Types of Global Trade WarIntroduction
A global trade war occurs when nations impose tariffs, quotas, or other trade barriers against each other in retaliation for perceived unfair trade practices. These conflicts often stem from disputes over trade imbalances, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, or protectionist policies. In a world where globalization has tightly interconnected economies, trade wars can have far-reaching consequences—affecting industries, consumers, financial markets, and diplomatic relations.
Trade wars are not new. From the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 in the United States to the U.S.-China trade conflict that began in 2018, the concept has evolved alongside the global economy. Today’s trade wars extend beyond simple tariff disputes to include technology restrictions, digital trade barriers, and strategic economic decoupling. Understanding the types of trade wars helps explain how economic competition shapes global power dynamics.
1. Tariff-Based Trade Wars
Definition
Tariff-based trade wars occur when countries impose import duties (taxes) on foreign goods to protect domestic industries or punish other nations. These tariffs make imported goods more expensive, discouraging their purchase and promoting local alternatives.
Characteristics
Involves direct taxation on goods crossing borders.
Often used as retaliation for another nation’s tariffs.
Creates immediate effects on global prices and supply chains.
Examples
U.S.–China Trade War (2018–2020): The United States imposed tariffs on over $360 billion worth of Chinese imports, while China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. agricultural and industrial products.
EU–U.S. Steel and Aluminum Dispute (2018): The U.S. imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports, claiming national security reasons. The European Union retaliated with tariffs on American goods like motorcycles and whiskey.
Impact
Tariff-based wars often lead to:
Increased consumer prices.
Disrupted supply chains.
Decreased global trade volumes.
Shifts in investment and manufacturing to non-tariff countries.
2. Non-Tariff Barrier Trade Wars
Definition
A non-tariff trade war uses regulatory restrictions instead of tariffs to limit trade. These may include import quotas, licensing requirements, product standards, or environmental regulations that disadvantage foreign companies.
Characteristics
Harder to identify and measure than tariffs.
Often justified as “safety” or “environmental” measures.
Can be used strategically to block competition.
Examples
Japan vs. U.S. Auto Disputes (1980s): Japan used strict safety and emissions standards to limit American car imports.
European Union’s Agricultural Rules: The EU’s regulations on genetically modified foods and pesticide use often act as barriers against U.S. agricultural exports.
Impact
Creates uncertainty for exporters.
Increases compliance costs.
Favors domestic industries under the guise of regulation.
3. Currency Manipulation and Exchange Rate Wars
Definition
Currency wars, also known as competitive devaluation, occur when countries intentionally devalue their currencies to make exports cheaper and imports more expensive, thus improving their trade balance.
Characteristics
Typically involves central banks or monetary authorities.
May lead to inflation or financial instability.
Can escalate into broader economic and geopolitical conflict.
Examples
China’s Yuan Policy (2000s): The U.S. accused China of keeping its currency artificially low to boost exports.
Global “Currency War” of 2010: Countries like Japan and Brazil intervened in foreign exchange markets to weaken their currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing.
Impact
Encourages retaliatory devaluations.
Destabilizes global currency markets.
Reduces investor confidence.
May trigger capital flight from emerging markets.
4. Technology and Digital Trade Wars
Definition
In the 21st century, technology trade wars have emerged as a new front in global economic competition. These involve restrictions on data, technology exports, intellectual property rights, and the dominance of tech giants.
Characteristics
Focuses on control of strategic technologies like semiconductors, AI, and 5G.
Often framed as national security or data protection issues.
Targets specific companies rather than entire industries.
Examples
U.S.–China Tech Conflict: The U.S. restricted companies like Huawei and ZTE from accessing American technologies, citing security concerns. It also banned chip exports to China for advanced computing.
EU Digital Services Act (DSA): The European Union has imposed strict digital market regulations, often seen as targeting U.S. tech firms such as Google, Meta, and Amazon.
Impact
Fragmentation of global technology supply chains.
Slower innovation due to reduced collaboration.
Strategic decoupling between the U.S. and China in the semiconductor and AI sectors.
5. Resource and Commodity Trade Wars
Definition
These wars focus on critical natural resources—such as oil, gas, rare earth metals, or food—used as economic or political leverage.
Characteristics
Resource-rich nations restrict exports to gain political influence.
Import-dependent countries seek diversification or self-sufficiency.
Often intertwined with geopolitical tensions.
Examples
OPEC Oil Embargo (1973): Arab nations cut oil exports to the U.S. and other Western countries supporting Israel, leading to a global energy crisis.
