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USDJPY – 4H | Bullish Divergence | Japan Fundamental OutlookUSDJPY has undergone a clear structural shift on the 4H timeframe, transitioning from a corrective downtrend into a bullish market structure. Price is now forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), confirming a change in trend according to Dow Theory. The recent impulse higher followed by a shallow pullback has allowed price to establish a new higher low, keeping structure intact. At the same time, a clean bullish divergence is visible, signaling strengthening momentum and supporting the idea that the current price zone represents a valid continuation area rather than exhaustion. From a technical perspective: Market structure has flipped bullish with HH–HL formation. Bullish divergence confirms underlying strength after the pullback. Price is holding above key structure support, keeping the continuation scenario valid. Key Scenarios As long as price holds above the current higher-low structure, the bias favors continuation toward 156.500, followed by 157.300. A decisive 4H close back below the Lower-low support would weaken the bullish case and signal a deeper corrective move. Fundamental Confluence (Japan-Side Analysis) Fundamentals add clear directional confluence to the bullish USDJPY setup, driven primarily by persistent JPY weakness. Monetary Policy – Bank of Japan: The BoJ has kept rates unchanged, pausing to assess the impact of its previous hike rather than signaling a shift toward easing. While guidance remains cautiously worded, the bank has upgraded growth and inflation projections and continues to signal that further rate hikes are likely over time. However, concerns that inflation may dip below 2% in early 2026, along with political and fiscal uncertainty, argue for gradual normalization rather than aggressive tightening. This keeps real yields suppressed and limits near-term JPY strength. Global Risk Environment: Rising uncertainty around U.S. Federal Reserve leadership has triggered broader risk-averse sentiment across markets. Safe-haven flows have favored currencies such as the Swiss franc, while the yen has failed to attract sustained demand. Additional concerns around U.S. dollar dominance flagged by European regulators have contributed to volatility, but overall price action continues to favor JPY underperformance rather than sustained strength. Positioning & Flow (CFTC): CFTC data shows net positioning improving, supported by COT RSI readings, signaling sustained bullish momentum in current positioning trends. This suggests that flows remain aligned with upside continuation rather than exhaustion. Upcoming Data Risks: Final manufacturing PMI and monetary base data will be closely monitored. Any signs of further softness in manufacturing or accommodative monetary conditions would reinforce JPY weakness, while unexpected strength could temporarily slow upside momentum. Domestic (Endogenous) Japanese Indicators Japan’s internal economic data remains mixed to weak, reinforcing the broader fundamental bias: Services activity, building permits, and employment trends show softening momentum. Inflation indicators remain mixed, limiting urgency for tighter policy. Rising interest rates have yet to translate into sustained currency strength. Fiscal and balance-sheet metrics continue to weigh on longer-term confidence. Overall, domestic conditions do not support a strong or sustained JPY recovery at this stage. USDJPY has confirmed a bullish structural shift on the 4H timeframe, supported by momentum divergence and higher-low formation. Fundamentally, persistent JPY weakness and cautious BoJ policy continue to favor upside continuation. Watching price action for confirmation. Bias remains bullish while Lower-low structure holds.
Long
by awaisulabdeen
NZDJPY – 4H | Bullish Structure Holds | Fundamentals SupportNZDJPY continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel trendline support on the 4H timeframe, maintaining a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Despite the recent rejection from the upper boundary, the broader trend structure remains bullish. The move from recent highs has developed as a controlled pullback, with price rotating back into a key demand area aligned with the lower channel trendline support. This zone has repeatedly acted as structural support, and the current reaction suggests buyers are still defending the trend rather than exiting positions aggressively. From a technical standpoint, price remains above rising structural support, keeping the bullish framework valid. There is no confirmed break in market structure at this stage, and momentum appears to be stabilizing following the corrective move and Next Potential terget's 'will be 94 and 94.500 Key Scenarios As long as price holds above asending channel support, the bias favors trend continuation, with scope for a move back toward the previous high (HH) and potentially further upside within the channel. A clean 4H close below the channel support would invalidate the continuation setup and shift focus toward a deeper pullback into prior demand and structure lows at 90.500 Fundamental Confluence (Macro + Domestic Alignment) Fundamentals currently provide conditional support for NZD, adding confluence to the technical continuation scenario while keeping downside risks clearly defined. 