GBPUSD: Decline from Resistance LevelHello traders! Looking at the chart, we can see that GBPUSD is in an ascending wedge , but it has encountered strong resistance at 1.3650. If it fails to break through this level, the price could reverse and head lower, with a target at 1.3600.
The reason for the decline in GBPUSD is due to the USD strengthening slightly on Thursday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates . This created upward pressure on USD, leading to a slight decrease in GBPUSD.
At the same time, GBP dropped slightly ahead of the Bank of England's policy meeting , which increased uncertainty and put downward pressure on GBPUSD.
With support from both fundamental and technical factors , can GBPUSD continue its decline? Let us know your thoughts!
Technical Analysis
GBPUSD H1 – Fibonacci Play: Ready for the Next Big Leg?GBPUSD is consolidating after its recent rally, and Fibonacci retracements highlight two critical buy zones for potential entries:
BUY ZONE 1: 1.36100 – SL 1.35600
SL: R/R - 1/2 - 1/3
BUY ZONE 2: 1.35500 – SL 1.35200
SL: R/R - 1/2 - 1/3
A potential dip into these zones could offer strong upside opportunities, with an extended Fibonacci reference pointing to 1.37200 as the next bullish target.
If price respects these supports, a rally toward 1.36699 → 1.37200 is on the table. A break below these zones, however, could delay the bullish scenario—so manage your risk carefully.
⚠ Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Resistance: 1.36699
Short-Term Supports: 1.36100 / 1.35500
Long-Term Target: 1.37200 (Extended Fibo)
💬 Your Turn
📈 Which Fibo zone are you watching for your entry—1.36100 or 1.35500? Share your view in the comments and let’s compare setups!
FED countdown | Buy at support, Sell at resistanceXAU/USD – 17/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
18/09, 01:00 (US time) : FED rate decision + Dot Plot → policy outlook for upcoming meetings
01:30 : Powell’s speech – the key market focus
Market consensus: FED almost certain to cut -25bps . However, the -50bps scenario still exists → if it happens, it will be a “big boost” for Gold
During Asia–Europe session, Gold faced early profit-taking, dropping quickly to 3,677 – 3,675 , reflecting caution ahead of the FED
⏩ Captain’s Summary
Gold is making a technical correction before the FED.
Medium-term trend remains bullish , but patience is needed to wait for pullbacks for safer Buy entries.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
Nearby OB: 3,693 – 3,695 (short scalp)
ATH Zone: 3,717 – 3,720 (strong resistance, potential heavy selling)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Shallow Dock: 3,656 – 3,657 (short-term)
Main Harbor: 3,629 – 3,630
Market Structure
Multiple BoS confirm the bullish trend
Price retracing to support, likely to bounce back and test 3,693 – 3,717
Break above 3,720 → new ATH confirmed
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,656 – 3,657
SL: 3,648
TP: 3,675 – 3,693 – 3,717
Buy Zone 2
Entry: 3,629 – 3,630
SL: 3,618
TP: 3,656 – 3,690 – 3,717
⚡ Sell (only at resistance)
Sell Zone OB
Entry: 3,693 – 3,695
SL: 3,705
TP: 3,675 – 3,662
Sell Zone ATH
Entry: 3,717 – 3,720
SL: 3,727
TP: 3,706 – 3,690 – 3,675
⚓ Captain’s Note
“Before the FED countdown, profit-taking waves pulled the Golden ship near Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,656 – 3,629) .
But the main current still flows north, the bullish trend remains intact.
Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,693 – 3,720) is the high wave, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps.
Sailors must stay patient – the FED wind could be the power to propel Gold beyond new peaks.”
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 18, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Post-Fed digestion: Markets recalibrate after Wednesday’s 🚩 FOMC decision + Powell press conference.
💵 Dollar & yields watch: FX and Treasury moves reflect how traders interpret the Fed’s updated path.
💻 Tech + growth trade: Positioning in AMEX:XLK and high-beta names remains key as rates reset.
🛢️ Energy chatter: Oil volatility keeps AMEX:XLE and inflation hedges in focus.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Aug)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #joblessclaims #economy #Dollar #bonds #tech #oil
HBAR ANALYSIS📊 #HBAR Analysis
✅There is a formation of Falling Wedge Pattern on 4HR chart with a breakout and currently trading above its major support area🧐
Pattern signals potential bullish movement incoming in few days
👀Current Price: $0.2385
🚀 Target Price: $0.2780
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #HBAR price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#HBAR #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
OPENUSD: short setup from daily support at 0.8213BINANCE:OPENUSDT.P
The level is local and fresh, which means it's not strong. However, below it lies a "clean zone" with no obstacles to a free fall. This factor lowers the requirements for the level's strength; a break below it, even though weak, could trigger panic selling as it serves as the only reference point. This panic, in turn, would only accelerate the fall.