China’s Rare Earth Export Controls (2010): China restricted exports of rare earth minerals crucial for electronics, targeting Japan after a territorial dispute.
Russia–Europe Gas Conflict (2022): Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe, triggering an energy crisis and forcing European nations to find alternatives.
Impact
Sharp commodity price fluctuations.
Inflationary pressures globally.
Strategic realignments in energy and resource supply chains.
6. Agricultural and Food Trade Wars
Definition
Agricultural trade wars arise when countries impose restrictions or subsidies on food and farm products to protect domestic farmers or retaliate against other nations’ policies.
Characteristics
Often involves perishable goods like grains, meat, and dairy.
Highly political due to its effect on farmers and food security.
Influenced by health, safety, and environmental standards.
Examples
U.S.–EU Beef Hormone Dispute: The EU banned beef treated with growth hormones, while the U.S. claimed this violated World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
India’s Rice and Wheat Export Bans (2022–2024): India limited exports to control domestic prices, impacting global food markets.
U.S.–China Agricultural Tariffs: China imposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans during the 2018 trade war, hurting American farmers.
Impact
Global food price volatility.
Disruption of agricultural supply chains.
Rising risk of food insecurity in developing nations.
7. Sanctions and Trade Embargoes
Definition
Trade sanctions and embargoes are political tools where nations restrict trade with specific countries to pressure them into policy changes. These are often unilateral or coalition-based rather than purely economic measures.
Characteristics
Used as instruments of foreign policy.
Target sectors like defense, energy, or finance.
Can be partial (targeted sanctions) or complete (full embargo).
Examples
U.S. Sanctions on Iran: Targeted Iran’s oil exports and financial transactions to curb its nuclear program.
Western Sanctions on Russia (2022): Following the invasion of Ukraine, Western nations imposed sweeping sanctions on Russian banks, oil companies, and oligarchs.
Cuba Embargo: The U.S. trade embargo on Cuba, in place since the 1960s, remains one of the longest-running in history.
Impact
Severe economic damage to targeted countries.
Global supply chain disruptions.
Emergence of black markets and sanction evasion networks.
8. Subsidy and Dumping Wars
Definition
Subsidy wars occur when governments financially support domestic industries to make their products cheaper internationally. Dumping happens when a country exports goods at below-market prices to gain unfair advantage.
Characteristics
Violates fair trade principles under WTO rules.
Leads to retaliatory tariffs and anti-dumping duties.
Common in sectors like steel, solar panels, and agriculture.
Examples
China’s Steel and Solar Subsidies: China has been accused by the U.S. and EU of subsidizing its steel and solar industries, flooding global markets.
Boeing vs. Airbus Dispute: The U.S. and EU accused each other of illegally subsidizing their aerospace giants, leading to WTO arbitration.
Impact
Market distortions and overcapacity.
Trade tensions within global manufacturing networks.
Long-term damage to fair competition.
9. Digital and Data Sovereignty Trade Wars
Definition
Digital trade wars revolve around data localization, privacy laws, and control over digital infrastructure. Governments use these measures to assert sovereignty over cyberspace and digital economies.
Characteristics
Focuses on control of citizens’ data and digital ecosystems.
Involves laws restricting cross-border data flows.
Part of broader efforts to reduce dependency on foreign technology.
Examples
EU’s GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation): Imposes strict data rules affecting U.S. tech companies operating in Europe.
India’s Data Localization Policy: Requires foreign companies to store user data locally, creating tensions with the U.S. tech industry.
China’s Cybersecurity Law: Restricts foreign companies’ access to Chinese digital markets.
Impact
Fragmentation of the global internet (“splinternet”).
Rising compliance costs for tech companies.
Reduced cross-border digital innovation.
10. Environmental and Green Trade Wars
Definition
As nations transition toward sustainable economies, green trade wars arise when environmental policies create new trade barriers or advantages.
Characteristics
Based on carbon emissions, climate regulations, and renewable technologies.
Can penalize “dirty” industries or reward green production.
Intersects with industrial and climate policy.
Examples
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Imposes tariffs on imports from countries with weaker climate regulations.
U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (2022): Offers subsidies for domestic clean energy industries, criticized by the EU as protectionist.
China’s Solar Dominance: Accusations of unfair advantages in solar manufacturing due to state subsidies.
Impact
Reshapes global energy and industrial competition.
Encourages climate-friendly innovation.
Risk of conflict between developed and developing nations over “green protectionism.”
Conclusion
Global trade wars have evolved from simple tariff disputes to multifaceted economic conflicts involving technology, digital data, energy, and environmental policy. Each type—whether tariff-based, technological, or green—reflects deeper struggles for economic dominance, national security, and strategic autonomy.
