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EURGBP – Bearish Momentum Approaching Reversal Zone📊 EURGBP – H1 Market Structure, Supply Breakdown & Volume-Based Reversal Setup 🔍 Technical Analysis EURGBP on the 1-hour timeframe is currently trading in a clear bearish environment. The pair has transitioned from consolidation into a strong impulsive sell-off, signaling increasing dominance from sellers. The chart highlights a key breakdown from supply, followed by aggressive momentum toward a high-interest demand area. 📉 Market Structure & Momentum Price respected a descending structure, forming lower highs and lower lows. A previous internal consolidation range failed to hold, confirming bearish continuation. The sharp bearish candles reflect strong order flow imbalance, suggesting institutional participation rather than retail-driven movement. 🟥 Broken Supply (BR Supply) The marked BR Supply level acted as a strong resistance in the past. Once price broke below this level, it confirmed a market structure break (MSB). After the breakdown, price used this area as a distribution zone, accelerating further downside. This validates the level as a key decision point in the trend. 🟩 Demand Zone with Volume Burst (Lower Area) The lower green zone represents a high-probability demand and volume burst area. Historically, this zone shows strong buying reactions, indicating accumulation. The presence of a Volume Burst suggests liquidity absorption and potential exhaustion of sellers. This is a zone where reversal or corrective pullback becomes technically valid. 🔄 Reversal Zone & Pattern Expectation The highlighted Reversal Zone is not a blind entry area. A clear bullish pattern must form (e.g., strong rejection wicks, bullish engulfing, or shift in structure). Without confirmation, price may continue lower due to prevailing bearish pressure. The annotation “Pattern Must” emphasizes confirmation over anticipation. 🧠 Trading Scenarios Scenario 1 – Bullish Reaction (Corrective Move): If buyers step in with volume confirmation, price may react upward toward broken structure. This move would likely be a pullback within a broader bearish trend, not an immediate trend reversal. Scenario 2 – Bearish Continuation: Failure to hold the demand zone could lead to continued downside, targeting deeper liquidity pools. Strong bearish closes below the zone invalidate reversal expectations. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: Broken Supply / Prior Structure Support: Volume Burst Demand & Reversal Zone Bias: Bearish overall, cautious bullish reaction only with confirmation 💡 Trading Insight Trend is bearish; counter-trend trades require patience and confirmation. Volume behavior at key zones gives better insight than indicators alone. Trade reaction, not prediction.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
Bitcoin Isn’t Weak — It’s Building the Break That Traps BTC / USD – H4 ANALYSIS Market Structure BTC is still locked inside a broad high-liquidity range, not in a downtrend. Multiple failed breakdowns from the support zone confirm buyers are defending aggressively. Price is compressing back toward the range mid–upper area → classic re-accumulation behavior. EMA Behavior EMA 34 & EMA 89 are flattening, not sharply sloping down. This indicates balance → absorption, not trend reversal. Strong moves usually start after EMAs go flat, not when they’re trending. Liquidity Context Current price action is designed to shake both early longs and late shorts. Liquidity is concentrated: Above range highs (buy stops) Below range lows (sell stops) Market is preparing for expansion, not distribution. Macro Alignment No macro shock forcing risk-off right now. BTC is behaving independently → capital rotation + positioning phase. This favors range → expansion, not collapse. Expectation Short-term: continued choppy movement inside the box. Medium-term: range high sweep → breakout attempt toward the upper resistance zone. Only a clean, high-volume breakdown below support would invalidate this structure.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
this ETH Structure Usually Breaks Higher — Most Traders Miss ItETH/USD – H1 | Technical Structure ETH is holding firmly above the key support zone and both EMA 34 & EMA 89, confirming trend control by buyers. Recent pullbacks are shallow and corrective, forming higher lows → classic bullish continuation behavior. Price is compressing below the next resistance around 3,100, indicating energy build-up rather than distribution. As long as support holds, the structure favors step-by-step expansion, not reversal. EMA 34 & EMA 89 remain below price, acting as dynamic support. Macro Context Risk appetite remains supported as markets price in softer USD conditions and future Fed easing. ETH benefits from capital rotation into majors, especially when BTC stabilizes. No major macro headwinds at the moment → momentum stays with trend-following buyers. Outlook Primary scenario: Hold above support → consolidation → push toward 3,100+. Invalidation: Only a clean breakdown below the support zone would delay the bullish continuation. Bottom Line ETH is not overextended it’s absorbing liquidity above support. This structure typically resolves higher, not sideways or lower.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Bitcoin Is Ranging — And Macro Is Keeping It That WayBitcoin on H1 remains locked inside a clearly defined range, with price oscillating between a defended support zone near the lower boundary and a heavy resistance band overhead. The sharp rejection from resistance confirms active sellers at the top, while repeated bounces from support show that buyers are still willing to defend the range. This back and forth price action reflects balance and liquidity building rather than trend continuation, with momentum paused after the prior impulsive move. Structurally, BTC is showing overlapping candles and failed follow-through in both directions classic range behavior. As long as price remains capped below resistance, upside attempts are corrective, not impulsive. A rotation back toward the mid-to-lower range remains the higher-probability path unless acceptance above resistance is achieved with strength. From a macro perspective, this consolidation aligns with a broader wait-and-see environment across risk assets. Markets are currently sensitive to U.S. macro data and expectations around Fed policy, with no clear catalyst pushing liquidity decisively risk-on or risk-off. This macro indecision is mirrored directly in Bitcoin’s price action, where volatility compresses and directional conviction fades. In summary, Bitcoin is not breaking it is balancing. Until macro conditions and liquidity provide a clear push, BTC is likely to continue rotating within the range. The edge lies in patience: wait for a clean range resolution with intent, not anticipation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Matthew_TradeRFX
