The Elephant Jungle 9/15/26 Page 2As of right now, the Bulls are relying heavily on the Inside Range VAL for support, and this level might be more important than it looks.
The Bulls are basically standing on the edge of the ring right now. If they lose this support, they are going to give the Bears another opportunity to attack the Range Low.
And that is where things could get ugly.
If the Bears swipe the Range Low, the Bulls could still have one more line of defense around the Local VAH. That area could give the Bulls another opportunity to step in, defend themselves, and possibly turn the breakdown into another trap.
But if the Bulls lose that too?
Oh boy.
Now the Bears might have an open lane to start dragging price back toward 67K.
And the Bulls better hope these Bears do not build too much speed and momentum on the way down, because if they do, we might have to call Doc Brown and fire up the DeLorean.
These Bears might hit 88 miles per hour and send Bitcoin traveling all the way back in time to 55 like Marty McFly.
But before we start screaming “Great Scott!” and preparing for 55K, remember what we talked about on the Daily.
The Bears still have work to do.
They need to break support, take out the Range Low, and prove they can actually hold price below these levels. Until that happens, the Bulls are still alive, and another Bear trap could be waiting right around the corner.
The Bears might have the DeLorean fueled up, but somebody still has to hit 88 miles per hour. The Elephant Jungle 9/15/26 Page 4SO RED, WHAT’S THE PLAY?
As of right now, I am watching for confirmations to take a long from this 15m Order Block. If the confirmations are not there, I am not forcing anything. I will simply wait and see if the Bears can sweep the Range Low and give me another opportunity.
As for shorts, I am watching the 15m Order Block above, but if I do not get the confirmations I want from there, I am looking at the 1H Order Block higher up.
Either way, I am not chasing price.
Today looks like it could get interesting, but it also looks like the type of day where a lot of traders could get chopped up trying to predict every little move.
That is why today, confirmation is a MAJOR KEY.
DJ Khaled voice.
The market does not owe me a trade just because I opened TradingView. If price reaches my level and gives me my confirmation, I will take my shot. If it does not, I will sit back and let the Bulls and Bears beat the hell out of each other without me.
Sometimes the best trade is the one you had the discipline not to take.
That is my battle plan for today, but I want to hear yours. What are you seeing in the market? Are you riding with the Bulls, running with the Bears, or sitting on the sidelines waiting for one of them to show their hand?
Drop your thoughts in the comments.
And like always, trade safe, use good risk management, wait for your levels, and most importantly, wait for your confirmations.
The Jungle will always give you another opportunity.
Your job is to make sure you are still around when it does.
Until next time... The Elephant Jungle 9/15/26 Page 1About 29 days ago, the Bulls made a dramatic pump in the market that sent price flying up to around 82.2K. It was a strong move, but the Bulls just could not push far enough to swipe that 1M High.
And that is where things started getting interesting.
Since the Bulls could not take out the high, the Bears stepped in and took control, driving price down and taking out the low. But the Bulls were not ready to wave the white flag just yet. They only allowed the Bears to create a Swing Failure Pattern, then came charging right back for another attempt at taking out the high.
For a moment, it looked like the Bulls might actually pull it off.
Nope.
The Bulls could only push so far before the Bears said, “Give me that ball back.” The Bears took control again that same day and sent price right back down.
Since then, the market has spent the last few days trying to figure out who actually wants control. Price has been moving sideways, the Bulls have been fighting, the Bears have been fighting, and neither side has been able to land the knockout punch.
But today, things are starting to get interesting again.
It looks like the Bears might finally be ready to make another statement and attack that low one more time. If the Bears can take it out and get a solid body close below it, we might be able to kiss the Bulls goodbye for a while as price starts working its way back down toward 67.2K, or possibly even lower.
But hold up.
That is only one view of the market.
The Bulls still have a chance to defend this area and take control from here. Even if the Bears do take out the low, the Bulls could pull the same trick again and turn the breakdown into another SFP, trapping Bears who thought the breakdown was finally here.
So right now, this is not the place to marry a direction.