Therefore, I am closely watching how the asset approaches this level. A sharp move into it is undesirable.
Key factors for this scenario
Global & local trend alignment
Price void / low liquidity zone beyond level
Volatility contraction on approach
Immediate retest
Repeated precise tests of the level ("sticking")
DOW JONES (US30): Your Plan to Trade FOMC Today
US30 keeps coiling on a recently broken daily key resistance
that turned into a support after a breakout.
To buy the market with confirmation after today's rate decision,
concentrate your attention on a double bottom pattern on a 4H time frame.
A bullish breakout of its neckline and a 4H candle close above 46850
will provide a reliable signal.
A bullish continuation will be expected to a current structure high then - 46087.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
$2.70 to $20.45 then sharp crash and slide-off🔥 $2.70 to $20.45 on NASDAQ:TURB
657% move in a day on massive 141 million shares traded volume
But why did it suddenly crash and how was that even possible on big supportive 141 million shares volume when actual float of the stock and shortselling shares available are only 5 million?
I'm talking about new highs move from $15 above previous high of $19 to $20.45 then sudden drop in seconds to $14
What happened was a nasty manipulation, they designed it that way.
They knew they don't have enough shares to short available to create that kind of crash, only 5M shares total and all of it was already reserved by shortsellers so what they did was they were buying with other accounts while they were short to create large long position, then once at $20 they added all they could on short size to max out that's what stopped the new leg higher of $20+ vertical and if they didn't have the long position bulls would easily keep it supported and squeeze it even higher, but they had long position so what they did was drop whole long position 2.5M shares sell market order at once which created massive 25% - 30% drop from highs in a few seconds, this created double top, scared bulls, saved their short position even if their long got terrible fills but more important shortsell position gained a lot. Similar thing happened with WLDS when it got to that $11 area ready to explode a few days ago then smack down.
Got to keep an eye on this new trick they're trying to play. My trade had $19+ target area so all good but still, good to understand what's really going on in the background at these important levels.
Orange Juice Futures (ICE) – Long Trade SetupDirection: Long Bias
Contract: Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (OJ / ICE US)
Current Price: ~268.95
🔍 Technical Setup
Price has found strong support around the 240–260 zone, aligning with long-term trendline support.
EMA20 is stabilizing, hinting at a potential shift in momentum after a sharp correction.
Structure suggests a rebound move with upside toward the 350–400 zone (previous support-turned-resistance).
Risk is clearly defined with support just below the recent lows.
📊 Fundamentals & Sentiment
Supply shock remains in play:
Brazil’s citrus belt is under severe strain from citrus greening disease (HLB), with nearly half of orchards infected.
2024/25 production fell to multi-decade lows, leaving Brazilian OJ stocks near “technical zero.”
Demand resilience: While high prices have pressured some consumers, global demand for NFC and premium juice has stayed firm.
Weather risk: Brazil’s 2025/26 crop outlook is uncertain — drought and heat remain threats.
🧾 COT Positioning
Speculators: Net long positioning indicates a bullish tilt, reflecting continued interest in upside exposure.
Commercials: Hedgers are active on the short side, but this is typical for producers locking in higher prices.
Interpretation: With speculators holding long exposure and commercials hedging into strength, the structure supports a bullish bias from a positioning standpoint.
🎯 Trade Plan
Strategy Stats: My long setups have a 70% win rate and average +11% gain.
Entry Zone: Current levels (~265–270) on confirmation of support holding.
Target 1: 350
Target 2: 400+ (if momentum extends)
⚠️ Risks
Strong rebound in Brazilian production (2025/26 season) could ease supply stress.
Demand destruction if consumers continue to balk at higher prices.
Large speculator long unwinds could trigger a sharp correction.
✅ Conclusion
With supply tightness, disease risk, and speculators maintaining long exposure, the Orange Juice market is primed for a bullish rebound from strong support. My system favors a long entry here, targeting 350–400, with a 70% historical profitability rate on similar setups.
Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup🍫 Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup
Direction: Long Bias
Contract: Cocoa (NY / ICE)
Current Price: ~7,437
🔍 Technical Setup
Price has been consolidating after the sharp run-up and has now pulled back into a key long-term trendline (yellow support).