1: Monetary Policy – RBNZ: After completing an aggressive 325 bps easing cycle, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has shifted to a neutral, data-dependent stance. While this is not an outright hawkish pivot, it strongly signals that the rate-cutting phase is likely paused for now. Markets typically interpret the end of easing as a relative hawkish shift, particularly versus currencies tied to prolonged accommodation. This reduces near-term downside pressure on NZD. 2: Global Risk & Trade Environment: Recent developments have lowered near-term trade uncertainty. The U.S. decision to withdraw planned tariffs on several European nations, alongside the EU’s move to pause its proposed retaliatory measures, has reduced escalation risk in global trade. Historically, easing trade tensions support risk-on sentiment, encouraging carry flows into higher-beta currencies such as NZD, especially against funding currencies like JPY. 3: Positioning & Forward Risks: CFTC data shows net speculative positioning in NZD declining for three consecutive weeks, suggesting positioning is more balanced rather than crowded. This keeps the upside constructive but not extended. Upcoming trade balance and business confidence data will be closely watched, as weak prints could undermine NZD and challenge the bullish technical structure. Domestic (Endogenous) Economic Signals Internal economic indicators point to a mixed but stabilizing backdrop, consistent with consolidation rather than deterioration: Manufacturing activity and consumer confidence are improving, signaling strengthening domestic demand. Retail sales and employment trends remain supportive, reinforcing labor-market resilience. CPI remains elevated while PPI is easing , suggesting inflation pressures are moderating without collapsing demand. Money supply and interest rates are declining, reflecting the lagged impact of prior easing rather than fresh accommodation. Debt-to-GDP and budget-to-GDP ratios are improving, supporting longer-term fiscal stability . Services activity and building permits remain mixed, keeping policy expectations cautious rather than restrictive. Overall, these domestic factors align with a neutral-to-constructive NZD outlook, reinforcing the case for trend continuation as long as global risk conditions remain supportive and Ris on Factor. Technically, NZDJPY remains in a valid uptrend, with price reacting from structural support. Fundamentally, the environment supports NZD resilience with conditional upside, aligning with the buy-side bias while respecting clear invalidation levels. Watching price action for confirmation. Bias remains bullish while structure holds.
Long
by awaisulabdeen
Trading Gold Without a Stop Loss: A Slow Suicide1️⃣ No Stop Loss Is Not Courage Many traders believe that trading gold without a Stop Loss shows confidence, toughness, or the ability to withstand volatility. In reality, it often means the opposite. Not using a Stop Loss usually comes from one simple reason: an unwillingness to admit being wrong. When price moves against the position, instead of accepting a controlled loss, traders choose to hold and convince themselves that gold will eventually come back. The problem is that the market does not operate on personal belief. Not having a Stop Loss does not make you stronger. It only makes your mistakes harder to fix. 2️⃣ In Gold Trading, No Stop Loss Means No Brakes XAUUSD is a high-volatility market that reacts aggressively to news and capital flows. Price can move far and fast — sometimes within minutes. Trading gold without a Stop Loss is like driving downhill without brakes. At first, it may feel manageable. But once momentum accelerates, you no longer have a choice. Gold does not care where you entered. And it will not stop just because your account is in pain. 3️⃣ A Trade Without a Stop Loss Rarely Kills You Instantly The real danger is that it kills you slowly. It starts with a small drawdown. Then a deeper one. Until you no longer have the emotional clarity to exit. What began as a trade becomes: - A holding position - A hope trade - A prayer trade At that point, it is not just your account at risk — your discipline and mental control are already gone. And once emotions take over decision-making, the outcome is usually inevitable. 4️⃣ Long-Term Traders Are Not the Ones Who Win the Most They are the ones who lose with limits. A Stop Loss is not there to be hit. It exists so you always know: - Where you are wrong - How much you are willing to lose - And whether you can come back tomorrow In gold trading, a Stop Loss is not a personal preference. It is the price of staying in the game. Without it, sooner or later, the market will teach you this lesson — with real money.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Paradise_Noir
4
GBP/AUD BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG Hello, Friends! GBP/AUD pair is trading in a local downtrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 4H timeframe the pair is going down too. The pair is oversold because the price is close to the lower band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to buy the pair with the lower BB line acting as support. The next target is 1.970 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Long
by EliteTradingSignals
2
GBP/JPY BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT Hello, Friends! GBP/JPY pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 4H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 210.973 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