Bitcoin Isn’t Trending — It’s Trapping TradersBTCUSD (H1) — Focused Market Analysis Market Structure BTC is clearly stuck in a range, with price repeatedly rejecting from the upper resistance zone and holding above a well-defined support zone. No higher highs or lower lows → no trend, only balance. Key Zones Resistance Zone: ~89,800 – 90,200 Support Zone: ~84,800 – 85,200 Current Price: Trading near the mid-range → low R:R for breakout trades. Moving Averages Price is entangled with EMAs, confirming indecision and sideways conditions. MAs are flat → momentum is neutral. Price Behavior Repeated liquidity sweeps at both extremes. Dotted projection highlights a range-expansion cycle, not a trend. Breakouts inside the range are likely fake moves. Scenarios Primary Scenario (High Probability): Continued sideways oscillation between support and resistance. Breakout Scenario (Only valid if): Strong close above resistance with volume → opens upside continuation. Breakdown below support → shifts market to bearish extension. Summary Bitcoin is not ready to trend. Patience > prediction. Trade the range or wait for a confirmed breakout.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
Key Levels – Where Gold Reacts, Not Indicators?Many traders start trading gold using indicators, and that’s something almost everyone goes through. However, the longer you stay in the market, the more clearly you realize one important truth: gold does not react to indicators; it reacts at key levels . Indicators only describe what price has already done, while key levels are where real money actually makes decisions. Price does not move randomly. It reacts at important price zones. Key levels are areas where the market has shown clear reactions in the past — strong reversals, repeated rejections, or consolidation before a breakout. In gold trading, these zones often align with major highs and lows, round numbers, or areas of concentrated liquidity. This is where both retail traders and large capital are paying attention. One major reason many traders consistently enter too late is over-reliance on indicators. Indicators are always based on past price data, so when a signal appears, the key reaction has often already happened. At that point, entries are less attractive, risk-to-reward deteriorates, and the probability of false breaks or stop hunts increases. Indicators are not wrong, but they always lag behind price. Professional traders don’t try to predict whether price will go up or down. They wait for price to reach a key level and then observe how the market reacts. Is price strongly rejected, or does it break through easily? Is real buying or selling pressure actually showing up? Key levels are not places to predict — they are places to observe and react. This doesn’t mean indicators are useless. Indicators still have value for momentum confirmation or for understanding market context. But they should not be the primary factor for making entry decisions. Key levels tell you where to trade. Indicators only help you understand how price is behaving. Conclusion If you are trading gold and still searching for the “best indicator for XAUUSD,” you may be asking the wrong question. The better question is: Which key level is the market respecting right now? Because in the end, price reacts at levels — not at indicators.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Paradise_Noir
27
XAUUSD – The UP Trend Is Still Well ProtectedThe gold market is no longer asking “will it go up or not” — the real question now is how the rally unfolds . When we combine the news backdrop with the price structure on the chart, the bullish picture of XAUUSD becomes increasingly clear. On the fundamental side , recent U.S. economic data shows a cooling labor market , while expectations for the Fed to continue easing monetary policy remain intact . Yields and the USD are not strong enough to trigger a deep sell-off, and safe-haven demand is still present. This creates a solid macro foundation supporting higher gold prices, rather than a random technical bounce. From a technical perspective , the uptrend remains clean and well-structured: • Price is above the Ichimoku cloud, and the cloud is sloping upward → the primary trend remains bullish. • The 4,300 zone is acting as both a dynamic and psychological support, where price has just pulled back and reacted positively. • The long-term ascending trendline remains intact → the Higher Low structure is still preserved. The most logical scenario at this stage is consolidation above 4,300, followed by a continuation toward the 4,380 – 4,390 zone, where the upper trendline resistance converges. This is a classic behavior of a strong market: no sharp sell-offs, no panic — just a pause before the next leg higher. 👉 In summary: The UPTREND in XAUUSD continues to dominate. As long as 4,300 holds, any pullback should be viewed as a trend-following opportunity, not a reversal signal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Paradise_Noir
32
XAUUSD Bullish Continuation SetupXAUUSD – H1 Timeframe Bullish Analysis Overall Trend XAUUSD is respecting a bullish trendline, which confirms that the market is still in an uptrend. Price is forming higher lows, indicating that buyers are in control of the market. As long as the bullish trendline holds, the market bias remains bullish. Demand Zone The confluence of the demand zone and the bullish trendline strengthens the probability of upward continuation. Buyers are likely to defend this zone. Triangle Pattern Price is forming a symmetrical / ascending triangle. This pattern usually acts as a continuation pattern in an uptrend. Price compression inside the triangle indicates that a strong breakout is likely. Breakout Expectation A clean H1 candle close above the triangle resistance will confirm a bullish breakout. After the breakout, price is expected to move toward the next all-time high (ATH) at 4420. MACD Indicator MACD is showing bullish momentum stabilization. The contraction of the histogram suggests that momentum is building and an expansion may follow soon. A bullish MACD crossover or expansion above the zero line will further support the upside move. Trade Plan (Bullish) Buy Entry: now 4327 or after the triangle breakout. Stop Loss: 4305 Take Profit: TP1: Previous high 4355 TP2: Next resistance 4390 Final Target: ATH 4420 Disclaimer This chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves high risk; always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Markovic_VascoView
EUR/USD Is Sitting on the Edge — Bounce or Breakdown?EUR/USD – 1H Price is holding at a well-defined support zone (~1.1700) after sustained selling pressure. Momentum is weak, but selling is no longer aggressive → early stabilization. Key Levels Support: 1.1685–1.1705 Resistance: 1.1755–1.1765 Upside target (if bounce holds): 1.1800–1.1810 Scenario Base case: support holds → corrective bounce toward resistance. Failure scenario: clean break below support opens continuation lower. Bottom Line This is a decision zone, not a chase. The move only becomes clear after price reacts at support.