This is the place to watch the fight.
The Bears are standing at the Bulls’ front door, but they have not kicked it down yet. Until we get confirmation, both sides still have a path to victory.
And this Daily chart is only showing us the battlefield from the sky.
Now let’s drop down to the 4H Time Frame, because that is where we can get a much better look at what these Bulls and Bears are really up to. 
Long
The Elephant Jungle 8/21/26 Page 3So What’s The Play Red?
We are in Bear Territory, so usually Shorts would be the way to go. But I have to be honest, with the way these Bulls have been running the Jungle lately, I do not want to short until I see a nice Wyckoff Distribution show up on the 15m Time Frame or higher.
If I do happen to take a Short without seeing that Wyckoff Distribution, it will more than likely just be a scalp play.
And I would guard those Short plays hard.
I am talking about moving my Stop Loss into profit as soon as I can, or cutting the trade real quick if the market starts moving against me. I am not trying to marry the trade, especially when the Bulls are showing this much strength.
As for Longs, I am watching for a pullback into a Demand Range where I can look for an opportunity to get in.
Now, there is not really any good Market Structure on the 15m Time Frame and up, so I may have to drop down to a smaller Time Frame just to find the Market Structure I need to get into a Long play.
That does make the trade a little more risky, but with the way the Bulls have been controlling the market lately, it just may work.
So that is the plan for today.
The Bulls have momentum, the Bears have the defensive wall, and I am sitting in the Jungle waiting for the market to show me what it wants to do next.
I would love to hear your thoughts on the market, so drop them in the comments.
And like always, trade safe, use good risk management, and wait for your levels and confirmations.
Do not chase the Jungle.
Let the Jungle come to you.
Until next time. The Elephant Jungle 8/21/26 Page 2The Bulls are currently trying to make their way past the 1D Order Block, and with the way their momentum has been flowing lately, I believe they could find their way through the Order Block and charge head first into the 2D Order Block.
But, as you know, in the Jungle, anything can happen.
The Bears could simply wake up right now, tighten up their defense, and start sending the Bulls right back down to their grave.
Wow, the Jungle is hot right now, and the Bulls are showing some serious dominance.
They have already scored the touchdown, they are going for the two point conversion, and now they are charging straight toward the next defensive wall.
But can the Bulls keep this momentum going?
Or are the Bears about to wake up and remind everyone that this Jungle still belongs to them? The Elephant Jungle 8/21/26 Page 1Oh Boy, the Bulls are back, and they just scored a touchdown for the Bull Market by flipping the 1D Market Structure Bullish, leaving behind a fresh 1D Demand Range with a couple of High Time Frame Order Blocks sitting inside it.
Now the Bulls are going for the two point conversion, and they are aiming to take out the 1M High and get a solid close above it.
If the Bulls can pull this off, we could pretty much say the Bull Market is officially back.
But the Bears are not exactly ready to hand over the Jungle just yet.
The Bears have been playing some solid defense, and right now they are trying to defend the goal line with a massive 1M Order Block wall, reinforced by the 1D Order Block and the 2D Order Block.
That is one serious defensive line standing between the Bulls and the end zone.
The Bulls have already driven the ball down the field, scored the touchdown, and now they have one more play to finish the job.
Can they punch through and get the two point conversion?
Or will the Bears defend the goal line, stop the Bulls in their tracks, and take back possession of the Jungle?
Either way, the next play could tell us a whole lot about who is really in control. The Elephant Jungle 8/14/26 Page 3So, What’s The Play, Red?
As of right now, I am looking for a shot at another long inside the 6H Order Block.
If I can get the confirmation I am looking for, that is where I want to take my shot.
If I do not get confirmation there, I would rather stay patient and see if the 1H Order Block gives us another opportunity.
As for shorts, I am watching the 12H Order Block for a potential short, but the 1H Order Block could also give us a nice little rejection, so I have my eyes peeled for that too.
That is the plan for today.
Now I want to hear from you. What are you seeing in the Jungle? Drop your thoughts on the market in the comments and let me know what you think the Bulls and Bears are up to.