A downtrend channel breakout is forming – if price clears this, it opens the door to a relief rally.
I’m looking for price to push back toward the 8,500–9,000 zone as a first target (previous structure resistance).
EMA cross (9 vs 19) is flattening, signaling potential shift in momentum.
📊 COT & Sentiment
Speculators remain net long in cocoa, reflecting continued bullish sentiment.
Commercials (hedgers) are still short, but that’s typical for producers – nothing extreme.
Fundamentals remain tight:
Black pod disease in Cameroon hitting yields.
Stockpiles in London/NY at multi-year lows.
Consumer demand holding up despite high prices.
This alignment supports a bullish recovery if technicals confirm.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Current levels around 7,400–7,500, scaling in on confirmation.
Target 1: 8,500 (previous resistance zone).
Target 2: 9,000+ if momentum extends.
Stop Loss: Below 7,000 to protect against breakdown.
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 setup.
⚠️ Risks
Stronger-than-expected supply recovery in Ivory Coast/Ghana.
Weak grind demand data (sign of demand destruction).
Speculators cutting long positions aggressively.
✅ Conclusion
Cocoa has pulled back into long-term support, with positioning and fundamentals still supportive of higher prices. If the descending trendline breaks, I’m positioning for a long swing toward 8,500–9,000.
This cocoa strategy has a profitability rate of 66% and average 9.4% gain on a long position.
"SBIN Weekly Breakout: Target ₹950–₹1,000 with a Stop at ₹820"State Bank of India (SBIN) has broken above a multi-month resistance trendline on the weekly chart with strong bullish momentum and volume. The breakout is supported by a positive RSI and rising moving averages, confirming strength.
Buy Price: ₹857 (current close)
Target: ₹950–₹1,000
Stop-Loss: ₹820–₹830
Trade Plan: Buy on weekly close above resistance. Target the next psychological and technical resistance zone. Maintain tight stop-loss below breakout levels to manage risk.
Chart and technicals suggest a sustained move up if support holds!
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Breakout
Crude Oil broke and closed above a major daily horizontal resistance.
With a high probability, a broken structure turns into a potentially strong
support now.
I will expect a rise from that and a bullish continuation to 65.56 resistance.
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Gold Pullback Toward 3,650 as DXY Weakness Supports UpsideHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD (Gold) for a buying opportunity around the 3,650 zone. Gold is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level.
Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, with price pulling back toward a key area of interest.
Key level in focus: 3,650 — a zone where buyers may look to re-enter and resume the trend.
Fundamentals: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) maintains a bearish bias, currently in a downtrend and approaching 97.150 resistance. This weakness could continue to support Gold due to their negative correlation.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Bitcoin at Critical Resistance – Reversal or Breakout?Bitcoin (BTCUSDT – 3H) is testing the 117.5k – 118k resistance zone, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel.
So far, this level has acted as a strong rejection zone several times.
🔎 Key Insights:
• Structure: Price has formed a rising channel/wedge, often seen as a corrective bearish pattern.
• Resistance: 117.5k – 118k (major supply zone + channel top).
• Supports:
• 114k (short-term channel support)
• 107k – 108k (major support zone + channel bottom).
📌 Scenarios:
• Bearish (more likely): Rejection from 118k → downside targets at 114k and 107k – 108k.
• Bullish (alternative): Break & close above 118k → potential rally toward 122k – 124k.
⚠️ As long as BTC stays below 118k, downside risks remain higher.
DXY vs. EURUSD – Pre-FOMC DivergenceDollar Index (DXY)
Yesterday’s move was fully absorbed inside a tight range, leaving the internal range high at 99.804 ahead of the Fed meeting.
Liquidity is at 98.00 stacked above that zone; market makers could easily run the stops toward the 98 handle before any larger downside move.
EURUSD
Meanwhile, EURUSD broke out of its major range, giving us a new weekly structure with a key reference low at 1.13914.
Cross-Market View
This sets up a classic divergence:
Dollar – trapped in a premium sell range, heavy liquidity overhead.
Euro – fresh upside structure.
For cross-pairs this often means sharp pullbacks or erratic price action as we approach the FOMC decision.
Trade Notes
Stay nimble and keep stops tight.
FED shaken by politics | Gold eyes new ATH🟡 XAU/USD – 16/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED & US Politics :
S. Miran elected to the FED Board but still serves as Trump’s economic advisor → concerns FED may face White House influence.