While trade wars may provide short-term domestic protection, they often harm global growth, increase inflation, and reduce consumer welfare. Modern economies are too interconnected for isolationist strategies to succeed without consequences. The challenge for policymakers lies in balancing national interests with global cooperation—ensuring that competition fosters innovation rather than conflict.
Ultimately, understanding the types of global trade wars helps policymakers, investors, and citizens grasp how economic rivalries shape the future of globalization, technology, and international relations.
TRADE-WAR
Global Calm, Fiscal Storm: The Yen's Challenge?The USD/JPY currency pair has recently experienced a notable surge, driving the Japanese Yen to its weakest level against the US Dollar in a month. This appreciation primarily stems from a significant improvement in global risk sentiment, sparked by a breakthrough trade agreement between the United States and China. This deal, aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, has bolstered investor confidence and diminished the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Adding to the dollar's strength is the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance, signaling no immediate plans for interest rate cuts and reinforcing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets amidst easing concerns about a US recession.
Simultaneously, internal economic pressures in Japan significantly weigh on the Yen. The nation's public debt has reached an unprecedented high, driven by persistent increases in defense spending and social welfare costs due to an aging population. Government subsidies for energy bills and the need to issue more bonds to cover rising expenditures exacerbate this fiscal strain. This challenging domestic backdrop contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's position, creating a widening divergence in monetary policy outlooks that favors the US Dollar through yield differentials, despite the Bank of Japan's cautious consideration of future rate adjustments.
Furthermore, reducing global geopolitical tensions has contributed to the shift away from safe-haven currencies. Recent ceasefires and prospects for diplomatic talks in key conflict areas have encouraged a "risk-on" environment in financial markets. This increased appetite for riskier assets directly reduces demand for the Japanese Yen, amplifying the impact of fundamental economic factors and monetary policy divergence on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The pair's trajectory remains subject to evolving global dynamics, upcoming economic data releases, and central bank communications.
US-China Rift: India's Golden Hour?Heightened trade tensions between the United States and China, characterized by substantial US tariffs on Chinese goods, inadvertently create a favorable environment for India. The significant difference in tariff rates—considerably lower for Indian imports than Chinese ones—positions India as an attractive alternative manufacturing base for corporations seeking to mitigate costs and geopolitical risks when supplying the US market. This tariff advantage presents a unique strategic opening for the Indian economy.
Evidence of this shift is already apparent, with major players like Apple reportedly exploring increased iPhone imports from India and even accelerating shipments ahead of tariff deadlines. This trend extends beyond Apple, as other global electronics manufacturers, including Samsung and potentially even some Chinese firms, evaluate shifting production or export routes through India. Such moves stand to significantly bolster India's "Make in India" initiative and enhance its role within global electronics value chains.
The potential influx of manufacturing activity, investment, and exports translates into substantial tailwinds for India's benchmark Nifty 50 index. Increased economic growth, higher corporate earnings for constituent companies (especially in manufacturing and logistics), greater foreign investment, and positive market sentiment are all likely outcomes. However, realizing this potential requires India to address persistent challenges related to infrastructure, policy stability, and ease of doing business, while also navigating competition from other low-tariff nations and seeking favorable terms in ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
Temu's Price Magic: Shattered by Tariffs?PDD Holdings, the parent entity behind the popular e-commerce platform Temu, confronts a severe operational challenge following the recent imposition of stringent US tariffs targeting Chinese goods. These trade measures, particularly the dismantling of the "de minimis" rule for Chinese shipments, directly threaten the ultra-low-cost business model that fueled Temu's rapid expansion in the US market. The elimination of the previous $800 duty-free threshold for individual packages strikes at the core of Temu's logistical and pricing strategy.
The impact stems from newly enacted, exceptionally high tariffs on these formerly exempt low-value parcels. Reports indicate rates escalating to 90% of the item's value or a significant flat fee, effectively nullifying the cost advantages Temu leveraged by shipping directly from manufacturers in China. This fundamental shift disrupts the financial viability of Temu's model, which relied heavily on tariff-free access to deliver goods at minimal prices to American consumers.
Consequently, significant price increases for products sold on Temu appear almost inevitable as PDD Holdings grapples with these substantial new costs. While the company's official response is pending, economic pressures suggest consumers will likely absorb these charges, potentially eroding Temu's primary competitive advantage and slowing its growth momentum. PDD Holdings now faces the critical task of navigating this disrupted trade landscape and adapting its strategy to maintain its market position amidst heightened protectionism and geopolitical tension.
