$SPY
Earnings Season Kick Off !!
The trade I'm in its a bearish trade using a Debit Put Spread to keep THETA under control and hold the spikes if any.
$SPY
-100 X FEB 17 / 36 DTE / 370 PUT (SELL LEG)
+100 X FEB 17 / 36 DTE / 380 PUT (BUY LEG)
MAX LOSS = -$14,900
MAX PROFIT = +$85,100
*The goal / target is to collect at least 65%-70% of max profit around...
TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3863,
we can go for 3880 > 3913 > 3924 > 3943 > 3965 > 3979 > 3995.
>To the upside, the level I'm looking it right now is the 3860, that's the POC of those last 12 days, we need to trade/bid above so we can try to break the LIS 3913/3915, where BULLS are losing the battle.
TP2> If we manage to Trade below MAIN POC...
TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3841,
we can go for 3858 > 3880 > 3913 > 3924 > 3943 > 3965 > 3979 > 3995.
>To the upside, the level I'm looking it right now is the 3860, that's the POC of those last 11 days, we need to trade/bid above so we can try to break the LIS 3913/3915, where BULLS are losing the battle.
TP2> If we manage to Trade below...
The picture above is a LOTTO PLAY I took this morning, end up buying 4250 ES CALL 6DTE for an avg of $11 at 8:07am (we were trading around 4054 level) , after the report in 2 minutes ES spiked to 4180 and my options price went to $30 Great I was up +160%, but with IV CRUSH + MKT HEADING LOWER 50 points before the bell, my OPTIONS that I got before 8:10am were...
TP1>
if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4054, we can test > 4081 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221
TP2>
if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4054 > we can test > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped)
*All those levels will be INVALID as tomorrow 2:00 PM we will have FOMC Interest Rates REPORT ! GET READY for LOTTO TRADES. $ES can move again...
I decided to close all my NAKED PUT trades instead of Hedging with $SPY, the reason to that is the move tomorrow can offset my HEDGE if goes against me, even with Beta Weight Portfolio.
So in this case I will reestablish all positions once we are over with the uncertainty, and that's until FOMC (Wednesday 2:00pm).
New Trade $DIS
Naked Put
Strike $75
Premium $0.43 x 3 contract = $129.00
Adding to the previous contracts at the same Strike 75 for a total credit of $563.00
New Trade $TSLA
Naked Put
Strike $99
Premium $0.41 x 3 contract = $123.00
Adding to the previous contracts Strikes 96 and 98 for a total credit of $563.00
THETA MACHINE UPDATE
No New Trades Today
I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day.
Overall POP = 84%
POP = Probability of Profit
*Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13).
With that said, I will...