Michelle Mills elected with a narrow 48–47 margin.
Appeals Court blocked Trump from firing L. Cook, affirming FED’s independence, but raising the risk of a legal battle at the Supreme Court.
US Economy :
6:30 AM (US time): Retail Sales release – key consumer spending indicator.
Probability of a -50bps FED cut this week is down to 1.2% , nearly ruled out. FED is almost certain to deliver -25bps next week.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Politics create noise, but the macro backdrop (FED easing + weak US data) remains the tailwind supporting Gold’s journey toward new ATH.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) :
3706 – 3714 (Fibonacci resistance)
3722 – 3724 (Strong Sell Zone, potential ATH test)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) :
FVG Dock: 3666 – 3668
OB Harbor: 3643 – 3645
Strong Low: 3611 (deep support)
Market Structure :
After a series of BoS , Gold broke out of sideways EqH/EqL and surged.
Preferred scenario: retrace to FVG 3666 , then bounce toward 3714 – 3722.
If 3722 breaks successfully → confirms new ATH and extends bullish momentum.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy 1 (FVG)
Entry: 3666 – 3668
SL: 3657
TP: 3690 – 3706 – 3714 – 372x
Buy 2 (OB)
Entry: 3643 – 3645
SL: 3632
TP: 3666 – 3700 – 3714 – 372x
⚡ Sell (short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone
Entry: 3722 – 3724
SL: 3732
TP: 3714 – 3706 – 3690
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden ship has broken free from sideways waters and is heading toward new peaks. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3666 – 3643) is the safe dock for sailors to gather strength before sailing further. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3722 – 3724) is the big wave, suitable only for short Quick Boarding 🚤 . With dovish winds from the FED, the Golden sails are set toward new ATH.”
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Fed Day: All eyes on the FOMC decision + Powell press conference — this will lock in the September rate path.
📉 Positioning risk: Funds lightened up into Tuesday’s Retail Sales; volatility likely post-Fed.
💻 Tech leadership in focus: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , and AI plays driving AMEX:XLK flows ahead of macro.
🛢️ Crude swings: Energy price stability remains an inflation sentiment wildcard.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Aug)
⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Policy Decision + SEP (dot plot)
⏰ 🚩 2:30 PM — Powell Press Conference
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #Fed #housing #energy #bonds #Dollar #megacaps
What Could Derail the Nasdaq 100 Uptrend?The chart shows the US100 (Nasdaq 100, daily timeframe) extending its bullish momentum within a rising channel. Here’s the breakdown:
Trend & Structure:
The index has been in a steady uptrend since rebounding from its April lows, with price action respecting the boundaries of the ascending channel. It remains above both the 50-day SMA (23,416) and the 200-day SMA (21,481), confirming strong bullish structure.
Support Levels:
The lower channel boundary around 23,500 is immediate dynamic support.
The 50-day SMA provides further backing below that.
A key horizontal support is at 21,150, near the 200-day SMA, which marks the broader trendline base.
Resistance Levels:
The upper channel boundary near 24,500 is the immediate resistance.
A breakout above this region could extend gains toward 25,000, the next psychological target.
Momentum Indicators:
MACD remains positive, confirming upward momentum.
RSI (68.7) is approaching overbought levels but still has room before signaling exhaustion.
Outlook:
The Nasdaq 100 remains firmly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the trend. While the RSI hints at stretched conditions, momentum remains strong, and as long as price holds above 23,500, the path of least resistance points toward 24,500–25,000.
-MW
Silver's Bullish Trend ExtendsThe chart shows Silver (XAG/USD, daily timeframe) continuing its bullish advance within a well-established ascending channel. Here’s the breakdown:
Trend & Structure:
Silver has maintained strong upward momentum since mid-June, trading comfortably above both the 50-day SMA (38.91) and the 200-day SMA (34.22). The rising channel highlights persistent demand and higher lows supporting the uptrend.
Support Levels:
The lower channel boundary around 39.00 is immediate dynamic support.
The 50-day SMA also aligns as secondary support.
A stronger floor rests at 35.00, a previous breakout zone and psychological level.
Resistance Levels:
The upper channel line near 43.50–44.00 is the next resistance to watch.
Sustained momentum above this range could accelerate toward 45.00, the next psychological barrier.
Momentum Indicators:
MACD is in positive territory, supporting bullish momentum.