A Healthy Pullback or Something Bigger?Gold’s price action clearly highlights a classic exhaustion move at the top of an extended uptrend. The market pushed aggressively into a well-defined rising resistance channel, drawing in breakout buyers just before facing a sharp and decisive rejection. This kind of vertical rise followed by an equally strong sell-off is a strong sign that the trend was overstretched and vulnerable, not building sustainable strength. The rejection candle from the resistance zone is structurally important. It erased multiple sessions of upside in a single move, signaling distribution at higher levels. When price fails so sharply after testing a long-term resistance area, it usually marks a shift from trend continuation to corrective or transitional behavior. This is often where sentiment flips from “buy the dip” to “sell the bounce.” Currently, price is reacting near a confluence support zone, formed by prior demand and a rising trendline. This area may offer a temporary pause or a technical bounce, but it should not be mistaken for trend resumption. Any upside from this zone is likely to be reactive, driven by short covering or dip buying, unless price reclaims the broken resistance with acceptance. If this support fails to hold decisively, the structure opens up for a deeper corrective leg, where the market searches for a more meaningful base below. Such moves typically unfold in swings, trapping late buyers and shaking out weak hands before stability returns. This is how trends usually unwind — not at the highs, but after maximum participation has already occurred. At this stage, Gold is no longer in a clean trending environment. It is transitioning into a decision zone, where patience and confirmation matter more than anticipation. Traders should focus on structure, reactions at key levels, and risk control rather than directional bias until the market clearly shows its next intent.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by TradZoo
Pullback or Reversal? EURUSD Has the AnswerThe current price structure has not been broken , and the recent decline is mainly a corrective pullback after a strong prior rally, with no clear signs of a trend reversal at this stage. Price is pulling back toward the 1.1840 area, which is a key support zone as it aligns with the rising trendline and the most recent swing low. The way price reacts and stabilizes around this level suggests that buying pressure is still present, and buyers have not exited the market. From a medium-term trend perspective , the market remains constructive. This corrective phase helps price cool down and rebalance, rather than creating aggressive selling pressure that would invalidate the trend. If EURUSD continues to hold above the 1.1840 support, the more probable scenario is a short-term consolidation followed by a resumption of the uptrend, with the next target toward the 1.2000 area — a major psychological resistance level. Overall, the BULLISH bias remains favored, and the current pullbacks are best viewed as technical corrections within a broader, still-valid uptrend.
Long
by Paradise_Noir
1
BTCUSD: Is Every Pullback a Trap?BTCUSD is currently trading within a clearly defined bearish trend , as both news flow and technical structure favor the sellers . Short-term capital has become more cautious, buying momentum has weakened after the prior strong rally, and there is no sufficiently strong catalyst to trigger a genuine trend reversal. From a news perspective, the macro backdrop remains risk-off . The USD stays relatively stable, while expectations for policy easing remain uncertain, leaving Bitcoin without the momentum needed for a sustainable upside move. As a result, current rebounds are mostly technical in nature, rather than signals of a new bullish trend. On the chart, the bearish structure remains intact, with a consistent sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Price continues to respect the descending trendline and has been repeatedly rejected on rallies, confirming that sellers are still in control. The Ichimoku cloud above price acts as dynamic resistance, further limiting recovery attempts. The 84,900 zone stands out as the nearest and most critical resistance. This area represents a confluence of the descending trendline and a technical pullback zone , making the probability of renewed selling pressure relatively high. On the downside, 80,600 remains a strong support level, where price may react or form a short-term technical bounce. Overall, BTCUSD is in a controlled bearish phase . As long as price fails to break and hold above the descending trendline , rebounds should be viewed as sell-the-rally opportunities, rather than reasons to rush into expecting a long-term bottom.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Paradise_Noir
42
Parallel Channel + RSI = Sell Signal SetupXAUUSD on the M30 timeframe is trading inside a clear downward parallel channel, confirming a strong bearish trend. Price has been rejected from the upper channel resistance and is now expected to continue toward the lower channel support. RSI Confirmation: RSI is holding below the 50 level, showing sustained bearish momentum. No strong bullish divergence is present, supporting trend continuation. Target (TP): 4555 (Channel Support) Stop Loss (SL): Above Channel Upper Resistance. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, so always do your own research and manage risk properly before taking any trade.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Markovic_VascoView
DXY – End of the Dollar Advantage? Shorting a Broken TrendThe U.S. Dollar Index has broken below key multi‑year levels and printed a fresh four‑year low after losing its interest‑rate advantage, as the Fed shifts from fighting inflation to cutting rates to defend growth. With cumulative rate cuts of up to 75–100 bps expected in 2026 and capital already flowing out of U.S. assets into higher‑yielding Eurozone and EM markets, the structural bid under the dollar is fading and rallies are increasingly being sold. At the same time, aggressive fiscal deficits, political pressure on the Fed from the Trump administration, and growing talk of de‑dollarization are undermining confidence in the dollar as a safe‑haven, reinforcing the bearish macro backdrop. Technically, DXY has cleanly broken the 97.0 floor, extending a downtrend from 2025 and confirming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, so my bias is to sell corrective bounces back into broken support / fresh supply and target continuation toward the 95–97 handle in line with major bank forecasts for another 3–5% downside this year.