Long
by Matthew_TradeRFX
2
ETH Is Done Falling — Now It’s Testing ConvictionETH/USD – 1H Quick Analysis ETH has broken the descending trendline and reacted cleanly from the support zone, signaling downside exhaustion. Price is now compressing below resistance, forming higher lows — a classic transition from sell pressure to balance. Key Levels Support: ~2,780–2,820 (buyers defended decisively) Resistance: ~3,150–3,180 (key decision zone) Outlook Short-term: Consolidation / pullback is possible to build structure Continuation: Acceptance above resistance = upside expansion Failure: Rejection keeps ETH ranging, not bearish Bottom Line Trendline broken. Support held. ETH is coiling direction comes at resistance.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Matthew_TradeRFX
1
BTC Isn’t Breaking Out — It’s Hunting LiquidityBTC/USD – 1H Quick Read Bitcoin remains trapped inside a defined range between support and resistance. Price is holding near the range mid, showing balance, not momentum. Repeated wicks at both extremes confirm liquidity sweeps, not trend acceptance. Buyers defend support aggressively, but upside attempts still lack follow-through. Key Points Range market = rotation, not trend Breakouts are faded, pullbacks are absorbed Liquidity is prioritized over direction Outlook Expect continued chop and false moves until BTC clearly accepts above resistance or loses support. Bottom Line No breakout yet. Trade the range wait for confirmation for direction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Matthew_TradeRFX
Correction Is Not a Reversal — Gold Is Reloading 1. Market Structure Overview - Gold is still trading within a medium-term bullish structure, but price has entered a short-term corrective phase after failing to hold above the upper resistance zone. - Strong rejection occurred at the POC / resistance area 4.35x – 4.38x, confirming active profit-taking. The current price action is developing a classic ABC correction: - Wave A: Completed with a sharp pullback. - Wave B: Ongoing technical rebound. Importantly, price remains above the major moving averages, meaning the primary uptrend is still intact. This correction is technical in nature, not a trend reversal. 2. Market Context & Liquidity Behavior Sellers are active near the highs, but downside momentum remains controlled. The market is likely seeking liquidity clearance before deciding the next impulsive move. The 4.26x – 4.20x zone stands out as a key re-accumulation area where buyers may step back in. 3. Today’s Price Scenarios 🔹 Primary Scenario (High Probability) Price continues its corrective leg toward 4.26x – 4.20x. This zone acts as a decision point: Holding above it → supports re-accumulation and trend continuation. Strong breakdown → opens room for a deeper short-term correction. 🔹 Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability) Failure to reclaim strength after the correction may extend downside pressure. Confirmation only occurs if support is decisively broken with volume. 4. Intraday Trading Setups — Re-Accumulation Focus 📌 SETUP 1 – Intraday Sell (Correction Timing) XAUUSD SELL ZONE: 4369 – 4372 Take Profit: 4366 – 4361 Stop Loss: 4376 📌 SETUP 2 – Intraday Buy (Re-Accumulation Zone) XAUUSD BUY ZONE: 4262 – 4265 Take Profit: 4268 – 4273 Stop Loss: 4258 ⚠️ Always apply strict risk management to protect capital. 5. Summary & Trading Guidance Main Trend: Bullish Short-Term State: Correction → Re-accumulation Bias: Wait for price to reach key zones, avoid chasing highs 👉 Today’s session is a balancing phase. The market’s reaction at the support zone will define whether gold resumes its uptrend or extends the correction. Patience and discipline remain the optimal strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RexTraderSignal
EUR/USD Isn’t Crashing by AccidentEUR/USD – H1 Technical & Macro Breakdown Technical Structure - EUR/USD is currently trading in a clear short-term downtrend, defined by a descending trendline and repeated failures to reclaim the 34 & 89 EMAs. Each rebound attempt has been capped below dynamic resistance, confirming that sellers remain in control. - Price has now rotated back into a well-defined support zone, where short-term buyers are attempting to defend. However, this is defensive buying, not trend reversal behavior. As long as price remains below the descending trendline and below the EMA cluster, any bounce should be treated as a corrective pullback, not a bullish shift. Key technical logic: - Lower highs + lower lows → bearish structure intact - EMAs acting as dynamic resistance → trend pressure remains downward - Current support zone → potential short-term bounce, but not confirmation A sustained break back above the trendline and EMA alignment would be required to neutralize downside risk. Until then, the structure favors continuation pressure. Macro Drivers US Dollar Strength (Primary Driver) Recent market positioning reflects renewed demand for USD as expectations remain firm that US monetary policy will stay restrictive for longer. Even without new rate hikes, the Fed’s stance of “higher for longer” continues to support the dollar. Yield Differential Pressure US Treasury yields remain elevated relative to European yields. This yield spread continues to pull capital toward USD-denominated assets, pressuring EUR/USD lower. Eurozone Growth Concerns Markets remain cautious on the Eurozone outlook, with weak growth momentum and fragile demand. This limits EUR upside and makes the currency vulnerable whenever USD demand increases. Risk Sentiment Rotation Whenever global risk sentiment turns cautious, EUR tends to underperform against USD. The current environment favors defensive positioning, benefiting the dollar over risk-sensitive currencies. Forward Expectations Short-term: A technical bounce from support is possible, but likely corrective. Bias: Bearish while below trendline & EMAs. Invalidation: Only a clean break and acceptance above resistance would shift the narrative. Key Takeaway This is not panic selling. This is macro pressure aligning with technical structure. EUR/USD is being repriced lower because the dollar has the advantage — both technically and fundamentally. Until that balance changes, rebounds are opportunities for structure, not signals of reversal.