RSI (73.8) has entered overbought territory, suggesting short-term consolidation or a pullback is possible before further upside.
Outlook:
Silver remains in a strong bullish trend, with price action guided by the rising channel. While the overbought RSI hints at a potential pause or minor pullback, the broader structure favors further gains toward the 43.50–45.00 area as long as price holds above 39.00.
-MW
USD/MXN Breaking Down - Where Next?The chart shows USD/MXN (daily timeframe) under steady bearish pressure, extending its decline inside a well-defined descending channel. Here’s the breakdown:
Trend & Structure: Price has been moving lower since the peak near 21.00 earlier this year. It is now trading below both the 50-day SMA (18.67) and the 200-day SMA (19.61), reinforcing the bearish bias.
Support & Fibonacci Levels:
The immediate focus is the 18.17 zone, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April–July 2024 rally.
Below that, the next major level is 17.33 (78.6% Fib), followed by 16.26 (100% retracement).
Resistance Levels:
First resistance sits at 19.07, followed by the 19.49 area near the upper channel boundary.
A breakout above the 50-day SMA could open the way to test the 200-day SMA near 19.61.
Momentum Indicators:
MACD is below the signal line, showing continued bearish momentum.
RSI (28) is in oversold territory, suggesting that sellers are losing strength and a short-term bounce may develop.
Outlook:
USD/MXN remains in a strong downtrend, but with RSI flashing oversold and price nearing the 61.8% retracement support, the pair could see a corrective rebound in the short term. However, as long as the price stays below 19.07–19.50, the broader bias remains bearish, favoring further downside toward 18.17 and possibly 17.33.
-MW
KOTHARIPRO (BSE: 1D) — Volume Pressure Analyzer | OB 5/7 Tool used
Analysis made with ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer (VPA), which decomposes daily flows into buy/sell volume, prints half-window deltas (C→B vs B→A), ATR-normalized wing slopes, α/β geometry at vertex B, and OverBought/OverSold spike labels confirmed by a 7-oscillator vote
1) Snapshot from HUD
◉ OB 5/7 fired on today’s +20% candle (RSI/Stoch/CCI/MFI/StRSI cluster).
◉ C→B (earlier half): Δ −14.21 → seller-tilted.
◉ B→A (recent half): Δ +72.25K → buyers in control.
◉ Angles: C→B wing both <0° (down), B→A wing both >0° (up).
◉ α=171.6°, β=188.4° → no red flags (thresholds are α>180 or β<180).
◉ Ranked zones:
- B1 High 93.0 / Low 77.0 (resistance)
- S1 Low 83.9 (support)
2) Interpretation
◉ The OB 5/7 tag warns of short-term exhaustion after an impulsive surge.
◉ Yet the right wing (B→A) shows positive deltas and slopes, meaning structure still favors buyers.
◉ No α/β stress flags, so the geometry is not “over-stretched.”
◉ The zone map is clean: B1 = resistance (93.0) and S1 = first support (83.9).
3) Scenarios
A) Base case — Pullback / Digestion
◉ Likely reaction into the S1 zone (≈84–87) after OB tag.
◉ Watch Δ(B→A): if it fades to ≤0 and wings flatten, pullback deepens.
B) Bullish continuation
◉ Requires daily acceptance above 93 with a buy-spike (TF_buy / SMA ≥1.6 or Z≥1.8).
◉ Validation = B→A Δ stays >0 and right wing >0°.
C) Bearish rotation
◉ Triggers if B→A Δ flips negative and right wing turns gray/red.
◉ Breakdown below 83.9 on a sell-spike would confirm shift.
4) Conclusion
Bias: Constructive with pullback risk.
◉ Immediate OB tag suggests a pause; however, the buyer regime in the recent half (B→A) is still active.
◉ Key invalidation = loss of 83.9 (S1) with negative Δ.
◉ Key confirmation = acceptance above 93 with buy-spike absorption.
The points above are the technical and educational details from the ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer (VPA). Put simply, the takeaway is this:
The stock made a sharp +20% move today up to 93, and the indicator flagged an “OverBought” condition. That means buying pressure was unusually strong and the market may need to cool off with a pause or short pullback. Still, the recent volume balance shows buyers remain in control, so the broader structure is still constructive.
If price can hold above 93 with renewed strong buy-side volume, continuation to the upside is favored. But if it slips below 84 and selling pressure grows, that would mark the start of a deeper correction. In simple terms: the main trend is still positive, but after today’s surge it makes sense to expect some digestion before the next leg.