
2. What does the "why" tell us - Who is in control of building the liquidity and why are we doing it this way or what about the way that it is getting built can we decipher where it may need to go. (With confirmations, we are given indications as to whether the HTF move that we want to trade is actually happening or if it's just continuation of the LTF liquidity build. This is where our algorithms come in handy because they are the market's guide to where the liquidity lies (you'll see that on breaks of trend lines, we make a big move because we're grabbing all the liquidity that was built up within the trend line that were now break out of. This in addition to the control algorithm which is guiding the "fair price" to get back in off the pullback and liquidity build and also syncs neatly with former support and resistance levels created.
3. Utilizing Multi-TF-Analysis, we can identify subsequent moves based on the available liquidity levels that were created (purposely) and look for confluence between S&D levels and created and controlled liquidity built.
Our toughest job as traders (analysis and execution wise) is to see all this information and put it into a multi-dimensional story that we can always be in the know and understanding of what's happening within our story so as to not get bogged down by liquidity building or indecision. The real challenge and key comes in deciphering each time frame's analysis in a top-down approach (longer term --> shorter term) so that we are ahead of the right move and not a part of the "controlled liquidity build" but rather of the side that is in control on the time frame that we're actually executing on. (An example of what I mean would be going long on GOOGL here as if the current shorter term bull-trend has built enough liquidity and set enough strong support and leaving out the HTF information such as supply above and demand below which was based on the HTF story).
I know this might seem confusing but if you start plotting this out visually on your own and reason with why price is doing what it's doing at certain levels (VOLUME).
Really hope this was helpful for anything looking to deeper their understanding of how liquidity is identified, why it is built, and how we can utilize this information in order to tell the chart's story and essentially see the roadmap ahead.
Happy Trading all :)
LINK | BULLISH ALTS | More Increases IF we see THISLink has recently increased over 160% - and that's an excellent increase in 3 weeks, let's take a moment to appreciate this and not be greedy!
Although it would have been most ideal to see LINK back up at ATH prices, more increases are on the cards BUT FIRST we need to reclaim a major resistance zone.
Here's my overview on Altcoins - specifically Altseason - at the current moment. Find it here :
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BINANCE:LINKUSDT
SHIBA INU - Basic market movements tell us an entire storyThis chart emphasizes the technical analysis that fuels the market - by identifying liquidity levels and areas of clear support and resistance we can see clearly what both buyers and sellers need to do on a LTF in order to achieve their HTF goals and reach their targets. Both sides want to go in their respective directions however both sides need to give up rope against them in order to continue in their direction -
So the question is: who is giving up slack to who and on which time frame? We can assume in an uptrend that buyers are giving slack to the sellers (price moving down on a LTF) so that more buyers can step in and move price up on a HTF. We can surmise that that's what is happening on this chart when we see sustained bullish movement and controlled pullbacks toward new demand. In addition, the intentional creation of resistance and liquidity (cup N handles) prove this on a deeper more back-end level.
Happy Trading :)
ROKU breakout and a common theme we can translate into CELHI projected this resistance zone to flip after a deep-dig demand zone grab a few weeks ago. What I was looking for for confirmation was the LTF zone that we broke through 2 days ago to turn into support - and that's exactly what happened. I used that zone yesterday to enter calls knowing that we've done a good amount of liquidity building, buyers are present below, and we have HTF supply that we want to reach and start shaking sellers out of.
Utilizing this trade idea and ensuing breakout, we are looking at the current CELH chart and identifying a similar pattern and opportunity creating itself as we speak. Will look to play that the same way I played ROKU.
Happy Trading :)
CELH - A deeper dive into the obvious signsWe are seeing basic market dynamics at work here on Celsius - clear return to HTF support and healthy patterns created in a LTF and HTF Cup N Handle.
Volume as always is super important toward identifying where the actual support and resistance lies and the deeper knowledge of what it means to build a resistance level in order to then break it to propel us further will go a long way in identifying good trade opportunities.
As I mentioned in my post earlier, we are looking to flip this LTF zone (currently in the works) into a pocket of buyers that the market can tap into for a more sustained push toward HTF supply.
Happy Trading :)
RBLX - LTF liquidity being built for a neckline breakWe see this HTF supply zone that we've been rejecting off of and creating LTF liquidity for a deeper demand grab.
Essentially sellers are setting up for a push below the $48 neckline - to bring new buyers in for a potential HTF break of $55. We go down, to go further up. Right now, sellers are driving price up in order to add to our seller pool and bring price further down.
Looking for confirmations of rejection and selling volume to enter shorts here.
Happy Trading :)
CAR - Setting up strong for a test of HTF supply zoneCAR dug deep to the $80 demand range to subsequently make the push toward strong HTF resistance at the $120 range.
Right now looking for LTF demand zones to add to my long position to catch this push up.