Long
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
ETH Isn’t Breaking Yet — It’s Compressing Power Inside the RangeETH/USD – 1H Quick Analysis Ethereum is trading inside a clearly defined sideways range, with price repeatedly rejecting the upper resistance zone (~3,000–3,020) while holding above the support zone (~2,780–2,820). The sharp sell-offs inside the box have been fully absorbed, followed by aggressive rebounds — a classic sign of range accumulation, not distribution. The recent push back toward resistance shows buyers are still active, but lack of acceptance above resistance confirms sellers remain in control at the highs. As long as ETH stays inside this range, price is likely to continue rotating between support and resistance, building liquidity on both sides. Key Levels Resistance: 3,000–3,020 Support: 2,780–2,820 Outlook Acceptance above resistance → expansion toward 3,080–3,120 Rejection → continuation of range rotation Bottom Line This is a wait-for-break structure. The real move starts only when ETH leaves the range with conviction.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
1
EURUSD Is Trapped Below Resistance — Distribution Before....EURUSD – H1 MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Market Structure EURUSD is currently trading within a short-term corrective structure after a strong impulsive decline. The recent rebound failed to break above the key resistance zone, confirming that sellers are still in control of the broader intraday trend. Price action shows: - A clear lower-high formation near the resistance zone. - Weak bullish follow-through after each bounce. - Compression around the mid-range, indicating distribution rather than accumulation. 2. Key Zones - Resistance Zone: 1.1750 – 1.1760 This zone has rejected price multiple times, acting as a supply area where sellers aggressively defend. - Support Zone: 1.1700 – 1.1710 This is the nearest liquidity pool and the first downside objective. 3. Price Behavior & Liquidity The sharp rejection from resistance followed by sideways consolidation suggests that the market is absorbing buy orders before continuation lower. The lack of strong bullish candles confirms that the rebound is corrective, not impulsive. This behavior typically precedes: - A stop-hunt below short-term consolidation - Continuation toward deeper liquidity zones 4. Scenario Outlook 🔽 Primary Scenario (Preferred): Bearish Continuation Price fails to reclaim the resistance zone Breakdown below intraday structure Targets: Target 1: 1.1720 Target 2: 1.1700 Target 3: 1.1685 (major liquidity draw) 🔼 Alternative Scenario Only if price breaks and holds above 1.1760 with strong momentum, the bearish setup is invalidated, and a deeper recovery may unfold. 5. Trading Bias Main Bias: Bearish Market State: Distribution → Liquidity Grab Strategy: Sell rallies near resistance, avoid chasing price in the middle of the range. Conclusion EURUSD is not building strength it is preparing for continuation. As long as price remains below the resistance zone, downside liquidity remains the dominant magnet. Patience and discipline are key; the market will reveal direction once liquidity is released.
Short
by RexTraderSignal
EURUSD Looks Calm — But Smart Money Is Setting the TrapEURUSD – H1 MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Current Market Structure EURUSD is trading inside a short-term corrective structure after the previous impulsive decline. Price has formed a lower-high sequence, confirming that the dominant intraday bias remains bearish. The recent bounce from the support zone is corrective in nature, not a trend reversal. Key observations: - Lower highs are clearly respected - Price is failing to regain previous breakdown levels - Structure remains below key resistance 2. Key Zones & Price Behavior Resistance Zone: 1.1748 – 1.1760 This zone aligns with prior structure highs and acts as a sell-side supply area. Repeated rejection here confirms seller control. Support Zone: 1.1700 – 1.1710 This is a short-term demand zone, but it has already been tested. Each retest weakens buyer strength. 3. Market Psychology The market is currently trapping late buyers who interpret the bounce as a reversal. In reality, this is a classic distribution phase inside a downtrend: - Smart money sells into strength - Retail traders buy the pullback - Liquidity builds above resistance before continuation lower This sideways behavior near resistance often precedes sharp downside expansion. 4. Scenarios Ahead Primary Scenario (High Probability – Bearish Continuation): - Price retests the resistance zone (1.1748 – 1.1760) - Fails to break and hold above - Strong rejection leads to downside continuation Targets: Target 1: 1.1720 Target 2: 1.1700 Target 3: 1.1685 (liquidity pool) Invalidation Scenario: - Only if H1 closes firmly above 1.1760 - And structure shifts to higher highs - Until then, all upside is corrective. 5. Trading Bias & Conclusion Bias: Sell rallies Market State: Correction within a bearish structure Strategy: Wait for rejection at resistance, follow structure — not emotion This is not a guessing market. The chart is clearly showing where liquidity is being built and where it wants to go. Patience and discipline remain the edge.