Will the Fear Gauge Flash Red?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's closely watched "fear gauge," is poised for a potential surge due to US President Donald Trump's assertive policy agenda. This article examines the confluence of factors, primarily Trump's planned tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions, that are likely to inject significant uncertainty into the financial markets. Historically, the VIX has proven to be a reliable indicator of investor anxiety, spiking during economic and political instability periods. The current climate, marked by a potential trade war and heightened international risks, suggests a strong likelihood of increased market volatility and a corresponding rise in the VIX.
President Trump's impending "Liberation Day" tariffs, set to target all countries with reciprocal duties, have already sparked considerable concern among economists and financial institutions. Experts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan predict that these tariffs will lead to higher inflation, slower economic growth, and an elevated risk of recession in the US. The sheer scale and breadth of these tariffs, affecting major trading partners and critical industries, create an environment of unpredictability that unsettles investors and compels them to seek protection against potential market downturns, a dynamic that typically drives the VIX upward.
Adding to the market's unease are the growing geopolitical fault lines involving the US and both China and Iran. Trade disputes and strategic rivalry with China, coupled with President Trump's confrontational stance and threats of military action against Iran over its nuclear program, contribute significantly to global instability. These high-stakes international situations, fraught with the potential for escalation, naturally trigger investor anxiety and a flight to safety, further fueling expectations of increased market volatility as measured by the VIX.
In conclusion, the combination of President Trump's aggressive trade policies and the mounting geopolitical risks presents a compelling case for a significant rise in the VIX. Market analysts have already observed this trend, and historical patterns during similar periods of uncertainty reinforce the expectation of heightened volatility. As investors grapple with the potential economic fallout from tariffs and the dangers of international conflicts, the VIX will likely serve as a crucial barometer, reflecting the increasing fear and uncertainty permeating the financial landscape.
15 December, the US will implement tariffs on $156B on ChinaTo offset the additional tariffs the CNY would have to depreciate - although the Chinese authorities have said that they won't pursue quantitative easing.
If there is a formal announcement to suspend or delay the tariffs, the market would expect a more positive risk reaction and that is currently being priced in. WIth the USDCNY trading around the 6.90 and below the 7.00 psychological level that was key back in the summer.
If Phase one of the deal does not pass and the tariffs go-ahead, we would expect the USDCNY to trade above the 7.100
My paradoxical impeachment trade deal tradeReasons for the paradox in this trade:
Trump's impeachment is uneventful at this moment in time
Yet this impeachment may cost him his re-election creating a possibility for easier trade negotiations
With AUD off to the highs especially with there being good data today, let's see how far this thing goes
AUDEURDespite the RBA setting a dovish when it comes to all things $AUD this spike in price action has caught my eye, enough for me to justify a pre-emptive move in the name of $AUD strength.
Trump's impeachment at the house will not have an impact because the senate where Republicans hold the majority will not vote against their own political leader (well at least that is what the general consensus is); however this does not make Trump look good in the public eye and with elections around the corner this threatens his re-election prospects.
Which is enough to garner a few smiles across the pacific in China, where a scenario of Trump not in office would surely improve Chinas seat at the table of negotiations.
Coffee is on a rise! It must be the caffeine I have just closed out a +8% trade and I am going long again.
The initial fundamentals where:
Brazillian drought
US-China trade war increasing agriculture exports out of Brazil
Weak $BRLUSD
Although some of these fundamentals are starting to wane, the technicals continue to show that Coffee has more to go
SPX, VIX and SKEWThe movement of the SPX are reflected in the VIX (volatility index) but the signal seem to arrive when the SPX index is already too advanced in the retracement. The SKEW signals earlier on. The signal from SKEW starts with lower lows, then the volatility increases and SPX dips.
Sell when the SKEW starts hitting lower highs, then BUY when the VIX index is peaking.
Bearish Idea on FTSE China A50 by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
We observe that price has bounced at the Daily Top level and was rejected strongly. We are waiting for a breakout of the Ascending Trendline to take short positions here. In the short term, the potential targets are the Support Zone, and the main ascending Trendline.
XRP/BTC trade warThis trade war seems to be going Chains way. But that can only be sustained for so long. Another super power is on its way.
Prepares a long waited strong move is on the horizon, as XRP ledge will convey the gold trade with GBI not BTC
Scan my profile for free XLM and 10k Zi CCO Airdrop
Nzd.Chf Buy zoneNZD fundamentally is pretty weak, with all 5 of its major trading partners facing some form of political/financial upheaval. This is important to know because NZD economy is compromised in large part of its exports. However, data has shown that New Zealand has been becoming a favorable investment due to its free market policies that have kept the financial sector pretty solid.