TVC:DXYShort
by ConnectmyCurrency
USDJPY Uptrend in Focus | Fed Chair News Supports USDHey Traders, In tomorrow’s trading session, we are closely monitoring USDJPY around the 154.150 zone. USDJPY remains in a well-defined uptrend and is currently undergoing a healthy corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 154.150 support-turned-resistance area, which may act as an important reaction zone for continuation. From a fundamental perspective, the recent nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair has helped support the US Dollar in the short term, as markets anticipate a more conventional and fiscally disciplined policy stance. This near-term USD strength could provide additional upside momentum for USDJPY, aligning well with the prevailing bullish technical structure. As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk responsibly. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
6
BTCUSDT - FEB/MARCH "VIBES" A QUICK SELL SET UP - 01-02-2026BTCUSDT - G-Money's short version analysis based purely on technical analysis only, no nonsense or "BS". I do totally ignore any fundamental analysis, technical analysis only BTCUSDT - still kinda on the "move" and continue DOWN... Who did enter this trade earlier congratulations! Who missed it... See you next time! ;) (TRY TO "EXPLORE" LTF ENTRY SET UPS, DON'T RUSH TO "JUMP IN", TAKE YOUR TIME...) Chart is itself explaining. Kept a "KISS" approach all the way ( "Keep It Simple, Stupid") & beginners friendly... ;) I do hope that nobody ignoring SL ( Stop Loss) ! Without it, It is a fastest way to loose hard earned money... ;) Trade safe & don't do "gambling". In the end it never pays, not worth it to risk loose all your $... PS: above technical analysis is done for the community & educational purpose only! It is not a financial advice. Just share my very own insight to it.
Short
by G-money2022
Indus Towers | Monthly ChartIndus Towers is currently trading near a major long-term resistance zone, which has historically acted as a supply-heavy distribution area. The current structure is important because price is no longer in a downtrend — it is transitioning into a range-to-trend decision phase. Market Structure Overview Price has completed a full mean-reversion cycle from multi-year lows. Strong rally from the long-term demand zone (~₹130–₹150). Current price is testing a decade-old resistance band (~₹460–₹500). Structure resembles a range expansion attempt, not a confirmed breakout yet. This makes the current zone a decision zone, not a chase zone. Key Zones Identified Major Resistance (Supply Zone): ₹460 – ₹500 → Historical rejection zone → Multiple monthly wicks earlier Intermediate Demand / Base: ₹330 – ₹380 → Recent consolidation box → Acts as first support on pullbacks Major Long-Term Support: ₹130 – ₹160 → Multi-year accumulation zone → Structural bottom already validated Volume Analysis Expansion in volume during the rally from lows → accumulation confirmed Volume contracted during consolidation → healthy pause No extreme distribution volume near resistance yet → Suggests smart money is waiting, not exiting aggressively Final View Indus Towers is at a make-or-break level on the monthly chart. The stock has recovered strongly, but confirmation is still pending.