by RexTraderSignal
2
Wheat in Focus: How Ukraine, China, and Weather could move WheatWheat is one of the world’s most widely traded agricultural commodities, essential for food and animal feed. Prices are heavily influenced by global supply and demand, with major producers including the U.S., Russia, the EU, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine. Weather conditions, geopolitical events, and large importer activity can all create significant volatility in the market. Let’s break it down. 1. What Drives Wheat Prices Supply Factors Wheat supply is heavily shaped by the major exporting regions—Russia, the EU, Australia, the U.S., Canada, and Ukraine. Weather is the biggest swing factor: drought, heat stress, floods, or winterkill can quickly tighten global supply and spark rallies. Crop progress reports and yield updates show how each production cycle is developing, while geopolitics—especially in the Black Sea—can disrupt export flows overnight. Input costs like fertilizer and fuel influence how much farmers plant, and currency moves affect which exporters are most competitive. Together, these factors determine how much wheat the world can actually deliver to the market. To summarize: Major producers: Russia, EU, Australia, U.S., Canada, Ukraine Weather: drought, heat stress, winterkill, floods Crop progress: planting pace, crop conditions, yield expectations Geopolitics: Black Sea tensions, export bans, sanctions, port disruptions Input costs: fertilizer, fuel, logistics Currency impact: strong USD usually weighs on wheat prices Demand Factors Demand for wheat is driven by global food consumption, animal feed needs, and the buying behavior of major importers such as China, Egypt, and Indonesia. Economic conditions matter because stronger economies consume more food and feed. Price relationships with other grains like corn and rice can shift demand toward or away from wheat. Changes in trade flows—such as China sourcing more from the U.S. instead of the Black Sea—can quickly redirect global shipments. These factors help traders understand whether demand is strengthening or weakening relative to available supply. To summarize: Global consumption (food + feed use) Large importer buying: China, Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey Economic conditions in EM (Emerging Markets) Substitution vs. corn/rice Global trade flow shifts 2. Key Reports Traders Actually Need to Track Instead of monitoring everything, wheat traders focus on the handful of reports that truly move price: WASDE (Monthly) – The most important report in wheat trading. This is where global production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks get revised. Wheat can rip or dump instantly on WASDE changes. If you track only one thing, track WASDE. Weekly USDA Export Sales – This shows an immediate view of demand. Watch for: Big purchases from China, Egypt, Indonesia Surprising cancellations Shifts from Black Sea to U.S. buying It’s one of the fastest ways to spot demand changes ahead of price. Crop Progress (Weekly, in season) – Important only during planting, growing and harvesting periods. The report tracks: % planted % harvested Crop condition (% good/excellent) Poor Conditions generally = bullish. Strong Conditions generally = bearish Geopolitical headlines – In our opinion wheat is the most geopolitically sensitive commodity. Anything related to the following can cause immediate moves.: Corridor shutdowns Port attacks Export bans Ceasefire rumors This is the intraday volatility driver that news traders capitalize on. Weather in key regions (Daily / weekly) – Focus on the key regions of the U.S. Plains, Black Sea, Australia. Drought in these regions generally = bullish. Good moisture generally = bearish. Use simple sources like NOAA maps or short ag weather summaries (weather reports that impact agriculture). CFTC COT (Weekly) – This is for context and is not used for trading signals. It shows whether funds are heavily long or short. Only the extremes matter: Funds very short → short-covering rallies possible Funds very long → risk of liquidation selloffs This report is more relevant for swing and position traders. 3. Recent Market Drivers Peace-proposal speculation: Reports of a U.S. proposal involving Ukraine ceding Donbas triggered a fast selloff as markets priced in the possibility of Ukrainian exports normalizing. Zelenskiy has stated he won’t accept territorial concessions, so a confirmed ceasefire remains unlikely unless U.S./EU pressure increases. Market reaction: Wheat dumped immediately on the headline, but the move didn’t sustain — traders want confirmation, not speculation. China buying U.S. wheat: Ongoing chatter that China is shifting some purchases to the U.S. (no official tonnage yet). This is a supportive demand story worth monitoring. 4. Chart Analysis: Recent Price Action and What to expect The developing monthly VPOC for November 2025 has shifted higher, marking a potential change in market sentiment after three consecutive months of declining VPOCs. In addition, the developing VA for November appears unlikely to overlap with the previous month’s VA. This suggests that market conditions are changing and that the recent downward trend may be ending. Market based out around 520 and rallied from mid-October to early November, breaking 552’4 (previous seller defense) and reclaiming back above 559’6 daily level. This rally was likely supported by the potential U.S.–China trade deal and initial Chinese wheat purchases in early November. However, sellers stepped in at 570 (July’s VAL + monthly 1SD high), offering price back below 559’6. Market is now rotating inside a developing range between 559’6 and the 540–535’6 zone (October settlement/LVN) to establish value. Bearish Scenario A break and acceptance below 540 opens the door toward: 520 (October’s VPOC + monthly 0.5SD low) 510 (October low) 504’6 (monthly 1SD low) Catalyst: Any news of confirmed progress toward a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire → removal of war-premium → likely downside. Bullish Scenario If market accepts back above 559’6, sets up a move toward: 570 (July VAL / M 1SD high) — expect sellers here. 585’6 (July VPOC) if 570 is cleared Catalyst: Headline reversal or escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Neutral Scenario Without fresh catalysts, expect continued range rotation between 559’6 and 540, with the market establishing value in this zone. 5. Conclusion Wheat remains a headline-driven and weather-sensitive market, where geopolitical developments, major buyer activity, and crop conditions can quickly shift sentiment. Traders should monitor key reports and technical levels while staying aware of global supply and demand dynamics. With multiple factors in play, range rotations and sudden spikes or drops are likely until a clear catalyst drives the market decisively. What are your thoughts? Are you watching the headlines, weather, or technical levels for clues? Please share your insights below and give this post a boost so the rest of the community can join the conversation. Glossary Index for technical terms used: VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) VPOC (Volume Point of Control) SD (Standard Deviation) LVN (Low Value Node) VA (Value Area)
CBOT:ZW1!