And, like always, trade safe, use good risk management, and wait for your levels and confirmations.
Until next time... The Elephant Jungle 8/14/26 Page 2Wednesday, we were looking to take a short from the 4H Order Block down to the 6H Order Block, and just like we planned, we got the rejection from the 4H Order Block and were able to ride it all the way down to the 6H Order Block.
Now, the 6H Order Block gave us a quick bounce, but the Bears are back and coming for another attempt to take it out and make their way down toward the Macro VAL.
But will they actually succeed?
It is not going to be easy, because the Naked Point of Control is still chillin like a villain right inside the 6H Order Block, and that could give the Bulls the support they need to put up another fight.
So, while the Bears are back in control, it is not quite over for the Bulls just yet.
The Bears still have a wall to break, and the Bulls still have one more level to defend. The Elephant Jungle 8/7/26 Page 4So Red, what’s the play today?
Well, as you know, I am watching the 90m Order Block for another short if price can make it back up there.
We just formed a Wyckoff Model 1 Accumulation, but the spring has been pretty weak and is not giving me the push I was hoping for. Maybe that is just because we are still in the London session, and New York will come in with the momentum.
However, if price breaks the Inside Range 2 Low before reaching the range high, then this Wyckoff is dead to me.
If that happens, I will be watching the 15m Order Block, with the Daily Level as confluence, for a nice little scalp long that could possibly turn into a swing long.
But, the 6H Order Block is still the long setup I like the most.
That is my game plan for today.
Now I would love to hear your thoughts on the market, so drop them in the comments.
And, like always, trade safe, use good risk management, and wait for your levels and confirmations.
Until next time. 
Long
Daily TA - AEXTrend & Structure (SMA Analysis)
Primary trend:Price trades well above the SMA200, keeping the primary trend bullish despite the current pullback.
Intermediate trend:SMA55 is rising, but price has dipped below it, signaling weakening structure in the intermediate trend. This often suggests consolidation or a corrective phase within a broader uptrend.
Short-term trend:Short-term structure is bearish-biased as the AEX continues to print lower highs and retests support zones.
Key takeaway:
“As long as price remains above the SMA 55 and 200, the trend bias stays bullish.”
Swing Sequencer
Current swing count: 4
Today’s signal: red candle with red Swing Count
Interpretation: The chart shows a continuation of the corrective phase, consistent with the red candle structure. Price is losing upward swing momentum, aligning with a downswing sequence.
Key takeaway:
“A renewed downswing is likely underway unless upward price action reclaims the prior support turned resistance.”
Momentum (RSI)
RSI value: 46.05
Zone: neutral, no oversold signal yet
Behavior: drifting lower
Interpretations:
weakening momentum
sellers gaining short-term control
no oversold signal yet
room for continuation of the correction
Key takeaway:
“RSI at 46.05 is not showing bullish divergence at this stage.”
Key Levels to Watch
Support:
S1: 965
S2: 950
Resistance:
R1: 1015
R2: 1030
Key takeaway:
“A break bellow 975 opens the door toward SMA55 at 965.”
Outlook for the Next Trading Day
If the AEX holds above 975, a short‑term bounce is possible.However:
A close below 975 opens the path toward 965, and a deeper correction toward the mid‑940 zone remains possible if momentum weakens further. Upside requires a break back above 985, which would signal buyers regaining control.
Disclaimer
All content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk; always conduct your own research.
Short
BITCOIN – LEVELS TO WATCHTraders,
We dumped. Now we are in a controlled recovery. The question is not only “are we going up” but “where will the market make its real decision.” Right now the chart is giving us two very clean checkpoints.
1. What happened
We lost the weekly open and sold off.
Spot was selling too, so the dump was real.
After the low, spot started buying again and price reclaimed above the big wick. That looks like a failed attempt lower.
Markets left a really weak low behind at ~99k. I am convinced we will sweep this low somewhere in the coming weeks.
Funding is negative while price is moving up. Shorts are still in the market. This is how squeezes start.
2. First decision zone: 107.300 to 108.000
This area is important because several things come together.