China's market, which is affecting NZD the most and is her main trading partner, gateway at Hong Kong has seen protest that have been slowly turning more ambitious. This has helped NZD turn south, as well as the Chinese yuan. However with all eyes on Hong Kong from the international community I truly hope China will play it safe and back off a bit for a while.
BTC - Short updatePlease see previous idea for in more in depth logic.
As kind of expected, the price reached and rejected off the 4.618 advancement.
From here, BTC has the potential of turning bullish again once the daily crosses over the 2/1 line. Potentially within a couple days from now.
That could cause it to make another run at breaking 14k
But until a breakout is confirmed, the trend suggests bull trapping be happening.
Good luck!
SPX to crest over 3k and then down3045 is the magic number. This represents a 2.618 advancement from the 2009 low.
The 4.618 is 3953 so good chance we see 2500 and even 2100 before we see 4000.
My prediction is as follows:
SPX reaches and breaches 3000. Maybe gets as high as 3150 before pull back begins.
Green box - 2870 or so is short target #1
From here we will need to see what the market looks like, but if the trade war hasn't yet been resolved, the yellow and orange boxes can come into play.
SP500 could see 3300 by late October and here's howIn this video, I explain the basics of using Fibonacci, time application and geometry to predict the future.
TLDR: SP500 will hit 3045 and while it could reject here, it looks quite bullish and 3307 is worth betting on.
The rising wedge will break and we could see a December style dip around late April, early May 2020.
Getting to 3300 could be a slow melt up over the next few months, with a total break down in trade negotiations being a possible/likely catalyst for the break down.
BTFD will work for as long as the market believes the Fed can engineer the economy.
BTC $7200 short targetVery short term, might reach for $11,284 again before retracing.
BTC's meteoric rise over 3 months was driven primarily by the US/China trade war.
Institutional money was pouring into BTC as a hedge against US/China trade war. (not because Wall Street has finally seen the light or whatever)
Immediately following announcement of the "truce" following the G20 meeting, Bitcoin has been in retreat.
Expect the retreat to slowly continue until there is a re-flare up of trade tensions or some sort of escalation. This is also the period where Altcoins should bloom.
Targets:
$9500 is a given (green trend line)
$8500 around July 21 could signal a short term reversal to $9700 before continuing lower.
$7200 target - .618 retace - Sometime during August or September 2019
Red box:
Late October 2019 through End of year:
4800-6200 (orange box) possible Trump's reelection odds look down a year ahead of the election.
$3k and below as some people have been calling for also becomes possible in this scenario.
But, Trump is almost certainly going to be re-elected and BTC will ultimately head to the moon as a result.
From there, it's only a question of when the trade war escalates into a shooting war.
China plays the long game, so my guess is they will attack US around 2022-2025.
Expect BTC to be over a million by then and the entire financial landscape forever changed.
AMD Bullish, Long, Fib+EW PredictionsrThis is not financial advise. For entertainment purposes only. MY OPINION
AMD has had some good news, and solid growth despite the trade war between US and China. Finding support at the .618 Fib retracement at the end of a rising wedge, especially to end the week or month, could spark a full breakout to the ATH of $47.50. However, when adjusted for inflation, that is $70.64 in today's USD. I'm setting next targets to watch between $36 and $42 if resistance is successfully broken here. Of course, this is all bearing that AMD continues to have few issues and the company stays profitable. Anything can happen over the course of a few years.
BTC update and the week to comeThis an update to my previous ideas:
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin Dominace
---------
So, either way, BTC will reach all positive targets, it's only a question of which path it takes.
The short path (above green arrow trend line) or the medium path (below green arrow).
Thick red line is the decision line and I'm quite confident BTC will at least reach this level ($9000-93xx).
Positive talks or tweets however will likely be what sends BTC to .382 ($8136).
From there - support levels become
$8100
$7200
$6200
In this path, wave 3 of the larger impulse wave (blue elliot) will begin upon one of those supports with $6200 being the most likely reversal point.
USA vs China / TRADE WAR $USDCNH ... Cup & Handle pattern right there in the bigger picture.
We then got a rising wedge shorter term. Why? Look at the #TradeWar and it makes perfect sense. Wait for confirmations and you got a safe setup right there ! The Trade War is going on and it´s getting harder and harder every week for both the USA and China. So guess where this pair might go?
Look at the very least for a 1:1 ratio or much more.
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