by EdgeClear
XAUUSD 51st Record High of 2025 | Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutHistoric Context - A Record-Breaking Year According to the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Market Data released December 19, 2025: Gold futures have closed at record highs 51 times in 2025 Price has surged 66 percent year-to-date to 4387.30 USD per troy ounce This is gold's best annual performance since 1979 Silver has soared 131 percent in 2025, hitting 14 record highs Both metals are on pace for their biggest gains since 1979, the last year they hit this many records This historic context is critical for understanding current price action. We are not in a normal market environment. Gold is experiencing a generational bull run driven by central bank accumulation, geopolitical uncertainty, and monetary policy expectations. Current Market Context - December 20, 2025 Gold experienced volatility following the Federal Reserve December 18, 2025 policy decision. The central bank maintained its hawkish stance, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2026 than markets anticipated. Despite this headwind, gold recovered and hit another record high on December 19. The resilience above 4300 USD despite hawkish Fed rhetoric demonstrates the strength of underlying demand from central banks and institutional investors. Key Events This Week: December 18: Federal Reserve held rates steady, projected only two rate cuts for 2026 versus market expectations of three to four December 18: US Dollar Index surged following hawkish Fed commentary, initially pressuring gold December 19: Gold recovered to close at 51st record high of 2025 at 4387.30 USD according to WSJ December 19: CFTC COT report released showing strong speculative long positioning December 20: Price consolidating near 4338 USD within symmetrical triangle pattern Ongoing: PBOC and Chinese ETF buying continues despite record high prices Ongoing: Physical demand weakness in India and China as discounts widen to multi-year highs Technical Structure Analysis Pattern Identification - Symmetrical Triangle The 45-minute chart displays a textbook symmetrical triangle formation characterized by: Converging trendlines with lower highs and higher lows Decreasing volatility as price compresses toward the apex Volume declining during the consolidation phase Pattern duration of approximately 10-12 days Apex convergence point approaching within the next 24-48 hours Symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns approximately 55-60 percent of the time, but given the preceding choppy price action, this formation could break in either direction. Triangle Boundaries Upper Trendline (Descending Resistance): Connects the highs from December 12-13 around 4380-4390 USD Currently intersecting near 4355-4360 USD A decisive close above this trendline signals bullish breakout Lower Trendline (Ascending Support): Connects the lows from December 9-10 and December 18-19 Currently providing support near 4300-4310 USD A decisive close below this trendline signals bearish breakdown Key Price Levels Resistance Levels: 4355-4360 USD - Descending trendline resistance immediate 4380-4390 USD - Recent swing high and horizontal resistance 4400-4410 USD - Psychological resistance and previous rejection zone 4450-4475 USD - Major resistance from November 2025 highs 4500 USD - Psychological round number and measured move target Support Levels: 4310-4320 USD - Ascending trendline support immediate 4280-4290 USD - Horizontal support from December lows 4250-4260 USD - Previous consolidation zone 4200-4220 USD - Major support and psychological level 4150-4175 USD - Secondary support if breakdown accelerates Moving Average Analysis Price is oscillating around the 20-period moving average indicating indecision The 50-period moving average is relatively flat confirming the consolidation phase The 200-period moving average on higher timeframes remains in uptrend supporting long-term bullish bias A sustained move above the 20 and 50 MAs would confirm bullish momentum A breakdown below both MAs would signal bearish continuation RSI Analysis RSI on the 45-minute timeframe is currently neutral oscillating between 45-55 No overbought or oversold conditions present RSI is forming a similar compression pattern to price suggesting energy building for directional move Watch for RSI to break above 60 for bullish confirmation or below 40 for bearish confirmation Volume Analysis Volume has been declining during the triangle formation typical behavior before breakout Expect volume surge on the breakout candle to confirm validity Low volume breakouts often result in false moves and should be treated with caution Watch for volume at least 150 percent of average on breakout candle Fibonacci Analysis Measuring from the December low near 4200 USD to the December high near 4390 USD: 0.236 retracement: 4345 USD - Currently testing this level 0.382 retracement: 4317 USD - Aligns with triangle support 0.5 retracement: 4295 USD - Key level if support breaks 0.618 retracement: 4273 USD - Strong support zone Current price action around 4338 USD is testing the 0.236 Fibonacci level, a relatively shallow retracement suggesting buyers remain interested. CFTC Commitments of Traders Analysis - December 19, 2025 The latest COT report released December 19, 2025 provides critical insight into market positioning: Gold Futures Only Positions as of December 9, 2025: Open Interest: 432,569 contracts Non-Commercial Long: 268,485 contracts ( 62.1 percent of open interest) Non-Commercial Short: 44,599 contracts (10.3 percent of open interest) Commercial Long: 63,707 contracts (14.7 percent) Commercial Short: 326,286 contracts ( 75.4 percent ) Changes from December 2, 2025: Open Interest increased by 14,079 contracts Non-Commercial Longs added 7,154 contracts Non-Commercial Shorts added only 828 contracts Commercial Shorts added 10,791 contracts COT Interpretation: The positioning data reveals several important dynamics: Speculators (Non-Commercial) are heavily net long with 62.1 percent long versus only 10.3 percent short This represents a 6:1 long to short ratio among speculators - extreme bullish positioning Commercial hedgers (producers and merchants) are heavily short at 75.4 percent, which is normal hedging behavior in a bull market Open interest is increasing alongside price, confirming the uptrend has participation The continued addition of speculative longs suggests momentum traders remain committed to the bull case Warning Signal: Extreme