107.300 is a weak high. It stopped at a clean level without strong rejection. That often means liquidity is still sitting above it.
The AVWAP anchored from 7 April is there. Price is below it for the first time since that move. When price comes back into an AVWAP from below the market often reacts because old buyers meet new sellers.
We also have an LVN just below. That tells us the market did not trade much there before. Price likes to test that kind of gap.
So 107k to 108k is our first place to watch the data. If spot keeps pushing and perps do not start selling we can break it. If CVD stalls there it can be a take profit zone.
3. Accumulation and Distribution
On both the 1 hour and 4 hour spot charts the Accumulation/Distribution line tells an important story.
Price made a clear new low after the dump.
The A/D line did not make a new low. It actually started to turn up.
That is what traders call a bullish divergence. Price is still falling but the money flow is already improving.
In simple words. While candles were going down someone was quietly buying.
That means the bounce we see now is not just short covering or a random spike. It was prepared by real spot demand.
Futures can show a similar thing but spot is the cleaner signal because it is not influenced by funding, leverage or hedges.
When real buyers step in while shorts are still in the market it often creates the right conditions for a squeeze.
4. OBV check
On the 4h OBV you can see it popping up from the base after the dump. OBV going up while price is moving up means volume is supporting the move. This agrees with the spot A/D story. It is better when price and OBV move together than when price moves alone.
5. Scenario 1
Price pushes into 107k to 108k.
That sweep takes the weak high and tags the AVWAP.
If at that point spot CVD slows down or perps start to sell we can reject.
A rejection there can send price back into the mid zone and even lower towards 101k to 102k and in extension back to the HTF LVN near 98k.
This is the simple “first resistance holds” idea.
6. Scenario 2
This is the one I am leaning toward.
Price breaks and holds above 108k.
Shorts do not get their reaction.
Spot keeps supporting and funding stays negative to flat.
Then the market has room to go for the next real liquidity pool which is 117k to 118k.
7. Why 117k to 118k matters
On the liquidity heatmap there is clear resting liquidity higher up. Price often travels to those areas because that is where orders are.
The golden pocket of the previous move sits in this same zone. Many traders watch this fib area so reactions there are common.
Several AVWAP bands from earlier dates are meeting around 117k to 118k. When AVWAPs from different anchors cluster together it creates a stronger level because different groups of traders all care about that price.
Between the current price and that zone there are imbalances and LVNs. That means the market moved quickly there before and did not build volume. These thin areas often get filled on the next push.
8. How to read it in real time
Above 108k and spot CVD still rising means squeeze is on.
Above 108k and funding still negative means shorts are paying to stay wrong.
Lose 108k again after a sweep and see CVD roll over means scenario 1 is playing.
Price can just dump down without getting more liquidity. But looking unlikely based on the data right now.
So if Bitcoin can break and hold above 108k there is not much in the way until 117k to 118k.
Final view
We dumped on real flow.
We are recovering with spot support.
We have a clear first test at 107k to 108k.
Break and hold and the magnet becomes 117k to 118k because of liquidity, golden pocket, AVWAP confluence and imbalance.
TLDR;
Bitcoin sold off hard, but the data says the low was bought. Spot A/D started rising while price was still making new lows, funding turned negative and price reclaimed above the wick, which tells us real buyers stepped in while shorts stayed in their positions. Now price is climbing back toward 107k to 108k where a weak high and the April AVWAP are waiting, so that is the first place the market can decide if this recovery is just a bounce or the start of a squeeze. If buyers keep showing up there and we push through, the path above is thin and the next real pocket of liquidity, AVWAP confluence, imbalance and even the golden pocket of the earlier move all sit together around 117k to 118k. That is why this recovery matters. It is not just candles going up. It is positioning, spot flow and liquidity all lining up.
If you enjoy this type of analysis or find it helpful, leave a like or drop a comment. I don’t ask for anything in return — I share this to help traders understand what’s really happening behind the charts. It also helps me see if people actually read and value these breakdowns, so if it helped you, let me know below.