Current entries are looking at $105.50 & $102 for a strong reaction
Happy Trading :)
Will Daily/4Hr Supply HOLD this week or will Buyers Break Them?CME_MINI:MNQ1!
'2025 For a gr8ter reward we must go to the valley to Conquer' -500KTrey
Yo family in this video I have gone into Gr8t Detail as to what I'll be looking for this week when it comes to MNQ.... The #1 Question is, 'Will Daily/4Hr Supply HOLD this week or will Buyers Break Them?'
A few things to notice on the 4Hr TF, We are riding this current ascending eR/LQ Trendline to the upside that has yet to be swept with full commitment from sellers. 2) We closed above the weekly resistance level ($20872.00) but just slightly underneath Major Key Level $21K. All of these key components need to be taken into extreme consideration. Will Sellers Defend their Positions @ $21K and establish the stronger hand? All to be determined here this week!
We Have a 4Hr High ($21081.25) that I believe is being targeted. Now all I'm going to do is wait for a HTF Mitigation and a LTF Entry Confirmation... Pro trend Set Up is Full Size Risk> Counter Trend Set Up is Lesser Risk...
Remember Our Profession to Manage the downside costs of Printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently....
Let's be patient for the High Probable Set Ups in NY session ONLY!!! #500K
XRP - PUMP and DUMP SchemeThis is the moment that bag holders have been waiting for - XRP has crossed the $2 mark in an unexpected pump scheme.
Through the Fibonacci, we can establish likely short term targets , being the 1.618 Fib level.
XRP is notorious for hard dumps after the pump, so do be mindful of this possibility and remember that it is an extremely unpredictable, high risk altcoin.
Here's my take on Bitcoin, incase you are wondering what to watch for BTC:
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BINANCE:XRPUSDT
I'm Back! Let's simplify things... GOOGL AnalysisI like to dumb things down with my students sometimes. All the algorithms won't help without the basic understanding of liquidity and supply and demand.
In this video I try my best to outline how supply and demand works in the market and how we can see it at work at any point in the chart and on any time frame - in order to identify who is stronger at any given point and where we can see movement coming from.
Essentially, if sellers are stronger at a given level, price will need to come back down to areas where buyers are present. They will then try and break out of that selling level and will do it successfully if they have more buyers than sellers from that liquidity build (adding more buyers at lower prices). If they don't have enough, they will have to continue this process of digging deeper (controlled selling) which, although price is technically moving down, it is doing so in order to add more buyers to then break out of a strong level of resistance above.
I hope to check in with you all more often in the near future and I appreciate you all sticking with me during this time of transition!
Happy Trading all
Bitcoin tends to falter the day after ThanksgivingThe 124k target remains in play overall, but for now I suspect the shakeout from its 100k milestone has more to offer bears. And while bitcoin prices are showing a nice breakout from a flag pattern on the 1-hour chart, bulls should take note that today (the day after Thanksgiving) tends to be a bearish day on average. And that could make any moves towards 100k tempting for bears to fade into over the near term.
MS
Do bulls really want to be long the S&P 500 ahead of a breakout?S&P 500 future are tantalisingly close to a record high. So close in fact, it would be rude not to print one. Yet I am skeptical it will simply hold on to (and extend) any such gains without at least a shakeout first, and bulls may be better to wait for a dip. Comparing the S&P 500 to Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures, I explain why.
MS.
Coffee Tuesday this is a quickie on coffee since it's very close to its all-time high and it looks like a setup that will sooner or later start going lower. I explained some of the details looking at the tools we like to use.... and I am willing to take a chance that the market will range and if it doesn't that's okay.
4Hr Possible fakeout N really a Diving Purge for sellers...?CME_MINI:MNQ1!
'He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.' -Muhammad ALI
Top of the Morning Family!!! Here in this video this is just a prediction that I have here on MNQ.... I am implying that this move to the upside during last nights London session is a possible fake out to the upside and really setting up for a Diving Purge to the downside by sellers to sweep the eR/LQ Trendline and stacking demands. Remember nothing is set in stone we simply play the long-term game of probability. Lets stay focused!!!
Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of Printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ Consistently.
#500K
200DMA in focus as ceasefire speculation sparks sharp dropA softer US dollar and falling bond yields typically create a favourable environment for gold, but not today. Prices have plunged sharply, testing the 200DMA, a level that has made for reliable buying in recent times. Reports of a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire may explain the drop, but given past false dawns, price action may prove more reliable than speculative headlines for gauging near-term directional risks.
For longs, the 200DMA offers an opportunity to buy with a stop just below for protection, targeting $2710, a level tied to horizontal resistance briefly broken in light trade either side of the weekend. However, a close below the 200DMA would invalidate the bullish setup. Mixed momentum signals make price action the clearest guide for now.