speculative long positioning can precede corrections when longs begin to take profits. However, in strong trending markets, positioning can remain extreme for extended periods. The key is watching for a shift in the weekly changes - if longs start liquidating while price stalls, that would be a bearish signal. Physical Demand Analysis - Asia Market Weakness Reuters reported on December 19, 2025 that physical gold demand in Asia has weakened significantly due to record high prices: India Market: Dealers offering discounts of up to 37 USD per ounce to official domestic prices, up from 34 USD last week Domestic gold prices hit fresh record of 135,590 rupees per 10 grams Demand is roughly one quarter of normal levels according to PN Gadgil and Sons CEO Wedding season jewelry purchases dampened despite being peak demand period Demand expected to remain subdued as prices continue rising China Market: Bullion trading at discounts of up to 64 USD to global benchmark - highest in over five years This is the widest discount since August 2020 during COVID-19 pandemic Wholesale and retail demand described as incredibly weak by analyst Ross Norman However, ETF buying and PBOC purchases continue despite weak physical demand Other Asian Markets: Singapore: Trading from 0.5 USD discount to 2.2 USD premium Hong Kong: Trading from par to 1.8 USD premium Japan: Discounts up to 6.0 USD, though retail shops out of gold bar stocks Physical Demand Interpretation: The divergence between weak physical demand and strong prices is significant: Traditional price-sensitive buyers in India and China are stepping back at these levels However, institutional demand (ETFs, central banks) is offsetting physical weakness PBOC continues accumulating gold as part of reserve diversification strategy This suggests the rally is being driven by institutional and speculative flows rather than traditional jewelry demand A correction could occur if institutional buying slows, as physical demand is unlikely to provide support at current prices Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve Policy Impact The December 18, 2025 FOMC meeting delivered several key takeaways affecting gold: Interest rates held steady as expected but forward guidance was more hawkish than anticipated Dot plot projections showed median expectation of only two rate cuts in 2026 Fed Chair emphasized data dependency and willingness to maintain restrictive policy longer if needed Inflation concerns remain despite progress with services inflation proving sticky Labor market remains resilient reducing urgency for rate cuts Implications for Gold: Higher-for-longer interest rates are traditionally bearish for gold as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, gold has shown remarkable resilience to rate expectations in 2024-2025, suggesting other factors are driving demand. US Dollar Dynamics The US Dollar Index strengthened following the hawkish Fed reaching multi-week highs Dollar strength typically pressures gold prices due to inverse correlation However the correlation has weakened in recent months as both assets attract safe-haven flows Watch DXY price action for confirmation of gold direction A reversal in dollar strength would provide tailwind for gold Central Bank Demand Central bank gold purchases remain a crucial support factor despite weak retail demand: Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for consecutive years PBOC (People's Bank of China) continues accumulating gold alongside Chinese ETF buying according to analyst Ross Norman India central bank has increased gold reserves significantly Emerging market central banks continue accumulating gold as reserve diversification from USD This institutional and central bank demand is offsetting weak physical retail demand in Asia Central bank buying provides structural floor under prices even when retail demand weakens Geopolitical Factors Safe-haven demand remains elevated due to: Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with no resolution in sight Middle East tensions remain elevated with ongoing regional instability US-China relations remain strained with trade and technology disputes Global election cycle creating policy uncertainty Debt ceiling and fiscal concerns in major economies These factors support gold safe-haven bid and help explain its resilience despite hawkish Fed policy. Directional Bias Assessment Arguments for Bullish Breakout: Gold has hit 51 record highs in 2025 - momentum clearly favors bulls Best annual performance since 1979 with 66 percent YTD gains Long-term uptrend remains intact on daily and weekly timeframes COT data shows speculators adding to long positions with 62.1 percent long exposure Central bank and ETF demand continues despite weak physical demand PBOC accumulation ongoing according to analyst reports Geopolitical tensions maintaining safe-haven bid Technical measured move target of 4480-4500 USD if triangle breaks higher Arguments for Bearish Breakdown: Extreme speculative long positioning (6:1 ratio) creates correction risk Physical demand in India at one quarter of normal levels China discounts at 64 USD - widest since August 2020 Hawkish Fed policy supporting stronger dollar and higher yields Price has risen 66 percent in one year - mean reversion risk elevated Holiday liquidity reduction could exacerbate any profit-taking Technical measured move target of 4200-4220 USD if triangle breaks lower My Assessment - Cautiously Bullish with Correction Risk: The weight of evidence supports the bull case given the historic momentum and institutional demand. However, several warning signs warrant caution: Extreme speculative positioning creates vulnerability to profit-taking Physical demand weakness in Asia suggests price-sensitive buyers are exhausted The rally is increasingly dependent on institutional flows rather than broad-based demand Short-term (next 1-2 weeks): Neutral to slightly bearish. The combination of extreme positioning, weak physical demand, and holiday liquidity conditions creates correction risk. A pullback to 4280-4320 USD would be healthy and provide better entry for longs. Long-term (1-3 months): Bullish. The structural drivers (central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, monetary policy expectations) remain intact. Any correction should be viewed as buying opportunity. Targets of 4500-4600 USD remain valid for Q1 2026. Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively above 4360 USD upper trendline Volume on breakout candle exceeds 150 percent of 20-period average RSI breaks above 60 confirming momentum Ideally accompanied by dollar weakness DXY declining Trade Parameters: Entry: 4365-4370 USD on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 4330 USD below triangle midpoint Target 1: 4400-4410 USD previous resistance Target 2: 4450-4460 USD November highs Target 3: 4500-4520 USD measured move target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2.5 to first target Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively below 4300 USD lower trendline Volume on breakdown candle exceeds 150 percent of 20-period average RSI breaks below 40 confirming bearish momentum Ideally accompanied by dollar strength DXY rising Trade Parameters: Entry: 4295-4300 USD on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: 4340 USD above triangle midpoint Target 1: 4250-4260 USD horizontal support Target 2: 4200-4220 USD major support Target 3: 4150-4175 USD measured move target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2 to first target Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing should not exceed 1-2 percent risk per trade given current volatility Reduce position size during holiday period due to lower liquidity Use hard stop losses do not move stops further from entry Scale out of positions at each target level 33 percent at each target Move stop to breakeven after first target achieved Avoid holding large positions over weekend given geopolitical risks Monitor DXY and Treasury yields for confirmation of gold direction Be prepared for false breakouts wait for candle close confirmation Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 4250 USD on daily timeframe Triangle breaks down with volume confirmation DXY breaks to new highs above 110 Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 4410 USD on daily timeframe Triangle breaks up with volume confirmation DXY reverses sharply below 106 Conclusion OANDA:XAUUSD has delivered a historic performance in 2025 with 51 record highs and 66 percent gains - the best year since 1979. The precious metal is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle near 4338 USD, setting up for the next directional move. Key Data Points: 51 record highs in 2025 according to Dow Jones Market Data 66 percent YTD gains - best since 1979 COT shows 62.1 percent speculative long positioning (6:1 long/short ratio) India physical demand at 25 percent of normal levels China discounts at 64 USD - widest since August 2020 PBOC and ETF buying continues despite weak retail demand Key Takeaways: The symmetrical triangle is approaching its apex suggesting a breakout is imminent within the next 24-72 hours Historic momentum (51 records) supports bullish bias but extreme positioning creates correction risk Physical demand weakness in Asia is a warning sign that price-sensitive buyers are exhausted Institutional demand (central banks, ETFs) is currently offsetting retail weakness Short-term bias is neutral with correction risk; long-term bias remains bullish Bullish breakout targets 4450-4500 USD; bearish breakdown targets 4250-4280 USD Risk management is critical given extreme positioning and holiday liquidity conditions The optimal approach is to wait for confirmed breakout with volume rather than anticipating direction. Given the extreme speculative positioning, any breakdown could trigger rapid profit-taking. Conversely, a breakout to new highs could accelerate as shorts cover. Trade the breakout, not the anticipation. Let price confirm direction before committing capital. This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
TVC:GOLD
by officialjackofalltrades
USDJPY: Sell the Rally, Chasing Is a Mistake?Hello traders, For USDJPY, I am currently leaning more toward a short-term BEARISH scenario. The key reason comes from Japan’s side: officials have repeatedly signaled their dissatisfaction with one-sided FX moves and left the door open for possible action if the yen weakens excessively. This keeps the market cautious about intervention risk , causing bullish momentum on USDJPY to lose traction. Looking at the chart, after a strong rally, price is now entering a cooling and consolidation phase , with repeated pullbacks being sold into . This is a typical corrective behavior: buyers are no longer pushing smoothly, while sellers step in aggressively whenever price rebounds into nearby resistance. The scenario I favor is SELL on rallies. Price may attempt another push toward the upper resistance area, but is likely to roll over and decline toward the nearest support . If selling pressure strengthens, the downside move could extend further before the market finds balance again. In summary, with news-driven psychological pressure weighing on buyers , I prefer to patiently wait for pullbacks to sell rather than chase price higher. The beauty of the market is simple: when you stay disciplined and wait for the right moment, the best opportunities often appear after periods of tight consolidation and hesitation.
Short
by Paradise_Noir
1
TROW Long 1D Investment Conservative TradeConservative Trade + long impulse + 1/2 correction + SOS level + supporting zone ? ultravolume 2Sp+ = perforated T2 + 1/2 correction + volumed 2Sp+ Calculated affordable virtual stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit - outside 1D + inside 1M Monthly CounterTrend "- short balance + expanding ICE + support zone + biggest volume 2Sp+ + weak test + 1/2 correction" Yearly Trend " '+ long impulse + T2 level + support zone - deep correction + volumed interacting bar"
NASDAQ:TROWLong
by MishaSuvorov
APPL Breakdown: BOS & CHoCH NASDAQ:AAPL On the H1 timeframe, the market structure has already produced a downside BOS, followed by a confirmed CHoCH. This clearly indicates that bullish momentum has ended and the market has shifted into a bearish trend. Price has rejected from a bearish Order Block and FVG zone on the upside, highlighting strong institutional selling pressure. As long as price remains below this resistance, selling pressure is expected to remain active. MACD also supports this analysis, with the MACD line below the signal line and the histogram in the negative zone, confirming momentum weakness and bearish continuation. Bias: As long as price stays below 274.00, sell continuation is expected. Current Price / Sell: 270.78 Stop Loss: 274.00 Targets: TP1: 265.50 TP2: 260.00 Disclaimer This chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves high risk; always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Markovic_VascoView