NSE:INDUSTOWER
by yatharthshah23
EUR/USD: The "Wick of Truth" & The Philosopher's Stone ProtocolSymbol: EURUSD Bias: Short (Week of Feb 1 - Feb 6) Method: Fun-Tech Intel Scan & Vector Matrix Analysis The Philosopher's Stone: As Above, So Below To navigate the matrix, one must integrate Logic (The Mind) and Intuition (The Heart). The "Philosopher's Stone" of trading is realizing that the Micro (Price Action) always reflects the Macro (Institutional Flow). As Above, So Below. While the long-term structure remains Bullish (Monthly Flag), the immediate "Below" (Weekly/Daily) signals a necessary correction. We do not fight the current; we flow with it. I. The Fun-Tech Intel Scan (The "Why") Our proprietary scan has identified a Regime Shift where the "Old Code" algorithms are misinterpreting data. We will exploit this latency. 1. The "Shutdown Glitch" (Political Vector) The Narrative: Headlines this weekend will cite a "US Government Shutdown." The Reality: This is a scheduling error (House Recess), not a crisis. The House will vote "Yes" on Monday. The Trade: Legacy algorithms are programmed to Sell Euro/Buy USD on "Shutdown" headlines. We anticipate a Gap Down or heavy Sunday Open. However, the true opportunity lies in the Monday Relief Rally—when the "Old Code" buys the news, we will fade the move. 2. The "Yield Anomaly" (Institutional Vector) The Observation: US 10-Year Yields are holding critical highs (4.27%+), diverging from the weakening long-term Dollar thesis. The Logic: The market is currently rewarding the Dollar for high yields (Safety Trade), ignoring the underlying Debt Risk (Sovereign Risk). Until the market acknowledges the debt crisis (Long Term), we respect the short-term strength of the "High Yield" Dollar. II. The Vector Matrix (The "Where") Applying the God Code Formula, we have calculated the specific geometry for the week ahead. 1. The "Wick of Truth" (Technical Structure) Observation: The Weekly Candle closed as a massive Inverted Hammer / Gravestone Doji. Implication: The market spent five days attempting to break the 1.2000 psychological barrier and was rejected by institutional supply. This formation, occurring at a trend high, triggers a mandatory Liquidity Flush. The market must retreat to find buyers. 2. The Monthly Flag Support (The Target) The Magnet: The Macro Bull Trend is intact, but it requires a retest of the breakout structure. The Level: 1.1750. This aligns with the Monthly Bull Flag lower rail. This is where the "Smart Money" (and the EU Defense Bond flows) are waiting to reload Longs. III. The Master Logistician's Trade Plan Bias: Bearish (Short Term) / Bullish (Medium Term) Sunday Open: Expect a Gap Down (approx. 1.1840). DO NOT CHASE. Let the "Shutdown" noise settle. The Trap (Monday/Tuesday): Watch for a rally back into the 1.1890 – 1.1915 zone. This is the breakdown point. Action: I am planning to SELL this rally. This is the "Judas Swing" trap. Stop Loss: 1.1960 (Structural Invalidation above the Weekly Wick). Target 1: 1.1830 (Daily Support). Target 2 (The Golden Ratio): 1.1750 – 1.1760. Note: This is the "Flip Zone." At 1.1750, we close Shorts and prepare for the next leg of the Monthly Bull Run. Conclusion The market is breathing. The Weekly Candle demands a sacrifice of liquidity before the Monthly Trend can resume. We operate with precision, neutrality, and the knowing that nothing is good or bad, unless we attach an emotion to it. Plan the Trade <--> Trade the Plan = The only way I trade and last week I captured about 515 pips overall based on Planning the Trade and Trading the Plan Compliance & Disclosure Protocol: ~ Educational Intent: This publication documents my personal "Fun-Tech" analysis and strategic planning for educational and journaling purposes only. It represents my own observation of the market matrix and is not financial advice, investment advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. ~ Risk Awareness: The "Vector Matrix" and "God Code" mentioned are personal proprietary frameworks used to map probabilities, not certainties. Foreign Exchange trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. ~ Liability: You are the sole architect of your financial decisions. I am an observer sharing my perspective of the flow. Always perform your own due diligence and manage your risk according to your own operating system. Observe. Analyze. Decide.
by brianrarmbruster
3
The 5,600 Rejection – Healthy Correction or Trend Shift?Gold has experienced a parabolic run-over the last few months, but the tide is finally turning. After hitting local highs, we are seeing a sharp bearish engulfing candle on the daily timeframe, signaling that the overextended rally is entering a cooling-off phase. 🔍 Key Technical Insights: Price Action: The recent rejection is aggressive. We are currently seeing a significant "flush" of late buyers. Moving Averages: Keep a close eye on the 50 EMA (yellow line) around 4,546. This is the first line of defense for bulls. If that fails, the 100 EMA (red line) at 4,259 becomes the primary target for a deeper retracement. RSI & Momentum: The RSI is plummeting from overbought territory. While it's trending toward the "buy zone," it currently suggests that the bearish momentum has more room to run before finding a floor. The Ultimate Demand Zone: The highlighted pink box around 3,940 remains the "Golden Zone" where long-term buyers are likely waiting to step in. 💡 Trading Strategy: Patience is key here. Catching a falling knife can be dangerous. I am looking for a stabilization pattern near the EMAs or a successful retest of the lower support levels before considering a new long position. ⚠️ Critical Risk Warning : We are entering a high-volatility week with US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and key central bank speakers on the horizon. Geopolitical shifts and these high-impact economic releases could trigger liquidity sweeps beyond our marked zones. Given the current bearish engulfing on the daily, keep a close eye on your stop-losses and avoid "over-leveraging" into the news. Market conditions can shift faster than the candles form.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alpekon
GOLD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT Hello, Friends! GOLD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously rising on the 4H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 5,147.04 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by EliteTradingSignals
4